Do we need a theory of demographic transition?

The process of transition in which a population's rate of natural increase changes from low to high to low is familiar yet a widely accepted theory has not been produced. This paper shows that the search for a general transition theory is ill-advised. This theory would contain laws that can be used: 1) in explaining changes in population growth rates in today's slow-growing populations, 2) in predictions of current and future changes in today's rapidly-growing populations, and 3) in formulating population control policies where fertility levels are high. The search for a general theory which can explain, predict, and control demographic transition is premised on the assumption that 1 entity, called demographic transition, is the object of these 3 uses. The attempt to encompass these 3 uses by a single theory has made each more difficult than it might otherwise be and has contributed to a serious schism within population studies between medical and behavioral approaches. Some ways in which future work on demographic transition can be made more productive are: 1) the formulation of population control policies for less developed countries, the prediction of population changes in those countries, and the explanation of historical trends, which are better treated as separate tasks; 2) elements of medical and behavioral approaches require reintegration; 3) mortality decline appears to be only a highly indirect source of fertility decline; 4) neither development, modernization, nor urbanization appear to be theoretically significant sources of fertility decline; and 5) neither crude birthrates nor fertility levels appear to be theoretically significant dependent variables.     

The perceived importance of family‐friendly policies to childbirth decision among Hong Kong women

Wong C‐K, Tang K‐L, Ye S. The perceived importance of family‐friendly policies to childbirth decision among Hong Kong women Int J Soc Welfare 2011: 20: 381–392 © 2010 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. Declining fertility is a problem in many advanced industrialised countries, calling for government action. While positive findings have been established between family policies and fertility levels in European countries, empirical studies on family‐friendly policies and their impact on fertility levels have been few and far between in East Asia. Based on a random telephone survey of 645 young women, this study examined the perceived importance of family‐friendly policies to childbirth among Hong Kong women of childbearing age. Also investigated was whether public policies could have an impact on the decision to have a child. The findings give support to both the risk‐society theory and the rationality theory; family‐friendly policies such as tax credits, extended childcare and flexitime enhance the risk management capacity of women and reduce the cost of child rearing. The study also found that demographic factors such as age, education, and having children or not are significant to the intent to bear children.     

Successful yet insufficient: German policies for higher employment rates among older age groups

In recent years among the OECD countries, Germany has witnessed the largest increase in the employment rates of older people. This increase, and general German employment rates, are associated with both supply side measures in the fields of pensions and unemployment policies and employment promotion policies. Yet, supply side measures and Germany's shift from conservative towards liberal policy goals and policies in the case of older workers have resulted in economic inequality. These policies could be complemented by pro‐employability measures in order to become fully effective. This article describes recent policy reforms in the main policy fields of retirement, unemployment, and employment promotion, considers their effects on employment and inequality, and offers reform suggestions to raise further older worker employment rates without increasing inequality.     

How Studies of the Educational Progression of Minority Children Are Affecting Education Policy in Denmark

Over the past decade, the number of ethnic minorities in Denmark has increased rapidly, now accounting for over 8 per cent of the total population. This paper presents results from a number of recent studies regarding the educational choices of minority children from less developed countries. An important social concern is that the educational attainment of these children is much lower than among native Danes. The studies show that that a main reason for the education gap is very high dropout rates from vocational schools among minority children and that inadequate Danish language proficiency of immigrants, parents and their children, is an important reason for the high dropout rates, as are inadequate educational preparedness from grade school and insufficient apprenticeship positions available for minority youth. Socio‐economic background, however, has relatively little effect. Recent policy changes to reduce dropout rates from vocational schools are reviewed and additional policy interventions are proposed.     

Can increased educational attainment explain declining Indigenous fertility?

Prior research shows that Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women are more likely to have children and have more children, on average, than non-Indigenous women. However, like those of the total Australian population, fertility rates of Indigenous women have been declining since the 1970s. The decline has been more significant in recent years. Between 2006 and 2016, an increasing proportion of Indigenous women postponed childbirth from their teens into their 20s and 30s, leading women to have fewer children over their lifetimes. During the same period, there was a rapid increase in educational attainment among the Indigenous population. This paper examines educational gradients in fertility among Indigenous women and whether the observed fertility decline is linked with the increased educational attainment. Using data from the 2006, 2011 and 2016 Australian Census of Population and Housing and applying a shift-share decomposition analysis, we find that education has been a big driver of falling fertility rates in non-remote areas. In remote areas, education has had a much smaller effect (except for youngest women).     

State Felon Disenfranchisement Policy

Objective . Felon disenfranchisement policies impose restrictions on a felon's right to vote. Since these policies disproportionately affect minority citizens, legal scholars and others argue that felon disenfranchisement is a result of racial politics, aimed primarily at undermining the electoral power of black and Latino citizens. This study evaluates these claims in a rigorous empirical analysis. Methods . The study uses cross-sectional data on current state felon disenfranchisement policies in an order probit regression analysis to examine race-based explanations in light of competing hypotheses. Results . The findings demonstrate that the size of the minority population, parity in incarceration rates, and the degree of legislative professionalism are the primary explanatory factors of this policy. Conclusions . Given the continued rise in minority incarceration rates relative to those for whites and the link between the racial composition of a state and the severity of felon disenfranchisement laws, the study raises important questions regarding the future of minority participation in the democratic process.     

The impact of policy measures and coaching on the availability and accessibility of early child care: A longitudinal study

We conducted a study of changes in the availability, accessibility and enrolment of children from low‐income, single‐parent and ethnic minority families in early child care centres. The study was carried out in Brussels which offers unique possibilities to study accessibility in a context in which quality and costs are controlled across centres. A survey on access policies in 89 day care centres, and on 150 mothers regarding their search process, was complemented by two focus groups attended by centre directors. The results were compared with data from a similar study we conducted in 2005. The results show that while inequality in availability has remained, centre directors' awareness of social priority criteria has changed, resulting in a significant increase in the enrolment of children from single‐parent and ethnic minority families, and – to a lesser extent – an increase in the enrolment of children from low‐income families. The results support the hypothesis that policy measures, combined with support, can influence inequalities in enrolment rates.     

Individually-Tailored Support for Ethnically-Diverse Caregivers: Enhancing Our Understanding of What Is Needed and What Works

Family caregivers play a crucial role in maintaining older adults in the community, often at great cost to themselves. We discuss a program serving ethnically-diverse caregivers in New York, offering, on average, 11 case-management hr per client. Participants reported statistically significantly reduced stress and burden. Respite was the most requested service, belying an assumption underlying policies and services that families, particularly among minority populations, can and will care for their older members. Thus, services must be carefully tailored to meet actual caregiver needs, including provision of alternatives that reduce caregiver involvement. We discuss practice and policy implications.     

北京市独生子女生育意愿调查分析

本研究结合 2 0 0 2年“北京市个人生育意愿问卷调查” ,推算目前我市累计出生的独生子女总量与结构 ,描述独生子女生育观念变化的现状 ,分析形成独生子女生育意愿的主要因素。探讨他们在生育子女数量、性别偏好、婚育时间上的选择倾向 ,以及将对北京市人口发展规模所构成的影响。     

State Policy Choices and Responsiveness of the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families Program During the Great Recession

ABSTRACT

The Great Recession that officially began in December 2007 and ended in June 2009 was the most severe recession since the Depression of the 1930s. To accurately explain the number of families and children receiving cash assistance from Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF) during the 2007 recession, it is important to capture state-level variations in recessionary periods, economies, and TANF policies. This study breaks ground by using multiple regression to explain the number of families enrolled in the TANF program when the TANF caseload peaked in each of the 51 jurisdictions’ recessions as a function of their severe TANF policies while controlling for benefit levels, unemployment rates, and size of populations. Key findings strongly suggest that all else constant, TANF did not grow as much as it would have in the 2007 recession partially due to shorter lifetime limits (less than 60 months) or temporary time limits, multiple severe policies, or benefit cuts witnessed in some states. This study is important to policy makers and academics concerned with the effect of severe policies on the enrollment of needy families with children in the TANF program. The federal government should encourage states to relax some of their requirements during recessions. Future research should examine the consequences of severe TANF policies on the well-being of families with children during recessions.     

The relationship between ethnicity and fertility in New Zealand

While there is a global shift towards smaller families, some groups maintain relatively high fertility rates. The 2013 New Zealand census data were used to investigate the nature of fertility between ethnicities in New Zealand. The NZ Deprivation Index 2013 was used as a measure of socioeconomic status to determine the relationships with fertility. The results mirror research outside of New Zealand in that socioeconomic status is inversely correlated to fertility. Using crude average fertility rates, sole-ethnicity Pasifika and Māori ethnic groups still have substantially higher fertility than sole-ethnicity Europeans and Asians ethnic groups, even when simultaneously accounting for age, socioeconomic status, education, and religious affiliation. Christians have more children than individuals reportedly without any religion, and fertility rates drop on average for mothers who have higher formal qualifications. Our findings suggest that cultural, or other ethnic-specific factors differentially affect fertility for Māori, Pasifika, New Zealand European, and Asians as aggregated ethnic categories, respectively.     

An Analysis of Toxicology and Medical Journal Conflict-of-Interest Polices

Basic science and medical journals are increasingly requiring authors to disclose financial interests they have in the subject matter of contributed articles and letters. A comparison of journal conflict-of-interest (COI) policies can provide insight into published reports of low compliance rates and inconsistencies in disclosures by the same author found in different journals. The objective of this article is to compare the criteria, specificity, and scope of COI polices in toxicology and medical journals. We studied the COI policies of 47 toxicology and 180 medical journals catalogued in Ulrich's International Periodicals Directory for criteria of competing interests, types of submissions covered, monetary or time thresholds for reporting, and penalties for violations. Indicators were constructed for rating policy specificity, author discretion, and policy scope.

Written COI policies were found in 87% if the toxicology and 84% of the medical journals; 15% and 28% of the toxicology and medical journals, respectively, were explicit about the type of content covered by the policy; 20% and 29%, respectively, included a monetary threshold for reporting purposes; the level of author discretion for reporting COIs was found to be high in 46% of the toxicology and 41% of the medical journals respectively. The level of specificity for more than 75% of the written journal COI policies for both fields was minimal or practically nil, and the scope of more than 80% of the policies was minimal to narrow. Lack of specificity, high author discretion, and restricted scope were found to be prevalent among COI policies of toxicology and medical journals.     

An Exploratory Study of Self-Neglectful Elderly

This paper describes and contrasts the characteristics of 227 elders who were reportedly competent but self-neglectful. The sample was found to be disproportionately aged and to have higher rates of disabling conditions such as Alzheimer's or other related dementias and alcoholism when compared with the general older population. When contrasted with a sample of elderly who had been maltreated, self-neglectful elders were found more likely to be male and disabled. Services which were offered to self-neglectful elderly were also examined. The author recommends that the type as well as the number of services being offered to self-neglectful elderly be further investigated.     

Explaining Restrictive TANF Policies: Group Threat Hypothesis and State Economy Conditions

ABSTRACT

This study examined whether TANF policies' restrictiveness is related to states' racial composition and economic conditions. The data were extracted from various reports dated 2000–2014. Results from generalized least squares random-effects modeling showed the number of restrictive TANF policies to be associated positively with larger populations of Hispanic individuals and associated negatively with larger populations of African American individuals. No association was found between policies' restrictiveness and “other” minority population, nor between restrictiveness and either poverty or unemployment. One conclusion suggested by the analysis is that restrictive TANF policies result from dramatic increases in the Hispanic population that trigger the dominant group's resentment of ethnic minorities. Several policy implications are stated.     

Child Poverty in Rural China: Multidimensional Perspective

This paper describes a pilot study on child multidimensional poverty in rural China by introducing the Alkire–Foster method based on survey data collected from five provinces/autonomous regions. Results showed that the headcount ratio of child multidimensional poverty was 14.29%. On average, multidimensionally poor children were deprived in 37.62% of all the dimensions, and their adjusted headcount ratio (multidimensional poverty) index was 0.054. Health was the most deprived dimension, followed by the subsistence and participation dimensions. Disabled children, children influenced by HIV/AIDS, and ethnic minority children were severely deprived. This study not only adds to the current literature on child poverty in China, but also provides policy suggestions for future action plans.     

Coping with a First Heart Attack

The stressful effects of both poverty and racism contribute to the fact that heart disease is a leading cause of death for poor and minority populations. In spite of this, there is an absence of reported psychosocial interventions with these vulnerable populations. This paper describes a structured group treatment model based on cognitive-behavioral interventions for lower SES Anglo, Black, and Hispanic patients who have had a heart attack. The rationale for using this approach is developed through a review of the literature, and the treatment strategy is described in some detail.     

Fertility implications of nuptiality patterns in South Asia

The author presents an overview of nuptiality in South Asia, with particular reference to India and Bangladesh, and of the effect of nuptiality on fertility. Data are from censuses and national surveys. The characteristics of nuptiality over the past century, including early age at marriage, the large number of widows, and the universality of marriage, are discussed. Exceptions to the general patterns observed, such as Sri Lanka and Kerala, are identified, and the reasons for decreases in fertility in Kerala are analyzed     

Asylum, children's rights and social work

Although it is only a minority of displaced and persecuted people globally who seek refuge in ‘Western’ countries, they meet an increasingly hostile reception. This paper focuses on the situation facing children seeking asylum with or without their families in Britain and Australia, and the implications for children's rights and for social work. The policy background and its racist foundations in both countries are outlined. Despite geopolitical differences, there are unnerving parallels. Legislative changes and policy complexity signal increasingly punitive attitudes towards asylum seekers. The situation of children and families in the community is discussed in terms of the exclusion of asylum seekers from basic rights, and specific issues for separated children. Even more damaging is the incarceration of children and families in detention centres, and the emerging research is explored. In both countries there is widespread flouting of children's rights, and children also feature as pawns in ideological contests. However, they also act autonomously and illustrate an inclusive model of citizenship. The role of social workers in the statutory and voluntary sectors is considered, and the paper concludes with a discussion of the challenges for social work of avoiding collusion with repressive policies and actively promoting human rights.     

A racial comparison of Family Group Decision Making in the USA1

This study examined Family Group Decision Making (FGDM) among a nationally representative sample of African‐American and White children investigated for maltreatment in the US. While FGDM was developed for work with ethnic minority families, there is no research on how this is being carried out in the US, where African‐American children are overrepresented in child welfare services. The study views racial differences in child, caregiver and maltreatment characteristics related to FGDM; composition of FGDM meetings; service referrals and receipt; and service satisfaction. Data are from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well‐being (NSCAW), a study of 5501 children ages 0–14. Current analyses include African‐American and White children (n= 4129). Stratified, bivariate and multivariate regression analyses were used. Results showed that while race was not related FGDM receipt, different characteristics lead to FGDM among African‐American and White families. Surprisingly, caregivers report feeling no more involved in decision‐making in association with FGDM. FGDM is provided at low rates overall (10%) and less frequently among White caseworkers. Child access to mental health services increases in relation to FGDM. Implications are discussed.