基于LMDI的我国工业能源强度变动的因素分解——对我国1994-2007年工业部门数据的实证分析

深入分析我国工业能源消费量变化的趋势及其影响因素,找出降低工业能源强度的措施,对实现全国节能减排具有很强的现实意义。本文将部门内能源消费结构效应纳入分析框架,运用对数平均Divisia指数分解法,对我国1994-2007年间工业能源消耗强度的影响因素进行分解。     

广东省经济结构与能源强度关系研究

本文在分析结构分解分析法原理的基础上,运用结构分解分析法对广东省经济结构与能源消费的关系进行研究,研究结果表明:结构变动在产业层次上对能源强度变化的起到一定的推动作用,而能源效率的提高则是广东能源强度下降的主要动力,第二产业是推动能源强度变化的主导动力。     

我国交通运输业能源强度影响因素研究

为深入研究我国交通运输业能源强度居高不下的原因,本文分别利用LMDI和Refined Laspeyres指数分解法和宏观VAR计量模型,从内部和外部两个角度,对1985～2008年我国交通运输业能源强度的变动原因进行了实证分析,结果表明,交通运输业内部的结构变化和各交通子方式能源效率波动共同导致了整体行业能源强度的偏高,但效率因素的贡献度更大;就外部宏观经济因素而言,交通基础设施的发达有助于降低能源强度,但城市化进程却提高了能源强度,能源价格的上涨也未能起到降低交通运输业能源强度的作用.     

能源经济效率、能源环境绩效与区域经济增长

以资本、劳动和能源作为投入变量,以各省份GDP为期望产出变量,以二氧化碳排放量为非期望产出变量,在全要素生产理论框架下,基于DEA方法定义能源利用的经济效率和能源利用的环境绩效两类能源效率指数;运用非径向、非角度的SBM模型测算2000年至2010年中国各省份的能源经济效率和能源环境绩效及其分解指数,分析其演变规律与地区差异性;基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论实证分析中国能源经济效率和能源环境绩效及其分解指数与区域经济增长之间的关系.研究结果表明,样本期内,中国能源经济效率和能源环境绩效整体水平均较低,地区差异明显,节能减排潜力巨大;能源经济效率和能源环境绩效及其分解指数与经济增长之间存在倒U形或U形曲线关系;产业结构、人口密度、能源结构和外资利用对能源经济效率和能源环境绩效均有显著影响,但是影响机制存在差异.     

基于非参数投入前沿面的Malmquist生产率指数研究

本文采用生产前沿面理论及其非参数方法,对假定产出确定条件下投入压缩的生产率指数──基于投入前沿面的Malmquist生产率指数进行了理论与测度方法研究。通过规模收益不变且要素自由(C,S)前沿面条件下的技术效率、距离函数及其非参数模型的分析,本文给出了基于非参数(C,S)投入前沿面的Malmquist生产率指数的非参数测度模型,并从技术变化和资源配置效率变化两个方面进行了分解。     

我国能源效率变化趋势及调整政策——基于产业结构重型化视角的实证分析

运用计量分析方法分析了我国能源效率变化的原因和发展趋势,并给出了相关的建议.分析了工业化国家能源效率变化规律及波动原因;在总结国内研究现状的基础上,运用对数平均D氏指数方法分析了我国能源效率的变化原因,认为产业结构变化是2000年后我国能源效率下降的主要原因;运用误差修正模型技术分析了产业结构日益重型化条件下我国能源效率的变化趋势,并得出了随着产业结构重型化的形成和发展我国能源效率会不断降低的结论;最后,从改变经济结构标准、完善能源价格体系和加快发展现代服务业等方面分析了降低能源消耗、提高能源效率的途径.     

区域市场整合与对外直接投资的逆向溢出效应——来自中国省级行政区的经验证据

本文在区域市场整合的制度背景下探讨对外直接投资(ODI)对母国经济增长的逆向溢出效应。首先,以新增长理论为基础,建立全要素生产率(TFP)内生于ODI和市场整合程度的理论模型;其次,利用中国2003-2012年的省际面板数据进行实证分析;最后,通过DEA-Malmquist指数将TFP分解为技术水平变化、资源配置效率变化和规模效率变化三部分,揭示溢出效应的传导途径。研究表明:区域市场整合与ODI在促进技术进步方面具有显著的替代效应、在优化资源配置方面具有显著的互补效应、在实现规模经济方面不存在显著作用,三方面合成之后二者对TFP的影响表现出显著的替代效应。为了保证结论的可靠性,本文考虑了ODI的内生性,对结果进行了稳健性检验,比较了不同类别样本中ODI的边际效应。     

能源价格对制造业能源强度调节效应的实证研究

能耗过高影响中国制造业的可持续发展,能源价格是市场体制中调节能源强度的重要因素和手段.引入价格作为调节变量,研究其对于技术进步和能源消费结构对行业能源强度影响的调节效应.运用1995年～2005年的数据,采用层次回归法对制造业24个重要行业的能源价格与能源强度的关系进行实证研究.结果表明,对大多数行业,能源价格的提升并未明显降低能源强度,能源价格对于技术进步对能源强度影响的调节效应不显著,能源价格的调节效应更多地表现为促进能源消费结构转化来降低行业能源强度.     

国际产业转移技术溢出效应的实证研究:以中国为例

通过对我国29个省1994-2004年的劳动生产率进行了三重分解后,将我国的劳动生产率指数分解为技术效率变化、技术进步变化和资本深化变化这三项指标,并分别将这三项指标序列与我国各省1994-2004年的FDI数据进行了协整检验,最终得出国际产业转移的技术溢出效应主要通过两个途径来实现:即通过促进我国技术进步和资本深化来提高我国的劳动生产率。     

中俄油气资源合作经济效应的实证研究

探讨中俄油气资源领域的合作,通过构建中俄能源合作新指数ECIN来评估两国油气资源合作的经济效益,利用1992年到2012年的相关数据建立向量自回归模型VAR分析能源合作新指数ECIN、两国的GDP和双边贸易额之间的关系并得出结论,中俄两国能源贸易合作与两国的GDP密切相关,且能源贸易合作新指数对中国的经济效应更大,从而论证了加强中俄油气资源合作的重要性。     

基于I-O与SVAR模型的制造业完全能耗强度影响因素研究

改革开放以来,制造业完全能耗强度尽管总体呈下降趋势,但与发达国家相比,仍处于高位。本文考虑了制造业隐含能源消耗,基于投入产出法构建了制造业完全能耗强度测度公式,并基于WSR方法论构建了制造业完全能耗强度影响因素体系,运用SVAR模型探究1980-2016年各因素对制造业完全能耗强度的影响规律。结果表明,在短期内,企业规模、产业结构、能源价格、技术进步、FDI等对制造业完全能耗强度影响程度相对较大。企业平均规模与重工业占比、技术进步率上升,制造业完全能耗强度下降;而能源价格、FDI上升,制造业完全能耗强度上升。中长期内,企业规模、产权结构、能源价格、产业结构、技术进步等对制造业完全能耗强度影响程度相对较大。能源价格、国有企业占比、技术进步率上升,制造业完全能耗强度先降后升;企业平均规模、重工业占比上升,制造业完全能耗强度先升后降。适度扩大企业规模,合理调控能源价格,推进产权结构多元化等对降低制造业完全能耗强度贡献相对突出。     

Determinants of Union Membership: A Review

The recent drastic decline in trade union membership levels in most Western countries has led to renewed interest in the factors which influence the decision of employees to join unions. This paper discusses the strengths and weaknesses of the three main approaches: structural determinism, individual-level analysis, and conceptual models of trade union joining behaviour. Structural determinism is discussed in the context of the Bainian model and its various extensions. In contrast, the diverse findings in the field of individual-union joining behaviour is assessed by drawing on a comprehensive table comprising all variables examined in this area. The first two sections focus exclusively on trade union joining behaviour as the independent variable whereas the third part of the paper uses an individuals' voting behaviour in the USA. This focus was necessary due to the lack of causal models using union joining behaviour as their dependent variable. The author selects two of the most advanced models for a detailed analysis, and relates the findings to the preceding sections. It is the objective of the paper to critically evaluate the three approaches and their contributions towards understanding this complex field of research.     

Conceptualizing Structurable Tasks in the Development of Knowledge-Based Systems*

Conventional approaches to knowledge-based system (KBS) development are not appropriate for building KBSs when the application task is structurable (i.e., exhibits a certain degree of ill structure). Building a KBS for structurable tasks requires an understanding of the problem-solving strategies used by an expert to manage the ill structure, while at the same time relying on domain theories to understand the structured parts of the task. This paper presents a methodology for developing a knowledge model for structurable tasks during the conceptualization stage of KBS development. This is equivalent to building a logical model for design during the development of conventional information systems. The methodology relies on prior research on the decomposition and characterization of a task based on its various attributes. The paper also illustrates the use of the methodology in the case of KBS development for financial hedging. The paper concludes with some observations about the potential impact of this methodology on other stages in the KBS development process.     

Environmental Factors,Managerial Processes,and Information Technology Investment Strategies

Although significant research attention has been directed at understanding the value of information technology (IT) investments for firms, very little attention has been paid to understand the IT investment behavior of firms. This article seeks to fill this void. We introduce the concept of IT investment strategy, defined by dimensions of intensity and proactiveness, to characterize the IT investment behavior of firms. Synthesizing the environmental deterministic and strategic choice perspectives of a firm's strategic decision making, we examine the effects of environmental factors, managerial processes, and the interplay between them on IT investment strategy. Specifically, we examine the impact of environmental factors such as industry clockspeed and information intensity on IT investment strategy. We also incorporate the strategic choice perspective to argue that managerial processes such as frequent chief executive officer—chief information officer communications and collective information systems planning play a critical role in shaping the firm's IT investment strategy. The empirical results show that the environmental variables are related to IT investment strategy. Besides, managerial processes serve as a means to understand the environment and thus moderate the relationships between the environmental variables and the various facets of IT investment strategy. The conceptualization of IT investment strategy and the focus on both environmental determinism and strategic choice should enrich our understanding of firms’ IT investing behavior.     

能源回弹效应测算的改进模型及其实证研究

技术进步引致的能源回弹效应的存在使传统能源效率提高的政策措施受到严峻挑战,回弹效应的测算也随之成为关注的焦点。针对现有文献研究的缺憾,引入影响能源效率的产业结构调整因素,基于对数平均迪氏指数法量化技术进步对能源效率的影响作用,进而构建回弹效应测算的改进模型。对中国宏观经济层面能源回弹效应的实证研究表明,技术进步对能源效率的影响是一个动态变化的过程;回弹效应在不同的时间段有不同程度的波动,并显示出下降的趋势。     

Lean Six Sigma approach in an Indian auto ancillary conglomerate: a case study

The purpose of this article is to illustrate how Lean Six Sigma (LSS) methodology was applied to an Auto ancillary conglomerate in India for achieving operational excellence. The research reported in this paper is based on a case study carried out using LSS methodology in improving yield of a semi-automated transfer line process of the organisation. The root causes for the problem were identified and validated through data based analysis from LSS tool box, at different stages in the study. The application of LSS methodology resulted in reduction of drilling defects while machining injector bodies and reduced the Defects Per Million Opportunities from 38,000 to 5600. The application of this methodology had a significant financial impact (saving of about INR 1.4 million per annum) on the bottom-line of the company.     

基于投入产出非线性优化的制造业完全能耗强度情景分析

当前,环境污染仍为中国最突出的问题之一,而降低制造业完全能耗强度是减少消耗及污染的重要途径。本文基于投入产出非线性优化理论,以制造业完全能耗强度最小为目标,并以18个行业最终需求为决策变量,构建了一个完全能耗强度非线性优化模型,特引入了进出口系数等约束条件,并基于已有投入产出表等数据,预测调整模型的相关系数。在此基础上,设计了三个方案与两个情景,并运用粒子群算法求解模型。结果表明:2015年中国制造业完全能耗强度最小值区间为0.7823-0.9048tce/万元,相比2010年,下降率区间为8.9%-21.31%。在高方案情景2下,可实现制造业完全能耗强度降低20%的目标。为实现该目标,应促进中低能耗制造业发展、降低高能耗制造业的完全能耗量、适当提高消费和进口系数并降低投资和出口系数。本文既有利于政府部门制定科学系统的节能减排政策,也有利于深化能源经济与管理理论。     

收益公布效应的实证研究

股票市场的有效性研究是金融经济学的一个重要基础 .国外对此作了广泛深入的研究 ,其中事件研究方法是一个重要的方法 ,其普遍适应性导致了它的广泛应用 .目前对我国股票市场有效性的实证研究尚处于起步阶段 ,本文试图采用事件研究方法主要针对上海股市进行收益公布的实证研究 .本文研究的经验结果对我国股市的半强式有效性提供了一个重要支持     

Multilocation plant sizing and timing problem: a study of spatial—temporal decomposition procedure

An attempt has been made to develop a spatial-temporal decomposition procedure to solve the multilocation plant sizing and timing problem (MLPSTP). MLPSTP involves the determination of site, location, timing and utilization of the plants to meet the demands of geographically distributed customers. These decisions are assumed to interact through a common objective of minimizing the net present value (NPV) of capital costs and streams of operating and transportation costs. A solution procedure for MLPSTP is proposed using aggregation and disaggregation methodology. In the aggregation phase, MLPSTP is considered to be a single-period problem. This problem is decomposed over different geographical areas to obtain a set of feasible sites and projects. These projects are then sequenced over a finite planning horizon in the disaggregation phase. A multiple criteria based evaluation of spatial decomposition, temporal decomposition, and spatial-temporal decomposition is provided.     

SOME CAUTIONARY NOTES ON THE USE OF CONJOINT MEASUREMENT FOR HUMAN JUDGMENT MODELING*

Conjoint measurement has been suggested as a methodology that might be useful in assisting research concerned with the identification of the structural form of a judge's model. This paper synthesizes the results of some recent research that examined the robustness of this methodology. This research suggests that conjoint measurement has three major weaknesses: (1) certain biases exist when diagnosing model structure, (2) model diagnosis is limited to a small set of potential models, and (3) error substantially compromises conjoint measurement's ability to diagnose model structure. An empirical example that demonstrates some of the difficulties of using this methodology with experimental data is also presented.