Researching Risk in the Probation Service

This paper will draw upon research and consultancy experience across a number of projects on risk assessment and management in the Probation Service between 1993 and 1999. The projects reflect a range of sponsors and funders, from central government bodies such as the Home Office and the Scottish Office, to professional, managerial and employment bodies such as the Association of Chief Officers of Probation and the Central Council of Probation Committees, to individual Probation Service areas. The projects have required engagement with different levels of staff and different vested interests, including the professional/union bodies representing the management and officer grades respectively, in addition to central government policy makers. All the projects have had an applied policy and practice focus. The paper begins with a review of current ethical and political dilemmas in research on offender risk assessment, and then contemporary responses to ethical dilemmas are critically reviewed, followed by an outline of 'practice guidance' for researchers. The paper concludes by arguing that researchers in the social arena should be subject to the same standards of defensible decision making as their counterparts in social care practice, and that essential to such defensibility is the transparent demonstration of the 'grounds' upon which ethical decisions are made.     

Individual and couple decision behavior under risk: evidence on the dynamics of power balance

This article reports results of an experiment designed to analyze the link between risky decisions made by couples and risky decisions made separately by each spouse. We estimate both the spouses and the couples’ degrees of risk aversion, we assess how the risk preferences of the two spouses aggregate when they make risky decisions, and we shed light on the dynamics of the decision process that takes place when couples make risky decisions. We find that, far from being fixed, the balance of power within the household is malleable. In most couples, men have, initially, more decision-making power than women but women who ultimately implement the joint decisions gain more and more power over the course of decision making.     

Making sense of common sense: examining the decision‐making of politically appointed representatives in Swedish child protection

A distinguishing feature of Swedish child protection is the direct and indirect influence on decision‐making in individual cases by representatives appointed by their elected political parties. As members of local committees, they take the most interventionist and costly decisions themselves, informed by care proposals submitted by professional social workers. Other decisions are delegated to professional social workers. In direct decision‐making, they are supposed to act as laypersons using their own judgement and experience, not as politicians. The aim of this paper is to describe and analyse these committees, their role and responsibilities, and possible influence of politics on child protection. A mixed method was used, with a survey sent to 467 representatives, structured interviews with 99 secretaries of local committees and data drawn from national statistics. The Swedish model is discussed as a hybrid system influenced not only by professional, bureaucratic, political and market governance logics but also by laypersons. One conclusion is that although child protection is directly influenced by politics, the reverse is also true. By exposing politicians to the difficult life circumstances and societal shortcomings experienced by vulnerable children, the system can, in turn, have an impact on politics at the municipal level.     

Decision‐making in child welfare services: Professional discretion versus standardized templates

The article explores differences in the assessment and decision‐making processes, in child welfare services where a standardized template is implemented and in services where it is not. Child welfare services in several countries use different approaches to assess children's and families' need for intervention. In Norway, as in other European countries, there is a shortage of knowledge about decision‐making strategies. The article examines how 36 child welfare caseworkers in 6 different teams in Norway investigate, assess, and make decisions at the phase of an incoming referral. The analysed data were collected by focus group interviews. We use decision theory as a theoretical frame of reference. The analysis shows variation in the assessment procedure at different points of the process, depending on which approach was used. Despite such differences, the final decisions made were almost identical. Even though the data has its limitations because of the small number of informants, the results indicate that choice of approach is not decisive for decision‐making in the child welfare services.     

Are Groups More (or Less) Consistent Than Individuals?

There is now overwhelming experimental evidence that individuals systematically violate the axioms of Expected Utility theory. In reality, however, many economic decisions are taken by, or on behalf of, groups whose members have a joint stake in those decisions. This paper reports on an experiment in which pairs of individuals are tested for Common-Ratio inconsistencies. We find that the agreed choices of subject-pairs follow a pattern of inconsistency very close to that of individuals' choices. We also look for evidence that group participation increases the consistency of the individuals themselves. With one solitary exception, we find none.     

Dynamic awareness and zero probability beliefs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social comparison effects are less robust. We do not find any evidence for peer effects (through social-loss aversion or imitation) on insurance take-up. In contrast, we find support for the prediction that people underweight others’ relevant information in their own decision making.     

Organizational support for evidence-based practice within child and family social work: a collaborative study

Research in Practice works in collaboration with over 50 English local authorities and voluntary childcare organizations, to explore new and dynamic ways to increase the use of quality evidence to improve services to children and families. One Research in Practice initiative was a two‐year collaborative project involving the social services departments of six local authorities. This paper reports on how the views of more than 100 professional staff involved with the provision of services to children and families have been gathered to offer insight into how evidence‐based practice can be supported or frustrated in social care organizations. The findings suggest considerable uncertainty about the nature of evidence in social care and its validity in relation to decision‐making, policy and planning. Mechanisms essential for the dissemination, implementation and adoption of research messages are underdeveloped and tensions exist around the explicit use of research evidence within reports and reviews. Many practitioners and teams may be excluded from making decisions based on the best available research evidence through lack of access to internet resources and adequate information dissemination mechanisms. The paper concludes that there remain considerable areas for further debate if evidence‐based practice is to become a reality in work with children and families.     

Controlling for initial endowment and experience in binary choice tasks

Learning literature typically assumes that initial attractions to choose each possible alternative are given exogenously. However, evidence shows that current behaviour depends on past experiences. In this paper, we design an experiment to control for the initial experience in decisions from experience by providing decision makers with an exogenous history (successful vs. unsuccessful) prior to initiating the decision task. Moreover, varying the initial endowment level for fixed histories we investigate the income effect. We are also interested in analysing the duration of both effects (history and income). We find significant treatment effects in the sense that more risk taking behaviour is associated with good histories and with low income levels. According to previous literature, our results confirm the transitory nature of both effects, although the duration of the income effect doubles the duration of the history effect. In the long run, risky choice behaviour converges across different treatments.     

The child's voice in child and family social work decision making: the perspective of a guardian ad litem

This article shows how the voice of the child has come to prominence in decision making, against the background of changes in emphasis between family rights and child protection viewpoints, reflected in 20th-century legislation on family matters. It argues that the role of the guardian ad litem , the historical development of which is charted, is central to the evaluation of the child's views; these are not always straightforward and they must be viewed in tandem with a professional assessment of the child's best interests. The article concludes that the child's voice cannot be the deciding factor in decision making; adults cannot abrogate their responsibility to make reasoned decisions, based both on children's wishes and feelings and on other factors which children, in their immaturity, cannot appreciate.     

Examination of the Child Protective Services Decision-Making Context with Implications for Decision Support System Design

Abstract

The general perception of Child Protective Services (CPS) decision making is that it is inconsistent and prone to error. As a result, risk assessment instruments were developed to enable investigators to make better decisions. The present study uses a qualitative approach with an explicit theoretical framework pertinent to management information systems and decision support system design to examine the context in which investigators operate and make decisions. The resulting information can be used to determine design requirements that would improve the experience of using a risk assessment instrument that serves as a decision support system (DSS) for CPS investigators.     

Decision settings analysis – a tool for analysis and design of human activity systems

The paper describes a methodology to be used for analysis and design of human activity systems. The methodology is based on an analysis of the decision settings whereas most other decision analysis methodologies are analysing the process. The decision concept is analysed and discussed. A distinction between programmed and programmable as well as non-programmed and non-programmable decisions is proposed. A classification of different information types for decision making is presented. A methodology based on a systemic and systematic analysis of the information requirements of an organization is proposed. This methodology also indicates organizational discrepancies and information imbalances. The methodology focuses the settings of the decisions on all levels of organizations. The methodology can be regarded as a dynamic, learning system. The author proposes further research on the individuals decision making abilities.     

Positive confirmation bias in the acquisition of information

An experiment is reported which tests for positive confirmation bias in a setting in which individuals choose what information to buy, prior to making a decision. The design – an adaptation of Wason's selection task – reveals the use that subjects make of information after buying it. Strong evidence of positive confirmation bias, in both information acquisition and information use, is found; and this bias is found to be robust to experience. It is suggested that the bias results from a pattern of reasoning which, although producing sub-optimal decisions, is internally coherent and which is self-reinforcing.     

Joint measurement of risk aversion,prudence, and temperance

Risk aversion—but also the higher-order risk preferences of prudence and temperance—are fundamental concepts in the study of economic decision making. We propose a method to jointly measure the intensity of risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. Our theoretical approach is to define risk compensations of different orders, and in an experiment we elicit these compensations with a price list technique. We find evidence for risk aversion, prudence, and temperance. These traits correlate within subjects. The compensations elicited for prudence are significantly larger than those for risk aversion and temperance. In contrast to commonly used utility functions, prospect theory can predict this behavioral pattern. In our experiment, risk-averse, risk-loving, and risk-neutral subjects are prudent. This supports a recent theoretical observation that prudence may be a more universal trait than previously realized.     

Navigations between regulations and gut instinct: the unveiling of collective memory in decision‐making processes where teenagers are placed in residential care

The decision to take a young person away from his or her family into out‐of‐home care and treatment is the most drastic intervention within the statutory powers bestowed upon social services. The results of reports on the quality of residential treatment reveal that state supervision has not proven to be a good substitute for parental care. In this paper we analyse the decision‐making process when young persons are placed in residential care. Focus groups and individual interviews with different stakeholders were conducted. The results show that the placements are a collective process involving negotiations between the different parties with a coordinating social worker in the middle, with the aim to bring something to build hope on in often desperate situations, regardless of the specific treatment method used. To inform the process, the social workers draw on a ‘collective memory’ shared among colleagues in the department. Important signs of quality of a residential unit were the relational and collaborative competence from the staff. The inclination to use soft, diffuse information in decision‐making shows a striking lack of evidence upon which social workers can build well‐informed and knowledge‐based decisions.     

Choice Bracketing

When making many choices, a person can broadly bracket them by assessing the consequences of all of them taken together, or narrowly bracket them by making each choice in isolation. We integrate research conducted in a wide range of decision contexts which shows that choice bracketing is an important determinant of behavior. Because broad bracketing allows people to take into account all the consequences of their actions, it generally leads to choices that yield higher utility. The evidence that we review, however, shows that people often fail to bracket broadly when it would be feasible for them to do so. In addition to documenting the diverse effects of bracketing, we also discuss factors that determine whether people bracket narrowly or broadly. We conclude with a discussion of normative aspects of bracketing and argue that there are some situations in which narrower bracketing results in superior decision making.     

Stakeholder Consultation as Social Mobilization: Framing Scottish Mental Health Policy

Public and stakeholder consultation is increasingly important in the policy process, both in the UK and elsewhere. Social scientists have considered consultation primarily in terms of how it relates to decision‐making – either as a means of involving a wider constituency of actors in the decision‐making process, or as a means of legitimizing the decisions taken by policymakers. This article shows that consultation can also serve a rather different role in relation to policy: as, in effect, the first stage in policy implementation. Based on direct observation of a stakeholder consultation on Scottish mental health policy that took place during late 2007 and early 2008, it draws on elements of social movement theory to show how that consultation served as a means of enrolling, orienting and mobilizing stakeholders to implement a largely pre‐existing set of policy aims.