Characterizing and Communicating Risk with Exposure Reconstruction and Bayesian Analysis: Historical Locomotive Maintenance/Repair Associated with Asbestos Woven Tape Pipe Lagging

Our reconstructed historical work scenarios incorporating a vintage 1950s locomotive can assist in better understanding the historical asbestos exposures associated with past maintenance and repairs and fill a literature data gap. Air sampling data collected during the exposure scenarios and analyzed by NIOSH 7400 (PCM) and 7402 (PCME) methodologies show personal breathing zone asbestiform fiber exposures were below the current OSHA exposure limits for the eight‐hour TWA permissible exposure limit (PEL) of 0.1 f/cc (range <0.007–0.064 PCME f/cc) and the 30‐minute short‐term excursion limit (EL) of 1.0 f/cc (range <0.045–0.32 PCME f/cc) and orders of magnitude below historic OSHA PEL and ACGIH TLVs. Bayesian decision analysis (BDA) results demonstrate that the 95th percentile point estimate falls into an AIHA exposure category 3 or 4 as compared to the current PEL and category 1 when compared to the historic PEL. BDA results demonstrate that bystander exposures would be classified as category 0. Our findings were also significantly below the published calcium magnesium insulations exposure range of 2.5 to 7.5 f/cc reported for historic work activities of pipefitters, mechanics, and boilermakers. Diesel‐electric locomotive pipe systems were typically insulated with a woven tape lagging that may have been chrysotile asbestos and handled, removed, and reinstalled during repair and maintenance activities. We reconstructed historical work scenarios containing asbestos woven tape pipe lagging that have not been characterized in the published literature. The historical work scenarios were conducted by a retired railroad pipefitter with 37 years of experience working with materials and locomotives.     

A Bayesian Model and Stochastic Exposure (Dose) Estimation for Relative Exposure Risk Comparison Involving Asbestos‐Containing Dropped Ceiling Panel Installation and Maintenance Tasks

Assessing exposures to hazards in order to characterize risk is at the core of occupational hygiene. Our study examined dropped ceiling systems commonly used in schools and commercial buildings and lay‐in ceiling panels that may have contained asbestos prior to the mid to late 1970s. However, most ceiling panels and tiles do not contain asbestos. Since asbestos risk relates to dose, we estimated the distribution of eight‐hour TWA concentrations and one‐year exposures (a one‐year dose equivalent) to asbestos fibers (asbestos f/cc‐years) for five groups of workers who may encounter dropped ceilings: specialists, generalists, maintenance workers, nonprofessional do‐it‐yourself (DIY) persons, and other tradespersons who are bystanders to ceiling work. Concentration data (asbestos f/cc) were obtained through two exposure assessment studies in the field and one chamber study. Bayesian and stochastic models were applied to estimate distributions of eight‐hour TWAs and annual exposures (dose). The eight‐hour TWAs for all work categories were below current and historic occupational exposure limits (OELs). Exposures to asbestos fibers from dropped ceiling work would be categorized as “highly controlled” for maintenance workers and “well controlled” for remaining work categories, according to the American Industrial Hygiene Association exposure control rating system. Annual exposures (dose) were found to be greatest for specialists, followed by maintenance workers, generalists, bystanders, and DIY. On a comparative basis, modeled dose and thus risk from dropped ceilings for all work categories were orders of magnitude lower than published exposures for other sources of banned friable asbestos‐containing building material commonly encountered in construction trades.     

Exposures from Chrysotile‐Containing Joint Compound: Evaluation of New Model Relating Respirable Dust to Fiber Concentrations

The potential for fiber exposure during historical use of chrysotile‐containing joint compounds (JCC) has been documented, but the published data are of limited use for reconstructing exposures and assessing worker risk. Consequently, fiber concentration distributions for workers sanding JCC were independently derived by applying a recently developed model based on published dust measurements from sanding modern‐day (asbestos‐free) joint compound and compared to fiber concentration distributions based on limited historical measurements. This new procedure relies on factors that account for (i) differences in emission rates between modern‐day and JCC and (ii) the number of fibers (quantified by phase contrast microscopy [PCM]) per mass of dust generated by sanding JCC, as determined in a bench‐scale chamber study using a recreated JCC, that convert respirable dust concentrations to fiber concentrations. Airborne respirable PCM‐fiber concentration medians (and 95% confidence intervals) derived for output variables using the new procedure were 0.26 (0.039, 1.7) f/cm³ and 0.078 (0.013, 0.47) f/cm³, and corresponding total fiber concentrations were 1.2 (0.17, 9.2) f/cm³ and 0.37 (0.056, 2.5) f/cm³, in enclosed and nonenclosed environments, respectively. Corresponding estimates of respirable and total PCM fiber concentrations measured historically during sanding of asbestos‐containing joint compound—adjusted for differences between peak and time‐weighted average (TWA) concentrations and documented analytical preparation and sampling artifacts—were 0.15 (0.019, 0.95) f/cm³ and 0.86 (0.11, 5.4) f/cm³, respectively. The PCM‐fiber concentration distributions estimated using the new procedure bound the distribution estimated from adjusted TWA historical fiber measurements, suggesting reasonable consistency of these estimates taking into account uncertainties addressed in this study.     

Comparative Risks of Cancer from Drywall Finishing Based on Stochastic Modeling of Cumulative Exposures to Respirable Dusts and Chrysotile Asbestos Fibers

Sanding joint compounds is a dusty activity and exposures are not well characterized. Until the mid 1970s, asbestos‐containing joint compounds were used by some people such that sanding could emit dust and asbestos fibers. We estimated the distribution of 8‐h TWA concentrations and cumulative exposures to respirable dusts and chrysotile asbestos fibers for four worker groups: (1) drywall specialists, (2) generalists, (3) tradespersons who are bystanders to drywall finishing, and (4) do‐it‐yourselfers (DIYers). Data collected through a survey of experienced contractors, direct field observations, and literature were used to develop prototypical exposure scenarios for each worker group. To these exposure scenarios, we applied a previously developed semi‐empirical mathematical model that predicts area as well as personal breathing zone respirable dust concentrations. An empirical factor was used to estimate chrysotile fiber concentrations from respirable dust concentrations. On a task basis, we found mean 8‐h TWA concentrations of respirable dust and chrysotile fibers are numerically highest for specialists, followed by generalists, DIYers, and bystander tradespersons; these concentrations are estimated to be in excess of the respective current but not historical Threshold Limit Values. Due to differences in frequency of activities, annual cumulative exposures are highest for specialists, followed by generalists, bystander tradespersons, and DIYers. Cumulative exposure estimates for chrysotile fibers from drywall finishing are expected to result in few, if any, mesothelioma or excess lung cancer deaths according to recently published risk assessments. Given the dustiness of drywall finishing, we recommend diligence in the use of readily available source controls.     

Benzene Inhalation by Parts Washers: New Estimates Based on Measures of Occupational Exposure to Solvent Coaromatics

Questions persist regarding assessment of workers’ exposures to products containing low levels of benzene, such as mineral spirit solvent (MSS). This study summarizes previously unpublished data for parts‐washing activities, and evaluates potential daily and lifetime cumulative benzene exposures incurred by workers who used historical and current formulations of a recycled mineral spirits solvent in manual parts washers. Measured benzene concentrations in historical samples from parts‐washing operations were frequently below analytical detection limits. To better assess benzene exposure among these workers, air‐to‐solvent concentration ratios measured for toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (TEX) were used to predict those for benzene based on a statistical model, conditional on physical‐chemical theory supported by new thermodynamic calculations of TEX and benzene activity coefficients in a modeled MSS‐type solvent. Using probabilistic methods, the distributions of benzene concentrations were then combined with distributions of other exposure parameters to estimate eight‐hour time‐weighted average (TWA) exposure concentration distributions and corresponding daily respiratory dose distributions for workers using these solvents in parts washers. The estimated 50th (95th) percentile of the daily respiratory dose and corresponding eight‐hour TWA air concentration for workers performing parts washing are 0.079 (0.77) mg and 0.0030 (0.028) parts per million by volume (ppm) for historical solvent, and 0.020 (0.20) mg and 0.00078 (0.0075) ppm for current solvent, respectively. Both 95th percentile eight‐hour TWA respiratory exposure estimates for solvent formulations are less than 10% of the current Occupational Safety and Health Administration permissible exposure limit of 1.0 ppm for benzene.     

Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products

Over time, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for human exposure and risk from asbestos in cosmetic‐talc–containing consumer products. In 1985, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a risk assessment evaluating the potential inhalation asbestos exposure associated with the cosmetic talc consumer use scenario of powdering an infant during diapering, and found that risks were below levels associated with background asbestos exposures and risk. However, given the scope and age of the FDA's assessment, it was unknown whether the agency's conclusions remained relevant to current risk assessment practices, talc application scenarios, and exposure data. This analysis updates the previous FDA assessment by incorporating the current published exposure literature associated with consumer use of talcum powder and using the current U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) nonoccupational asbestos risk assessment approach to estimate potential cumulative asbestos exposure and risk for four use scenarios: (1) infant exposure during diapering; (2) adult exposure from infant diapering; (3) adult exposure from face powdering; and (4) adult exposure from body powdering. The estimated range of cumulative asbestos exposure potential for all scenarios (assuming an asbestos content of 0.1%) ranged from 0.0000021 to 0.0096 f/cc‐yr and resulted in risk estimates that were within or below EPA's acceptable target risk levels. Consistent with the original FDA findings, exposure and corresponding health risk in this range were orders of magnitude below upper‐bound estimates of cumulative asbestos exposure and risk at ambient levels, which have not been associated with increased incidence of asbestos‐related disease.     

Potential Exposure and Cancer Risk from Formaldehyde Emissions from Installed Chinese Manufactured Laminate Flooring

Lumber Liquidators (LL) Chinese‐manufactured laminate flooring (CLF) has been installed in >400,000 U.S. homes over the last decade. To characterize potential associated formaldehyde exposures and cancer risks, chamber emissions data were collected from 399 new LL CLF, and from LL CLF installed in 899 homes in which measured aggregate indoor formaldehyde concentrations exceeded 100 μg/m³ from a total of 17,867 homes screened. Data from both sources were combined to characterize LL CLF flooring‐associated formaldehyde emissions from new boards and installed boards. New flooring had an average (±SD ) emission rate of 61.3 ± 52.1 μg/m²‐hour; >one‐year installed boards had ∼threefold lower emission rates. Estimated emission rates for the 899 homes and corresponding data from questionnaires were used as inputs to a single‐compartment, steady‐state mass‐balance model to estimate corresponding residence‐specific TWA formaldehyde concentrations and potential resident exposures. Only ∼0.7% of those homes had estimated acute formaldehyde concentrations >100 μg/m³ immediately after LL CLF installation. The TWA daily formaldehyde inhalation exposure within the 899 homes was estimated to be 17 μg/day using California Proposition 65 default methods to extrapolate cancer risk (below the regulation “no significant risk level” of 40 μg/day). Using a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency linear cancer risk model, 50th and 95th percentile values of expected lifetime cancer risk for residents of these homes were estimated to be 0.33 and 1.2 per 100,000 exposed, respectively. Based on more recent data and verified nonlinear cancer risk assessment models, LL CLF formaldehyde emissions pose virtually no cancer risk to affected consumers.     

Use of Environmental Tobacco Smoke Constituents as Markers for Exposure

The 16-City Study analyzed for gas-phase environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) constituents (nicotine, 3-ethenyl pyridine [3-EP], and myosmine) and for particulate-phase constituents (respirable particulate matter [RSP], ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter [UVPM], fluorescing particulate matter [FPM], scopoletin, and solanesol). In this second of three articles, we discuss the merits of each constituent as a marker for ETS and report pair-wise comparisons of the markers. Neither nicotine nor UVPM were good predictors for RSP. However, nicotine and UVPM were good qualitative predictors of each other. Nicotine was correlated with other gas-phase constituents. Comparisons between UVPM and other particulate-phase constituents were performed. Its relation with FPM was excellent, with UVPM approximately 1 1/2 times FPM. The correlation between UVPM and solanesol was good, but the relationship between the two was not linear. The relation between UVPM and scopoletin was not good, largely because of noise in the scopoletin measures around its limit of detection. We considered the relation between nicotine and saliva cotinine, a metabolite of nicotine. The two were highly correlated on the group level. That is, for each cell (smoking home and work, smoking home but nonsmoking work, and so forth), there was high correlation between average cotinine and 24-hour time-weighted average (TWA) nicotine concentrations. However, on the individual level, the correlations, although significant, were not biologically meaningful. A consideration of cotinine and nicotine or 3-EP on a subset of the study whose only exposure to ETS was exclusively at work or exclusively at home showed that home exposure was a more important source of ETS than work exposure.     

Comparative Probabilistic Assessment of Occupational Pesticide Exposures Based on Regulatory Assessments

Implementation of probabilistic analyses in exposure assessment can provide valuable insight into the risks of those at the extremes of population distributions, including more vulnerable or sensitive subgroups. Incorporation of these analyses into current regulatory methods for occupational pesticide exposure is enabled by the exposure data sets and associated data currently used in the risk assessment approach of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Monte Carlo simulations were performed on exposure measurements from the Agricultural Handler Exposure Database and the Pesticide Handler Exposure Database along with data from the Exposure Factors Handbook and other sources to calculate exposure rates for three different neurotoxic compounds (azinphos methyl, acetamiprid, emamectin benzoate) across four pesticide‐handling scenarios. Probabilistic estimates of doses were compared with the no observable effect levels used in the EPA occupational risk assessments. Some percentage of workers were predicted to exceed the level of concern for all three compounds: 54% for azinphos methyl, 5% for acetamiprid, and 20% for emamectin benzoate. This finding has implications for pesticide risk assessment and offers an alternative procedure that may be more protective of those at the extremes of exposure than the current approach.     

The Use of Multizone Models to Estimate an Airborne Chemical Contaminant Generation and Decay Profile: Occupational Exposures of Hairdressers to Vinyl Chloride in Hairspray During the 1960s and 1970s

Vinyl chloride (VC) was used as a propellant in a limited percentage of aerosol hairspray products in the United States from approximately 1967 to 1973. The question has arisen whether occupational exposures of hairdressers to VC-containing hairsprays in hair salons were sufficient to increase the risk for developing hepatic angiosarcoma (HAS). Transient two-zone and steady-state three-zone models were used to estimate the historical airborne concentration of VC for individual hairdressers using hairspray as well as estimated contributions from other hairdressers in the same salon. Concentrations of VC were modeled for small, medium, and large salons, as well as a representative home salon. Model inputs were determined using published literature, and variability in these inputs was also considered using Monte Carlo techniques. The 95th percentile for the daily time-weighted average exposure for small, medium, and large salons, assuming a market-share fraction of VC-containing hairspray use from the Monte Carlo analysis, was about 0.3 ppm, and for the home salon scenario was 0.1 ppm. The 95th percentile value for the cumulative lifetime exposure of the hairdressers was 2.8 ppm-years for the home salon scenario and 2.0 ppm-years for the small, medium, and large salon scenarios. If using the assumption that all hairsprays used in a salon contained VC, the 95th percentile of the theoretical lifetime cumulative dose was estimated to be 52–79 ppm-years. Estimated lifetime doses were all below the threshold dose for HAS of about 300 to 500 ppm-years reported in the published epidemiology literature.     

Bayesian Development of a Dose‐Response Model for Aspergillus fumigatus and Invasive Aspergillosis

Invasive aspergillosis (IA) is a major cause of mortality in immunocompromized hosts, most often consecutive to the inhalation of spores of Aspergillus. However, the relationship between Aspergillus concentration in the air and probability of IA is not quantitatively known. In this study, this relationship was examined in a murine model of IA. Immunosuppressed Balb/c mice were exposed for 60 minutes at day 0 to an aerosol of A. fumigatus spores (Af293 strain). At day 10, IA was assessed in mice by quantitative culture of the lungs and galactomannan dosage. Fifteen separate nebulizations with varying spore concentrations were performed. Rates of IA ranged from 0% to 100% according to spore concentrations. The dose‐response relationship between probability of infection and spore exposure was approximated using the exponential model and the more flexible beta‐Poisson model. Prior distributions of the parameters of the models were proposed then updated with data in a Bayesian framework. Both models yielded close median dose‐responses of the posterior distributions for the main parameter of the model, but with different dispersions, either when the exposure dose was the concentration in the nebulized suspension or was the estimated quantity of spores inhaled by a mouse during the experiment. The median quantity of inhaled spores that infected 50% of mice was estimated at 1.8 × 10⁴ and 3.2 × 10⁴ viable spores in the exponential and beta‐Poisson models, respectively. This study provides dose‐response parameters for quantitative assessment of the relationship between airborne exposure to the reference A. fumigatus strain and probability of IA in immunocompromized hosts.     

Distribution of Exposure Concentrations and Doses for Constituents of Environmental Tobacco Smoke

The ultimate goal of the research reported in this series of three articles is to derive distributions of doses of selected environmental tobacco smoke (ETS)-related chemicals for nonsmoking workers. This analysis uses data from the 16-City Study collected with personal monitors over the course of one workday in workplaces where smoking occurred. In this article, we describe distributions of ETS chemical concentrations and the characteristics of those distributions (e.g., whether the distribution was log normal for a given constituent) for the workplace exposure. Next, we present population parameters relevant for estimating dose distributions and the methods used for estimating those dose distributions. Finally, we derive distributions of doses of selected ETS-related constituents obtained in the workplace for people in smoking work environments. Estimating dose distributions provided information beyond the usual point estimate of dose and showed that the preponderance of individuals exposed to ETS in the workplace were exposed at the low end of the dose distribution curve. The results of this analysis include estimations of hourly maxima and time-weighted average (TWA) doses of nicotine from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 week) and doses derived from modeled lung burdens of ultraviolet-absorbing particulate matter (UVPM) and solanesol resulting from workplace exposures to ETS (extrapolated from 1 day to 1 year).     

Effects of Exposure Imprecision on Estimation of the Benchmark Dose

In regression analysis failure to adjust for imprecision in the exposure variable is likely to lead to underestimation of the exposure effect. However, the consequences of exposure error for determination of safe doses of toxic substances have so far not received much attention. The benchmark approach is one of the most widely used methods for development of exposure limits. An important advantage of this approach is that it can be applied to observational data. However, in this type of data, exposure markers are seldom measured without error. It is shown that, if the exposure error is ignored, then the benchmark approach produces results that are biased toward higher and less protective levels. It is therefore important to take exposure measurement error into account when calculating benchmark doses. Methods that allow this adjustment are described and illustrated in data from an epidemiological study on the health effects of prenatal mercury exposure.     

Daily Inhalation Rate and Time‐Activity/Location Pattern in Japanese Preschool Children

Lack of data on daily inhalation rate and activity of children has been an issue in health risk assessment of air pollutants. This study aimed to obtain the daily inhalation rate and intensity and frequency of physical activity in relation to the environment in Japanese preschool children. Children aged four–six years (n= 138) in the suburbs of Tokyo participated in this study, which involved three days' continuous monitoring of physical activity using a tri‐axial accelerometer and parent's completion of a time/location diary during daily life. The estimated three‐day mean daily inhalation rate (body temperature, pressure, saturated with water vapor) was 9.9 ± 1.6 m³/day (0.52 ± 0.09 m³/kg/day). The current daily inhalation rate value of 0.580 m³/kg/day proposed for use in health risk assessment in Japan is confirmed to be valid to calculate central value of inhaled dose of air pollutants in five‐ to six‐year‐old children. However, the 95th percentile daily inhalation rate of 0.83 m³/kg/day based on measurement for five‐year‐old children is recommended to be used to provide an upper bound estimate of exposure that ensure the protection of all five‐ to six‐year‐old children from the health risk of air pollutants. Children spent the majority of their time in sedentary and light level of physical activity (LPA) when indoors, while 85% of their time when outdoors was spent in LPA and moderate‐to‐vigorous physical activity. The results suggest the need to consider variability of minute respiratory ventilation rate according to the environment for more refined short‐term health risk assessment.     

Estimating Contaminant Dose for Intermittent Dermal Contact: Model Development, Testing, and Application

Assessments of aggregate exposure to pesticides and other surface contamination in residential environments are often driven by assumptions about dermal contacts. Accurately predicting cumulative doses from realistic skin contact scenarios requires characterization of exposure scenarios, skin surface loading and unloading rates, and contaminant movement through the epidermis. In this article we (1) develop and test a finite-difference model of contaminant transport through the epidermis; (2) develop archetypal exposure scenarios based on behavioral data to estimate characteristic loading and unloading rates; and (3) quantify 24-hour accumulation below the epidermis by applying a Monte Carlo simulation of these archetypal exposure scenarios. The numerical model, called Transient Transport through the epiDERMis (TTDERM), allows us to account for variable exposure times and time between exposures, temporal and spatial variations in skin and compound properties, and uncertainty in model parameters. Using TTDERM we investigate the use of a macro-activity parameter (cumulative contact time) for predicting daily (24-hour) integrated uptake of pesticides during complex exposure scenarios. For characteristic child behaviors and hand loading and unloading rates, we find that a power law represents the relationship between cumulative contact time and cumulative mass transport through the skin. With almost no loss of reliability, this simple relationship can be used in place of the more complex micro-activity simulations that require activity data on one- to five-minute intervals. The methods developed in this study can be used to guide dermal exposure model refinements and exposure measurement study design.     

A Risk Assessment Framework for Assessing Metallic Nanomaterials of Environmental Concern: Aquatic Exposure and Behavior

Nanomaterials are finding application in many different environmentally relevant products and processes due to enhanced catalytic, antimicrobial, and oxidative properties of materials at this scale. As the market share of nano‐functionalized products increases, so too does the potential for environmental exposure and contamination. This study presents some exposure ranking methods that consider potential metallic nanomaterial surface water exposure and fate, due to nano‐functionalized products, through a number of exposure pathways. These methods take into account the limited and disparate data currently available for metallic nanomaterials and apply variability and uncertainty principles, together with qualitative risk assessment principles, to develop a scientific ranking. Three exposure scenarios with three different nanomaterials were considered to demonstrate these assessment methods: photo‐catalytic exterior paint (nano‐scale TiO₂), antimicrobial food packaging (nano‐scale Ag), and particulate‐reducing diesel fuel additives (nano‐scale CeO₂). Data and hypotheses from literature relating to metallic nanomaterial aquatic behavior (including the behavior of materials that may relate to nanomaterials in aquatic environments, e.g., metals, pesticides, surfactants) were used together with commercial nanomaterial characteristics and Irish natural aquatic environment characteristics to rank the potential concentrations, transport, and persistence behaviors within subjective categories. These methods, and the applied scenarios, reveal where data critical to estimating exposure and risk are lacking. As research into the behavior of metallic nanomaterials in different environments emerges, the influence of material and environmental characteristics on nanomaterial behavior within these exposure‐ and risk‐ranking methods may be redefined on a quantitative basis.     

Quantitative Risk Estimation for a Legionella pneumophila Infection Due to Whirlpool Use

Quantitative microbiological risk assessment was used to quantify the risk associated with the exposure to Legionella pneumophila in a whirlpool. Conceptually, air bubbles ascend to the surface, intercepting Legionella from the traversed water. At the surface the bubble bursts into dominantly noninhalable jet drops and inhalable film drops. Assuming that film drops carry half of the intercepted Legionella, a total of four (95% interval: 1–9) and 4.5×10⁴ (4.4×10⁴ – 4.7×10⁴) cfu/min were estimated to be aerosolized for concentrations of 1 and 1,000 legionellas per liter, respectively. Using a dose‐response model for guinea pigs to represent humans, infection risks for active whirlpool use with 100 cfu/L water for 15 minutes were 0.29 (～0.11–0.48) for susceptible males and 0.22 (～0.06–0.42) for susceptible females. A L. pneumophila concentration of ≥1,000 cfu/L water was estimated to nearly always cause an infection (mean: 0.95; 95% interval: 0.9–～1). Estimated infection risks were time‐dependent, ranging from 0.02 (0–0.11) for 1‐minute exposures to 0.93 (0.86–0.97) for 2‐hour exposures when the L. pneumophila concentration was 100 cfu/L water. Pool water in Dutch bathing establishments should contain <100 cfu Legionella/L water. This study suggests that stricter provisions might be required to assure adequate public health protection.     

A Bayesian Semiparametric Model for Radiation Dose‐Response Estimation

In evaluating the risk of exposure to health hazards, characterizing the dose‐response relationship and estimating acceptable exposure levels are the primary goals. In analyses of health risks associated with exposure to ionizing radiation, while there is a clear agreement that moderate to high radiation doses cause harmful effects in humans, little has been known about the possible biological effects at low doses, for example, below 0.1 Gy, which is the dose range relevant to most radiation exposures of concern today. A conventional approach to radiation dose‐response estimation based on simple parametric forms, such as the linear nonthreshold model, can be misleading in evaluating the risk and, in particular, its uncertainty at low doses. As an alternative approach, we consider a Bayesian semiparametric model that has a connected piece‐wise‐linear dose‐response function with prior distributions having an autoregressive structure among the random slope coefficients defined over closely spaced dose categories. With a simulation study and application to analysis of cancer incidence data among Japanese atomic bomb survivors, we show that this approach can produce smooth and flexible dose‐response estimation while reasonably handling the risk uncertainty at low doses and elsewhere. With relatively few assumptions and modeling options to be made by the analyst, the method can be particularly useful in assessing risks associated with low‐dose radiation exposures.     

Aggregate Human Health Risk Assessment from Dust of Daily Life in the Urban Environment of Beijing

Because of the high emissions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) into the environment by the increasing number of vehicles in Beijing and the absorption of these PAHs onto particulates, the performance of a preliminary health risk assessment of the aggregate exposure to PAHs of urban citizens in daily life is very important. Urban dust can be used to examine the aggregation of atmospheric particulates from local pollution sources over a long time period and the direct exposure of the urban human population. The environment's correlative with clothing, dining, residing, and traveling in urban daily life was assessed using exposure‐receptor‐oriented analysis. The multipathway exposure model was used to simulate the lifetime exposure of a female citizen to PAHs in dust. All of the PAH concentrations in dust for each behavior and its correlative environment in Beijing were acceptable because all of the carcinogenic risks of PAHs in the dust were approximately 1.0 × 10^–6. The dominant induced carcinogenic risks in the dust were Benzo(a)pyrene and Dibenzo(a,h)anthracene. The main carcinogenic risk routes for humans were dermal contact and oral intake, which contributed on average 99.78% of the risk. Indoor risk is especially important, as the decoration and height within the building were important impact factors for carcinogenic risk induced by indoor PAHs. For people living in an urban area, a healthy lifestyle includes less decoration per room, living on a low floor, wearing a respirator, and reducing exposed skin area when traveling.