Further Properties of Frequentist Confidence Intervals in Regression that Utilize Uncertain Prior Information

Consider a linear regression model with n‐dimensional response vector, regression parameter and independent and identically distributed errors. Suppose that the parameter of interest is where a is a specified vector. Define the parameter where c and t are specified. Also suppose that we have uncertain prior information that . Part of our evaluation of a frequentist confidence interval for is the ratio (expected length of this confidence interval)/(expected length of standard confidence interval), which we call the scaled expected length of this interval. We say that a confidence interval for utilizes this uncertain prior information if: (i) the scaled expected length of this interval is substantially less than 1 when ; (ii) the maximum value of the scaled expected length is not too much larger than 1; and (iii) this confidence interval reverts to the standard confidence interval when the data happen to strongly contradict the prior information. Kabaila and Giri (2009) present a new method for finding such a confidence interval. Let denote the least squares estimator of . Also let and . Using computations and new theoretical results, we show that the performance of this confidence interval improves as increases and decreases.     

Central Limit Theorems for Reduced U‐Statistics Under Dependence and Their Usefulness

A reduced ‐statistic is a ‐statistic with its summands drawn from a restricted but balanced set of pairs. In this article, central limit theorems are derived for reduced ‐statistics under ‐mixing, which significantly extends the work of Brown & Kildea in various aspects. It will be shown and illustrated that reduced ‐statistics are quite useful in deriving test statistics in various nonparametric testing problems.     

Semiparametric Mixtures of Symmetric Distributions

We consider in this paper the semiparametric mixture of two unknown distributions equal up to a location parameter. The model is said to be semiparametric in the sense that the mixed distribution is not supposed to belong to a parametric family. To insure the identifiability of the model, it is assumed that the mixed distribution is zero symmetric, the model being then defined by the mixing proportion, two location parameters and the probability density function of the mixed distribution. We propose a new class of M‐estimators of these parameters based on a Fourier approach and prove that they are ‐consistent under mild regularity conditions. Their finite sample properties are illustrated by a Monte Carlo study, and a benchmark real dataset is also studied with our method.     

Empirical Likelihood for Compound Poisson Processes

Let {N(t), t > 0} be a Poisson process with rate λ > 0, independent of the independent and identically distributed random variables with mean μ and variance . The stochastic process is then called a compound Poisson process and has a wide range of applications in, for example, physics, mining, finance and risk management. Among these applications, the average number of objects, which is defined to be λμ, is an important quantity. Although many papers have been devoted to the estimation of λμ in the literature, in this paper, we use the well‐known empirical likelihood method to construct confidence intervals. The simulation results show that the empirical likelihood method often outperforms the normal approximation and Edgeworth expansion approaches in terms of coverage probabilities. A real data set concerning coal‐mining disasters is analyzed using these methods.     

On Projection‐type Estimators of Multivariate Isotonic Functions

Abstract. Let M be an isotonic real‐valued function on a compact subset of and let be an unconstrained estimator of M. A feasible monotonizing technique is to take the largest (smallest) monotone function that lies below (above) the estimator or any convex combination of these two envelope estimators. When the process is asymptotically equicontinuous for some sequence r_n→∞, we show that these projection‐type estimators are r_n‐equivalent in probability to the original unrestricted estimator. Our first motivating application involves a monotone estimator of the conditional distribution function that has the distributional properties of the local linear regression estimator. Applications also include the estimation of econometric (probability‐weighted moment, quantile) and biometric (mean remaining lifetime) functions.     

Bayesian Analysis of the Proportional Hazards Model with Time‐Varying Coefficients

We study a Bayesian analysis of the proportional hazards model with time‐varying coefficients. We consider two priors for time‐varying coefficients – one based on B‐spline basis functions and the other based on Gamma processes – and we use a beta process prior for the baseline hazard functions. We show that the two priors provide optimal posterior convergence rates (up to the term) and that the Bayes factor is consistent for testing the assumption of the proportional hazards when the two priors are used for an alternative hypothesis. In addition, adaptive priors are considered for theoretical investigation, in which the smoothness of the true function is assumed to be unknown, and prior distributions are assigned based on B‐splines.     

Autocovariance Estimation in Regression with a Discontinuous Signal and m‐Dependent Errors: A Difference‐Based Approach

We discuss a class of difference‐based estimators for the autocovariance in nonparametric regression when the signal is discontinuous and the errors form a stationary m‐dependent process. These estimators circumvent the particularly challenging task of pre‐estimating such an unknown regression function. We provide finite‐sample expressions of their mean squared errors for piecewise constant signals and Gaussian errors. Based on this, we derive biased‐optimized estimates that do not depend on the unknown autocovariance structure. Notably, for positively correlated errors, that part of the variance of our estimators that depend on the signal is minimal as well. Further, we provide sufficient conditions for ‐consistency; this result is extended to piecewise Hölder regression with non‐Gaussian errors. We combine our biased‐optimized autocovariance estimates with a projection‐based approach and derive covariance matrix estimates, a method that is of independent interest. An R package, several simulations and an application to biophysical measurements complement this paper.     

A Class of Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests for Homogeneity in Exponential Tilt Mixture Models

Mixture models are commonly used in biomedical research to account for possible heterogeneity in population. In this paper, we consider tests for homogeneity between two groups in the exponential tilt mixture models. A novel pairwise pseudolikelihood approach is proposed to eliminate the unknown nuisance function. We show that the corresponding pseudolikelihood ratio test has an asymptotic distribution as a supremum of two squared Gaussian processes under the null hypothesis. To maintain the appeal of simplicity for conventional likelihood ratio tests, we propose two alternative tests, both shown to have a simple asymptotic distribution of under the null. Simulation studies show that the proposed class of pseudolikelihood ratio tests performs well in controlling type I errors and having competitive powers compared with the current tests. The proposed tests are illustrated by an example of partial differential expression detection using microarray data from prostate cancer patients.     

High‐order Corrected Estimator of Asymptotic Variance with Optimal Bandwidth

Estimation of time‐average variance constant (TAVC), which is the asymptotic variance of the sample mean of a dependent process, is of fundamental importance in various fields of statistics. For frequentists, it is crucial for constructing confidence interval of mean and serving as a normalizing constant in various test statistics and so forth. For Bayesians, it is widely used for evaluating effective sample size and conducting convergence diagnosis in Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this paper, by considering high‐order corrections to the asymptotic biases, we develop a new class of TAVC estimators that enjoys optimal ‐convergence rates under different degrees of the serial dependence of stochastic processes. The high‐order correction procedure is applicable to estimation of the so‐called smoothness parameter, which is essential in determining the optimal bandwidth. Comparisons with existing TAVC estimators are comprehensively investigated. In particular, the proposed optimal high‐order corrected estimator has the best performance in terms of mean squared error.     

Empirical Likelihood for Nonparametric Models Under Linear Process Errors

In this paper, we study the construction of confidence intervals for a nonparametric regression function under linear process errors by using the blockwise technique. It is shown that the blockwise empirical likelihood (EL) ratio statistic is asymptotically distributed. The result is used to obtain EL based confidence intervals for the nonparametric regression function. The finite‐sample performance of the method is evaluated through a simulation study.     

Estimation of a Copula when a Covariate Affects only Marginal Distributions

This paper is concerned with studying the dependence structure between two random variables Y₁ and Y₂ in the presence of a covariate X, which affects both marginal distributions but not the dependence structure. This is reflected in the property that the conditional copula of Y₁ and Y₂ given X, does not depend on the value of X. This latter independence often appears as a simplifying assumption in pair‐copula constructions. We introduce a general estimator for the copula in this specific setting and establish its consistency. Moreover, we consider some special cases, such as parametric or nonparametric location‐scale models for the effect of the covariate X on the marginals of Y₁ and Y₂ and show that in these cases, weak convergence of the estimator, at ‐rate, holds. The theoretical results are illustrated by simulations and a real data example.     

Contaminated normal modeling with application to microarray data analysis

A contaminated beta model $(1-\gamma) B(1,1) + \gamma B(\alpha,\beta)$ is often used to describe the distribution of $P$ ‐values arising from a microarray experiment. The authors propose and examine a different approach: namely, using a contaminated normal model $(1-\gamma) N(0,\sigma^2) + \gamma N(\mu,\sigma^2)$ to describe the distribution of $Z$ statistics or suitably transformed $T$ statistics. The authors then address whether a researcher who has $Z$ statistics should analyze them using the contaminated normal model or whether the $Z$ statistics should be converted to $P$ ‐values to be analyzed using the contaminated beta model. The authors also provide a decision‐theoretic perspective on the analysis of $Z$ statistics. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 315–332; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Adaptive Deconvolution on the Non‐negative Real Line

In this paper, we consider the problem of adaptive density or survival function estimation in an additive model defined by Z=X+Y with X independent of Y, when both random variables are non‐negative. This model is relevant, for instance, in reliability fields where we are interested in the failure time of a certain material that cannot be isolated from the system it belongs. Our goal is to recover the distribution of X (density or survival function) through n observations of Z, assuming that the distribution of Y is known. This issue can be seen as the classical statistical problem of deconvolution that has been tackled in many cases using Fourier‐type approaches. Nonetheless, in the present case, the random variables have the particularity to be supported. Knowing that, we propose a new angle of attack by building a projection estimator with an appropriate Laguerre basis. We present upper bounds on the mean squared integrated risk of our density and survival function estimators. We then describe a non‐parametric data‐driven strategy for selecting a relevant projection space. The procedures are illustrated with simulated data and compared with the performances of a more classical deconvolution setting using a Fourier approach. Our procedure achieves faster convergence rates than Fourier methods for estimating these functions.     

Random Weighting Estimation of Confidence Intervals for Quantiles

This paper presents a new random weighting method for confidence interval estimation for the sample ‐quantile. A theory is established to extend ordinary random weighting estimation from a non‐smoothed function to a smoothed function, such as a kernel function. Based on this theory, a confidence interval is derived using the concept of backward critical points. The resultant confidence interval has the same length as that derived by ordinary random weighting estimation, but is distribution‐free, and thus it is much more suitable for practical applications. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed random weighting method has higher accuracy than the Bootstrap method for confidence interval estimation.     

Negative Dependence in Sampling

Abstract. The strong Rayleigh property is a new and robust negative dependence property that implies negative association; in fact it implies conditional negative association closed under external fields (CNA+). Suppose that and are two families of 0‐1 random variables that satisfy the strong Rayleigh property and let . We show that {Z_i} conditioned on is also strongly Rayleigh; this turns out to be an easy consequence of the results on preservation of stability of polynomials of Borcea & Brändén (Invent. Math., 177, 2009, 521–569). This entails that a number of important π ps sampling algorithms, including Sampford sampling and Pareto sampling, are CNA+. As a consequence, statistics based on such samples automatically satisfy a version of the Central Limit Theorem for triangular arrays.     

Consistency of maximum likelihood estimators in a large class of deconvolution models

We consider the maximum likelihood estimator $\hat{F}_n$ of a distribution function in a class of deconvolution models where the known density of the noise variable is of bounded variation. This class of noise densities contains in particular bounded, decreasing densities. The estimator $\hat{F}_n$ is defined, characterized in terms of Fenchel optimality conditions and computed. Under appropriate conditions, various consistency results for $\hat{F}_n$ are derived, including uniform strong consistency. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 98–110; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Estimating prediction error in microarray classification: Modifications of the 0.632+ bootstrap when ${\bf n} < {\bf p}$

We are interested in estimating prediction error for a classification model built on high dimensional genomic data when the number of genes (p) greatly exceeds the number of subjects (n). We examine a distance argument supporting the conventional 0.632+ bootstrap proposed for the $n > p$ scenario, modify it for the $n < p$ situation and develop learning curves to describe how the true prediction error varies with the number of subjects in the training set. The curves are then applied to define adjusted resampling estimates for the prediction error in order to achieve a balance in terms of bias and variability. The adjusted resampling methods are proposed as counterparts of the 0.632+ bootstrap when $n < p$ , and are found to improve on the 0.632+ bootstrap and other existing methods in the microarray study scenario when the sample size is small and there is some level of differential expression. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 41: 133–150; 2013 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

How Many Iterations are Sufficient for Efficient Semiparametric Estimation?

Abstract. A common practice in obtaining an efficient semiparametric estimate is through iteratively maximizing the (penalized) full log‐likelihood w.r.t. its Euclidean parameter and functional nuisance parameter. A rigorous theoretical study of this semiparametric iterative estimation approach is the main purpose of this study. We first show that the grid search algorithm produces an initial estimate with the proper convergence rate. Our second contribution is to provide a formula in calculating the minimal number of iterations k ^* needed to produce an efficient estimate . We discover that (i) k ^* depends on the convergence rates of the initial estimate and the nuisance functional estimate, and (ii) k ^* iterations are also sufficient for recovering the estimation sparsity in high dimensional data. The last contribution is the novel construction of which does not require knowing the explicit expression of the efficient score function. The above general conclusions apply to semiparametric models estimated under various regularizations, for example, kernel or penalized estimation. As far as we are aware, this study provides a first general theoretical justification for the ‘one‐/two‐step iteration’ phenomena observed in the semiparametric literature.     

Second‐order bias‐corrected AIC in multivariate normal linear models under non‐normality

This paper deals with a bias correction of Akaike's information criterion (AIC) for selecting variables in multivariate normal linear regression models when the true distribution of observation is an unknown non‐normal distribution. It is well known that the bias of AIC is $O(1)$ , and there are a number of the first‐order bias‐corrected AICs which improve the bias to $O(n^{-1})$ , where $n$ is the sample size. A new information criterion is proposed by slightly adjusting the first‐order bias‐corrected AIC. Although the adjustment is achieved by merely using constant coefficients, the bias of the new criterion is reduced to $O(n^{-2})$ . Then, a variance of the new criterion is also improved. Through numerical experiments, we verify that our criterion is superior to others. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 126–146; 2011 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of stochastically ordered survivor functions

This paper considers estimators of survivor functions subject to a stochastic ordering constraint based on right censored data. We present the constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (C‐NPMLE) of the survivor functions in one‐and two‐sample settings where the survivor distributions could be discrete or continuous and discuss the non‐uniqueness of the estimators. We also present a computationally efficient algorithm to obtain the C‐NPMLE. To address the possibility of non‐uniqueness of the C‐NPMLE of $S_1(t)$ when $S_1(t)\le S_2(t)$ , we consider the maximum C‐NPMLE (MC‐NPMLE) of $S_1(t)$ . In the one‐sample case with arbitrary upper bound survivor function $S_2(t)$ , we present a novel and efficient algorithm for finding the MC‐NPMLE of $S_1(t)$ . Dykstra ( 1982 ) also considered constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for such problems, however, as we show, Dykstra's method has an error and does not always give the C‐NPMLE. We corrected this error and simulation shows improvement in efficiency compared to Dykstra's estimator. Confidence intervals based on bootstrap methods are proposed and consistency of the estimators is proved. Data from a study on larynx cancer are analysed to illustrate the method. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 22–39; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada