Social change,population policies,and fertility decline in Colombia and Venezuela

This paper takes a comparative case-study approach to examine the social and policy correlates of fertility decline. The analysis compares fertility behavior across a mature and young cohort of women in Colombia and Venezuela, two countries that experienced rapid demographic change under dissimilar socioeconomic and population policy conditions. Based on the distinction between birth-spacing and birth-stopping behavior the analysis tests several propositions derived from the adaptation and innovation explanations of fertility decline. Results show that fertility regulation at low parities was largely absent among mature women in both countries, representing an innovative behavior among younger women. The introduction of fertility control, however, was highly dependent on women's socioeconomic position, particularly their educational and occupational characteristics. The strong family planning programs in Colombia resulted in a more rapid extension of contraceptive use, particularly female sterilization, and stopping behavior after two children relative to Venezuela. Results highlight the diversity of conditions under which fertility can decline in developing countries and the importance of family planning and other policy initiatives to understanding the different pathways towards lower fertility.     

A note on measuring the independent impact of family planning programs on fertility Declines

This note critically evaluates recent cross-national studies that estimate the independent effect of family planning programs on the fertility of the developing world. The evaluation demonstrates that past research is biased to produce overestimates of net program impact. A new estimate is derived to account more completely for the effects of the social context and socioeconomic development on fertility. This estimate indicates that 5 percent of the variation in crude birth rate decline for 89 developing countries is due to family planning programs. This is substantially less than past estimates.     

The one child certificate in Hebei province,China: Acceptance and consequence, 1979–1988

As part of its One Child Policy, China developed the one child certificate which offered numerous benefits to couples who had one child and promised to have no more. Using data from the Two-per-Thousand National Fertility Survey, this study describes the level of certificate acceptance in Hebei province from 1979 to 1988 and analyzes socioeconomic, cultural and early family formation factors affecting certificate acceptance as well as the role of certificate acceptance on transition to second parity. During the past decade, the level of initial certificate acceptance was 22.6 percent. This estimate is much lower than earlier published rates because it utilizes the concept of women at risk. Public resistance to the One Child Policy is evident in declining acceptance from 26.0 percent during the first five years of the policy to 11.3 percent during the 1984–1988 period. Women's response to the certificate has been influenced by the woman's status as reflected in education and occupation as well as cultural traditions, particularly son preference. The one child certificate, however, independently depresses subsequent fertility. This research indicates that efforts to understand fertility decline in China must simultaneously acknowledge the role of government family planning programs as well as socioeconomic and cultural factors.Revision of paper presented at the American Sociological Association Meeting, 1990.     

Socioeconomic determinants of China's urban fertility

This paper examines socioeconomic forces other than population policies and family planning programs that have affected the fertility transition in urban China. The authors argue that before and since the intensification of population planning activities, the government influenced fertility directly and indirectly through socialization of the economy, the transformation of the Chinese family, and the provision of education, employment, health, medical, welfare, cultural, and related services in urban areas. The various social institutions and subsystems of society have greatly weakened the motivation for large families. The byproducts of the slow urbanization process in urban China including housing shortages, unemployment, rising living standards, changes in the cost of raising a child, and urban-rural downward mobility have affected the social and economic costs of childbearing, which in turn have affected the postponement of childbearing. Thus, our considerations of urban China's fertility transition must be broadened to include the issues of social development strategy in Chinese urban experience.     

"发展-计划生育-生育率"的动态关系:中国省级数据再考察

顾宝昌在1987年利用省级数据考察了中国的生育率,通过路径分析得出社会经济发展和计划生育对中国生育率都有重要的直接影响的结论.李建民在2004年分析了我国低生育率的经济环境,提出1990年代我国生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果.基于这些结论或假设,本文利用中国省级数据,再次考察"发展-计划生育-生育率"关系,结果表明在过去30年里,计划生育的作用在下降,而社会经济发展的作用在增强.1970年代计划生育的作用是主导,1980年代计划生育与社会经济发展二者的作用基本达到了平衡,而1990年代社会经济发展的作用成为主导."发展-计划生育-生育率"关系呈献出一种动态平衡.     

The evaluation of China's population policy]

China's population policy has had tremendous effects on the reduction of fertility. The impact of the population policy is manifested in the following aspects. 1) Reducing the size of the total population by 200 million in 17 years. If the population growth rate had remained at its 1970 level of 2.6/1000, the total population would have been 1.28 billion in 1987. 2) The implementation of the population policy accelerated the process of demographic transition. The mortality decline which began in the early 1950s initiated the demographic transition. The Fertility decline began after the birth control policy was implemented and shifted the transition to a low population growth stage even before the socioeconomic conditions which are considered to be the determinants of fertility decline appeared. The fertility decline, in turn, promoted the socioeconomic development of the country. 3) Solving the problem of food; feeding 21.6% of the world's population on 7.1% of the world's farm land is no easy task. The success of population control, no doubt, played an important role in lowering the population growth rate so that the growth of food production could keep pace with the needs of the population. 4) A decline in the dependency ratio is a favorable condition to socioeconomic development. China's dependency ratio of 59.7 is among the lowest in developing countries and is close to the level in developed countries. Therefore, more production output can be used in investment rather than consumption. 5) The fertility decline facilitated a balanced economic growth. The ratio of population growth as compared to the growth of major economic indicators should be considered an important issue in maintaining macroeconomic control. The population policy made it possible for economic growth to surpass population growth.     

Approaches to the Fertility Transition in Victorian England

The secular decline of marital fertility which took place in late nineteenth and early twentieth-century England and Wales is considered by using a number of approaches. Among the theoretical approaches considered are those of transition models, and social diffusion. The former overemphasises the role of industrialization and urbanization; the latter is inappropriate when dealing with the development of a small-family ideal in Victorian society. Explanations of fertility decline using ecological and time-series analysis are considered. The registration districts of England and Wales provide the framework for analyses of spatial variations in marital fertility and its correlates in 1861, 1891 and 1911. A time-series analysis attempts to establish the sequential nature of social, economic and demographic changes during the sixty years preceding the First World War. The following points are emphasised in conclusion. The Victorian fertility transition was not directly related to the development of an urban-industrial society, the social diffusion of family ideals or the use of appliance methods of contraception. But its immediate cause was probably linked to the substantial increase in family planning literature available from the 1870s, and the challenge that this posed to the tradition of unlimited marital fertility. This critical change in social attitudes to family planning was facilitated both by developments in mass education and, ultimately by the decline of infant mortality.     

How economic development and family planning programs combined to reduce indonesian fertility

This paper examines the contributions of family planning programs, economic development, and women’s status to Indonesian fertility decline from 1982 to 1987. Methodologically we unify seemingly conflicting demographic and economic frameworks into a single “structural” proximate-cause model as well as controlling statistically for the targeted (nonrandom) placement of family planning program inputs. The results are consistent with both frameworks: 75% of the fertility decline resulted from increased contraceptive use, but was induced primarily through economic development and improved education and economic opportunities for females. Even so, the dramatic impact of the changes in demand-side factors (education and economic development) on contraceptive use was possible only because there already existed a highly responsive contraceptive supply delivery system.     

Rethinking the effectiveness of family planning in Africa

For the past 50 years there has been a near global consensus that the demands of development necessitate that couples reduce their fertility as a critical act which would jump start economic growth. This consensus heralded the era of the One Child policy and over 90% of least developed states continue to run programs which seek to induce lower fertility rates in their populations. However, a growing body of literature is questioning both the validity and utility of these interventions. This article seeks to contribute to the rethinking of family planning programs. Using new data on family planning scores from forty two African states this article shows that rates of fertility are unlikely to be affected by the strength of family planning programs at lower levels of development. However, at moderate levels of development, family planning programs may contribute to accelerating the decline in fertility initiated by exogenous factors. These findings offer a fresh perspective on the wide spread adoption of family planning policy that permeates the developing world.     

Does low fertility call for new policies in some Asian countries?

Over the past 2 decades, Japan, China, Singapore, Hong Kong, and South Korea have completed a demographic transition from high birth and death rates and runaway population growth to reduced fertility and mortality and population growth approaching replacement levels. Among the outcomes of fertility decline, 3 have particularly far reaching effects: 1) Changes in family types and structures. Marriage and family formation are postponed, childbearing is compressed into a narrow reproductive span that begins later and ends earlier, and higher-order births become rare. Large families are replaced by small ones, and joint and extended families tend to be replaced by nuclear families. 2) Shifts in the proportions of young and old. Declining fertility means that the population as a whole becomes older. Decreases in the proportion of children provides an opportunity to increase the coverage of education. Increases in the proportion of the elderly means higher medical costs and social and economic problems about care of the aged. 3) Changes in the work force. There is concern that low fertility and shortages of workers will cause investment labor-intensive industries to shift to countries with labor surpluses. Another outcome may be an increase in female participation in the work force. The potential consequences of rapid fertility decline have sparked debate among population experts and policy makers throughout Asia. Current family planning programs will emphasize: 1) offering a choice of methods to fit individual preferences; 2) strengthening programs for sexually active unmarried people; 3) encouraging child spacing and reproductive choice rather than simply limiting the number of births; 4) making information available on the side effects of various family planning methods; 5) providing special information and services to introduce new methods; and 6) promoting the maternal and child health benefits of breast feeding and birth spacing.     

Fertility Transition in China:A Zigzag and Splendid Course

Examining China’s population changes in the past three decades demonstrates that China’s demographic transition has been successfully completed with a splendid and zigzag path.There are profound historical experiences and lessons.This paper reviews China’s fertility transition which is divided into four periods and argues that fertility changes are a result of the interactions between socioeconomic development,fertility behaviors and fertility policies.Substantial resistance to the "one-childpolicy" during 1979 to 1984 resulted in rebounding and fluctuating fertility.The baby boom occurred in the period 1985 to 1991 was a manifestation of the inherent laws of demographic dynamics,and subsequently forceful birth control was again mobilized.The period from 1992 to 1999 witnessed large declines in fertility which penetrates the replacement zone,showing that China was completing the fertility transition.China’s stabilizing low fertility and emerging population structural issues since 2000 call for comprehensive ways in addressing the population problems.     

Population growth,economic development and family planning

This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.     

Strength of fertility motivation and contraceptive use in Nepal

The study's purpose was to test whether new survey questions on strength of fertility motivation, included in Nepal's 1986 Fertility and Family Planning Survey, enable improved prediction of current contraceptive use. Intent to use contraception in the future was also tested, over and above the effects of socioeconomic background. While controlling selected demographic and socioeconomic background characteristics of the respondents, the authors found the effect of the strength of fertility motivation on current contraceptive use to be substantial and highly significant statistically. Nevertheless, the background factors largely captured the effect of motivational strength on current use when motivational strength was deleted from the model, inasmuch as measures of global fit declined only slightly as a consequence of the deletion. These findings indicate that respondents' demographic and socioeconomic background characteristics affect motivational strength, so that motivational strength does not have a large independent effect on use. These results raise the question of whether strength of fertility motivation can be affected by educational efforts mounted by family planning programs to increase contraceptive use. The analysis shows that strength of motivation does have some independent effect on contraceptive use, and it is quite possible that this independent effect could be enhanced by educational programs operating independently of the socioeconomic characteristics of program recipients. Because the 1986 survey lacks relevant data, we have not been able to explore this possibility empirically.     

Towards a unified approach in macro and micro-level planning

A forum was held among population experts in the ESCAP region to discuss ways of integrating complex, macro-modular planning with micro-level, community-based population programs. The experts mentioned types of planned development projects which might have the greatest impact on fertility rates. The issue of whether population reduction targets are influenced by socioeconomic considerations or whether they, in turn, exert an influence was debated. Examples of programs from the People's Republic of China, the Republic of Korea, and the Philippines were cited to point up areas where population and socioeconomic development programs are integrated. Model building and community participation were mentioned as 2 approaches to development planning.     

生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变

自改革开放以来 ,我国人口生育率水平出现了迅速的转变 ,特别是 1 992年我国确立了市场经济为目标的经济改革以来 ,生育率水平更是进一步降低到更替水平以下。如果说 ,生育率的迅速转变是在国家计划生育政策干预下启动的 ,那么 ,在 1 990年代生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。以市场经济为导向的经济改革和经济的迅速发展 ,已经为稳定我国城市地区人口低生育率水平提供了必要的经济条件 ,同时 ,制度、技术和文化等因素的变革已经为我国个人生育决策理性化创造了条件 ,低生育水平的稳定机制已经开始从政策控制为主转向群众自我控制为主的转变     

Population growth and poverty in the developing world

The links between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty currently affecting 780 million people in the developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) were examined. Absolute poverty is defined as having less than the income necessary to ensure a daily diet of 2150 calories per person ($200 per person a year in 1970 United States dollars). Focus is on poverty and demography in the developing world (defining poverty; income, fertility and life expectancy; demographic change and poverty), effect of poverty on fertility, family planning programs and the poor, and the outlook for the future. Rapid population growth stretches both national and family budgets thin with the increasing numbers of children to be fed and educated and workers to be provided with jobs. Slower per capita income growth, lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and more poverty are the probable consequences. Many characteristics of poverty can cause high fertility -- high infant mortality, lack of education for women in particular, too little family income to invest in children, inequitable shares in national income, and the inaccessibility of family planning. Experience in China, Indonesia, Taiwan, Colombia, Korea, Sri Lanka, Cuba and Costa Rica demonstrate that birthrates can decline rapidly in low income groups and countries when basic health care, education, and low-cost or free family planning services are made widely available.     

Economic motives for family limitation

Abstract Taiwan can boast one of the most rapid rates of economic development in the world over the past 20 years. Taiwan is also in the midst of the demographic transition. The nature of the connection between economic development and the onset and progress of the fertility decline is far from clear, however. Rather than explore the relation between income and fertility change, this paper will be concerned with some of the economic motivations which may be responsible for fertility decline during the demographic transition. Inquiries in this area have been handicapped by having to rely on aggregative or on household data which included only a very limited set of economic variables (other than income) along with demographic data. In order to re-examine the linkages between economic change and fertility change at the family level, a special survey was conducted in Taiwan in 1969. While recognizing that economic factors are not wholly, perhaps not even primarily, responsible for the lowering of the birth rate, the central interest of this paper is the complex of cost and benefit considerations which may contribute to a decline of the rate, using the new data for Taiwan.     

An analysis of major proximate determinants of our fertility]

The sample survey of fertility, in Shanghai city and Shanxi and Hebei provinces of China in 1985, provided plentiful data about fertility, marriage, contraceptive usage and breastfeeding in terms of The World Fertility Survey Model. The data, along with Bongaarts' model, was utilized to analyze the relation between several proximate determinants and fertility changes. When comparing these three geographic areas, the largest difference was breastfeeding and the smallest one was non- contraceptive usage. It was very different from the results of The World Fertility Survey in developing countries in 1977. The difference of marriage indexes among three areas was close to that of breastfeeding; but for the effects on induction of fertility, marriage index surpassed breastfeeding. There were two models showing effective efficacy on fertility decline. One was the Shanghai model, in which much more effect came from marriage delay, accounting for 71%; another was the Hebei model, induction of fertility was caused by contraceptive usage, about 53%. Both indicated that the major factor affecting fertility decline was the family planning program. Otherwise, it seemed to indicate that different factors such as social, economic development indirectly decreased fertility through family planning programs.     

Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He proposes a three‐stage “soft‐landing” strategy for fertility policy transition: (1) a 7‐year initial smooth transition period; (2) from approximately 2014‐15 to 2032‐35 a universal two‐child policy combined with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032‐35 all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to keeping the current policy unchanged.