Global Economy and Gender Inequalities: The Case of the Urban Chinese Labor Market*

Objectives. This article examines the effects of economic globalization on gender inequalities in urban China. It argues that the significance of economic globalization on gender inequality depends on its impact on job queues in the labor market of a country. Methods. Using both individual‐ and city‐level data, and a series of multilevel linear and logistic models, we analyze the effects of three city‐level variables on the gender gap in income: foreign direct investment (FDI) per capita, growth rate of FDI, and opening up to overseas investment early on. We also examine gender differences in employment in high‐paying foreign‐invested firms, and in lower‐paying export‐oriented manufacturing. Results. We find no variation in gender gap in income among cities of varying levels of FDI, growth rates of FDI, or whether they were among the earliest to open up to international investment. Women are more likely to be employed in export‐oriented manufacturing industries that offer lower wages and are less likely to work in high‐paying foreign firms and joint ventures. Conclusions. These results suggest that economic globalization profoundly influences gender inequalities by changing the nature of job queues, and men and women are sorted and matched into jobs accordingly. Economic globalization contributed to and perpetuated a gendered distribution of male and female workers in the Chinese urban labor market in the late 1990s.     

Trade frictions and productivity performance—Technological, Price, and cost competitiveness of Japan and U.S. exports

Over the last two decades Japanese industry has increased its share of world exports, and hence their competitiveness, while U.S. industry has declined in shares and competitive position. Focusing on cost competitiveness of Japanese and U.S. manufacturing exports, a model was developed to explain relative export performace of the two countries by relative technological progress and the resulting cost advantage. It is shown that technological progress and cost factors are important in determining relative exports of the two countries. It is also indicated, however, that problems for U.S. export industries in particular are not only their slower productivity growth, relative to Japanese industries, but also the lack of association of their productivity growth and cost factors with their export growth.     

论东北地区外贸发展方式创新

外贸发展方式创新,是我国"十二五"时期经济发展方式转变的重大而关键的任务。长期以来,东北地区外贸发展主要依据传统的比较优势理论,以出口数量扩张、劳动密集型产品出口和低价格战略形成竞争优势。目前,面临后金融危机影响,全球经济增长乏力、大宗商品价格高企、资源环境压力加大、出口难度增加,更显露出其粗放性和难以持续性。东北地区外贸发展亟待打破原有传统贸易理论束缚,创新外贸发展方式,即从扩大出口创汇转向提高经济效益上来,从粗放式增长转向集约式增长上来,从出口创汇型转向依靠国际化经营能力上来。要遵循国际贸易规则,创新对外贸易制度安排;发挥东北地区优势,开拓多元化国际市场;优化出口产品结构,积极引导产业升级;加强与周边国家和地区的合作,促进外贸经济协调发展;集合各方力量,积极应对贸易摩擦。     

中日韩三国劳动力结构比较分析及启示

日本、韩国与我国是东北亚地区的主要国家,在互相交流的同时,三国之间又相互产生影响.通过比较分析可知,日本、韩国的劳动力在劳动力就业结构、行业结构、受教育程度等方面与我国不同,这主要是因为日韩两国针对各自国家劳动力结构问题采取了相应措施,特别是在雇佣外国劳动力、加强教育培训、农村剩余劳动力转移等方面的经验、对策对我国改善劳动力就业结构具有借鉴意义.     

A Study of an Industrialization Strategy for China’s Upper-Middle Income Stage

When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage, their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity (TFP). This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics, which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth. When China became a middle-income country, its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period, exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward “premature deindustrialization” that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap. Accelerating China’s development as a manufacturing power, advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country’s industrial development strategy.     

The role of macroeconomic policies in the global crisis

This paper argues that the lack of timely and decisive policy action to correct domestic and external imbalances contributed crucially to the build-up of financial excesses that led to the financial crisis and the Great Recession. We focus on 2002–2007 and perform a number of counterfactual simulations to investigate two central elements of the story, namely: (a) an over-expansionary US monetary policy and the absence of effective macro-prudential supervision, which permitted a prolonged expansion of debt-financed consumer spending and (b) the choice by China and other emerging countries to pursue an export-led growth strategy supported by pegging their currencies to the US dollar, in conjunction with sluggish domestic demand in major advanced economies characterized by low potential output growth. The results of the simulations lend support to the view that if substantial, globally coordinated demand rebalancing had been undertaken early on, the macroeconomic and financial imbalances would not have accumulated to the extent that they did and the financial turmoil might have had less drastic global consequences.     

改革开放以来中国对外开放战略的变革

我国以往的对外开放战略基于扩大出口、引进外资以及国家控制外汇。这种开放战略导致国际收支严重失衡,央行大量发行人民币,最终引发价格全面上涨。因此,我国未来的对外开放战略应转为追求国际收支平衡和外汇体制的自由。     

The Transnational Organization of Production and Environmental Degradation: A Cross‐National Study of the Effects of Foreign Capital Penetration on Water Pollution Intensity, 1980–1995*

Objective. This study attempts to increase our understanding of the environmental impacts of the transnational organization of production in the context of foreign capital penetration. Methods. With a sample of 53 countries, panel analyses using OLS and robust regression are conducted to assess the effects of foreign direct investment in the manufacturing sector on growth in organic water pollution intensity, 1980–1995. Slope‐dummy interaction variables are used to compare the effects in developed countries and less‐developed countries. The tested models include a variety of relevant controls, such as domestic investment, state environmentalism, size of the manufacturing sector, and level of economic development. Results. Findings for the analyses indicate that foreign direct investment in manufacturing positively affects growth in organic water pollution intensity in less‐developed countries, while the effect in developed countries is nonsignificant. Conclusions. This research illustrates the need for social scientists to investigate the environmental impacts of both the transnational organization of production and the overall scale of production in different sectors.     

Trade liberalization and industry performance in Bangladesh

This paper analyzes trade liberalization's impact on Bangladesh's manufacturing sector performance. Using firm level input and output data and employing a nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA), we calculate technical, pure technical and allocative efficiencies for a sample of 82 firms collected over two periods of time: 1993 and 1998. Then, applying a Malmquist index method, we calculate indices of total factor productivity change and decompose them into technological change, technical efficiency change and scale efficiency change. Our results show that the majority of Bangladeshi manufacturing firms experienced a positive total factor productivity growth between 1993 and 1998, averaging 29% over a five-year period. Export-oriented firms have performed better than import-oriented firms in improving their technical efficiency relative to the best-practice firms in their own sub-group. When these results are compared with the official statistics on the output performance of manufacturing firms, we can conclude that trade liberalization in the 1990s did not adversely affect the Bangladeshi manufacturing industry.     

江苏省地级市制造业排名及国际化研究—基于13个地级市的比较研究

作为中国制造业强省综合排名第一的江苏省,其制造业发展总体水平较高,但省内各个地级市之间的区域差距较大,这与各个城市的国际化程度密切相关。为了推进江苏制造业向更高层次、更均衡方向发展,需要各个地级市充分发挥自身优势,采取更为积极的国际化策略。运用因子分析法分析13个地级市制造业的国际化状况。各个城市不同的国际化策略导致省内制造业发展不均衡。各城市运用国际化策略推动制造业发展的不同路径。     

外商直接投资对广西出口竞争力影响的实证分析

通过外商直接投资对出口竞争力影响的效应分析,对广西FDI对出口竞争力进行了竞争实力与竞争潜力两方面的实证分析,即分别对国际市场占有率、出口促进、出口产品技术水平、TC指数、RCA指数、贸易创造指数、技术外溢效应等进行实证分析,提出了引入价值增值率更高的生产环节的外商投资,利用FDI培育内生技术能力的政策选择,形成贸易、外资与产业政策合力等对策建议,最大限度地利用FDI促进广西出口竞争力的发展。     

限制与反限制:韩日半导体贸易摩擦中的双边博弈

2019年7月1日,日本政府的经济产业省宣布日韩两国间的信任很大程度上受到了严重损害,同时正式发表只能修改对韩方的出口管理规定。然后,自同年7月4日起,针对半导体等对韩国主要出口产品的生产过程中必需的超精密化学原料——光刻胶、氟化氢、氟聚酰亚胺三种产品开始实行新出口限制。据部分专家们的主张,日本政府通过新出口限制措施对韩国的半导体大型企业进行一种“牵制”或“报复”,这种分析和判断确实有些说服力。但是,这种分析与事实不符,因为这次日本政府做出新出口限制措施,究其原因在于2018年10月30日韩国大法院的判决,并非是因为韩国半导体大型企业的崛起。本文将对韩日两国半导体贸易摩擦中的双边博弈进行深入研究。     

出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁出口的影响分析

我国是钢铁生产大国、贸易大国,同时面临着高投入、高排放等诸多问题。“十一五”期间,国家采取了调整出口退税率等措施来限制“两高一资”产品的出口。回顾我国钢铁行业1994年以来出口退税率的调整变化,运用计量经济学模型,采用月度数据分析2004年-2010年出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁行业出口的影响。研究显示,出口退税率的调整对我国钢铁出口量存在微小的长期正向影响,短期作用效果不显著;国外需求因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用最突出,无论在长期或短期影响都非常显著;汇率、价格因素对钢铁出口的刺激作用其次,只存在长期均衡关系。     

“康乾盛世”真的存在吗?——基于经济数据测算的分析

康雍乾三朝在我国历史上是颇具争议的一个时期,学界对"康乾盛世"是否真的存在尚存争议。文章测算了康乾时期人口、粮食产量、财政收入和进出口贸易等四个方面的经济数据,发现康乾时期的人口和粮食产量呈快速增长态势,年均增长率分别达到8.37‰和6.13‰;财政收入和进出口贸易均有所增长。但与同时期英国的横向比较可知,无论从存量还是从增速来看均具有较大差距。此外,研究还发现,康乾时期我国的科学技术水平不高、生产力水平低下、军事实力不强、文化事业停滞不前,政治制度阻碍了经济社会的发展。基于此,"康乾盛世"并不存在。     

Do-It-Yourself Social Policy: Searching for a New Paradigm?

One of the most significant trends of recent decades has been the growing importance of do-it-yourself social policy: i.e. individuals constructing their own welfare mix both within the public sector and in private markets. This paper argues that this challenges the traditional top-down bias of social policy studies and requires a shift of focus within the discipline. The implications for normative theory, research strategy and policy analysis are explored. Some of the arguments for and against choice as a guiding principle are sketched out; some existing research on benefit take-up and choice in education and health is reviewed and the case for moving away from the economist's simple model of rationality is put forward. Finally, we argue, there should be more emphasis in social policy on developing a better understanding of the way in which individuals take their decisions, the context of public policy within which they act and the interaction between the two.     

Federal Defense Spending and Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Disparities in Economic Growth in the Southeast*

Objective. This study examines how defense spending in the 1980s and early 1990s affected economic growth in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties in the southeast. Methods. Using county‐level Census and other government data, the study employs a spatial lag regression model to predict how defense spending interacts with manufacturing growth to affect county economic growth during the business cycles of the 1980s and early 1990s, while controlling for other measures of regional processes. I supplement the regression analysis with brief case studies of five counties in this region. Results. The analysis shows that there is a positive interaction effect between federal defense spending and manufacturing growth on measures of income and employment growth. However, the interaction effects are much stronger and more consistent in metropolitan counties. Conclusion. As predicted, defense spending created regional variations in economic growth across the metropolitan‐nonmetropolitan divide in the southeast during the business cycles of the 1980s and early 1990s. Moreover, documented economic growth in nonmetropolitan counties is partly a function of spatial integration with metropolitan counties. The results have implications for current trends in defense spending.     

Direct foreign investment in mining and manufacturing in underdeveloped states

Does direct foreign investment in underdeveloped countries help or hinder economic growth? Is the effect the same for investment in mining as it is in manufacturing? Does it affect agriculture, transportation, manufacturing, and communications sectors the same? Analysis of 84 countries in Africa and Latin America shows that foreign investment generally promotes growth, especially in the manufacturing, transportation, and communications sectors. Mining investment has little effect. Lags of three, six, and nine years often change the impact.     

State–business relations,foreign aid,and development: a comparative study of Ghana and South Korea

This study examines aid, state–business relations, and development in Ghana and South Korea. In 1957, when Ghana achieved independence, Ghana and South Korea shared approximately similar levels of GDP per capita. However, while South Korea has successfully transformed itself from a major recipient to a donor country and enjoys advanced economic growth and a high standard of living, Ghana—despite visible growth in recent decades—remains a low-income and aid-dependent country. In this study, focusing on policies that guide state–business relations and their impact on economic development, we examine the extent to which foreign aid played a role in shaping state–business relations and building (or failing to build) public–private development partnerships in South Korea and Ghana. More specifically, we argue that fundamentally in South Korea, through enabling national development policies, state and business worked together to achieve economic development; for Ghana, the local business sector was inadequately integrated as an economic development partner with the state, which explains the less than outstanding performance of various state-led development projects in Ghana in much of the last 50 years. In addition, we argue that in the case of South Korea, aid was used effectively to support and build local business groups, while in Ghana aid has largely failed to boost the private sector, a key factor explaining the divergent paths of aid and development outcomes between the two countries.     

Developments in and prospects for external debt position and burden of developing countries: The case of Korea

The delay of strong economic recovery by industrialized nations, slowed world export growth, and higher interest rates have worsened the financial situation of a number of developing countries which have relied on external borrowings to sustain current account deficits and protect economic development. Recently, well-publicized concerns over the ability to these countries to repay their considerable debt burden have been raised. To shed light on these concerns, the paper focuses on Korea—one of the heavier debt-holding countries. It describes the process through which Korea has acquired its external debt over the past decade, assesses the trends in its debt burden, and presents prospects for the period 1982–1986. Using the Korean experience, the paper shows that the most common indicators used for evaluating foreign debt burden, such as the long-term service ratio, need to be supplemented by other measurements. In a world economy characterized by short-term debts with variable interest rates, the paper suggests that an important tool in analyzing the external debt burden should be the short-term debt burden.     

Public investment in care services in Turkey: Promoting employment & gender inclusive growth

Recent policy debates on macroeconomic tools to counteract the prolonged global economic recession point to the potential of fiscal policies with appropriate sectoral targets for simultaneously boosting effective demand while alleviating inequalities through employment generation. This paper contributes to the debate by pointing to the social care services sector –in particular early childhood education and care (ECEC) — as an effective target of fiscal spending for robust employment generation and gender inclusive growth. We use a macro-micro simulation model to examine the aggregate and gender employment impact of increasing public expenditures on ECEC services, an underdeveloped sector in Turkey versus physical infrastructure and construction, a common target of stimulatory spending. Our methodological approach combines input-output analysis on aggregate employment effects with a statistical microsimulation approach to assess distributional outcomes. We find that an expansion of ECEC services creates not only significantly more jobs but also does so in a more gender-equitable and fiscally sustainable way than the a construction boom.