On the Rank-Based Selection Strategy for the Group Interview Problem*

For the so-called group interview problem in which several groups of choice alternatives are presented sequentially to the decision maker, the optimal selection strategy is derived that minimizes the expected rank of the selected choice or purchased product. For the case in which the sequence of groups can be rearranged by the decision maker, a simple heuristic procedure is proposed for obtaining a near-optimal sequence of groups, and the performance of the heuristic procedure in a Monte Carlo simulation is accessed. According to the heuristic procedure, the consumer is advised to visit smaller stores first and then move to larger stores later to increase the likelihood of finding a better product. Finally, the optimal selection strategy and the heuristic procedure are compared with those proposed by Chun, Moskowitz, and Plante (1993) and the problem of locating a new store in an area where there are several competing stores is discussed. The optimal selection strategy and the heuristic procedure can be applied to many sequential decision problems such as the consumer search and purchase process.     

消费者选择中后悔和不确定性的作用研究

研究当消费者对产品绩效的期望不确定性时,后悔如何影响消费选择的动态变化.数学分析和实验结果表明,当消费者观察或体验到的各个产品选项的表现与原先的期望相吻合,风险厌恶型消费者倾向于提高对初始期望绩效不确定性较高的产品的购买意愿,而风险喜好型消费者倾向于降低对该产品的购买意愿.另外,期望绩效水平的不确定性对消费选择的影响会随消费者经验值的增加而减小.研究成果弥补了现有期望差异理论对解释消费行为动态变化的不足.因此,为了更加全面地理解在多选项选择问题中后悔对消费选择的动态影响,管理者需要考虑备选产品在期望绩效水平不确定性上的差异、相关消费市场的顾客风险偏好构成、消费者的购买经验等特征.     

Stressed by Choice: a Business Model Analysis of the BBC

This paper aims to explain the recent defensive strategy of downsizing at the BBC. The paper rejects the analysis of both industry practitioner and neoclassical economics academic critics who represent the corporation as an all-powerful, abusive player in a market and instead develops an alternative concept of the business model, which focuses the pressures of financial viability and stakeholder credibility to explain the restructuring. We argue that the BBC's business model is stressed because it struggles to deliver what key stakeholders want and expect from the corporation, from a pot of revenue that is limited by regulation. The BBC's problem is compounded by demands for more programming hours following its move into digital and by the increasingly formalized demands of regulators on behalf of an absent consumer. The paper concludes that without reflexive, business-model-centred regulation, it is likely that the BBC's business model will become unsustainable.     

Consumer Behaviour and Order Fulfilment in Online Retailing: A Systematic Review

This paper provides a systematic review of consumer behaviour and order fulfilment in online retailing. The objective of this review is threefold: first, to identify elements of order‐fulfilment operations that are relevant to online consumer behaviour (purchase, repurchase, product return); second, to understand the relationship between order‐fulfilment performance and consumer behaviour; and third, to inspire future research on developing consumer service strategies that takes account of these behavioural responses to order‐fulfilment performance outcomes. The paper is based on a systematic review of literature on online consumer behaviour and order‐fulfilment operations, mainly in the fields of marketing and operations, published in international peer‐reviewed journals between 2000 and September 2015. This study indicates that the current literature on online consumer behaviour focuses mainly on the use of marketing tools to improve consumer service levels. Very little research has been conducted on the use of consumer service instruments to steer consumer behaviour or, consequently, to manage related order‐fulfilment activities better. The study culminates in a framework that encompasses elements of order‐fulfilment operations and their relationship to online consumer behaviour. This paper is the first comprehensive review of online consumer behaviour that takes aspects of order‐fulfilment operations into account from both marketing and operations perspectives.     

The Dynamics of Pre‐ and Post‐purchase Service and Consumer Evaluation of Online Retailers: A Comparative Analysis of Dissonance and Disconfirmation Models*

This article explores the theoretical underpinnings of the dissonance framework in online consumer satisfaction formation process. Specifically, we suggest that any discrepancy between pre‐ and post‐purchase service performance would help determine consumers’ evaluations of online vendors. Drawing upon cognitive dissonance theory, a conceptual model is developed and tested in two different studies (preliminary and main studies). Using data from 191 college students collected longitudinally, the preliminary study demonstrates the validity and reliability of the measurements. Using a comparative analysis, the main study then tests our conceptual model as well as various competing models, including the expectation–confirmation model, with a sample of 292 online consumers. The results in both studies support our main prediction that the service encountered in different stages establishes dissonance. Specifically, we find that dissonance explains online consumers’ satisfaction process to a substantial extent, as compared with disconfirmation under the same conditions in online retailers. This study contributes to providing an alternative yet substantial approach for expectation–confirmation theory, reflecting the overarching nature of online shopping.     

A review of the evolutionary approach to the study of entrepreneurship

A number of more contextual and process‐oriented approaches have been followed recently in entrepreneurial research, including the cognitive approach, the learning approach and the evolutionary approach. This paper reviews the evolutionary approach to the study of entrepreneurship. This includes an overview of evolutionary theory and the arguments behind its relevance to the study of socio‐economics systems, as well as a review of the application of evolutionary theory to the study of entrepreneurship at both the population level (population ecology) and the organizational level (strategic choice). The reconciliation of these two perspectives is discussed, and comparisons are made with the cognition‐based and learning‐based approaches. It is argued in this paper that an evolutionary approach to the study of entrepreneurship leads to more theory‐driven research with a strong focus on process and context. In addition, it offers more than both the cognition‐based and learning‐based approaches because it allows for multi‐level analyses of the new venture creation process, encompassing both the population ecology (population level) and strategic choice (organizational level) perspective, and the resultant interactions between both hierarchies, giving valuable insight into the same overall evolutionary process.     

Energy modelling for technology assessment: the MARKAL approach

The primary objective of energy policy in many countries is to change the structure of their energy systems so as to reduce the dependence on imported oil. A large amount of funds is spent on energy research and development. The technologies competing for such funds have widely varying characteristics. These relate to costs and benefits, technical performance, environmental effects, the requirements for land, water and materials and the impact on employment. It is necessary to analyse these effects in some detail before decisions on technology programmes can be made. A complete assessment of the possible value of a particular technology cannot be made on an individual basis. It is necessary to consider many technologies simultaneously, competing against each other for various shares of the energy market. However, analysing the behaviour of the entire energy system requires the handling of an extensive amount of data and can only be done effectively with the help of a computerised system. The model, MARKAL, described in this paper is a multi-period linear programming model which has been developed and applied by 15 OECD countries for the purpose of energy technology research and development planning. Examples of the use of the model for this purpose are given both for the group as a whole and for individual countries. The model is structured so that an exogenously specified set of end-use demands must be satisfied given available technologies and energy supplies. The model allows for substitution possibilities in both the energy supply and demand sectors. A feature of the model is the use of varying objective functions such as minimum discounted costs, oil imports, or environmental effluents. These can be used individually or in combination in trade-off situations. The broader question of the use of energy modelling for technology assessment, including its limitations, is also discussed with particular reference to the insights that can be gained from the MARKAL model. Information from the MARKAL model has been used by the International Energy Agency to assist it in formulating a strategy for energy research development and demonstration.     

Advertising in Asymmetric Competing Supply Chains

Advertising is a crucial tool for demand creation and market expansion. When a manufacturer uses a retailer as a channel for reaching end customers, the advertising strategy takes on an additional dimension: which party will perform the advertising to end customers. Cost sharing (“co‐operative advertising”) arrangements proliferate the option by decoupling the execution of the advertising from its funding. We examine the efficacy of cost sharing in a model of two competing manufacturer–retailer supply chains who sell partially substitutable products that may differ in market size. Some counterintuitive findings suggest that the firms performing the advertising would rather bear the costs entirely if this protects their unit profit margin. We also evaluate the implications of advertising strategy for overall supply chain efficiency and consumer welfare.     

异质品双渠道供应链下制造商的渠道决策研究

研究由两个制造商、两个零售商以及消费者组成的双渠道供应链,制造商的最优产品分销渠道策略问题,通过构建Stackelberg主从动态博弈模型,分析制造商在不同渠道选择下的产品质量水平及定价决策,消费者三种不同渠道偏好下渠道竞争和品牌竞争激烈程度对制造商渠道选择均衡结果及帕累托最优选择的影响,以及对产品质量水平、产品价格、制造商及零售商利润的影响.研究表明：品牌和渠道双重竞争下,两种竞争之间存在相互作用的关系,并共同影响制造商最终渠道选择,制造商通过权衡价格决策的后动优势与消费者渠道偏好对其利润的贡献选择是否开辟双渠道,产品价格与产品质量水平正相关,与产品的替代率负相关,产品质量水平对渠道价格的影响程度等于消费者对该渠道的偏好程度.当消费者偏好某一渠道时,制造商可在该渠道上的产品采取优质高价策略,但渠道上产品性价比降低,当品牌竞争越激烈,产品价格越低,对制造商和零售商的利润挤压越严重.     

认知偏差、债务政策选择偏好和资本结构税收效应

本文针对管理者认知偏差对其债务政策选择的影响问题进行研究,通过建立认知偏差影响下的最优资本结构决策模型,从行为金融学的角度研究了债务政策选择的税收效应,并以中国上市公司2006-2009年的数据为样本,使用多元回归分析等方法对相关结论进行了实证检验。研究表明:上市公司的债务政策受到了认知偏差的影响,即随着财务困境成本的不断增大,上市公司对其变化的敏感性不断降低;认知偏差严重时,上市公司会选择过度保守负债或过度积极负债,导致最优资本结构与税率无关;认知偏差不严重时,上市公司会选择适度负债,且负债水平与税率正相关。结论表明中国上市公司需要更为客观地评价财务困境成本,更为理性地利用负债的税收收益,尽可能避免认知偏差对企业价值的损害。     

How Organizational Cognitive Neuroscience Can Deepen Understanding of Managerial Decision‐making: A Review of the Recent Literature and Future Directions

There is growing interest in exploring the potential links between human biology and management and organization studies, which is bringing greater attention to bear on the place of mental processes in explaining human behaviour and effectiveness. The authors define this new field as organizational cognitive neuroscience (OCN), which is in the exploratory phase of its emergence and diffusion. It is clear that there are methodological debates and issues associated with OCN research, and the aim of this paper is to illuminate these concerns, and provide a roadmap for rigorous and relevant future work in the area. To this end, the current reach of OCN is investigated by the systematic review methodology, revealing three clusters of activity, covering the fields of economics, marketing and organizational behaviour. Among these clusters, organizational behaviour seems to be an outlier, owing to its far greater variety of empirical work, which the authors argue is largely a result of the plurality of research methods that have taken root within this field. Nevertheless, all three clusters contribute to a greater understanding of the biological mechanisms that mediate choice and decision‐making. The paper concludes that OCN research has already provided important insights regarding the boundaries surrounding human freedom to act in various domains and, in turn, self‐determination to influence the workplace. However, there is much to be done, and emerging research of significant interest is highlighted.     

供应链中断下顾客缺货反应对牛鞭效应的影响研究

传统的关于供应链牛鞭效应的研究,仅关注供应链上游成员间（供应商、制造商或零售商）的协调运作,而忽略缺货发生后顾客缺货反应对供应链动态性的影响。本文利用高层级Petri-net对包含两个制造商、两个零售商的供应链系统进行建模与仿真,定量地研究不同的缺货强度下顾客缺货反应对两条相互竞争的供应链牛鞭效应的影响。研究结果表明,顾客缺货反应对缺货品牌及其竞争品牌的牛鞭效应均存在显著影响,但各种缺货反应对牛鞭效应的影响程度有所差异,且供应链中断强度（主要体现为发生缺货的品牌市场份额以及缺货持续时间）亦对牛鞭效应产生显著影响。我们建议不同产品类型（对应不同的顾客反应组合）的管理者根据品牌的市场占有率、缺货持续时间等因素对不同类型的顾客进行购买行为的引导,以缓解牛鞭效应并保持市场份额。     

On Pricing and Composition of Bundles

This paper addresses the problem of how to determine the composition and price of a bundle so as to maximize the total expected profit. To motivate the problem, we use as a setting a high‐tech manufacturing company that operates in a competitive environment, is not a leader in the industry, and is constantly reacting to bundles introduced by the leader. Bundles are sets of components that must meet technical constraints. The company's objective is to build a bundle and offer it in a market where it will compete with other bundles. Consumers purchase the bundle that maximizes their utility after examining all available bundles. The company selection of the bundle's components and its price is made in light of the bundles against which it will be competing and the uncertainty in the consumer choice process. The optimal decision could be found by solving a nonlinear mixed integer program, which is difficult to solve. Instead, we propose an efficient solution procedure to determine the optimal composition of the bundle and the price at which it should be offered. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of extensions of the research to cases that consider multiple segments of customers and/or multiple bundles.     

政府治理视角下平台电商信用监管的动态演化博弈研究

为破解不完全信息下平台电商的信用“监管困局”,本研究在平台电商、消费者与政府三元主体联动关系的基础上,分别构建政府动态惩罚机制与激励机制下平台电商与消费者的演化博弈模型,并分析平台电商与消费者之间策略选择的影响因素及演化路径。研究表明：在政府监管下,平台电商与消费者通过长期的反复博弈、调整的过程,最终博弈系统演化轨迹呈逐渐收敛的趋势。具体而言,政府动态惩罚机制下,当政府惩罚力度逐渐增加时,平台电商倾向于选择“自律”策略;政府动态激励机制下,当政府对平台电商的激励逐渐增加时,平台电商倾向于选择“自律”策略。更为重要的是,当政府的惩罚力度大于激励政策力度时,政府实施惩罚性政策但没有激励政策的效果要优于政府实施激励政策但不实施惩罚性政策的效果。而当政府的惩罚力度小于激励政策力度时,政府实施激励政策但不实施惩罚性政策的效果与政府实施惩罚性政策但没有激励政策的效果几乎接近。由此可见,政府应将惩罚机制与激励机制相结合适度监管,以此追求信用监管的动态平衡。另外,消费者对平台电商的声誉评价具有两面性：当消费者对平台电商声誉评价越高时,平台电商倾向于选择“自律”策略;而消费者对平台电商声誉评价越低,平台电商反而倾向于选择“不自律”策略。     

DYNAMIC DISAGGREGATE CHOICE MODELS,WITH AN APPLICATION IN TRANSPORTATION

A standard assumption of disaggregate mode-choice models is that an individual faced with a choice among several available alternative transportation modes compares their utilities. These utilities are almost always expressed as a linear composite measure of various perceived benefits which are assumed constant. However, the individual's perceptions change as he learns, acquires new habits, or adapts to different physical, economic, and social circumstances. In order to account for these changes, two dynamic models of model-choice behavior are developed herein. These two models are based on two common postulates. (1) One alternative is preferred over another only if the absolute difference in their utilities exceeds a positive constant; otherwise, the decision maker is indifferent toward the two alternatives. (2) If an alternative is preferred, it will be chosen with certainty. In the indifference state, the individual is postulated to randomly choose one of the two alternatives (Model 1) or choose the same alternative as was most recently chosen (Model 2). Choice probabilities derived from these two models are shown to differ from those obtained using the conventional logit model. If there is a strong loyalty toward a mode, the logit model underestimates its choice probability when that mode is less attractive than the competing mode. The results are illustrated using numerical examples.     

Make,buy or both? R&D strategy selection

The aim of this paper is to increase our knowledge of a firm's innovative behaviour by jointly analysing its internal resources, industry characteristics and appropriability conditions as drivers of its R&D strategy selection: make, buy and make-buy. Based on panel data (1992–2005) covering 1539 Spanish manufacturing firms, results show that firms lacking organisational resources and competing in stable markets prefer the buy strategy. Firms with a high level of technological resources that are immersed in high-tech industries are prone to selecting the make-buy strategy. Internationalised firms with high levels of appropriability prefer the make strategy.     

REPLICATION OF A CHOICE MODEL

This study provides an operational replication of a proposed multiattribute choice model. The necessity of replication in the decision sciences in general and in consumer behavior in particular is discussed. Several alternative forms of multiattribute choice models are considered. Results are supportive of earlier efforts in this area.     

具有隐藏故障的多状态竞争失效系统检测策略研究

复杂工业系统的故障中有40%属于隐藏故障,若隐藏故障得不到及时消除,则可能导致巨大的经济损失。本文针对具有隐藏故障的多状态竞争失效系统,在考虑不完全检测的基础上,对其进行了维修建模。首先,基于制定的视情维修策略,分析了系统的更新情形;然后,基于所推导出的各种系统更新情形的发生概率,建立了以期望成本率为目标函数,以检测间隔时间为决策变量的维修模型。最后,以电容器组为例对所构建维修模型的适用性和有效性进行了验证,研究结果表明,检测质量对检测策略的制定有重要影响,因此研究具有隐藏故障的多状态竞争失效系统的检测策略时,有必要考虑检测误差。本文提出的维修建模方法不仅能在一定程度上丰富多状态竞争失效系统的维修策略理论与方法,还能为工程实际中复杂工业系统的维修工作提供理论基础与决策依据。     

A LOGIT-MARKOVIAN MODEL OF CONSUMER PURCHASE BEHAVIOR BASED ON EXPLANATORY VARIABLES: EMPIRICAL EVALUATION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION MAKING*

This study describes and empirically evaluates an approach to modeling purchase behavior that integrates a Logit-Markov-based multivariate brand-choice model structure with stochastic components. Using actual market data for a frequently purchased consumer product obtained from a consumer purchase panel survey, the paper highlights some marketing applications of the model. Given its general structure, the model can aid marketing managers in defining and evaluating target market segments and in assessing the impact of alternative marketing strategies.     

PSYCHOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF BOUNDED RATIONALITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION-MAKING STRATEGIES

In this paper the implications of cognitive strain for decision-making effectiveness are explored. Literature concerning the psychological processes of decisionmakers which underlie the operation of cognitive strain and which predispose them to the effects of cognitive strain, is reviewed. Next, the impact of cognitive strain on narrowly constraining or “bounding” rational decision-making is examined, and the choice strategies of satisficing and incrementalizing are criticized as failing to broaden the bounds of rational decision-making. Finally, elements of an eclectic choice strategy designed to assist decision-makers handle the informational demands of complex decision problems are discussed.