Evidence maps: communicating risk assessments in societal controversies: the case of engineered nanoparticles

The transparent and fair characterization of scientific evidence for reporting the results of a hazard assessment is a demanding task. In this article, we present an approach for characterizing evidence--the evidence map approach. The theoretical starting point is to view evidence characterization as a form of argumentation. Thus, evidence maps are designed to depict the evidence base, the pro and con arguments, and the remaining uncertainties, which together lead experts to their conclusions when summarizing and evaluating the scientific evidence about a potential hazard. To illustrate its use, the evidence maps approach is applied to characterizing the health-relevant effects of engineered nanoparticles. Empirical data from an online survey suggests that the use of evidence maps improves the reporting of hazard assessments. Nonexperts prefer to receive the information included in an evidence map in order to come to an informed judgment. Furthermore, the benefits and limitations of evidence maps are discussed in the light of recent literature on risk communication. Finally, the article underlines the need for further research in order to increase quality of evidence reporting.     

Exploring Risk Judgments in a Trade Dispute Using Bayesian Networks

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical modeling tools that are generally recommended for exploring what‐if scenarios, visualizing systems and problems, and for communication between stakeholders during decision making. In this article, we investigate their potential for exploring different perspectives in trade disputes. To do so, we draw on a specific case study that was arbitrated by the World Trade Organization (WTO): the Australia‐New Zealand apples dispute. The dispute centered on disagreement about judgments contained within Australia's 2006 import risk analysis (IRA). We built a range of BNs of increasing complexity that modeled various approaches to undertaking IRAs, from the basic qualitative and semi‐quantitative risk analyses routinely performed in government agencies, to the more complex quantitative simulation undertaken by Australia in the apples dispute. We found the BNs useful for exploring disagreements under uncertainty because they are probabilistic and transparently represent steps in the analysis. Different scenarios and evidence can easily be entered. Specifically, we explore the sensitivity of the risk output to different judgments (particularly volume of trade). Thus, we explore how BNs could usefully aid WTO dispute settlement. We conclude that BNs are preferable to basic qualitative and semi‐quantitative risk analyses because they offer an accessible interface and are mathematically sound. However, most current BN modeling tools are limited compared with complex simulations, as was used in the 2006 apples IRA. Although complex simulations may be more accurate, they are a black box for stakeholders. BNs have the potential to be a transparent aid to complex decision making, but they are currently computationally limited. Recent technological software developments are promising.     

Science-Based Trade Disputes: A New Challenge in Harmonizing the Evidentiary Systems of Law and Science

In November 2001, the University of Michigan hosted one of the first dialogues among international trade law scholars and scientists in the field of risk assessment with the goal of identifying critical areas of misunderstanding between the two fields. This article discusses key issues that need to be addressed in order to better harmonize the scientific and legal systems of evidence within the context of trade disputes and trade law and presents the recommendations that emerged from the Michigan meeting.     

基于ITIM模型的政治争端事件对产业经济系统的影响评估

本文在考虑事件恢复期的情景下,扩展了Jung^[7]的针对进出口国际贸易的非正常投入产出模型。将2012年中日"钓鱼岛事件"视为一类政治争端事件,在几个假设前提下,评估该事件给中国的产业经济系统带来的间接经济损失,并筛选出对该事件较为敏感的产业。结果表明:"钓鱼岛事件"严重影响了中日贸易,2012年中日进出口贸易总额同比减少134.3716亿美元,考虑到产业经济系统内部的技术经济关联性,估算出"钓鱼岛事件"带来的静态间接经济损失区间为;然后假设"钓鱼岛事件"在1年、2年、3年、5年、10年和15年内得以解决,分别计算了该事件带来的间接经济损失区间;筛选出了"钓鱼岛事件"的高敏感行业:通用、专用设备制造业、电气机械及器材制造业、化学工业、金属冶炼及压延加工业和金属制品业等。最后提出了相应的政策建议。本文的研究方法可为类似事件的损失评估提供借鉴,研究结果可为政府、行业管理部门和相关企业提供参考。     

The Effect of Trade on Employment and Wages in Italian Industry

The paper analyses the labour market impact of international trade on the Italian manufacturing sector. Using data for a panel of manufacturing industries the effects of trade‐induced changes in sales on employment and wages are investigated. The evidence suggests that the industry adjustment to demand shocks took place mainly through employment changes. However, increased exposure to foreign competition had a small effect on the Italian labour market, while technological change seems to have a major role in explaining the increase in unemployment.     

The role of health care ADR (alternative dispute resolution) in reducing legal fees

An increasingly complex health care system undergoing rapid changes is an ideal set-up for frequent conflicts among the numerous participants. While conflict is inevitable, the manner in which it is handled can markedly affect the outcome of the dispute and the future relationship of the parties, as well as the emotional and financial cost of the dispute. This article presents an overview of the principles and processes of alternative dispute resolution (ADR), and describes how these processes are currently being used to resolve health care disputes.     

What the new GATT trade agreement means for plastics

The recently concluded Tokyo Round of GATT trade negotiations resulted in an agreement that can considerably restructure the way nations deal with international trade problems. As in the 1967 Kennedy Round, tariffs have again been significantly cut, by about one-third on average for industrial products. But in addition to the tariff reductions, for the first time in multilateral negotiations very comprehensive agreements have been reached on the manner in which nations will deal with important non-tariff measures that affect trade, including subsidy and countervailing duties, dumping, valuation, standards, government procurement and import licensing. The result is forecast to become a new era in international trade that will be characterized as neither protectionist, nor free trade. Instead, what will be emerging will be an era of ‘managed trade’, with the historical barrier of tariffs largely removed, and the non-tariff measures that operate to distort trade managed by governments to achieve ‘fair’ conditions of international commerce. How this new era of ‘managed trade’ will work out in practice will be determined as case history develops from the national and multilateral dispute settlement procedures established by the agreements. Required will be goodwill on all sides, and an effective collaboration between industry and government.While this article is written with reference to the U.S. plastics industry, it includes data and interpretation important for all industries and for all countries.     

Technological forecasting a criticism of the Delphi technique

The author criticises the “Delphi” method of forecasting technological developments by obtaining a consensus of opinion among experts. He argues that the problem is not to forecast what might happen, but rather to decide what should happen and he suggests improvements in the Delphi technique which would change it from an ad hoc method old crytal ball gazing” into a system for continuous consultation among “responsible organizations”.     

Final report of the Color Additive Scientific Review Panel

The Color Additives Scientific Review Panel considered whether there was information sufficient to perform a carcinogenic risk assessment on the colors D&C Red No. 19 (R-19), D&C Red No. 37 (R-37), D&C Orange No. 17 (O-17), D&C Red No. 9 (R-9), D&C Red No. 8 (R-8) and FD&C Red No. 3 (R-3) and to evaluate the assessments sent to FDA as part of the petitions for use of the colors for drug and external uses by the Cosmetic, Toiletry and Fragrance Association (CTFA). There is a lack of human data concerning the colors for making a human health assessment, so the assessments are based upon the extrapolation of animal data. The risk assessments are determined for exposure to single chemicals. Excluded from consideration are possible effects from exposure to multiple chemicals, such as co-carcinogenesis, promotion, synergism, antagonism, etc. In the light of recent efforts in establishing a consensus in risk assessment, the Panel has determined that the CTFA assessments for R-10, O-17, and R-9 are consistent with present acceptable usages, although it questions some of the assumptions used in the assessments. The Panel identified a number of general assumptions made, and discusses their validity, their impact on total uncertainty, and the potential options to address the gaps in understanding that necessitate the assumption. The Panel also derived revised risk estimates using more "reasonable" assumptions than "worst-case" situations, for 90th percentile and average exposure. For those assumptions that are easily quantifiable, the Panel's estimates are less than an order of magnitude lower than the CTFA risk estimates, indicating that the underestimates and overestimates of the CTFA risk estimates tend to balance each other. The impact of most of the assumptions is not quantifiable. The assessment for R-3 is complicated by the fact that there is no good skin penetrance study for this color. It was assumed that the penetrance is similar to that of another water-soluble xanthene color, R-19. It is expected that the absorption of the color is not likely to exceed that of the smaller molecule, R-19. Therefore, the risk estimates are similar to the CTFA estimates, but with different reasoning. The estimates for R-8 and R-37 are different from the others in that there is a lack of any exposure or toxicological information on these colors.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

市场的本质、内容与特征

本文认为,市场是买卖交易得以顺利进行的前提,是买卖交易制度体系;它由产权制度、交易行为制度和文化伦理三部分构成。现代市场还包括社会保障制度,是上述各部分耦合而成的有机整体;市场的基本特征是自利性、自愿性、平等性和竞争性;社会主义市场体制建设的关键是由政府创建一个公平的、可预见的、具有激励作用的制度框架,规范买卖交易关系,激励各主体高效地从事经济活动。     

Expert Scientific Judgment and Cancer Risk Assessment: A Pilot Study of Pharmacokinetic Data

When high-dose tumor data are extrapolated to low doses, it is typically assumed that the dose of a carcinogen delivered to target cells is proportional to the dose administered to test animals, even at exposure levels below the experimental range. Since pharmacokinetic data are becoming available that in some cases question the validity of this assumption, risk assessors must decide whether to maintain the standard assumption. A pilot study of formaldehyde is reported that was undertaken to demonstrate how expert scientific judgment can help guide a controversial risk assessment where pharmacokinetic data are considered inconclusive. Eight experts on pharmacokinetic data were selected by a formal procedure, and each was interviewed personally using a structured interview protocol. The results suggest that expert scientific opinion is polarized in this case, a situation that risk assessors can respond to with a range of risk characterizations considered biologically plausible by the experts. Convergence of expert opinion is likely in this case of several specific research strategies ar executed in a competent fashion. Elicitation of expert scientific judgment is a promising vehicle for evaluating the quality of pharmacokinetic data, expressing uncertainty in risk assessment, and fashioning a research agenda that offers possible forging of scientific consensus.     

Does the Stock Market Gender Stereotype Corporate Boards? Evidence from the Market's Reaction to Directors' Trades

Attitudes towards male and female managers within organizations are well documented, but how the stock market perceives their relative capabilities is less studied. Recent evidence documents a negative short‐run market reaction to the appointment of female chief executive officers and suggests that female executives are less informed than their male counterparts about future corporate performance. These results appear to dispute the stock market value of having women on corporate boards. However, such short‐run market reactions may retain a ‘gender bias’, reflecting the prevalence of negative stereotypes, where the market reacts to ‘beliefs’ rather than ‘performance’. This study tests for such bias by examining the stock market reaction to directors' trades in their own companies' shares, by measuring both the short‐run and longer‐term returns after the directors' trades. Allowing for firm and trade effects, some evidence is found that, in the longer term, markets recognize that female executives' trades are informative about future corporate performance, although initially markets underestimate these effects. This has important implications for research that has attempted to assess the value of board diversity by examining only short‐run stock market responses.     

Experiments in Lay Cues to the Relative Validity of Positions Taken by Disputing Groups of Scientists

Risk analysis and hazard management can prompt varied intra‐scientific disputes, some which have or will become public, and thus potentially available for lay judgments of the relative validity of the positions taken. As attentive laypeople may include elites as well as the general public, understanding whether and how cues to credibility of disputing groups of scientists might shape those lay judgments can be important. Relevant literatures from philosophy, social studies of science, risk analysis, and elsewhere have identified potential cues, but not tested their absolute or relative effects. Two experiments with U.S. online panel members tested multiple cues (e.g., credentials, experience, majority opinions, research quality) across topics varying in familiarity subject to actual intra‐science disputes (dark matter, marijuana, sea‐level rise). If cues supported a position, laypeople were more likely to choose it as relatively more valid, with information quality, majority “vote,” experience, and degree source as the strongest, and interest, demographic, and values similarity as the weakest, cues. These results were similar in overall rankings to those from implicit rankings of cue reliability ratings from an earlier U.S. online survey. Proposed moderators were generally nonsignificant, but topic familiarity and subjective topic knowledge tended to reduce cue effects. Further research to confirm and extend these findings can inform both theory about citizen engagement with scientific and risk disputes, and practice in communication about science and risk.     

The Dynamics of International Competitiveness: First Results from an Analysis at the Industry Level

The paper uses the key role of technology as starting point in determining trade flows and international competitiveness at industry and country level as a growing number of theoretical contributions and empirical verifications have recognized over the past decade. The paper uses a set of new data on trade, production, technology and costs at industry level for a certain number of countries to relate trade performance to a set of different economic and technological factors across countries and industrial sectors since the early 1970s. A single model of trade specialization is applied to the data in order to establish the impact of innovation, costs and country specific factors to overall performance, both in the short run and the long run, via a panel data analysis. Model specification follows the cointegration approach, where a long-run cointegrating vector is estimated along with the dynamic adjustment towards long-run equilibrium. The paper presents some preliminary results, related to a certain number of different industrial sectors for the major industrialized countries.     

加征关税下的跨国供应链决策及补贴策略研究

本文讨论加征关税视角下的供应链决策及补贴策略问题。基于本国制造商、分销商与国外进口零售商所组成的三级跨国供应链,分别讨论了政府不补贴、政府补贴下的供应链决策,研究加征关税和补贴对供应链的影响,并分析保持产品销售价不变补贴策略(I)、保持制造商利润不变补贴策略(II)及社会福利最大化补贴策略(III)的效应。结果表明,加征关税导致产品销售价增大和本国企业批发价、供应链各企业利润及社会福利的降低,但政府提高补贴使得产品销售价减小和供应链各企业利润增大,而社会福利随着补贴的增大先增大后减小。随着加征关税税率及补贴的增大,供应链更多地表现为补贴的作用,补贴能有效减小加征关税的影响。在较低关税税率下,策略(III)激励产品出口作用显著,但政府补贴支出过高;策略(II)相较策略(I)激励效果更显著,但补贴支出更大。在较高关税税率下,策略(II)更能激励制造商出口,策略(I)以较低的补贴支出激励制造商出口,更有利于维持国际市场稳定。     

A Delphi Method Expert Survey to Derive Standards for Flood Damage Data Collection

For the purpose of flood damage analyses reliable, comparable, comprehensive, consistent, and up-to-date data are an indispensable need. Like in many other countries a database with this kind of datasets does not exist in Germany. To establish it, standards have to be set for flood damage data collection. We approached this problem by questioning experts about their information needs for flood damage analysis. This survey is done by applying a Delphi survey approach. The aptitude of the Delphi approach to assess, structure, and standardize expert knowledge is evaluated in this article. In the survey a panel of 55 experts working in the field of flood damage analysis for insurances, engineering companies/consultancy, public water management, and universities and other scientific institutions helped to identify common information needs. The multi-step Delphi method proved to reduce the deviation of answers thereby enabling consensual results and also enhanced the quality by modifying group answers in the direction of experience based answers. There was also a high level of congruence in information needs between experts from different fields of employment that allowed the derivation of common standards.     

When Can Scientific Studies Promote Consensus Among Conflicting Stakeholders?

While scientific studies may help conflicting stakeholders come to agreement on a best management option or policy, often they do not. We review the factors affecting trust in the efficacy and objectivity of scientific studies in an analytical‐deliberative process where conflict is present, and show how they may be incorporated in an extension to the traditional Bayesian decision model. The extended framework considers stakeholders who differ in their prior beliefs regarding the probability of possible outcomes (in particular, whether a proposed technology is hazardous), differ in their valuations of these outcomes, and differ in their assessment of the ability of a proposed study to resolve the uncertainty in the outcomes and their hazards—as measured by their perceived false positive and false negative rates for the study. The Bayesian model predicts stakeholder‐specific preposterior probabilities of consensus, as well as pathways for increasing these probabilities, providing important insights into the value of scientific information in an analytic‐deliberative decision process where agreement is sought. It also helps to identify the interactions among perceived risk and benefit allocations, scientific beliefs, and trust in proposed scientific studies when determining whether a consensus can be achieved. The article provides examples to illustrate the method, including an adaptation of a recent decision analysis for managing the health risks of electromagnetic fields from high voltage transmission lines.     

Conflict analysis of an export credit trade dispute

The improved metagame analysis algorithm is employed to study an international trade dispute involving government subsidised export credits. In particular, the methodology is applied to a conflict over the awarding of a large contract to supply subway cars by New York City. Logically feasible resolutions to the dispute are highlighted and the possible role of strategic deception in the awarding of the contract is investigated.     

创新数量、创新质量与高技术产业出口

中国已经成为创新大国，拥有较大规模的创新数量，但还不是创新强国，创新质量水平较低。在贸易保护主义日趋严重的今天，研究创新数量、创新质量与外贸出口的互动机制具有重要意义。本文基于高技术产业面板数据，采用面板数据模型、贝叶斯向量自回归模型分析了创新数量、创新质量与出口的互动关系。研究结果表明：创新数量与外贸出口之间呈现良性互动；创新质量与外贸出口互动作用较低；企业研发经费投入能有效地促进创新数量与创新质量的提升；政府研发经费投入不能有效地促进创新数量与创新质量的提升；创新数量、创新质量之间具有一定的良性互动关系。