The implications of irreversibility in emergency response decisions

The irreversibility effect implies that a decision maker who neglects the prospect of receiving more complete information at later stages of a sequential decision problem will in certain cases too easily take an irreversible decision, as he ignores the existence of a positive option value in favour of reversible decisions. This option value represents the decision maker's flexibility to adapt subsequent decisions to the obtained information. In this paper we show that the economic models dealing with irreversibility as used in environmental and capital investment decision making can be extended to emergency response decisions that produce important irreversible effects. In particular, we concentrate on the decision whether or not to evacuate an industrial area threatened by a possible nuclear accident. We show in a simple two-period evacuation decision model that non-optimal conclusions may be drawn when evacuation is regarded as a `now or never decision'. The robustness of these results is verified by means of a sensitivity analysis of the various model parameters. The importance of `options thinking' in this decision context is illustrated in an example.     

Drugs and Technology in Pregnancy and Child-birth—Review of Literature

Literature on the use of drugs and technology in pregnancy and in child-birth is reviewed, giving the general trend of findings in the case of studies and surveys. Very little of the literature is unreservedly positive and much of it emphasizes the need for caution and the risks that exist in both the use of drugs and the use of most forms of technology applicable to investigations and procedures during pregnancy and child-birth. There is clearly an imperative need for research in this area, before expensive equipment is purchased for every centre which may be used for obstetric cases. There is also a need to educate women in this area to ensure that they can make informed decisions about what they will accept in treatment and what they will not accept.     

Risky investment decisions: How are individuals influenced by their groups?

We investigate the effect of group versus individual decision-making in the context of risky investment decisions in which all subjects are fully informed of the probabilities and payoffs. Although there is full information, the lottery choices pose cognitive challenges so that people may not be sure of their expected utility-maximizing choice. Making such decisions in a group context provides real-time information in which group members can observe others’ choices and revise their own decisions. Our experimental results show that simply observing what others in the group do has a significant impact on behavior. Coupling real-time information with group decisions based on the median value, i.e., majority rule, makes the median investment choice focal, leading people with low values to increase investments and those with high values to decrease investments. Group decisions based on the minimum investment amount produce more asymmetric effects.     

Take-up for genetic tests and ambiguity

Under the expected utility hypothesis a costless genetic test has, at worst, zero private value. This happens if it does not affect optimal decisions. If the genetic test facilitates better decision-making for at least one possible test outcome, then it has positive private value. This theoretical result seems to contradict the fact that empirically observed take-up rates for genetic tests are surprisingly low. We demonstrate that if individuals display ambiguity aversion, a costless genetic test that does not affect optimal decisions is never taken. Furthermore, there is a trade-off between aversion against uncertainty of test results and utility gains from better decision-making if optimal decisions depend on the level of information. The reason is that, from an ex-ante view, a genetic test introduces uncertainty of probabilities which diminishes the value of information to an ambiguity-averse decision-maker. Ambiguity aversion regarding test results thus provides an explanation for low take-up rates for genetic tests.     

Preferences for information on probabilities versus prizes: The role of risk-taking attitudes

Many real-world decisions entail choices between information on either probabilities or payoffs (i.e., prizes). Simplified versions of such decisions are examined to gain insight into preferences for different types of information as a function of risk-attitudes. General and simple decision rules are derived for cases where the utility function is concave (or convex) over the relevant payoff interval.The article further describes several experiments to test business students' intuitions concerning these optimal decision rules. In general, risk-taking attitudes did not correlate significantly with subjects' preferences for information, in violation of theorems regarding mean-preserving spreads of risk. Other tests, e.g., narrowing certain probability ranges, also resulted in preferences contrary to expected utility (EU) theory.     

Examination of the Child Protective Services Decision-Making Context with Implications for Decision Support System Design

Abstract

The general perception of Child Protective Services (CPS) decision making is that it is inconsistent and prone to error. As a result, risk assessment instruments were developed to enable investigators to make better decisions. The present study uses a qualitative approach with an explicit theoretical framework pertinent to management information systems and decision support system design to examine the context in which investigators operate and make decisions. The resulting information can be used to determine design requirements that would improve the experience of using a risk assessment instrument that serves as a decision support system (DSS) for CPS investigators.     

Difficult decisions on care and services for elderly people: the dilemma of setting priorities in the welfare state

The aging of the population combined with restricted economic resources is leading to an increasing gap between care needs and care resources. The first strategy to cope with this growing disparity is often the rather non-controversial attempt to optimize the use of the resources. At some point in time, however, more crucial decisions are needed. Four levels of decision-making in the system of care services may be identified - from decisions regarding national resource allocation to decisions regarding individual users. The different conditions for making decisions and setting priorities at each level must be considered when studying the decision-making process and the consequences - including the repercussions for other levels and sectors. With Sweden as a case, four trends in decision-making can be seen: decentralization of many controversial decisions; redefining of the lines of responsibility between sectors; increasing inequality in the accessibility, cost, and quality of care; and a general lack of public discussion and debate about central welfare issues.     

FACTORS INFLUENCING LEGAL DISPOSITION IN CHILD ABUSE INVESTIGATIONS

The study used an experimental design to investigate factors that influence a child protective service worker's decisions to recommend court action in cases of child abuse involving physical injury. The focus was decisions that are made early in an investigation. Seriousness of injury, whether or not there was a previous child abuse report, the consistency of the explanation regarding nature and location of injury, and parental reaction toward the worker were all found to significantly affect case disposition decisions. Although there was a general tendency among workers not to recommend court action, there was substantial disagreement regarding the appropriateness of court action in particular child abuse cases. The findings substantiate the need for clarification of decision-making criteria in child abuse cases.     

信息哲学中的生态意蕴

信息哲学所阐释的物质和信息双重存在和双重演化理论以及它提出的以自然本体的名义所阐释的一般价值哲学,不但坚持了自然进化论立场,扬弃和超越了主体性思维,而且在价值论视阈全面维护了人类与自然双重价值的相依互动与和谐共存,充分体现了内含于其中的丰富的生态意蕴。信息哲学中的生态意蕴主要表现为：自然与人类协同进化的思想、自然演化中的全息思维、从自然本体出发的伦理支点以及天人合一的自然价值观。深入梳理、解读信息哲学中的生态思想,有助于理解信息哲学与生态思维之间的紧密联系以及信息文明时代的生态价值观。     

Collective Decision-Making: the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a method to improve decision making whose application here is to complex environments. “A.H.P.” involves structuring a decision into a hierarchy, determining relative priorities for the elements in the hierarchy, and combining the numbers into overall weights estimating each decision outcome. The need for decision aids such as AHP, is supported by the literature, which suggests that even experts can contend with only limited amounts of information and tend to arrive at decisions in a simple fashion. AHP allows for using more information to make decisions in more complex ways. This leads to more coherent decisions. In the case presented AHP helped a committee make resource allocation decisions in an urban renewal project in Israel. The example highlights the usefulness of AHP in group settings. Areas of disagreement were easily identified and discussed. This diffused much of the tension typical of these proceedings.     

Agenda Setting and State Policy Diffusion: The Effects of Media Attention,State Court Decisions,and Policy Learning on Fetal Killing Policy*

Objectives. This study combines theories on agenda setting, policy innovation, and policy learning to develop an improved model of state policy change. The case of fetal killing policy change in the states is used to develop a model that incorporates national media attention and the decisions of state courts, in addition to policy learning variables that account for the policy changes of neighboring states and the passage of time. Methods. I test the effect of national media attention, decisions by the courts, and the actions of neighboring states on the likelihood that states will change their fetal homicide policies. Using time‐series cross‐sectional data from 1970 to 2002, the model is tested using logistic regression analysis. In addition to testing the theories mentioned above, control variables in the model include citizen and government ideology and the percentage of state residents who are fundamentalist Protestants. Results. Three of the four research hypotheses are supported by the statistical analysis. The results demonstrate that increased media attention to fetal homicide in a given year increases the likelihood that a state will change its policy the next year. Support is also found for the hypothesis that state court decisions will affect policy change. One of the control variables, government liberalism, is also found to decrease the likelihood that states will change their fetal homicide policies. Conclusions. This study lends insight into why states change their policies by including agenda‐setting variables such as media attention and decisions made by the courts. States do react to the actions of the courts by making changes to policies affected by the decisions.     

Go to the Hospital or Stay at Home? A Qualitative Study of Expected Hospital Decision Making Among Older African Americans With Advanced Heart Failure

To address the need for more information concerning hospital decision making, we conducted in-depth interviews among African Americans with heart failure and their family caregivers (n?=?11 dyads). Using a case scenario, we asked participants about their anticipated hospitalization decisions. Most patients indicated that they would seek care to avoid further deterioration or death from their worsening condition. Many family caregivers anticipated having an active influence on hospitalization decisions. Findings suggest that social workers should encourage the development of adequate home-based services, recognize diverse communication styles, and use this information to facilitate medical decision making by these patients and their caregivers.     

How Do Information Ambiguity and Timing of Contextual Information Affect Managers’ Goal Congruence in Making Investment Decisions in Good Times vs. Bad Times?

Information ambiguity is prevalent in organizations and may influence management decisions. This study draws upon research on information bias and ambiguity research to empirically test how information ambiguity and non-financial factors (e.g., interpersonal information) affect managers’ capital budgeting decisions when in good vs. bad times. Ninety-two managers completed two experiments. In Experiment One, the information was presented sequentially. Our results show that without the presence of non-financial factors, managers tend to maximize the firm value. After receiving non-financial factors, a significant number of managers switched to the self-serving option in good times (the gain condition) but stayed with firm-value maximization in bad times (the loss condition). In Experiment Two, the information was presented simultaneously in the presence and absence of ambiguity. We found that in the presence of ambiguity, the information presentation has no impact on managers’ self-serving bias in good times or their firm-value maximization tendency in bad times. Interestingly, we also observed managers’ use of interpersonal information even in the absence of ambiguity.JEL Classification: D8     

One-shot decisions under Linear Partial Information

This paper purports to make a contribution to the analysis of a class of decisions that has received little attention in the literature, although it appears to be of considerable importance. Certain decisions cannot be repeated but must be made under fuzziness in the sense that state probabilities are not exactly known (LPI-fuzziness). The analysis of Linear Partial Information is applied to the principle of neglecting small probabilities found by Allais (1953), enabling the decision maker to break away from the maxmin criterion. By systematic exploitation of the fuzzy information available, strategies are shown to exist that provide payoffs whose lower bound exceeds the maxmin benchmark with sufficiently high probability. The same methodology is shown to be useful for dealing with the case of only ordinal preference orderings that are so typical of those crucial decisions that may be made only once in a lifetime.     

对人生价值观几个关系的辩证分析

树立正确的人生价值观必须经过长期不懈的自我修养和锻炼的过程,如何处理好贡献与索取、自我设计与“社会需要”、科学价值与道德价值的辩证关系,是人们在对待人生价值观上值得探讨的几个问题。本文在充分阐明其辩证关系的同时,人们必须注重对崇高价值目标的选择。     

Dynamic reasoning and time pressure: Transition from analytical operations to experiential responses

Based upon the Decision Field Theory (Busemeyer and Townsend 1993), we tested a model of dynamic reasoning to predict the effect of time pressure on analytical and experiential processing during decision-making. Forty-six participants were required to make investment decisions under four levels of time pressure. In each decision, participants were presented with experiential cues which were either congruent or incongruent with the analytical information. The congruent/incongruent conditions allowed us to examine how many decisions were based upon the experiential versus the analytical information, and to see if this was affected by the varying degrees of time pressure. As expected, the overall accuracy was reduced with greater time pressure and accuracy was higher when the experiential and analytical cues were congruent than when they were incongruent. Of great interest was the data showing that under high time pressure participants used more experiential cues than at other time pressures. We suggest that the dynamic reasoning paradigm has some future potential for predicting the effects of experiential biases in general, and specifically under time pressure.     

Applications of pseudo-Boolean methods to economic problems

The use of Boolean algebra in logic, switching and automata theory, coding and other technically oriented areas is well known. The role of this paper is to show that Boolean algebra can be instrumental in taking economic decisions.By a pseudo-Boolean function, a real-valued function with bivalent (0–1) variables will be understood. The symbols 0 and 1 will stay both for their logical meaning and their arithmetical value.The basic problems which arise frequently in connection with pseudo-Boolean functions are: (1) solution of systems of equations and/or inequalities involving only pseudo-Boolean functions, (2) problems of determining the maximum or the minimum of a free pseudo-Boolean function, or of a pseudo-Boolean function whose variables are subject to constraints; (3) problems of finding the minimax or the maximin of a pseudo-Boolean function.The basic problems outlined above are exemplified on the case of a company wishing to locate a number of service stations, which - under different assumptions - lead to the above formulated models.Paper presented at the Meeting of the Econometric Society, Chicago, December 27–30, 1968.     

Rapid growth or stagnation: An economic policy choice

Why has the American economy performed so poorly in the past decade, especially in comparison with the two prior decades? This paper makes the theoretical and empirical case that a series of economic policy decisions provides the most satisfactory explanation and that policy reform will restore good economic performance. The paper also considers alternative explanations including the idea of a new secular stagnation unrelated to policy and the view that the deep financial crisis inevitably delayed recovery from the recession.     

The value of perfect information in nonlinear utility theory

Wakker (1988) has recently shown that, in contrast to an expected utility maximizer, the value of information will sometimes be negative for an agent who violates the independence axiom of expected utility theory. We demonstrate, however, that the value ofperfect information will always be nonnegative if the agent satisfies a weak dominance axiom. This result thus mitigates to some degree the normative objection to nonlinear utility theory implicit in Wakker's finding.