加强流动妇女计划生育服务的几点思考——根据《北京市昌平区妇女维权项目基线调查》①的分析

人口流动已成为我国现代化进程中的必然趋势,流动妇女尤其育龄妇女,长期以来是各级计划生育部门工作的重点方面。本文根据《北京市昌平区妇女维权项目基线调查》数据,分析了流动妇女在流入地已获得的计划生育服务状况．了解其计划生育,生殖健康方面的服务需求,深入思考了加强流动妇女计划生育服务工作所面临的四个问题．以期进一步完善流动人口管理服务体系。     

禀赋、场域与中国妇女生育意愿研究

利用2006年中国健康营养调查(CHNS)数据,构建模型,对中国18～52岁妇女的意愿生育决策、生育强度及其影响因素进行实证分析。在众多因素中,家庭已有孩子构成、能力禀赋、资本禀赋对妇女生育意愿有着显著影响,技术禀赋对妇女再生育的意愿和强度有重要影响。同时,将划分生育场域边界的地区变量纳入模型,显示不同区域间妇女的生育意愿存在较大差别,中西部地区妇女的生育意愿明显高于东北部地区;妇女禀赋条件越改善、禀赋水平越高、生育场域越优化,其生育意愿、生育强度越低,生育行为越趋理性。未来开展人口和计划生育工作,制定、调整人口和计划生育政策,应该对此予以充分考虑。     

农村社区计划生育环境分析与再造

农村计划生育环境状况不仅与妇女的生育和健康直接相关，而且对计划生育政策的实施有举足轻重的影响。本文分析了计划生育实施以来农村社区环境因素及其对妇女影响的特点，探讨了各种环境因素与计划生育工作交织所形成的社区特性及对妇女作用和可控性特征，提出了包括计划生育在内的社区计划生育环境的再造问题及其实现的途径。     

计划生育与妇女健康──国际比较研究

本文着重介绍和分析当前世界范围内主要面临的妇女健康问题及其与计划生育之间的联系，阐述计划生育对改善妇女健康的作用。试图使人们更深入地理解计划生育对妇女所提供的帮助，特别是在生殖健康方面的直接帮助，以及间接地为妇女发展所创造的机会。     

计划生育与中国妇女生命历程变化探讨

本文通过分析中国３个地区城乡的妇女生命周期变化，说明中国计划生育工作促进了妇女生育期的缩短，为妇女参与发展提供了条件。同时计划生育将对妇女的老年阶段产生新的影响，未来妇女的养老问题须靠完善社会保障和增加自我生存能力才能缓解。     

近20年来中国妇女避孕变化趋势分析

避孕是中国实行计划生育控制人口增长最主要和最有效的措施,因而深入了解中国已婚妇女使用各种避孕方法的历史和现状,了解妇女选择避孕方法的趋势,寻找出使用的规律,将对今后采取有效的避孕措施,提高避孕有效率,指导计划生育工作提供可靠的科学依据。 本文根据1988年全国生育节育抽样调查数据,主要介绍中国已婚妇女目前正在使用和以     

多水平模型及其在人口科学研究中的应用

本文从分层整群随机抽样数据、层次数据的分析入手，引入多水平分析的一般线性模型和多水平二分类交量的Ｌｏｇｉｔ模型，并对其模型的假设条件予以阐述。对模型的产生背景和软件的研制情况进行了回顾，展望了多水平模型的方法学发展。最后指出了多水平分析方法在生育行为的社区因素分析、计划生育项目的评估、婴儿死亡率及人口迁移等人口学研究领域中的应用。该方法可在分析个体因素模型的基础上同时考虑宏观因素，并可考虑微观个体因素与宏观变量之间的交互作用，使数据分析的深度更进一步提高。     

中国妇女人工流产状况分析

利用卫生部和 1 997年全国人口与生殖健康抽样调查数据对中国妇女人工流产比和人工流产率进行了估计 ,并利用 1 997年数据对人工流产的原因进行了分析和解释。研究中发现中国城市妇女的人工流产率大大高于农村妇女 ;只有女孩的妇女再次怀孕的人工流产率低于至少有一个男孩而怀孕的妇女。由于避孕失败造成意外怀孕是中国妇女实行人工流产的首要原因 ;但是在农村 ,由于不符合计划生育规定而实行人工流产则成为主要原因。     

谈谈保障妇女权益与计划生育的关系

——保障妇女权益有利于实行计划生育。——实行计划生育有利于促进妇女解放。——贯彻计划生育基本国策,积极保护妇女权益。     

从分层模型视角看出生人口质量的影响因素—以江苏省无锡市为例

文章采用"无锡市2002～2004年孕产妇回顾性调查"数据,尝试使用三层贝努里模型分析方法研究出生人口质量的主要影响因素,设计包括个人、家庭经济类型和区域环境三层模型,将影响无锡市出生人口质量的各层因素纳入三层贝努里模型进行综合分析,结果发现该模型数据的分层效应的确会对该市产妇生育结局产生显著影响;个人、家庭经济类型和社区区域环境的三层分层架构可以解释产妇生育结局存在差异的原因;在三层模型构架下,无锡市产妇出现出生人口质量问题的整体风险概率在(1.658134%,15.4497524%)间浮动;出生人口质量主要受家族遗传因素、污染源及危险因素接触和家庭经济因素的影响.     

Quality, accessibility, and contraceptive use in rural tanzania

We examine how informants' reports on community perceptions of the quality and accessibility of family planning facilities relate to the use of modern contraceptives by individuals in rural Tanzania. Using information on individual-level contraceptive use in conjunction with community-level information on the accessibility and quality of family planning facilities, we employ two distinct statistical procedures to illustrate the impacts of accessibility and quality on contraceptive use. Both procedures treat the community-level variables as imperfect indicators of characteristics of the facilities, and they yield nearly identical implications. We find that a community-level, subjective perception of a family planning facility's quality has a significant impact on community members' contraceptive use whereas other community measures such as time, distance, and subjective perception of accessibility have trivial and insignificant direct impacts, net of the control variables. Future research that uncovers the determinants of perceptions of both community-level and individual-level quality could provide key insights for developing effective and efficient family planning programs.     

Some comments on article by K. Srinivasan: 'A probability model applicable to the study of inter-live birth intervals and random segments of the same'

Abstract This paper discusses a probability model of birth intervals, proposed by K. Srinivasan, for the study of data collected in some fertility surveys. New formulae for mean and variance of the "open interval" distribution are given.     

Reflections on Recent Levels and Trends of Fertility and Mortality in Egypt

This paper discusses a probability model of birth intervals, proposed by K. Srinivasan, for the study of data collected in some fertility surveys.

New formulae for mean and variance of the “open interval” distribution are given.     

Women’s status and domestic violence in rural Bangladesh: Individual- and community-level effects

We explore the determinants of domestic violence in two rural areas of Bangladesh. We found increased education, higher socioeconomic status, non-Muslim religion, and extended family residence to be associated with lower risks of violence. The effects of women's status on violence was found to be highly context-specific. In the more culturally conservative area, higher individual-level women's autonomy and short-term membership in savings and credit groups were both associated with significantly elevated risks of violence, and community-level variables were unrelated to violence. In the less culturally conservative area, in contrast, individual-level women's status indicators were unrelated to the risk of violence, and community-level measures of women's status were associated with significantly lower risks of violence, presumably by reinforcing nascent normative changes in gender relations.     

The prediction of completed fertility

There has been considerable interest in the relation between familysize desires and completed fertility. Longitudinal data from the Princeton Fertility Study provide a unique opportunity to compare the number of children desired after the birth of a second child to the size of completed families. The average number of children desired by women after the birth of their second child predicts very well the average size of their completed families. The average family size desired at the first interview and average estimated completed family size some eight years later are identical for the total sample, and vary hardly at all within religious or education subgroups. One-third of the variance in the completed fertility of couples is "explained" by wife's family-size desires and the proportion of explained variance increases to two-fifths when we include the husband's first interview desires and the interval between marriage and second birth. Yet in spite of the relatively high correlation between desires and achievement, only 41 percent of these women achieved exactly the number of children they desired at the first interview, while 14 percent had two children more or fewer than originally desired. Nevertheless, data on contraceptive efficiency indicate that desires after the birth of the second child constitute meaningful goals in terms of which the respondents regulate their subsequent behavior-efficacy of contraceptive practice shows substantial improvement after the desired number has been achieved.     

我国生育政策对二孩生育间隔影响的分层模型研究

我国不同生育政策类型地区二孩生育间隔的差异,既受到地区经济、社会和生育政策的影响,又受到育龄妇女个人和家庭因素的影响。分层模型结果表明,地区间生育间隔差异占我国二孩生育间隔总差异的30．54％。我国生育政策对不同政策类型地区二孩生育间隔差异的影响程度基本在20％以下,不同地区经济和社会发展的不平等状况是导致地区间二孩生育间隔差异的主要原因。     

Birth spacing and fertility limitation: a behavioral analysis of a nineteenth century frontier population

Our analysis of changing birth interval distributions over the course of a fertility transition from natural to controlled fertility has examined three closely related propositions. First, within both natural fertility populations (identified at the aggregate level) and cohorts following the onset of fertility limitation, we hypothesized that substantial groups of women with long birth intervals across the individually specified childbearing careers could be identified. That is, even during periods when fertility behavior at the aggregate level is consistent with a natural fertility regime, birth intervals at all parities are inversely related to completed family size. Our tabular analysis enables us to conclude that birth spacing patterns are parity dependent; there is stability in CEB-parity specific mean and birth interval variance over the entire transition. Our evidence does not suggest that the early group of women limiting and spacing births was marked by infecundity. Secondly, the transition appears to be associated with an increasingly larger proportion of women shifting to the same spacing schedules associated with smaller families in earlier cohorts. Thirdly, variations in birth spacing by age of marriage indicate that changes in birth intervals over time are at least indirectly associated with age of marriage, indicating an additional compositional effect. The evidence we have presented on spacing behavior does not negate the argument that parity-dependent stopping behavior was a powerful factor in the fertility transition. Our data also provide evidence of attempts to truncate childbearing. Specifically, the smaller the completed family size, the longer the ultimate birth interval; and ultimate birth intervals increase across cohorts controlling CEB and parity. But spacing appears to represent an additional strategy of fertility limitation. Thus, it may be necessary to distinguish spacing and stopping behavior if one wishes to clarify behavioral patterns within a population (Edlefsen, 1981; Friedlander et al., 1980; Rodriguez and Hobcraft, 1980). Because fertility transition theories imply increased attempts to limit family sizes, it is important to examine differential behavior within subgroups achieving different family sizes. It is this level of analysis which we have attempted to achieve in utilizing parity-specific birth intervals controlled by children ever born.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

A probability model applicable to the study of inter-live birth intervals and random segments of the same

Abstract This paper deals with an analytical study of two types of birth intervals, viz. 'closed intervals' and 'open intervals' through the application of simple probability theory. The 'closed interval' stands for the time interval between two successive live births of a woman, and the 'open interval' denotes the interval between the date of last live birth and the date of survey for a married woman in the reproductive age group surveyed at a point of time. The study considers the 'closed interval' as the sum of independent random variables, each representing a particular component like post-partum amenorrhea, waiting time in the susceptible state, etc. Approximations to the patterns of distributions of these component random variables are made from the available data collected in fertility surveys at Gandhigram. The 'open interval' for any parity is studied separately for two different (mutually exclusive) categories of women, viz. those who have at least one more live birth at some time or other during their reproductive period and those who cease childbearing. In the first case the 'open interval' is considered as a random segment or partition of the corresponding 'closed interval'; in the second as a random segment of the interval between the date of birth of the last child and date at which the woman attains 45 years of age. The mean and variance of the 'open interval' is obtained separately in each case, and the moments of the 'open interval' distribution for women chosen at random from the population are obtained as an appropriate mixture of the two types.     

Integrating Theory and Research on the Institutional Determinants of Fertility

This article links recent conceptual theories regarding the determinants of fertility with research designs appropriate for testing those theories. The most important causal factors in these theories--typically social or cultural institutions, occasionally emergent properties of the collective behavior of individuals--are properly conceptualized at the macro level. Research designs must therefore feature variation at this level and are at a minimum comparative. Noncomparative micro-level research designs will be misspecified from the standpoint of theory. A case is also made for continuing to incorporate the observation of individual-level behavior into any comprehensive research design. A focus on macro determinants of fertility does not imply that fertility outcomes are determined at the institutional level. Instead, there remains some process whereby systemic properties are translated into individual behaviors. Recommendations for comparative community-level studies are discussed. The multilevel analysis framework is reviewed as a paradigm for the conceptual features of cross-contextual analysis.