Choosing the best population development goal]

Optimizing goals for controlled population growth and development through mathematical modeling has a practical value and is of important theoretical significance. An integrated model for optimizing multiple interactive targets for population development is proposed. A wide array of user-prioritized (weighted) economic indices or factors may be incorporated into this n-tuple m-dimensional model, by which complex linear and vector space computations are solved and interpreted through conventional mathematics. Although this numerical approach toward problem solving is imperfect, when properly used, the mathematical model presented in this paper is a practical and efficient means for solving multidimensional problems.     

Population quality must be improved to carry out the strategic goal of economic construction]

The poor population quality (quality of life of the population as a whole) of Zhejiang Province in southeast China and the imperative need for its improvement are the subject of this report. Its 40 million inhabitants have a life expectancy of 69 years. For every 1000 people there is only 1 doctor and 1.7 hospital beds. These figures are lower for all the other southeastern provinces. According to the 1982 census, there are 47 college graduates, 517 high school graduates, and 1779 middle school graduates for every 10,000 people. The quality of life of the population can be improved through increased productivity because there is a direct relationship between the 2. Although China already enjoys a high level of productivity, it is up to the government to concentrate its efforts on the quality of productivity through reform. China's political structure, its rules, regulations and conventions have contributed to making the economy backward. A substantial change within the social system is imperative to put China's economy on a more progressive footing. Moreover, efforts in family planning must continue. The current population growth rate is not commensurate with the economic growth rate. As population control and population quality are interrelated, a smaller population would mean a higher standard of living. The report concludes that in order to fulfill the strategic goal of economic construction quality is a task that cannot be postponed, since it concerns Zhejiang Province's economic projections, as well as the quality of the new labor force that will be in place by then.     

Developing population science and making it serve the goal of controlling population growth]

This is the text of a speech delivered at the Third National Population Science Discussion Meeting, held on February 27, 1981. The author summarizes past achievements of the Chinese program to control the rate of population growth, emphasizes the importance of the program's success for the well-being of future generations, and discusses the research needed to make it successful. Attention is given to how Chinese attitudes toward the family need to be changed to encourage the one-child family.     

We must pay attention to the difference between the original intention and the current status of family planning]

Due to imperfections in the current family planning (FP) policy, and the differences un program implementation in urban and rural areas, the fertility of the urban population with higher IQ scores is under control but this is not the case for the rural population. Among rural couples, one child is rare and two or three are commonplace, while in cities over 70% of couples are having one child. In the metropolitan cities, this figure is about 90%. In the rural areas, provision of education is a serious problem because of insufficient resources, a lack of qualified teachers and inadequate facilities. At the present, at least 3 million school age children in rural areas can not go to primary school. Besides there is a big contrast in FP practice between Han nationality and minorities. Population growth is basically under control among the more advanced Han nationally but not among the less advances minority nationalities. This growth rate among the minority population was about 50.27/1000 in the past five years, which is alarming. Furthermore, the couples given opportunity to have a second child are often those whose first child had birth defects or is mentally retarded, whereas couples with a normal child can have only one child. This has become a vicious circle, since subsequent children are more likely to have the same birth defects. It was discovered from a 1983-85 survey that the prevalence of birth defects was 12.8/1000. The current situation is that the fertility of urban, educated, and healthy people is restricted while the less educated, those living in less developed areas, and those with health defects are having more children. The outcome of this situation is the decline of national population quality, which greatly deviates from the original intention of the FP.     

Comparative analysis of the index of our population life quality]

A comprehensive method of calculating and measuring a country's or an area's health and literacy levels is examined. The method, known as population quality life inference (PQLI), was used to determine which of China's provinces has the highest and the lowest degree of population quality. The PQLI indicates infant mortality, average life expectancy of 1 year olds, and literacy rates of those 15 years and older. Because developing countries traditionally have high rates of infant mortality and illiteracy and low life expectancy rates during their industrialization, measuring the degree of population quality of life improvement of such countries during this period was found to be significant. These factors (infant mortality, illiteracy, and life expectancy) will improve substantially as industrialization continues. In order to compare various areas, these 3 factors must be changed into "inferences" 0-100, "0" representing the lowest population quality and "100" the highest. These 3 inferences must then be averaged in order to calculate the PQLI. For example: life expectancy value 77 (highest in the world) minus 38 (lowest)/100 = .39. In order to measure the value of India's life expectancy: value of 1-year-old's life expectancy = 56 (1-year-old's life expectancy in India) minus 38/.39 = 46. The value of adult illiteracy does not need to be changed. Thus, the actual comparison will be based on the values of the 3 inferences. Using this method of calculation, it is concluded that the PQLI analysis indicated that Peking (93.04) is the highest in China and Yumnan Province (60.72) is the lowest.     

From the situation of our country, the stress in population control should be put on the rural areas]

The population problem exists around the world and each country shows some special characteristics. Of the 1 billion population of China, about 800 million people belong to the rural population. This number is very large and is increasing rapidly. The average age of the Chinese rural population is comparatively young and early marriage is widespread. A traditional Chinese belief in having many children is still popular. In addition, households with more children get more grain supplies according to the existing rationing system, and the concept of birth control is not popular because of the low educational and cultural levels. As a result, the growth rate of the rural population has remained high for a long time. In order to reach the goals of economic development and control of population growth by the end of this century, priority efforts have to be made to curb the increasing rural population. Ideological education for peasants should be strengthened in order to elevate their scientific and cultural levels and improve the overall quality of the rural population. Adequate birth control measures and health care should be popularized in rural areas. Cooperation between the peasants and the government will bring down the fast growing rate of increase in the rural population.     

Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities]

In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.     

Establishing legal system completely and controlling the excessive population growth]

China during the early years of Socialism concentrated on economic development. Population problems were given a low priority. But now, at this point in China's history, it is necessary to maintain the stability and uniformity of the birth policy through legislation, alter attitudes toward childbearing through legal education, and protect through laws the enthusiastic nature of family planning work of cadres. Without legislation, family planning work cannot endure. It is the proper time to promulgate "Family Planning Law", the body of laws written by the State Council after 5 years of research in family planning work. Critics of this view feel that conditions in rural areas are not ripe for such a law, or that because China is large and populous, laws are not the proper method for controlling population, or that legal restrictions would bring unforeseen consequences in the future. But China's population problem is immediate and dire, and conditions are indeed ripe for passing this law.     

The population of Shanghai city: the present situation, some problems, and our recommendations]

A summary is presented of the history of Shanghai's population growth and the accompanying problems relative to high density, employment, housing, and transportation. Some suggestions for controlling Shanghai's population growth are made, including the need to accomodate population growth in national economic planning, to adopt effective measures to lower the birth rate in the suburbs, and to establish an organization with city-wide authority to develop population policy and to handle all population-related problems.     

我国独生子女规模估计及其生育政策调整对未来人口控制的影响

本文对目前人们关心的有关独生子女的生育政策是否应该调整、调整生育政策会对我国人口发展产生那些影响等问题进行探讨.为了实现这一目的,本文首先给出我国城镇人口中独生子女的规模和年龄分布估计的方法和模型,然后,利用得到的估计值对不同的独生子女生育政策进行队列模拟,通过比较得出结论.     

Preliminary analysis of the relationship between literacy quality and occupation of our minorities women and their population development]

Chinese women, particularly those of ethnic minorities were studied 3 major areas: 1) literacy, 2) occupation and 3) the relationship between population growth and literacy and occupation. All of the data referred to are based upon the National Census of 1982. Although there has been substantial improvement in literacy among women of ethnic groups in China since the 1950s, the present situation is still far from satisfactory. Illiteracy is 132.6% higher among women than among men on a national level, and the number of illiterate women belonging to ethnic groups is almost twice that of illiterate men. Among 55 ethnic groups examined, 40 has an illiteracy rate higher than that of the national level. At present, 90% of the members of ethnic groups are involved in traditional occupations such as farming, forestry, and fishing. The percentage of women in nontraditional occupations is much lower than that found on the national level. For instance, the number of male government officials is nationally 763% higher than the number of women in these professions; and it is 806% higher among ethnic groups. It is noted that population growth is directly related to literacy and occupation: The birth rate decreases in proportion to the increase in the number of women becoming educated and joining the work force. It is concluded that in order to lower the birth rate and to improve the status of the national population, the government should promote commodity production and modify the occupational structure by employing more women and further improving education.     

Paying attention to eugenics and to improving the quality of the population]

The role of eugenics in China's population policy is considered. Specific policy measures with eugenic implications are noted, including the prohibition of marriage between close relations, prevention of those with hereditary diseases from marrying and bearing children, promotion of genetic counseling and prenatal screening, encouragement of childbearing in the optimal ages for women, emphasis on prenatal care, improvement of obstetric care, and promulgation of information on eugenics.     

Change of population policy and the population situation in China]

A correct population policy is very crucial to the solution of the population problem, economic development, and social progress. The real situation in China now is a large population, a high rate of population growth, and low level of productivity. Facing this situation, China's population policy should include control of population growth in quantity, a promotion of population quality, and a match between population growth and social and economic development for the final realization of the Four Modernizations. In recent years, under the leadership of the National Committee on Family Planning, together with cooperation from various offices at the local level, a great change has taken place in China's population situation. The fertility rate has declined gradually, and late marriage, delayed births, and a reduced number of births have also become popular. A change in the age structure of the population has also slowed the pace of population growth. A reduction in the ratio of women of childbearing age is also helpful in the control of population growth, and the natural growth rate for the population has declined. This change shows that family planning is working in China and great results have been achieved. To come closer to the national goal of population control, practical work should be focused on rural areas. The rural population constitutes about 80% of total population and the fertility rate in rural areas is much higher than that of the cities. If population control can be achieved in the rural areas, the overall goal of population control for the country can then be achieved more easily.     

The population situation and its relation to the economy in Turkey]

In southwest Asia, Turkey is a leading nation in collecting complete data on its population through the use of a modern census. Based on available information, the development of Turkey's population can be summarized as follows: 1) in the last 20 years, Turkey's population increase rate has been 2% annually, very high by world standards; 2) the average age is young, and the population's burden coefficient is above 80%; and 3) the geographical distribution of the population is uneven. The population density in central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country is low, while the coastal provinces near the Black Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea have a high population density. In the last 50 years, the political situation in Turkey has remained stable. The national economy has developed rapidly, and the infant mortality rate has declined as a result of advancements in medicine and health care. Since Turkey is an Islamic country, birth control and abortion are not popular. The traditional early marriage for women and high illiteracy rate among women have contributed to a rapid population growth. In the past 20 years, however, the national economy has been overburdened by a rapid population growth. Problems of unemployment, a housing shortage in cities, inadequate public health facilities, a shortage of schools, a decline in farm land and inadequate food supplies have become increasingly obvious. Economically speaking, Turkey is much better than most developing nations. With its current foundation and rich natural resources, the country needs only to reduce the natural population increase rate slightly in order to achieve a balanced economic development.     

A tentative discussion on population control in Hangzhou and direction of its development]

Hangzhou is a city noted for its scenic beauty. In recent years, developments in industrial and agricultural production, cultural and educational improvements, and various constructions have made Hangzhou a more modernized city, and its population growth has become more rapid. According to one estimate, the number of childbearing women in 1987 will increase by 61% over the 1978 figure. With the mechanic (mobility) growth rate being higher than the natural growth rate, a large population is moving into Hangzhou each year, and the problem of overpopulation is becoming increasingly serious. The supply of newly built residences cannot match the demand, and the living standard is declining. Cultural and educational establishments, health care, and public facilities are unable to catch up with the speed of the population growth. Problems such as unemployment, traffic congestion, and environmental pollution are becoming more serious. In order to cope with the overall situation, the natural growth rate of the urban population should be controlled, and every married couple should be urged to have only 1 child. Satellite cities should be established and developed to match the city's economic development. Another necessary step is the redistribution of existing factories and industries inside the city and of the city's population so as to reduce pollution and noise. The increased labor population should receive better care in order to increase their productivity. Work in gardening and services should be encouraged in order to ease the pressure of unemployment and increase the tourist income.     

"Taking full responsibility" should be emphasized in the control of population growth]

Since the establishment of a responsible production system in the countryside, the living standard of the general public has risen constantly, but a new problem in family planning has also occurred. A great many people believe that more male children will eventually provide more labor and thus more income. Consequently, there has been a gradual rise in the birth rate. A crucial problem which needs an immediate solution is how to match the population growth and agricultural production. As a responsible production system is established, an appropriate family planning system should also be established. Married couples of childbearing age should sign contracts concerning family planning and should follow regulations outlined in the contract. Contract violators should be punished with fines, and thoas who follow the contract should be offered economic rewards. Cadres and responsible officials should take full responsibility for reaching the goals set for their respective county, district, commune or brigade, and their people should be rewarded or punished according to their performance. Special care should be given to the old, handicapped, orphans and widows and those who suffer from illness. Households with only one child should be awarded and encouraged with additional benefits. Taking full responsibility is a concept which should be used extensively in agricultural development, production management, and family planning.     

Significance and effect of the population census]

A summary of topics on which the Chinese government is seeking further information through the 1982 census is provided. Topics to be covered include total population; fertility, mortality, and growth rates; urban and rural population distribution; population projections, including age, sex, and marital status characteristics; labor force size; and minority population estimates.     

On the relationship between population and education]

The social and historical development of population and education is subject to the restriction of the means of production. Although it is not the major factor in determing the direction of social development, it has a great impact on social progress and historical development. The scale and level of educational development are not only influenced by social and economic conditions but are also related to the scale of population growth and the number of people who receive an education. In studies of the relationship between the population and education, special attention should be given to the impact of population growth upon education as well as the everlasting influence of education upon the population structure and social mobility. Since 1949, because of a rapid population growth, the existing educational system in China has suffered severe damage and destruction. There have been an insufficient number of schools and a shortage of funds for education for quite some time, and the population growth has caused great pressure on education. The relationship between the population and education in a modern society is a rather complicated problem. As a country with a large population and a backward education, China needs to develop its education and promote its population quality in order that favorable conditions may be created for the overall development of Socialist modernization.     

World population growth and the food supply]

The general trend in the last several hundred years has been that the speed of growth in the food supply exceeds the speed of the population growth. For the time being, 2 major problems still exist. The 1st problem is that food production is still influenced by natural conditions. For example, abnormal weather conditions may cause regional food shortages. The 2nd problem is the imbalance of food consumption by the world population. This phenomenon exists between different social classes as well as between developed and developing countries. According to statistics released by the World Bank, 1 billion suffer from malnutrition today and most of them are in developing countries. In developed countries, about half of their increase in the food supply is for feed grains, and those countries follow the policy of reducing farm land for the purpose of maintaing stabl e grain prices. Up to the present time, grain prices have been unstable, and this has become a rather heavy economic burden for numerous developing countries. Many developing countries are trying to increase grain production by increasing their arable land and promoting their cultivating techniques. However, these countries are facing the problems of finding and adequate water supply, fertilizer, and pesticides. In addition, a rapid population growth in these countries has offset their endeavors in agriculture. In recent years, these counties have realized the necessity of birth control. The world population growth rate has decreased from 2% to about 1.7% in 1981. Birth control and an increase in the food supply will bring new hope to the world's problems of overpopulation and food supply.     

The characteristics of Brazilian population and the population policy of the Brazilian government]

Current population trends in Brazil are described, with attention to ethnic composition, uneven spatial distribution, rapid growth in underdeveloped regions, and rural-urban migration. Consideration is also given to the government's population policy, including the dissemination of population information, the provision of free contraceptives, and the adoption of a target of a birth rate below 20 per 1,000 during the period 1981-2000.