Fertility and the Easterlin hypothesis: an assessment of the literature

Focusing just on the fertility aspects of the Easterlin hypothesis, this paper offers a critical assessment – rather than just a selective citation – of the extensive fertility literature generated by Easterlin, and a complete inventory of data and methodologies in seventy-six published analyses. With an equal number of micro- and macro-level analyses using North American data (twenty-two), the „track record” of the hypothesis is the same in both venues, with fifteen providing significant support in each case. The literature suggests unequivocal support for the relativity of the income concept in fertility, but is less clear regarding the source(s) of differences in material aspirations, and suggests that the observed relationship between fertility and cohort size has varied across countries and time periods due to the effects of additional factors not included in most models. Received: 16 July 1996 / Accepted: 26 September 1997     

Religion as a determinant of marital fertility

This paper develops hypotheses about the effects of husbands‘ and wives‘ religious affiliations on fertility. The hypotheses are based on two central ideas. First, religions differ in their fertility norms and corresponding tradeoffs between the quality and quantity of children; differences in religious beliefs between husband and wife may thus lead to conflict regarding fertility decisions and possible resolution through bargaining. Second, a low level of religious compatibility between the spouses may raise the expected probability of marital dissolution and thereby decrease the optimal amount of investments in spouse-specific human capital. Analyses of data from the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households conducted in the United States suggest that both of these effects play important roles in explaining the observed linkages between the religious composition of unions and fertility behavior. JEL classification: J1, J11, J13 Received February 17, 1995 / Accepted February 15, 1996     

Is the German apprenticeship system a panacea for the U.S. labor market?

This paper explores the structure of incentives undergirding the German system of apprenticeship training. We first describe characteristics of the German labor market which may lead firms to accept part of the cost of general training, even in the face of worker turnover. We then compare labor market outcomes for apprentices in Germany and high school graduates in the United States. Apprentices in Germany occupy a similar position within the German wage structure as held by high school graduates in the United States labor market. Finally, we provide evidence that – in both countries – the problem of forming labor market bonds is particularly acute for minority youth. JEL classification: J24, J31, J60 Received: July 4, 1996 / Accepted February 4, 1997     

Retirement patterns in Hong Kong: a censored regression analysis

This paper provides an overview of retirement patterns in Hong Kong on the basis of limited data. A censored regression model is used to infer the retirement age from people‘s current retirement status and their current age. This model is equivalent to a restricted probit model, and the interpretation of parameters is straightforward. The results clearly show a negative income effect on the retirement decision. The retirement age seems to be positively related to lifetime earnings but negatively related to the rate of decline of earnings with age. JEL classification: C24, J14, J26 Received May 6, 1996 / Accepted February 5, 1997     

Population policy: Authoritarianism versus cooperation

The people whose interests are most adversely affected by frequent bearing and rearing of children are young women. Social changes that expand the decisional power of young women (such as expansion of female literacy, or enhancement of female employment opportunity) can, thus, be major forces in the direction of reducing fertility rates. This “cooperative” route seems to act more securely – and often much faster – than the use of “coercion” in reducing family size and birth rates. This essay examines the comparative evidence from India and China on this subject as well as the interregional contrasts within India. JEL classification: J11, J13, O15 Received August 20, 1996/Accepted November 14, 1996     

The effects of teenage fertility on young adult childbearing

Numerous studies of fertility behavior find that an early age at first birth increases the rate of subsequent childbearing. Typically, however, these studies do not account for the possibility of serial correlation in the unobserved determinants of fertility. Using 1979–1992 individual-level data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this paper employs the Method of Simulated Moments to estimate panel probit models of annual birth outcomes. The panel probit models account for several alternative sources of serial correlation. Estimation reveals that once serial correlation is taken into account, the subsequent fertility effects of early childbearing are either statistically eliminated or reversed. JEL classification: J13 Received March 3, 1995 / Accepted February 23, 1996     

Teenage truancy,part-time working and wages

Part-time work whilst still in full-time education is common in many industrialized countries, and teenagers constitute a significant component of the work force in some sectors of the labour market. In Britain, in the early 1990‘s, some 60% of 16–18 year olds still in full time education also worked part-time. Although the determinants of teenager participation in the labour market have been studied previously (both in the United States and the United Kingdom), there remain a number of neglected questions. We address some of these in this paper, basing our analysis on data taken from the UK National Child Development Study. We first examine how teenagers divide their time between working and studying. We further analyse what explains teenage wages and labour supply. We utilise a rich set of variables describing parental background, as well as parents‘ labour force status and draw on information on physical stature to explain variations in wages. JEL classification: I20, J20, J31 Received March 26, 1996/Accepted May 16, 1997     

Family size,schooling and child labor in Peru -- an empirical analysis

This paper analyzes the effects of being indigenous, number of siblings, sibling activities and sibling age structure on child schooling progress and child non-school activity. The analysis is based on the Peru 1991 Living Standards Survey. The analysis shows that family size is important. However, the analysis also demonstrates the importance of taking into consideration the activities of siblings. The number of siblings not entrolled in school proves to be an important control variable in at least one specification of the empirical model. However, more research is needed on the interactions between siblings, their activities and their age structure. In other words, an attempt must be made to find ways of taking into account the “life cycle effects” of one‘s siblings on their schooling performance and labor force activity. The analysis also shows that the age structure of siblings is important, but in conjunction with their activities. That is, having a greater number of younger siblings implies less schooling, more age-grade distortion in the classroom and more child labor. JEL classification: J22, J23, I21 Received August 1, 1996 / Accepted February 21, 1997     

Below-replacement fertility and prospects for labour force growth in Taiwan

Fertility in Taiwan had declined to replacement level in 1983. In 1986–1997, the total fertility rate dropped to 1.7–1.8, with continuing decreases observed in 1997–2001. Fertility will probably be sustained at the 2001 level of 1.48 or even decline further in the future. If the current fertility and labour-force participation rates persist, the size of the labour force will increase only slightly in the next 15 years and begin to shrink soon after 2015. After 2034, the labour force will fall below the current level and Taiwan will face a labour shortage. Though efficient, the policy option of importing more foreign workers is fraught with political sensitivities, especially given the current economic downturn and rising unemployment. Another policy approach, to increase the participation rates for women and mature men, would lead to growth in the labour supply sometime after 2030 and, combined with a modest increase in fertility, would prevent the labour force from falling below its current size in the next 50 years. Notwithstanding that any increase in fertility will have a delayed effect on labour supply, strong incentives are still required to affect fertility behaviour.     

Who gets over the training hurdle? A study of the training experiences of young men and women in Britain

Using longitudinal data from the British National Child Development Study, this paper examines gender differences in the determinants of work-related training. The analysis covers a crucial decade in the working lives of this 1958 birth cohort of young men and women – the years spanning the ages of 23 to 33. Hurdle negative binomial models are used to estimate the number of work-related training events lasting at least three days. This approach takes into account the fact that more than half the men and two thirds of the women in the sample experienced no work-related training lasting three or more days over the period 1981 to 1991. Our analysis suggests that reliance on work-related training to improve the skills of the work force will result in an increase in the skills of the already educated, but will not improve the skills of individuals entering the labor market with relatively low levels of education. JEL classification: C25, I21, J24. Received February 9, 1996/Accepted August 14, 1996     

IRCA's impact on the occupational concentration and mobility of newly-legalized Mexican men

We examine the occupational concentration and mobility of a group of unauthorized Mexican men who received amnesty under IRCA to shed light on the role of legal status in the assimilation process. Initially these men are concentrated in a small number of traditional migrant jobs. Although their occupational mobility rate is high, it partly represents churning through these same occupations. When we consider the direction – either upward or downward – of occupational change, we find that English language ability and the characteristics of the occupation, itself, are strongly correlated with mobility before legalization. After legalization, few characteristics surpass in importance the common experience of having received amnesty. Received: 22 July 1997/Accepted: 2 February 1999     

Alegría! Flow in Leisure and Life Satisfaction: The Mediating Role of Event Satisfaction Using Data from an Acrobatics Show

The aim of the current study was to examine the role of satisfaction-with-event as a mediator in the relations between flow and life satisfaction based on the bottom-up theory (Andrews and Withey in Social indicators of well-being: Americans’ perceptions of life quality. Plenum, New York, 1976; Lee et al. in J Macromarketing 22(2): 158–169, 2002). Four hundred and thirty-four participants with a mean age of 35.60 (SD = 11.76) were recruited from the audience of a “Cirque du Soleil” acrobatics show, performed in Taiwan in 2009. Participants completed the flow scale (Csikszentmihalyi in Flow: the psychology of optimal experience. Harper & Row, New York, 1990), a satisfaction-with-event scale (Lin and Hsu in Mark Rev 3(4): 497–528, 2008), and a satisfaction-with-life scale (Diener et al. in J Pers Assess 49:71–75, 1985) immediately after viewing the show. Structural equation modeling was conducted to examine our hypothesis that satisfaction-with-event levels would fully mediate the relationship between flow and overall life satisfaction. Results supported our prediction and are discussed in terms of bottom-up theory. Implications of the study are also provided for the leisure managers.     

Crime and perceptions after a decade of democracy

Crime has become central to any discussion about the consolidation of democracy in South Africa. Concerns about crime intensified in the years after 1994, as the country attempted to grapple with the apparent ‘crime wave’ that accompanied the transition. A decade later crime is still a priority for government and a concern among citizens, but the clamour that characterised both state and civil society responses in the early years of democracy has receded (See the article by the author in Social Indicators Research 41: 137–168, 1997). This may relate to the decrease in crime levels as reflected by various statistical sources. It is also possible that those whose voices were heard most loudly on the issue – the middle classes – have taken all available measures to protect their property and lives from crime. In all likelihood, South Africans have become accustomed to living in a violent society, and one in which other equally serious problems now require attention. Although the national obsession with crime has waned, the available data nevertheless indicate that the problem still affects many thousands of lives. The impact of crime – in terms of the costs of victimisation, negative perceptions and fear, and the cost of responding to crime – remains high for South African society. This paper considers how crime levels and perceptions about crime and safety have changed over the past decade, and what these trends tell us about the country 10 years into our democracy.     

Birth and Fortune Revisited: A Cohort Analysis of Underemployment, 1974–2004

The cohort is a key concept in the study of social demography and social change. The enduring influence of cohort membership can arise from history-based and/or size-based effects. The most prominent proponent of size-based cohort effects is Easterlin (Birth and fortune: The impact of numbers on personal welfare, 1980) who argues that individuals hailing from unusually large cohorts will experience adverse labor market conditions relative to the members of the smaller cohorts that bracket them. Drawing on data from the March Current Population Survey for the period spanning 1974–2004, we examine the influence of relative cohort size on underemployment. The results provide modest support for the Easterlin thesis, showing the odds of underemployment to be greatest among members of relatively large cohorts, net of other significant predictors. The results also show that the impact of relative cohort size differs by educational level, suggesting that adverse economic conditions produced by large cohort size can be offset by broader changes in the labor market and other social institutions.

The Relative Importance of Health

This article seeks to extend Michalos’ [Social indicators research and health-related quality of life (QoL) research. Social Indicators Research, 65, 27–72, 2004] discussion on bridging social indicators research and health-related QoL (HRQoL) research through an examination of (1) the relative importance of satisfaction with one’s own health to another common measure of QoL—Life satisfaction, and (2) the relative importance of health in relation to other major life domains. Using data from two surveys, this article found that individuals may perceive health as most important in relation to other major life domains but satisfaction with one’s own health may not necessarily be the most important determining factor (in relation to satisfaction with other major life domains) of QoL as measured by life satisfaction. These findings support Michalos’ (Social indicators research and HRQoL research. Social Indicators Research, 65, 27–72, 2004) call for caution regarding the interpretation of research results on HRQoL since many HRQoL measures are measures of satisfaction with one’s own health and should not be considered as measures of QoL.     

A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility: indeterminacy and uniqueness

This paper studies the equilibrium dynamics and indeterminacy of equilibria in an endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility choice. We characterize the conditions that give rise to an unique equilibrium as well as multiple equilibria. Whenever there exists a unique equilibrium, it will be globally determinate; when multiple equilibria arise, indeterminacy occurs. In particular, we find that two equilibria occur – one is associated with high fertility and low growth, while the other is associated with low fertility and high growth. A parameterized example is given to assess the empirical feasibility of our results. The validity of the neo-Malthusian relation between fertility and growth is then re-examined. Finally, we study the relation between growth and welfare and compare different balanced growth equilibria in terms of their lifetime-attained utility. JEL classifications: O41, J13 Received December 11, 1995 / Accepted October 20, 1996     

An assessment of the own-children method of estimating fertility by birthplace in Australia

This paper examines the validity of the own-children method of fertility estimates derived from the 1991 Census by a detailed investigation of mortality assumptions, the presence of non-own children, age misreporting and undercount. A comparison of fertility measures derived alternatively from the census using the own-children method and from vital statistics for the period 1987–91 indicates remarkably similar rates for Australia-born women, and plausible results for long established migrant groups. The own-children fertility levels for some recently arrived migrant groups, however, were found to be misleading. It is suggested that the own-children method is useful for the study of differential current fertility in Australia. Revised version of an essay awarded the W.D. Borrie Prize (graduate section), 1997, and presented to the session: Advances in methods for the analysis of demographic data of the 23rd General Conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 11–17 October, Beijing. This paper is based on the author’s PhD thesis entitled:Fertility patterns of Australian selected immigrant groups, 1977–91.     

Safety and Home–School Relations as Indicators of Children Well Being: Whose Perspective Counts?

Recent attention to children’s well being has generated research showing that safety and home–school relations are two of the most important indicators of children’s well being. Recent studies have also demonstrated the consistent differences in perspectives between children and teachers and between parents and teachers in regard to home–school relations and between children and parents in regard to children safety. This paper reports findings from an exploratory study, conducted as part of the “Strong Communities” initiative in South Carolina, comparing between the three perspectives of children, parents, and teachers in regard to children both home–school relations and safety. The findings show significant differences regarding almost all items between the three groups. For example, teachers felt school and the way to and back from school were safer for children than how the children themselves felt. However, other patterns were found with regard to home–school relations. The article concludes with a discussion of the apparent weight given to each of these perspectives, possible explanations for the gaps found and its practical implications for social indicators usage.     

Importance has been Considered in Satisfaction Evaluation: an Experimental Examination of Locke’s Range-of-affect Hypothesis

Importance weighting is a common practice in quality of life (QOL) measurement research. Based on the widespread idea that important domains should make a greater contribution to individuals’ QOL total score, the weighting procedure of multiplying item satisfaction by an item’s importance has been adopted in many QOL instruments. Locke’s [1969, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 4, 309–336; 1976, Handbook of Industrial and Organizational Psychology. Rand McNally, Chicago, pp. 1297–1343] range-of-affect hypothesis indicated that a satisfaction evaluation is determined by the have-want discrepancy, importance, and the interaction of the have-want discrepancy and importance, implying that a satisfaction evaluation incorporates the judgment of importance and weighting the satisfaction score with the importance score is unnecessary. The purpose of the current study was to address the issue of importance weighting by examining Locke’s range-of-affect hypothesis in the context of QOL research. A within-subject experiment was conducted to see if, given a varying amount of discrepancy, participants would reveal whether or not satisfaction/dissatisfaction is related to the dimension of importance placed on the object. Forty undergraduate students at National Taiwan University participated in the current study. Results revealed that the association between have-want discrepancy and object satisfaction is stronger on the high important dimension than the less important dimension. Generally, the results were consistent with Locke’s range-of-affect hypothesis, revealing that a satisfaction evaluation has incorporated the judgment of item importance, suggesting that the procedure of importance weighting is unnecessary. This paper was a part of the first author’s Master’s Thesis.     

Private versus public financing of education and endogenous growth: A comment on Bräuninger and Vidal

This note shows that the long-run effect in the case of a low skill trap in Br?uninger and Vidal (Journal of Population Economics (2000) 13:387–401) contains a mistake. While not affecting the paper's basic intuition, this implies that the discussion in the short-run analysis also applies in the long-run. Received: 24 April 2001/Accepted: 9 June 2001 I wish to thank Alessandro Cigno and an anonymous referee for useful comments. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.