Engineering Compensation Systems:

A commissioned payment system was installed at a small business to study a pay-for-performance system. Self-generated feedback, traditional wage payments, and contingent commissions were investigated in combination to assess their effects on daily productivity (in dollars billed) for two machinists. Results showed increases in dollar productivity for both feedback and commissions. The commission system, however, when combined with feedback, produced the largest increases in production. The intervention lasted for 40 working days. Moreover, organizational time and expenses in implementation were minimal. Implications for the management of organizations include: 1) the effects of feedback administered alone and in combination with contingent commissions, 2) the high ratio of benefits to costs, and 3) the potential savings that could be realized in quality of performance and staffing areas. The need for replication is also discussed.     

Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures

Recently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience into platform and mission resilience. Most complex systems have multiple performance measures; this research proposes using multiple objective decision analysis to assess system resilience for systems with multiple performance measures using two distinct methods. The first method quantifies platform resilience and includes resilience and other “ilities” directly in the value hierarchy, while the second method quantifies mission resilience and uses the “ilities” in the calculation of the expected mission performance for every performance measure in the value hierarchy. We illustrate the mission resilience method using a transportation systems‐of‐systems network with varying levels of resilience due to the level of connectivity and autonomy of the vehicles and platform resilience by using a notional military example. Our analysis found that it is necessary to quantify performance in context with specific mission(s) and scenario(s) under specific threat(s) and then use modeling and simulation to help determine the resilience of a system for a given set of conditions. The example demonstrates how incorporating system mission resilience can improve performance for some performance measures while negatively affecting others.     

Why Frequency is Not Well Defined for Engineering Systems with Nonexponential Failure Times

Dr. Yellman proposes to define frequency as “a time‐rate of events of a specified type over a particular time interval.” We review why no definition of frequency, including this one, can satisfy both of two conditions: (1) the definition should agree with the ordinary meaning of frequency, such as that less frequent events are less likely to occur than more frequent events, over any particular time interval for which the frequencies of both are defined; and (2) the definition should be applicable not only to exponentially distributed times between (or until) events, but also to some nonexponential (e.g., uniformly distributed) times. We make the simple point that no definition can satisfy (1) and (2) by showing that any definition that determines which of any two uniformly distributed times has the higher “frequency” (or that determines that they have the same “frequency,” if neither is higher) must assign a higher frequency number to the distribution with the lower probability of occurrence over some time intervals. Dr. Yellman's proposed phrase, “time‐rate of events … over a particular time interval” is profoundly ambiguous in such cases, as the instantaneous failure rates vary over an infinitely wide range (e.g., from one to infinity), making it unclear which value is denoted by the phrase “time‐rate of events.”     

Designing Distribution Systems to Support Vendor Strategies in Supply Chain Management*

The interactions among a firm's distribution strategy, market share, and distribution costs are an important consideration in the design of supply chain networks. However, these interactions are largely ignored by existing distribution system design methodologies, which assume demand is constant regardless of the firm's distribution strategy. This paper describes a multidisciplinary framework that considers these interactions in the design of “profit maximizing” distribution networks. The framework employs two major decision support methodologies: (1) binary logit models for estimating market share considering various demand-influencing parameters such as product price and distribution service, and (2) a mixed-integer programming (MIP) model for finding optimal distribution network designs. We applied the framework to an actual design problem facing a national distributor of industrial chemical products. The test results verify the framework's large-scale capability and the potential benefit of the integrated solution methodology.     

Integrating Risk and Resilience Approaches to Catastrophe Management in Engineering Systems

Recent natural and man‐made catastrophes, such as the Fukushima nuclear power plant, flooding caused by Hurricane Katrina, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the mortgage derivatives crisis, have renewed interest in the concept of resilience, especially as it relates to complex systems vulnerable to multiple or cascading failures. Although the meaning of resilience is contested in different contexts, in general resilience is understood to mean the capacity to adapt to changing conditions without catastrophic loss of form or function. In the context of engineering systems, this has sometimes been interpreted as the probability that system conditions might exceed an irrevocable tipping point. However, we argue that this approach improperly conflates resilience and risk perspectives by expressing resilience exclusively in risk terms. In contrast, we describe resilience as an emergent property of what an engineering system does, rather than a static property the system has. Therefore, resilience cannot be measured at the systems scale solely from examination of component parts. Instead, resilience is better understood as the outcome of a recursive process that includes: sensing, anticipation, learning, and adaptation. In this approach, resilience analysis can be understood as differentiable from, but complementary to, risk analysis, with important implications for the adaptive management of complex, coupled engineering systems. Management of the 2011 flooding in the Mississippi River Basin is discussed as an example of the successes and challenges of resilience‐based management of complex natural systems that have been extensively altered by engineered structures.     

国际工程造价管理体制的比较研究

工程造价管理体制改革—直是近两年来国家经济体制改革的一个重要组成部分。随着我国建筑市场体制改革的深入,对于这一课题的研究已经成为当务之急。本文运用比较管理研究的方法深入分析和对照了中国香港、英联邦国家、美国、日本和我国的工程造价管理体制,分别从工程造价总的管理体制、政府性工程项目管理体制和具体的工程造价管理方式方法阐述了各自的利弊和我们在工程造价管理体制改革中应该借鉴的地方。     

基于人工智能贷款风险分类的系统设计

近年提出的贷款风险五级分类法,需考虑财务、非财务、现金流量、信用支持及逾期时间等诸方面要素的影响.由于涉及有定量因素也有定性因素分析,这给处理分类问题带来一定的复杂性.为此本文探讨将人工智能技术中的神经网络和专家系统应用于贷款风险分类研究.文中用BP神经网络进行财务分析,而运用专家系统采用"规则组"的知识表示策略,对其它诸因素及分类综合进行了分析.从而得出了最终的贷款风险分类等级.     

System of Systems Engineering and Risk Management of Extreme Events: Concepts and Case Study

The domain of risk analysis is expanded to consider strategic interactions among multiple participants in the management of extreme risk in a system of systems. These risks are fraught with complexity, ambiguity, and uncertainty, which pose challenges in how participants perceive, understand, and manage risk of extreme events. In the case of extreme events affecting a system of systems, cause‐and‐effect relationships among initiating events and losses may be difficult to ascertain due to interactions of multiple systems and participants (complexity). Moreover, selection of threats, hazards, and consequences on which to focus may be unclear or contentious to participants within multiple interacting systems (ambiguity). Finally, all types of risk, by definition, involve potential losses due to uncertain events (uncertainty). Therefore, risk analysis of extreme events affecting a system of systems should address complex, ambiguous, and uncertain aspects of extreme risk. To accomplish this, a system of systems engineering methodology for risk analysis is proposed as a general approach to address extreme risk in a system of systems. Our contribution is an integrative and adaptive systems methodology to analyze risk such that strategic interactions among multiple participants are considered. A practical application of the system of systems engineering methodology is demonstrated in part by a case study of a maritime infrastructure system of systems interface, namely, the Straits of Malacca and Singapore.     

On the adoption of technological innovations in industry: Superficial models and complex decision processes

Attention is directed first to the external as well as the internal contexts within which prospective innovations are evaluated. Turning to the actual decision-making processes, a review of the evaluational bases for decision is followed by consideration of how these lead to actual decisions and often to subsequent revisions of the original decisions. The final section is concerned with some common shortcomings of prevailing approaches to evaluating the post-installation effects of technological innovations in industry. It also offers some suggestions for improving such efforts and for using such improvements to enhance the effective appraisal of future innovations.     

先进制造系统——信息技术、工程技术和管理技术的有机融合

从信息技术、工程技术和管理技术各自不同的主导作用出发,对先进制造系统进行分类研究.简要介绍了各种先进制造系统模式.分析了先进制造系统的信息技术、工程技术和管理技术有机融合的特点.     

Engineering changes for made-to-order products: How an MRP II system should handle them

Engineering or design changes are an integral part of any design and manufacturing chain of activities. In a made-to-order environment, standard design changes are outnumbered by those emerging during the design and manufacturing stages of individual contracts. This paper discusses the peculiarities of engineering changes in such an environment and proposes an integrated approach to monitoring, controlling and reporting of related activities, using a combination of MRP II modules, enhanced with manual forms, aimed at minimizing the painful impact of numerous design updates throughout the in-house product life cycle.     

基于系统安全工程能力成熟模型的信息系统风险评估

本文在信息系统风险分析中,采用系统安全工程能力成熟模型作为理论依据,构造出基于模型的风险评估指标体系,并运用模糊评判方法评估了系统的风险程度.     

伴随销售商促销努力的供应链契约设计

在大多数供应链契约文献中,市场需求被假设为了一个独立的外生随机变量.但实际情况中,市场需求往往受到销售商各种促销活动的影响.文中首先分析了在市场需求受促销活动影响情况下的集中控制模式及不合作模式的销售商最优促销努力水平和最优订购数量的决策问题;然后设计了基于回购契约的促销成本分担契约协调机制;最后通过一个算例比较了在不采取任何促销活动、不合作情况下销售商单方进行促销活动以及协调机制下销售商进行促销活动三种策略下的供应链绩效水平.     

筛选不同竞争类型零售商的贸易信用合同设计研究

考虑了信息不对称环境下资金约束供应链中贸易信用合同的设计问题。其中,零售商面临资金短缺困境,对自身的竞争类型具有信息优势;供应商愿意为资金短缺的零售商提供贸易信用。本文基于高低不同类型零售商的保留收益信息,将零售商的竞争环境分为三种类型,即高度竞争、适度竞争和低度竞争。据此,供应商应用筛选方法设计合同甄别不同竞争环境的零售商类型,提高自身和供应链的整体收益。研究还表明,在信息不对称的情况下,适度竞争环境中,贸易信用合同能实现供应链整体收益最大化。     

代理人间具有竞争关系的薪酬激励机制设计

销售系统中存在着典型的信息不对称情况:委托人(公司)对代理人(销售人员)的努力程度具有不对称信息,委托人不能观测到代理人努力程度,因而常根据销售业绩来制定薪酬激励机制.本文研究销售系统中具有多个代理人且代理人之间存在竞争关系的委托代理问题.在假设市场最终需求对努力水平敏感,且某代理人努力水平提高时,他可以在开拓市场的同时,吸引对方顾客的条件下,建立了具有多代理人且代理人间存在竞争的委托代理模型.得到当努力成本、风险规避度、产出不确定性越大,代理人的风险分担越小,利润提成越低,越倾向于取得固定工资;竞争程度越高,代理人的努力程度也随之提高;利用代理人之间的竞争可以使委托人获利等结论.     

Assessing bank soundness with classification techniques

The recent crisis highlighted, once again, the importance of early warning models to assess the soundness of individual banks. In the present study, we use six quantitative techniques originating from various disciplines to classify banks in three groups. The first group includes very strong and strong banks; the second one includes adequate banks, while the third group includes banks with weaknesses or serious problems. We compare models developed with financial variables only, with models that incorporate additional information in relation to the regulatory environment, institutional development, and macroeconomic conditions. The accuracy of classification of the models that include only financial variables is rather poor. We observe a substantial improvement in accuracy when we consider the country-level variables, with five out of the six models achieving out-of-sample classification accuracy above 70% on average. The models developed with multi-criteria decision aid and artificial neural networks achieve the highest accuracies. We also explore the development of stacked models that combine the predictions of the individual models at a higher level. While the stacked models outperform the corresponding individual models in most cases, we found no evidence that the best stacked model can outperform the best individual model.