Women and retirement planning: towards the "feminization of poverty" in an aging Hong Kong

Hong Kong's population is aging but retirement research is largely missing from the research agenda in Hong Kong. This study, based on a telephone survey of 1,078 respondents, examines middle-aged adult's retirement planning activities in Hong Kong. The findings show men are more likely to be involved in financial planning, while women are more likely to take part in some forms of health, living arrangement and psychological planning for retirement. Further, there are age, education and income differences in the various forms of retirement planning activities within genders. Women are living longer; because of their lack of financial retirement planning, they are prime candidates for poverty. The discussion concludes with policy implications related to assisting midlife individuals, in particular women, in planning for retirement.     

World fertility and the women's situation]

In 1981, total number of childbearing women in the world reached 9.8 hundred million. Their socioeconomic status and fertility level are very important data for the study of women's liberation and population control. Facing limited natural resources and a constant growing demand, many nations are studying how to control the population growth and achieve a "zero population growth." In nations with a high GNP, such as Switzerland, West Germany, and France, fertility is low. On the contrary, countries in central and south Asia and most parts of Africa are the poorest economically, and their fertility rate has remained very high. Another factor which is related to the fertility level is the degree of women's participation in the labor market. In Europe and North America, the percentage of women's participation in economic activities is high, and fertility is low. In Latin America and Africa, fertility is high, and the percentage of women's participation in economic labor is low. From the above, we may conclude that promotion of women's participation in the labor market and better employment conditions will reduce fertility. Another 2 factors related to fertility are marriage age and birth control rate. Late marriage and the extensive use of birth control measures are effective methods for reducing fertility. All the above mentioned factors are closely related to the woman's educational background. If women receive a better education and find better employment opportunities, delay their marriage age, and take birth control measures, fertility will be reduced and the population growth will be under control.     

Population pressures in Latin America

In 1950 Latin America's population of 165 million was on a par with the 166 million of North America. 2 decades of growth at nearly 3% a year pushed the total to 405 million in 1985, vs. 264 million in North America. Despite substantial fertility declines since the 1960s, continued growth is ensured by the demographic momentum built into the region's large and youthful population bases. UN medium projections put the 2025 total at 779 million, compared to 345 million in North America. This Bulletin examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II and their links to economic and social changes in the region as well as their implications for international and social relations. The post World War II population surge was accompanied by massive rural-ruban and international migration, rapid urbanization, large labor shifts out of agriculture into industry and services, increased education for both men and women, and higher labor force participation for females. The rural exodus was spurred by extreme land tenure inequalities and the urban bias of postwar industrialization. The labor-saving bias of this industrialization forced exploding city populations to turn to the informal sector for jobs. Population pressures on city services and housing as well as jobs have been further exacerbated by overconcentration in a few large cities and economic downturns of the 1980s. Recent fertility declines seem to be the result of both increased access to family planning and the economic and social pressures posed by the gap between young adults' aspirations and their ability to realize them. Population and economic pressures could induce faster fertility declines than now projected but in the short run are likely to mean more employment problems, continued rapid urban growth, and even larger international immigration flows within the hemisphere, particularly to the US.     

中国生育政策的发展变迁要览

1949年末,全国（不包括台湾省和港澳地区）总人口为54167万人,出生率为36％o,死亡率为20％o,自然增长率为16％o,总和生育率为6．14。1953年中国第一次全国人口普查结果显示,截至1953年6月30日24时,中国总人口为60193．8万人。     

香港人口死亡率演变及其未来发展

与其它发展地区类似 ,二战以后香港人口死亡率已经经历了显著的下降 ,达到了一个非常低的水平。在这种极低水平的现状下 ,香港人口死亡率进一步下降的空间还有多大呢 ?本文基于香港人口死亡率历史数据 ,探讨了其演变趋势 ,同时利用Lee -Carter模型对香港未来 5 0年分性别的人口死亡率进行了预测。如果我们将预测结果与最近的官方预测数据进行比较 ,可以发现 ,本文Lee -Carter模型预测的未来香港人口死亡率下降趋势比官方预测结果要乐观     

Changes in fertility rates and family size in response to changes in age at marriage, the trend away from arranged marriages, and increasing urbanization

Abstract Demographers have proposed a long list of factors that help explain why population growth and fertility rates respond to rising levels of urbanization, economic growth and national development.(2) Two of the many suggested influences will be investigated in the present paper with regard to urban Hong Kong.     

Quality of Life in Hong Kong: Past Accomplishments And Future Prospects

Following several decades of rapid economic expansion, development in Hong Kong has arrived at a new crossroads. The pace of economic growth is no longer as rapid as during earlier decades, competition with other East Asian societies has grown more acute and many of the territory’s recurrent, sometimes hidden, social problems appear to be undermining selected aspects of Hong Kong’s quality of life. And Hong Kong’s political tensions with the central government in Beijing have become more confrontational since its return in 1997 to Chinese political sovereignty. This article: (1) summarizes the current state of social development in Hong Kong; (2) identifies the major social, political and economic challenges that confront Hong Kong at the beginning of a new development decade; (3) compares selected aspects of Hong Kong’s social development with that of other East Asian societies; and (4) suggests a variety of policy options that are available to leaders in Hong Kong’s for promoting a more balanced approach to social and economic development. The article also illustrates the use of social reports and social reporting in advancing development assessment and planning.     

Social Development in Hong Kong: Development Issues Identified by Social Development Index (SDI)

Surviving the aftermaths of the Asian Financial Crisis and SARS in 2003, Hong Kong’s economy has re-gained its momentum and its economic growth has been quite remarkable too in recent few years. Nevertheless, as reflected by the Social Development Index (SDI), economic growth in Hong Kong does not seem to have benefited the people of the city at large as we see social qualities such as cohesion, security, equity, and empowerment are gradually eroded. This paper aims to summarize the current state of social development in Hong Kong based on the SDI-2008 and identify the major social, political and economic challenges that are confronted by Hong Kong. Based on the findings, a range of policy options proposed for promoting a more balanced approach to social and economic development are discussed. The article illustrates the utility of social indicators research such as the SDI in assessing quality of life and assisting related social planning initiatives in Asian communities such as Hong Kong.     

Future Trends In World Population Growth

Because world population growth is marked by differing trends in the more developed and developing regions, the successful solution of future social and demographic problems will depend, in all likelihood, on whether population growth is considered in isolation or as a problem which is inextricably interwoven with other leading features of social and economic development.Both total population growth and changing age structure produce new economic and social problems, and within both the more developed and the developing regions, there are sub-areas in various stages of development. First, together with the total estimated increase in working-age population, there will be substantial differences in age structure. Although the proportion of world population of dependent age is expected to go down, up to 1980its level will be higher than in 1960, owingto an upward tendency in developing regions, where the "heavy youth dependency" is so extraordinarily high that even in 1980 there will be about ten children to every old person, and at the end of the century, more than seven. It is estimated that in the more developed regions there will be twenty-five to every one-hundred old persons in 1980, and twenty-two in the year 2000. This shows that heavy old-age dependency will have arisen in these regions. Second, the dependency ratio will probably grow, moreover, as a consequence of the degree of economic activity and variation. Although there will bea decrease in the proportion of dependent children, these will still constitute over one-half of the dependents in all areas. These forecasts seem to indicate that the changing structure of dependency and the increase in its total volume may be expected to create problems, particularly in the developing regions. Third, working life tends to become longer as a result of declining mortality, and this, combined with rising labor-force replacement levels, will result in an increased total labor supply.While such an expansion of world population obviously emphasizes the quantitative aspect of population problems, structural and qualitative aspects seem to be of equal importance. But these aspects are largely overshadowed by the growth problem, for growing numbers of people have more and more needs: the inflow of people into schools, into the labor market, and into towns and cities will be apparently unprecedented.In recent years circumstances have not favored the development of conditions needed for rapid change in reproductive behavior in the developing regions. The mobilization of resources and the adaption of different types of society in view of the future growth of total population-with emphasis on the less-developed regions-will be one of the most important challenges to mankind's ability to meet its own needs.The main value of the calculations of various characteristics of future population growth discussed in this paper is to show "in the light of contemporary information" future trends and some relationships of world population of world population growth to economic and social development.     

On some characteristics of the population development in the Shenzhen Special Economic Region]

Shenzhen was originally a town in Guandong Province. In 1979, it was made into a Special Economic Region in order to cope with the needs of modernization. Because of rapid economic development, the population has also been growing rapidly. Before 1979, the total population of Shenzhen was only 20,000, both industry and agriculture were backward, and the living standard was low. After it was made a Special Economic Region, its population figure reached 200,000 according to a 1982 report. The age structure of the local population is young, and there are more males than females. In the last two years, because of family planning measures, the natural population growth rate has shown an obvious downward trend. The population development of Shenzhen has several characteristics: 1) the pace of population growth is very fast; 2) the educational level for the population is high, and investment in education is emphasized; 3) population mobility is strong, and it has an extensive impact on the local market, transportation, and social order; 4) the social and economic systems of Hong Kong have a special influence on its population development. Special studies and discussions concerning how to control Shenzhen's population growth, how to determine the trends toward change in age structure, and how to promote population quality and spiritual civilization should be conducted according to characteristics of the local population development.     

中国人口转变、人口红利与经济增长的实证

我国人口年龄结构的变动使得劳动负担逐渐下降,这对于储蓄水平的上升和劳动力投入效率的提高具有显著的促进作用;我国劳动负担比与经济增长呈现出明显的负相关,劳动负担比每下降1个百分点,经济增长将提高1.06个百分点,在过去的30年里劳动负担降低累计带来的经济增长占总增长的27.23%。通过计量检验证明人口年龄结构变动所产生的促进经济增长的人口红利是存在的。由此我们推断,由于未来的人口年龄结构变动趋向人口老龄化,劳动负担逐步上升,这将会对未来的经济增长造成制约。利用未来10～20年时间较轻的劳动负担的机遇期,我们应当建立良好的教育、人力资本投资、社会保障等方面的制度以及制定积极的人口政策,调整当前生育政策、适时执行宏观经济政策(劳动就业政策)来应对已发生的、正在进行的人口变动,使我国的经济继续保持强有力的增长态势。     

A comment on 'social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline' by Sui-Ying Wat and R. W. Hodge

Abstract The recent article by Wat and Hodge appears to make incorrect inferences about the relation of certain social and economic indicators (infant mortality, employment opportunities for women, and education) to Hong Kong's fertility decline, based on a multiple regression of these variables to the crude birth rate of Hong Kong for 1951-1967. Such modernization measures probably have at least a long-run causal relation to fertility decline. It is also possible that the family planning programme ofHong Kong may have added little to the effects, as the authors suggest. However, I do not believe that their multiple regression analysis establishes these conclusions.     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Economic development and fertility decline: lessons from Asia's newly industrialized countries

The general thesis that economic development and fertility decline are interrelated is substantiated in literature that discusses the successes of the newly industrialized countries of Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan. When countries are developing rapidly, family planning accelerates the rate of fertility change, particularly among the poor uneducated rural population. Relying on economic and social development is not enough. National policy in Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea, and Taiwan recognized that population growth drains resources and the family planning programs operating since the 1960s contributed to a drop from 5 children/woman to 2 by 1988, and 70% of married couples used contraception. Coupled with this, age at marriage rose, contraception became more available, and educational and employment opportunities increased. Economically, the growth rate in the 1980's was 6-10% annually, with growth in the manufacturing and service sectors and export trade. Close economic ties evolved between governments and private sectors. Social development programs had been fully funded and gains evident in education, living standards, health care and nutrition, and life expectancy. The success of family planning is attributed to encouraging contraceptive awareness and use. Fertility reduction may occur with social and economic development, but no developing countries have reduced fertility without family planning. The relative importance of family planning may change over time, and reducing the cost through government sponsored family planning programs and encouraging the acceptability of contraceptive usage.     

Pakistan's population growth: the need for action

Despite the existence of a national family planning program that dates to 1965 Pakistan has not seen a reduction in the fertility rate. One of the poorest countries in the world, Pakistan has 1 of the highest population growth rates in the world at about 3.0% annually. For over 2 decades, the average woman in Pakistan has given birth to more than 6 children. At the current fertility rate, the country's current population of 120 million will increase to over 150 million by the year 2000, and it will increase to 280 million by 2020. And even if today every woman were to begin having only 2 children, the population would still reach 160 million before leveling off. But reducing fertility in Pakistan will prove difficult. One of the leading obstacles is the low status of women. Few women in Pakistan have advanced education or professional jobs. Only 1/4 of those women without education or who are not working have any knowledge concerning contraception. Family size and composition also fuel the high rate of fertility. On the average, women desire 5 children (the fact that women average more than 5 suggests an unmet need for contraception). And due to social, cultural, and economic conditions, Pakistanis generally prefer male offsprings. Islamic opposition to family planning has also contributed to the continued high rates of fertility. Finally, administrative and management weaknesses have hindered Pakistan's family planning program. In order to overcome these obstacles, Pakistan will have to enlist the commitment of political, religious, and community leaders. The status of women will have to be improved, and the attitudes of people will need to change.     

香港产业结构变动对收入分配的影响——基于人口普查数据的分析

香港是全球发达的市场经济体之一，也是贫富差距最大的地区之一。本文主要采用香港2006、2001及2011年人口普查数据，并结合产业结构变动历史对香港产业结构变动如何影响收入分配的议题展开研究。本文认为，香港产业结构变动形塑了当前的行业、职业结构，决定了经济发展重心和未来发展方向。此外，经由教育途径，香港产业结构知识专业化的特征已日益凸显。由此，香港产业结构不但缔造了当地经济繁荣，同时通过行业、职业、教育等变量对香港收入分配产生了深远影响。作者期望，本研究的开展能为香港产业升级提供绵薄的科学参考依据，以此实现香港经济健康、可持续发展和收入分配公平的美好愿景。     

Estimating the effects of immigration in one city

This paper presents a new method of estimating the effects of immigration on the labor market that does not require variations in immigration across cities. With a two-stage CES model that aggregates immigrant groups by age cohorts and aggregates cohorts into effective labor, the econometric estimation and the interpretation of parameters are particularly straightforward. The paper uses data from Hong Kong to estimate the elasticities of complementarity associated with increased immigration. A simulation study indicates that a 40% increase in the stock of new immigrants will lower wages by no more than one percent. Received: 13 August 1997/Accepted: 7 December 1998     

中国中长期劳动力供需趋势分析

文章采用Leslie方法预测2015-2050年中国人口总量及其年龄分布结构．据此预测劳动年龄人口的劳动力供给总量,根据经济增长的就业弹性预测劳动力的需求总量,计算劳动力供需缺口。结果表明．劳动力供给和需求总量都呈现减少趋势,供给减少更快,2015年后,劳动力市场将出现供不应求的现象。供需缺口将长期存在并有扩大趋势。面对劳动力市场出现的供需缺口问题,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Analysis on China's Labor Supply and Demand Trend for a Long-term

The paper take Leslie method to forecast China's total population and its age distribution structure from 2015 to 2050,and then predict the total labor supply of the working-age population,estimate the total demand for labor according to the employment elasticity of the economic growth,calculated the gap between labor supply and demand.The results show that both the labor supply and demand showed a decreasing trend,but the supply reduced faster than demand,after 2015,the labor market appears shortage,the gap between supply and demand will exist for a long time and have a tendency to expand.Facing of the new situation and new problems of the labor market,we recommend some corresponding policy.     

The demographic situation in the ESCAP region viewed in terms of social welfare. (Abstracted information from Committee on Population,Second Session,Bangkok, Thailand,December 13-19, 1978.)

The combined population of the ESCAP region is estimated to be growing by an annual increment of 50 million people, and is expected to reach an estimated 2936 million in 1990, when it will constitute 55.4% of the total world population. Continued population growth implies a demand for food, and the majority of the ESCAP countries have to depend on imports to meet their food requirements. Main problems are to improve the capability to produce more food, to adequately provide for health services, housing, and educational facilities for a fast expanding school-age population. With the continuing high rate of population growth the labor force will continue to increase and result in a high rate of unemployment. Population planning must be made an integral part of the over-all plans for socioeconomic development of the entire region.