Uncommon Priors Require Origin Disputes

In standard belief models, priors are always common knowledge. This prevents such models from representing agents’ probabilistic beliefs about the origins of their priors. By embedding standard models in a larger standard model, however, pre-priors can describe such beliefs. When an agent’s prior and pre-prior are mutually consistent, he must believe that his prior would only have been different in situations where relevant event chances were different, but that variations in other agents’ priors are otherwise completely unrelated to which events are how likely. Due to this, Bayesians who agree enough about the origins of their priors must have the same priors.     

Indigenous land and sea management programs: Can they promote regional development and help “close the (income) gap”?

Throughout the world, there is growing recognition of the important role Indigenous people play in natural resource management and conservation. Indigenous Land and Sea Management Programs (ILSMPs; which provide funds to Indigenous people to support Indigenous land management activities) are also known to generate social and economic benefits, although relative few of these co‐benefits have been quantified. Using northern Australia as a case study, we analysed data on ILSMP expenditure within three regional input–output tables, learning more about the size and distribution of their associated regional economic benefits. We found ILSMPs make a significant contribution to regional economies—with multipliers commonly exceeding that of other key regional industries such as agriculture and mining. We also found ILSMP expenditures make a larger contribution to Indigenous household incomes than they do to non‐Indigenous incomes—thus helping to close the (income) gap. They will continue to do so, provided the proportion of ILSMP money spent on Indigenous (compared to non‐Indigenous) incomes does not fall below a threshold amount. Rather than finding evidence of a trade‐off between socio‐ecological and financial/economic goals, our results suggest ILSMPs, known for their ecological importance, can also make a vitally important contribution to economic development in rural areas.     

Use of data on planned contributions and stated beliefs in the measurement of social preferences

In a series of one-shot linear public goods game, we ask subjects to report their contributions, their contribution plans for the next period, and their first-order beliefs about their present and future partner. We estimate subjects’ preferences from plan data by a finite mixture approach and compare the results with those obtained from contribution data. Controlling for beliefs, which incorporate the information about the others’ decisions, we are able to show that plans convey accurate information about subjects’ preferences and, consequently, are good predictors of their future behavior.     

The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions

Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments. In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past or anticipated decisions on these beliefs.

Subjective beliefs and confidence when facts are forgotten

Forgetting can be a salient source of uncertainty for subjective beliefs, confidence, and ambiguity attitudes. To investigate this, we run several experiments where people bet on propositions (facts) that they cannot recall with certainty. We use betting preferences to infer subjects’ revealed beliefs and their revealed confidence in these beliefs. Forgetting is induced via interference tasks and time delays (up to one year). We observe a natural memory decay pattern where beliefs become less accurate and confidence is reduced as well. Moreover, we find a form of comparative ignorance where subjects are more ambiguity averse when they cannot recall the truth rather than never having learnt it. In a different vein, we identify an overconfidence pattern: on average, subjects overpay for bets on propositions that they believe in, but underpay for the opposite bets. We formulate a two-signal behavioral model of forgetting that generates all of these patterns. It suggests new testable hypotheses that are confirmed by our data.

     

Electronic cigarette risk beliefs and usage after the vaping illness outbreak

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - New national survey evidence on electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) risk beliefs indicates that people substantially overestimate the health risks posed by...     

Genetic Risk Factors and Offsetting Behavior: The Case of Skin Cancer

This paper analyzes the extent of offsetting behavior using survey data on risk beliefs about skin cancer and precautionary actions that people can take to avoid this disease. The perspective taken is that, at conception, people are "installed" with differing genetic characteristics, such as skin type and complexion, which affect the likelihood of contracting skin cancer. The main issue addressed deals with how people's risk beliefs respond to the "safety features" reflected in their own genetic characteristics. Empirical results presented suggest that precautions against solar radiation exposure are chosen so as to partially offset genetic skin cancer protection.     

‘A drop in the bucket‘: Collective efficacy perceptions and environmental behaviour

Environmental degradation is a complex problem, many aspects of which may not be solved unless collective effort is undertaken. Collective Efficacy theory provides a useful framework to investigate how people view their ability and the effectiveness of their actions to solve environmental problems, which has been largely overlooked until now. Six focus groups were conducted to explore efficacy beliefs expressed by environmental Activists and Non‐Activists in Perth, Western Australia, relating to waste management. All participants (n=38) expressed pessimistic views about the abilities of others to perform pro‐environmental behaviours. However, Activists were positive that a collective effort would be effective (‘many drops will fill up the bucket’) while Non‐Activists felt strongly that the problem would still exist even if everyone performed waste‐minimising behaviours (‘it's just a drop in the bucket’). Behaviour change interventions might be more effective if they focus on convincing people that collective effort will be effective in solving environmental problems.     

Welfare Workers' Cultural Models of Domestic Violence

ABSTRACT

Despite progress in policies and services for domestic violence, service use remains lower than the need suggests. This study, an analysis from a larger project on social service providers, examines welfare workers' shared beliefs about domestic violence. Using a mixed method design utilizing pile sorts (n = 38; 11 child welfare and 29 financial assistance), a survey (n = 57; 24 child welfare and 33 financial assistance), and in-depth interviews (n = 3; two child welfare and one financial assistance)—workers organized their ideas about factors that contribute to domestic violence, rated the factors along key dimensions of meaning (importance, controllability, characteristics of victims or perpetrators, and cause or effect), and shared experiences of their work with domestic violence cases. Financial assistance and child welfare workers organized their beliefs similarly demonstrating consensus on the importance of the factors, and shared beliefs about the factors that were causes and effects of domestic violence. In interviews, child welfare workers emphasized their focus on systems and collaboration. Despite areas of agreement, child welfare and financial assistance workers did not demonstrate consensus on ideas about domestic violence overall. The findings have implications for practice, specifically for improving responses to domestic violence and increasing the use of domestic violence services.     

Similarity between Early and Middle Adolescent Close Friends’ Beliefs about Personal Jurisdiction

Similarity in close friends’ beliefs about personal jurisdiction was examined using questionnaires and interviews with 162 early (M_age = 11.82) and middle (M_age = 15.68) adolescents who were matched with reciprocally nominated close friends. Using the framework of social domain theory, beliefs about personal jurisdiction were assessed for personal, social conventional, prudential, and multifaceted issues. As hypothesized, close friends were more similar than non‐friends in their ratings of legitimate parental authority and the degree of harm and consequences to others for prudential and multifaceted issues. Also as expected, friends were similar in their justifications for the legitimacy of parental authority over multifaceted issues. Similarity was moderated by age, direct discussion, and friendship duration; effects varied according to the domain of the issue. Results were discussed in terms of peers’ influence on adolescents’ push for increased autonomy.     

Beliefs about overconfidence

This experiment elicits beliefs about other people’s overconfidence and abilities. We find that most people believe that others are unbiased, and only few think that others are overconfident. There is a remarkable heterogeneity between these groups. Those people who think others are underconfident or unbiased are overconfident themselves. Those who think others are overconfident are underconfident themselves. Despite this heterogeneity, people overestimate on average the abilities of others as they do their own ability. One driving force behind this result is the refusal to process information about oneself: not only does this lead to overestimation of one’s own ability, but by means of social projection also to overestimation of others’ abilities.     

Preference and belief: Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty

We investigate the relation between judgments of probability and preferences between bets. A series of experiments provides support for the competence hypothesis that people prefer betting on their own judgment over an equiprobable chance event when they consider themselves knowledgeable, but not otherwise. They even pay a significant premium to bet on their judgments. These data connot be explained by aversion to ambiguity, because judgmental probabilities are more ambiguous than chance events. We interpret the results in terms of the attribution of credit and blame. The possibility of inferring beliefs from preferences is questioned.¹     

Globalizing Indigenous Psychology: An East Asian Form of Hierarchical Relationalism with Worldwide Implications

Globalization has changed almost every facet of life for people around the world, and today the flow of influence is no longer uni‐directional. It is argued that East Asian (and especially Chinese) societies are anchored in an indigenous form of hierarchical relationalism where social structure is produced by relational obligations of an ethical and normative nature that have slowed its traditional culture “melting into air” as prophesied by Marx. The successfully modernization of East Asia has involved hybridization, compartmentalization, and sequencing of traditional psychological features of Confucianist societies such as delay of gratification and respect for education, paternalistic leadership, filial piety, and beliefs in harmony or benevolence. Features of hierarchical relationalism are adaptable to creating niches for East Asian societies that thrive under globalization as characterized by the paradoxical coupling of economic inequality in fact with discourses of equality in principle. Moral, ethical demands for enlightened leadership constrain East Asian elites to at least attempt to protect subordinates and protect societal (rather than merely individual or familial) well‐being. A fundamental contribution of East Asia to global society may be in the articulation of how to ameliorate economic inequality using Confucian principles of hierarchical relationalism.     

Individuals' Estimates of the Risks of Death: Part II—New Evidence

Using new survey data, we test the hypothesis that individuals' perceptions of health and safety risks are unbiased. While we find that respondents' estimates of those risks are sensitive to the information they are given to anchor their responses, we find no evidence to support the widely held view that people tend to underestimate the frequency of relatively common risks. The slight tendency for respondents to overestimate the frequency of extremely unlikely events can plausibly be interpreted as truncation bias. Overall, the accuracy of our subjects' estimates varies in a manner that is fully consistent with simple conjectures about the health and safety information that is of greatest relevance to them in the conduct of their lives. The marked difference between the results of our survey and those of previous studies appears to be attributable to the practical implications of costly information and the common failure of investigators to account for the fact that rational individuals will choose to acquire less than full information about many uncertain events.     

The Fallacy of Misplaced Intentionality in Social Representation Research

This paper argues that social representations cannot be used as independent variables in causal explanations of social behaviour. It is shown that the structure of investigations often follows a causally explanatory design despite explicit statements to the contrary by the researchers. This fact is analyzed with three investigations. It is argued that verbal data used to assess the contents of a representation as independent variable are logically equivalent to data obtained from the "dependent" overt behaviour. Therefore these two kinds of data must be seen as two illustrations of the same representational contents. The researchers'preference for using verbal data to assess the independent variable and the tendency to introduce a causal relationship between representation and behaviour is shown to result from misplacing folk-beliefs. Folk-beliefs about intentional causality, it is shown, pertain to the same level as other beliefs about the world on the part of the subjects. Hence they are part of the folk-representation itself and must be treated as such; their use in scientific accounts of the belief-action relationship is not implied by data on rational belief systems. It is suggested to conceptualize social representations as integral units of beliefs and action which may be used to explain causally subsequent contingent social events. The function of folk-beliefs in intentional causality for the self-concept of rational people and for social accountability is discussed.     

Sociotropes, Systematic Bias, and Political Failure: Reflections on the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy

Objectives . Economic models of politics typically make two assumptions about voters: first, their motives are egocentric, not sociotropic; second, their beliefs are rational, not subject to systematic bias. Political scientists have presented strong evidence against the first assumption (Mansbridge, 1990), but have become increasingly willing to accept the second (Page and Shapiro, 1992; Marcus and Hanson, 1993). This article tests these two assumptions, then explores the tests' broader implications. Methods . I use the Survey of Americans and Economists on the Economy to test for egocentricity of motivation and rationality of belief. Results . Both standard assumptions fail for the case where the economic approach would seemingly be most relevant: economic beliefs. Conclusions . This is not necessarily cause for greater optimism about the efficiency of democracy: sociotropic voters with biased economic beliefs are more likely to produce severe political failures than are selfish voters with rational expectations.     

拼爹重要,还是拼搏重要？当下中国公众对绩效分配原则的感知

在现代社会,个人根据其能力、素质和专业技能等资质获得职业和社会地位的绩效主义原则已经被广泛认为是符合经济公平正义的主要分配原则。然而,鲜有研究关注公众是如何看待绩效分配原则的。本文利用中国家庭追踪调查2010年基线调查数据（CFPS2010）,对公众关于绩效分配原则的认同状况进行了初步探讨。研究发现：第一,社会经济地位越高的成员越认同绩效分配原则;第二,成长于改革开放时期的年轻人更加认同绩效分配原则;第三,地区收入不平等状况在一定程度上降低了社会地位较低的群体对绩效分配原则的认同感。本文的发现在一定程度上表明,当前中国公众之所以对收入不平等表现出较为宽容的态度,主要是因为大部分公众相信教育和个人努力是取得社会成就的重要影响因素,但应注意,公众对绩效分配原则的认同感与其客观社会经济地位存在密切关系。     

Maternal disclosure and adolescent prosocial behavior: The mediating roles of adolescent disclosure and coping

In this study, we considered the impact of mothers' willingness to disclose about distressing events and rule transgressions on their adolescent children's willingness to disclose about similar events, as well as adolescents' ability to cope and to show concern for others. Mothers and their 12‐ to 14‐year‐old children (N = 125) were asked to say how likely they would be to talk about moderately distressing concerns as well as minor rule transgressions. Adolescent positive coping skills were also assessed. Teachers (N = 92) rated the adolescents' prosocial behaviors in the classroom. Adolescents' disclosure about distressing events and positive coping mediated the relation between maternal disclosure about distressing events and adolescent prosocial behavior. Further, maternal disclosure alone about both distressing events and rule transgressions was related to adolescent prosocial behavior through positive coping. These results suggest that mothers' willingness to talk about their own negative experiences can help children cope better and, ultimately, to show greater empathy and concern for others.     

Deservingness in the eye of the beholder: A vignette study on the moderating role of cultural profiles in supporting activation policies

People support welfare policy if its beneficiaries are perceived as deserving of support. This study found that individuals’ cultural worldviews play a role in assessing the deservingness of welfare recipients. We investigated whether four different cultural profiles find some beneficiaries to be more deserving than others and how this relates to support for social rights (welfare benefit, retraining, job coach) and obligations (mandatory volunteering). A Dutch vignette experiment showed that reasons for supporting social rights differ between people with different cultural profiles: equality advocates grant support if beneficiaries are needy, while the centre and trusting groups do so when beneficiaries reciprocate. We found that irrespective of deservingness, people with equality‐advocating and trusting profiles tend to be more supportive of social rights, whereas socially discontented citizens tend to emphasise the importance of obligations. In general, obliging beneficiaries to do volunteer work was deemed appropriate by almost all respondents in the study, whereas their cultural values determined the ways in which they considered social rights to have been earned.