Nonparametric estimation of conditional expectation

Denote the integer lattice points in the N  -dimensional Euclidean space by Z^N${\mathbb{Z}}^N$ and assume that (_Xi,_Yi)$(X_{\mathbf{i}},Y_{\mathbf{i}})$, i∈Z^N$\mathbf{i}\in {\mathbb{Z}}^N$ is a mixing random field. Estimators of the conditional expectation r(x)=E[_Yi|_Xi=x]$r(\mathbf{x})=\mathrm{E}[Y_{\mathbf{i}}|X_{\mathbf{i}}=\mathbf{x}]$ by nearest neighbor methods are established and investigated. The main analytical result of this study is that, under general mixing assumptions, the estimators considered are asymptotically normal. Many difficulties arise since points in higher dimensional space N?2$N?2$ cannot be linearly ordered. Our result applies to many situations where parametric methods cannot be adopted with confidence.     

Rényi statistics for testing hypotheses in mixed linear regression models

Rényi divergences are used to propose some statistics for testing general hypotheses in mixed linear regression models. The asymptotic distribution of these tests statistics, of the Kullback–Leibler and of the likelihood ratio statistics are provided, assuming that the sample size and the number of levels of the random factors tend to infinity. A simulation study is carried out to analyze and compare the behavior of the proposed tests when the sample size and number of levels are small.     

Canonical correlation analysis for the vector AR(1) model with ARCH innovations

This paper extends the results of canonical correlation analysis of Anderson [2002. Canonical correlation analysis and reduced-rank regression in autoregressive models. Ann. Statist. 30, 1134–1154] to a vector AR(1) process with a vector ARCH(1) innovations. We obtain the limiting distributions of the sample matrices, the canonical correlations and the canonical vectors of the process. The extension is important because many time series in economics and finance exhibit conditional heteroscedasticity. We also use simulation to demonstrate the effects of ARCH innovations on the canonical correlation analysis in finite sample. Both the limiting distributions and simulation results show that overlooking the ARCH effects in canonical correlation analysis can easily lead to erroneous inference.     

General linear processes in Hilbert spaces and prediction

We discuss a general definition of linear processes in Hilbert spaces that takes into account the outstanding role played by this model in prediction theory.     

Nonparametric spectrum estimation for spatial data

Smoothed nonparametric kernel spectral density estimates are considered for stationary data observed on a d-dimensional lattice. The implications for edge effect bias of the choice of kernel and bandwidth are considered. Under some circumstances the bias can be dominated by the edge effect. We show that this problem can be mitigated by tapering. Some extensions and related issues are discussed.     

Factor stochastic volatility with time varying loadings and Markov switching regimes

We generalize the factor stochastic volatility (FSV) model of Pitt and Shephard [1999. Time varying covariances: a factor stochastic volatility approach (with discussion). In: Bernardo, J.M., Berger, J.O., Dawid, A.P., Smith, A.F.M. (Eds.), Bayesian Statistics, vol. 6, Oxford University Press, London, pp. 547–570.] and Aguilar and West [2000. Bayesian dynamic factor models and variance matrix discounting for portfolio allocation. J. Business Econom. Statist. 18, 338–357.] in two important directions. First, we make the FSV model more flexible and able to capture more general time-varying variance–covariance structures by letting the matrix of factor loadings to be time dependent. Secondly, we entertain FSV models with jumps in the common factors volatilities through So, Lam and Li's [1998. A stochastic volatility model with Markov switching. J. Business Econom. Statist. 16, 244–253.] Markov switching stochastic volatility model. Novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms are derived for both classes of models. We apply our methodology to two illustrative situations: daily exchange rate returns [Aguilar, O., West, M., 2000. Bayesian dynamic factor models and variance matrix discounting for portfolio allocation. J. Business Econom. Statist. 18, 338–357.] and Latin American stock returns [Lopes, H.F., Migon, H.S., 2002. Comovements and contagion in emergent markets: stock indexes volatilities. In: Gatsonis, C., Kass, R.E., Carriquiry, A.L., Gelman, A., Verdinelli, I. Pauler, D., Higdon, D. (Eds.), Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics, vol. 6, pp. 287–302].     

Robust Lagrange multiplier test for detecting ARCH/GARCH effect using permutation and bootstrap

The Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test is one of the principal tools to detect ARCH and GARCH effects in financial data analysis. However, when the underlying data are non‐normal, which is often the case in practice, the asymptotic LM test, based on the χ²‐approximation of critical values, is known to perform poorly, particularly for small and moderate sample sizes. In this paper we propose to employ two re‐sampling techniques to find critical values of the LM test, namely permutation and bootstrap. We derive the properties of exactness and asymptotically correctness for the permutation and bootstrap LM tests, respectively. Our numerical studies indicate that the proposed re‐sampled algorithms significantly improve size and power of the LM test in both skewed and heavy‐tailed processes. We also illustrate our new approaches with an application to the analysis of the Euro/USD currency exchange rates and the German stock index. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 405–426; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada     

Some aspects of decision making under uncertainty

Two discrete-time insurance models are studied in the framework of cost approach. The models being non-deterministic one deals with decision making under uncertainty. Three different situations are investigated: (1) underlying processes are stochastic however their probability distributions are given; (2) information concerning the distribution laws is incomplete; (3) nothing is known about the processes under consideration. Mathematical methods useful for establishing the (asymptotically) optimal control are demonstrated in each case. Algorithms for calculation of critical levels are proposed. Numerical results are presented as well.     

Nonparametric functionals of spectral distributions and their applications to time series analysis

There is a close analogy between empirical distributions of i.i.d. random variables and normalized spectral distributions of wide-sense stationary processes. Herein we make use of this analogy to develop nonparametric comparisons of two spectral distributions and nonparametric tests of stationarity versus change-point alternatives via spectral analysis of a time series.     

Long run variance estimation and robust regression testing using sharp origin kernels with no truncation

A new family of kernels is suggested for use in long run variance (LRV) estimation and robust regression testing. The kernels are constructed by taking powers of the Bartlett kernel and are intended to be used with no truncation (or bandwidth) parameter. As the power parameter (ρ)$(\rho )$ increases, the kernels become very sharp at the origin and increasingly downweight values away from the origin, thereby achieving effects similar to a bandwidth parameter. Sharp origin kernels can be used in regression testing in much the same way as conventional kernels with no truncation, as suggested in the work of Kiefer and Vogelsang [2002a, Heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust testing using bandwidth equal to sample size. Econometric Theory 18, 1350–1366, 2002b, Heteroskedasticity-autocorrelation robust standard errors using the Bartlett kernel without truncation, Econometrica 70, 2093–2095] Analysis and simulations indicate that sharp origin kernels lead to tests with improved size properties relative to conventional tests and better power properties than other tests using Bartlett and other conventional kernels without truncation.     

Asymptotic expansions of the null distributions of some test statistics for profile analysis in general distributions

This paper discusses asymptotic expansions for the null distributions of some test statistics for profile analysis under non-normality. It is known that the null distributions of these statistics converge to chi-square distribution under normality [Siotani, M., 1956. On the distributions of the Hotelling's T²$T^2$-statistics. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. Tokyo 8, 1–14; Siotani, M., 1971. An asymptotic expansion of the non-null distributions of Hotelling's generalized T²$T^2$-statistic. Ann. Math. Statist. 42, 560–571]. We extend this result by obtaining asymptotic expansions under general distributions. Moreover, the effect of non-normality is also considered. In order to obtain all the results, we make use of matrix manipulations such as direct products and symmetric tensor, rather than usual elementwise tensor notation.     

Testing of a sub-hypothesis in linear regression models with long memory errors and deterministic design

This paper considers the problem of testing a sub-hypothesis in homoscedastic linear regression models where errors form long memory moving average processes and designs are non-random. Unlike in the random design case, asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio type test based on the Whittle quadratic form is shown to be non-standard and non-chi-square. Moreover, the rate of consistency of the minimum Whittle dispersion estimator of the slope parameter vector is shown to be n^-(1-α)/2$n^{-(1-\alpha )/2}$, different from the rate n^-1/2$n^{-1/2}$ obtained in the random design case, where α$\alpha$ is the rate at which the error spectral density explodes at the origin. The proposed test is shown to be consistent against fixed alternatives and has non-trivial asymptotic power against local alternatives that converge to null hypothesis at the rate n^-(1-α)/2$n^{-(1-\alpha )/2}$.     

On characterizations of the logistic distribution

We modify and extend George and Mudholkar's [1981. A characterization of the logistic distribution by a sample median. Ann. Inst. Statist. Math. 33, 125–129] characterization result about the logistic distribution, which is in terms of the sample median and Laplace distribution. Moreover, we give some new characterization results in terms of the smallest order statistics and the exponential distribution.     

On robust forecasting in dynamic vector time series models

In this article, robust estimation and prediction in multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX) are considered. The conditional least squares (CLS) estimators are known to be non-robust when outliers occur. To obtain robust estimators, the method introduced in Duchesne [2005. Robust and powerful serial correlation tests with new robust estimates in ARX models. J. Time Ser. Anal. 26, 49–81] and Bou Hamad and Duchesne [2005. On robust diagnostics at individual lags using RA-ARX estimators. In: Duchesne, P., Rémillard, B. (Eds.), Statistical Modeling and Analysis for Complex Data Problems. Springer, New York] is generalized for VARX models. The asymptotic distribution of the new estimators is studied and from this is obtained in particular the asymptotic covariance matrix of the robust estimators. Classical conditional prediction intervals normally rely on estimators such as the usual non-robust CLS estimators. In the presence of outliers, such as additive outliers, these classical predictions can be severely biased. More generally, the occurrence of outliers may invalidate the usual conditional prediction intervals. Consequently, the new robust methodology is used to develop robust conditional prediction intervals which take into account parameter estimation uncertainty. In a simulation study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the robust prediction intervals under several scenarios for the occurrence of the outliers, and the new intervals are compared to non-robust intervals based on classical CLS estimators.     

Bayesian inference for dynamic social network data

We consider a continuous-time model for the evolution of social networks. A social network is here conceived as a (di-) graph on a set of vertices, representing actors, and the changes of interest are creation and disappearance over time of (arcs) edges in the graph. Hence we model a collection of random edge indicators that are not, in general, independent. We explicitly model the interdependencies between edge indicators that arise from interaction between social entities. A Markov chain is defined in terms of an embedded chain with holding times and transition probabilities. Data are observed at fixed points in time and hence we are not able to observe the embedded chain directly. Introducing a prior distribution for the parameters we may implement an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posterior distribution of the parameters by simulating the evolution of the embedded process between observations.