Robust designs for one-point extrapolation

We consider the construction of designs for the extrapolation of a regression response to one point outside of the design space. The response function is an only approximately known function of a specified linear function. As well, we allow for variance heterogeneity. We find minimax designs and corresponding optimal regression weights in the context of the following problems: (P1) for nonlinear least squares estimation with homoscedasticity, determine a design to minimize the maximum value of the mean squared extrapolation error (MSEE), with the maximum being evaluated over the possible departures from the response function; (P2) for nonlinear least squares estimation with heteroscedasticity, determine a design to minimize the maximum value of MSEE, with the maximum being evaluated over both types of departures; (P3) for nonlinear weighted least squares estimation, determine both weights and a design to minimize the maximum MSEE; (P4) choose weights and design points to minimize the maximum MSEE, subject to a side condition of unbiasedness. Solutions to (P1)–(P4) are given in complete generality. Numerical comparisons indicate that our designs and weights perform well in combining robustness and efficiency. Applications to accelerated life testing are highlighted.     

Robust prediction and extrapolation designs for censored data

In this paper we present the construction of robust designs for a possibly misspecified generalized linear regression model when the data are censored. The minimax designs and unbiased designs are found for maximum likelihood estimation in the context of both prediction and extrapolation problems. This paper extends preceding work of robust designs for complete data by incorporating censoring and maximum likelihood estimation. It also broadens former work of robust designs for censored data from others by considering both nonlinearity and much more arbitrary uncertainty in the fitted regression response and by dropping all restrictions on the structure of the regressors. Solutions are derived by a nonsmooth optimization technique analytically and given in full generality. A typical example in accelerated life testing is also demonstrated. We also investigate implementation schemes which are utilized to approximate a robust design having a density. Some exact designs are obtained using an optimal implementation scheme.     

Robust estimators and designs for field experiments

We consider the construction of designs for test-control field experiments, with particular attention being paid to the effects of spatial correlation between adjoining plots. In contrast to previous approaches, in which very specific correlation structures were modelled, we explicitly allow a degree of uncertainty on the part of the experimenter. While fitting a particular correlation structure—and variance structure and regression response—the experimenter is thought to be seeking protection against other possible structures in full neighbourhoods of these particular choices. Robustness, in a minimax sense, is obtained through a modification of the kriging estimation procedure, and through the assignment of treatments to field plots.     

Robust prediction and extrapolation designs for misspecified generalized linear regression models

We study minimax robust designs for response prediction and extrapolation in biased linear regression models. We extend previous work of others by considering a nonlinear fitted regression response, by taking a rather general extrapolation space and, most significantly, by dropping all restrictions on the structure of the regressors. Several examples are discussed.     

Robust designs for misspecified logistic models

We develop criteria that generate robust designs and use such criteria for the construction of designs that insure against possible misspecifications in logistic regression models. The design criteria we propose are different from the classical in that we do not focus on sampling error alone. Instead we use design criteria that account as well for error due to bias engendered by the model misspecification. Our robust designs optimize the average of a function of the sampling error and bias error over a specified misspecification neighbourhood. Examples of robust designs for logistic models are presented, including a case study implementing the methodologies using beetle mortality data.     

Large sample interval mapping method for genetic trait loci in finite regression mixture models

This article investigates the large sample interval mapping method for genetic trait loci (GTL) in a finite non-linear regression mixture model. The general model includes most commonly used kernel functions, such as exponential family mixture, logistic regression mixture and generalized linear mixture models, as special cases. The populations derived from either the backcross or intercross design are considered. In particular, unlike all existing results in the literature in the finite mixture models, the large sample results presented in this paper do not require the boundness condition on the parametric space. Therefore, the large sample theory presented in this article possesses general applicability to the interval mapping method of GTL in genetic research. The limiting null distribution of the likelihood ratio test statistics can be utilized easily to determine the threshold values or p-values required in the interval mapping. The limiting distribution is proved to be free of the parameter values of null model and free of the choice of a kernel function. Extension to the multiple marker interval GTL detection is also discussed. Simulation study results show favorable performance of the asymptotic procedure when sample sizes are moderate.     

Optimum covariate designs in partially balanced incomplete block (PBIB) design set-ups

The use of covariates in block designs is necessary when the covariates cannot be controlled like the blocking factor in the experiment. In this paper, we consider the situation where there is some flexibility for selection in the values of the covariates. The choice of values of the covariates for a given block design attaining minimum variance for estimation of each of the parameters has attracted attention in recent times. Optimum covariate designs in simple set-ups such as completely randomised design (CRD), randomised block design (RBD) and some series of balanced incomplete block design (BIBD) have already been considered. In this paper, optimum covariate designs have been considered for the more complex set-ups of different partially balanced incomplete block (PBIB) designs, which are popular among practitioners. The optimum covariate designs depend much on the methods of construction of the basic PBIB designs. Different combinatorial arrangements and tools such as orthogonal arrays, Hadamard matrices and different kinds of products of matrices viz. Khatri–Rao product, Kronecker product have been conveniently used to construct optimum covariate designs with as many covariates as possible.     

Bias bound for the minimax estimator

The bias bound function of an estimator is an important quantity in order to perform globally robust inference. We show how to evaluate the exact bias bound for the minimax estimator of the location parameter for a wide class of unimodal symmetric location and scale family. We show, by an example, how to obtain an upper bound of the bias bound for a unimodal asymmetric location and scale family. We provide the exact bias bound of the minimum distance/disparity estimators under a contamination neighborhood generated from the same distance.     

Optimal designs in random coefficient cubic regression models

In this article we investigate the problem of ascertaining A- and D-optimal designs in a cubic regression model with random coefficients. Our interest lies in estimation of all the parameters or in only those except the intercept term. Assuming the variance ratios to be known, we tabulate D-optimal designs for various combinations of the variance ratios. A-optimality does not pose any new problem in the random coefficients situation.     

Optimal mixed-level k-circulant supersaturated designs

Supersaturated designs (SSDs) offer a potentially useful way to investigate many factors with only few experiments in the preliminary stages of experimentation. This paper explores how to construct E(_fNOD)$E(f_{\mathrm{NOD}})$-optimal mixed-level SSDs using k-cyclic generators. The necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of mixed-level k-circulant SSDs with the equal occurrence property are provided. Properties of the mixed-level k  -circulant SSDs are investigated, in particular, the sufficient condition under which the generator vector produces an E(_fNOD)$E(f_{\mathrm{NOD}})$-optimal SSD is obtained. Moreover, many new E(_fNOD)$E(f_{\mathrm{NOD}})$-optimal mixed-level SSDs are constructed and listed. The method here generalizes the one proposed by Liu and Dean [2004. k$k$-circulant supersaturated designs. Technometrics 46, 32–43] for two-level SSDs and the one due to Georgiou and Koukouvinos [2006. Multi-level k-circulant supersaturated designs. Metrika 64, 209–220] for the multi-level case.     

Bayesian D-optimal designs for exponential regression models

We consider the Bayesian D-optimal design problem for exponential growth models with one, two or three parameters. For the one-parameter model conditions on the shape of the density of the prior distribution and on the range of its support are given guaranteeing that a one-point design is also Bayesian D-optimal within the class of all designs. In the case of two parameters the best two-point designs are determined and for special prior distributions it is proved that these designs are Bayesian D-optimal. Finally, the exponential growth model with three parameters is investigated. The best three-point designs are characterized by a nonlinear equation. The global optimality of these designs cannot be proved analytically and it is demonstrated that these designs are also Bayesian D-optimal within the class of all designs if gamma-distributions are used as prior distributions.     

Multivariate orthogonal series estimates for random design regression

In this paper a new multivariate regression estimate is introduced. It is based on ideas derived in the context of wavelet estimates and is constructed by hard thresholding of estimates of coefficients of a series expansion of the regression function. Multivariate functions constructed analogously to the classical Haar wavelets are used for the series expansion. These functions are orthogonal in _L2(_μn)$L_2({\mu }_n)$, where _μn${\mu }_n$ denotes the empirical design measure. The construction can be considered as designing adapted Haar wavelets.     

Collapsibility of regression coefficients and its extensions

Collapsibility with respect to a measure of association implies that the measure of association can be obtained from the marginal model. We first discuss model collapsibility and collapsibility with respect to regression coefficients for linear regression models. For parallel regression models, we give simple and different proofs of some of the known results and obtain also certain new results. For random coefficient regression models, we define (average) A$A$-collapsibility and obtain conditions under which it holds. We consider Poisson regression and logistic regression models also, and derive conditions for collapsibility and A$A$-collapsibility, respectively. These results generalize some of the results available in the literature. Some suitable examples are also discussed.     

Trimmed and Winsorized means based on a scaled deviation

Trimmed (and Winsorized) means based on a scaled deviation are introduced and studied. The influence functions of the estimators are derived and their limiting distributions are established via asymptotic representations. As a main focus of the paper, the performance of the estimators with respect to various robustness and efficiency criteria is evaluated and compared with leading competitors including the ordinary Tukey trimmed (and Winsorized) means. Unlike the Tukey trimming which always trims a fixed fraction of sample points at each end of data, the trimming scheme here only trims points at one or both ends that have a scaled deviation beyond some threshold. The resulting trimmed (and Winsorized) means are much more robust than their predecessors. Indeed they can share the best breakdown point robustness of the sample median for any common trimming thresholds. Furthermore, for appropriate trimming thresholds they are highly efficient at light-tailed symmetric models and more efficient than their predecessors at heavy-tailed or contaminated symmetric models. Detailed comparisons with leading competitors on various robustness and efficiency aspects reveal that the scaled deviation trimmed (Winsorized) means behave very well overall and consequently represent very favorable alternatives to the ordinary trimmed (Winsorized) means.     

On the enumeration of some D-optimal designs

Two matrices with elements taken from the set {-1,1}$\{-1,1\}$ are Hadamard equivalent if one can be converted into the other by a sequence of permutations of rows and columns, and negations of rows and columns. In this paper we summarize what is known about the number of equivalence classes of matrices having maximal determinant. We establish that there are 7 equivalence classes for matrices of order 21 and that there are at least 9884 equivalence classes for matrices of order 26. The latter result is obtained primarily using a switching technique for producing new designs from old.     

Characterization of minimax linear estimators in linear regression

Two characterization theorems of the minimax linear estimator (Mile) are proven for the case, where the regression parameter varies only in an arbitrary ellipsoid. Furthermore, the existence, uniqueness and admissibility of Mile are shown. The explicit determination of Mile is carried out for a special case.     

Considerations on group-wise identical designs for linear mixed models

We consider a general class of mixed models, where the individual parameter vector is composed of a linear function of the population parameter vector plus an individual random effects vector. The linear function can vary for the different individuals. We show that the search for optimal designs for the estimation of the population parameter vector can be restricted to the class of group-wise identical designs, i.e., for each of the groups defined by the different linear functions only one individual elementary design has to be optimized. A way to apply the result to non-linear mixed models is described.