A PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM

We present a pavement management expert system developed by the University of Wisconsin-Madison and implemented within a geographical information system for the Wisconsin Department of Transportation. The system uses pavement data regularly collected on the state's 12,000 miles of highway to assist engineers, planners, and budget analysts' management decisions about pavements to be included in 6-year improvement and 3-year maintenance programs. The system has a three-layer architecture. The lowest level suggests treatments for each of a large number of small segments of highway. The middle layer aggregates segments, suggests alternative treatments, and estimates the cost of each. The top layer prioritizes the projects and incorporates them into intermediate-range plans. The geographical information system environment enables integration of existing databases within the system using a topologically structured geographic database and specialized software.     

A Case Study Examining the Effectiveness and Cost of Incentive Programs to Reduce Staff Absenteeism in a Preschool

Most employers provide some number of paid sick leave days for their employees. If employees use their sick leave days by calling in sick on days they are feeling well, productivity (in terms of either goods or services) may be reduced. In this study, conducted at a preschool, productivity was defined as the number of children enrolled each month. In baseline, the 13 full-time employees were absent 4% of the time and 75 children were enrolled. The effectiveness and cost of two voluntary incentive programs designed to reduce employee absenteeism were examined for 4-½ years in a single case experimental design. The absenteeism of employees who volunteered to participate in the incentive program was .7% and overall absenteeism during the incentive programs was 2-½% while costs remained constant. Twenty-six percent more children were served. Employees preferred monetary to non-monetary incentives.     

Client acceptance decisions of Dutch auditing partners

A vignette study of 567 client acceptance decisions by 67 Dutch auditors showed that the prospect of acquiring additional assignments significantly increases the likelihood that auditing partners accept an audit assignment from a new client, thereby violating a rule of the auditing profession. Audit firm strategy was found to moderate the effect of the acquisition of additional assignments: partners working in audit firms emphasizing a professional orientation are less likely to accept such risky assignments, whereas a commercial orientation of audit firms was found to exacerbate the effect of acquiring additional services. Contrary to expectations, punishment severity for professional mistakes increases the likelihood of client acceptance.

Planning Replacement of Natural Gas Distribution Systems Under Constraints on Acceptable Risk from Explosions

Natural gas distribution systems in the United States were developed primarily in the first half of this century, utilizing materials such as cast iron and then steel. Over time, cast iron and steel pipe sections became weak from corrosion and are subject to failure which in turn can lead to explosions and possible injury and loss of life. Gas utilities maintain system integrity through repair-replacement programs where pipe sections are prioritized for replacement in any given year through cost-benefit analysis; however, the total annual amount to be budgeted for replacement is left to engineering judgment. This approach has left some utilities vulnerable to criticism that their current replacement rate on cast iron pipe is not great enough and that public safety is being compromised. This paper addresses the problem situation by formulating a linear programming replacement decision model which augments cost-benefit analysis with explicit constraints on acceptable risk to human life from fire/explosion. The model is illustrated for a hypothetical utility.     

Using Economic Freedom Indexes as Policy Indicators: An Intercontinental Example

We use time-series cross-section analysis to provide empirical validation for the existence of a specific American ethos and a specific European ethos with respect to economic policy. In our innovation, economic policy is proxied by “economic freedom” from the Fraser Institute database and constitutional “political institutions” are proxied by variables from the Database of Political Institutions (from the World Bank). Our results suggest that, once we control for political and institutional differences, the United States and Europe still pursue different economic policies.

The use of discrete computer simulation modeling to estimate return on leadership development investment

Organizational leaders seek monetary returns on their investments (ROI). Thus, making decisions to invest in human capital, such as in leadership development interventions, are often difficult due to the lack of research demonstrating monetary returns on leadership development investment (RODI). This study introduces an innovative approach to estimating leadership development investments and expands on previous research conducted by Avolio, Avey, and Quisenberry (2010), which was the first attempt to estimate leadership development RODI using utility analysis. Further, it is a unique study in that it uses computer simulation modeling to generate random distributions of each utility analysis variable to estimate RODI. Computer simulation modeling enables organizations to better estimate RODI for both current and future leadership development programs. Comparisons of RODI methods are conducted. Results demonstrate that potential gains from effective leadership development are greater than previously estimated but potential losses from poorly executed leadership development are also larger than previously estimated.     

基于Vasicek和CIR模型中的中国货币市场利率行为实证分析

本文引进了一种全新的计量经济学方法———广义矩估计法,并通过MATLAB程序,使用中国货币市场的数据对Vasicek和CIR模型进行了参数估计,与以前的估计方法相比,得出的结果都相当显著,从而能更好的了解中国货币市场利率行为的特点。     

Human resource development at the University of Minnesota-Twin Cities: origins and international growth

This article provides an overview of the history and current status of graduate and undergraduate Human Resource Development (HRD) programs at the University of Minnesota. The HRD program at the UMN is situated within the Department of Organizational Leadership, Policy, and Development of the College of Education and Human Development. The program offers undergraduate, master’s, and PhD degrees, and is characterized by healthy enrollment numbers and a strong alumni base, both nationally and internationally. The UMN HRD program has a long history of significant contributions to the development of HRD with research and strong education programs which continue to influence the academic field and professional field of practice in the U.S. and internationally.     

Application of the knapsack model for budgeting

The budget problem of selecting projects (or activities) with known values (or payoffs) and associated costs, subject to a prescribed maximum budget, is akin to the knapsack problem, which is well documented in the literature. The optimal solution to maximise the total value of selected projects for a given budget constraint can readily be obtained. In practice, budgets are often somewhat flexible, or subject to possible changes, so that an optimal solution for a given budget value may not remain optimal when the budget is modified. It is, therefore, sensible in many situations to consider a budget range, instead of a single budget value. In addition to their original objective of maximising the total value of selected projects, decision makers are often concerned to get ‘value for money’, indicated by the ratio of payoff to cost. This paper examines how these questions can be tackled through the introduction of a stability index, to guide project selection within a defined budget range, and the use of a portfolio diagram, to help in the ranking of projects with respect to the stated twin objectives.     

Yes,The Precautionary Principle Is Incoherent

This article is a reply to Thomas Boyer‐Kassem's discussion of my criticism of the precautionary principle published in this journal about a decade ago. Boyer‐Kassem does not question the logical validity of the theorem proved in my original article, but he brings up important questions about its scope. He also challenges the plausibility of some of the assumptions on which it is based. In this comment, I argue that each objection can be adequately dealt with. As a decision rule, the precautionary principle is (still) incoherent.     

Laurie Nordic Ski Center

The proprietor of a ski lodge with Nordic ski trails faces increased competition from other private lodges that are subsidized by government agencies and from a non profit ski club, which is also subsidized by use of government owned land for which the ski club pays no rent. The proprietor must decide what she can do to meet this subsidized competition or whether she should sell her business before profitability disappears.     

A Medicare reform primer

The use of the federal budget process to change Medicare policy is of importance to physician executives because of its impact on the health care delivery system. In particular, changes in Medicare policy, driven by the need to shore up the solvency of a politically popular program, will create changes for other public and private purchasers of health care. Reforming Medicare through the budget process is not new. Physician fees have been frozen, reduced, and selectively increased as a result. In 1983, the hospital reimbursement methodology was changed to prospective payment through this process. The budget process will continue to be used to make policy changes because of the large amount that Medicare occupies of the federal budget. Given the profound impact changes in Medicare can have in other health care sectors, the lack of consensus for a long-term solution would mean those in the health care arena will have to be prepared for significant annual policy changes through the reconciliation process.     

Analytic approaches to problems of a middle-sized defence department

The application of operational research to the problems of Canadian defence was very similar to that in Great Britain and the United States during World War II and through the 1950s. But because of the rapidly increasing costs of major weapon systems, since the 1960s systems analysis has been very thoroughly applied to the study of the large procurement programs, including far-reaching examination of their economic impact on the nation. Other problems of special interest to Canada which received analytical attention included peacekeeping and military involvement in activities such as maritime surveillance and search and rescue. Analytical studies have been extended into examination of logistics and manpower, and into economic, sociological, and strategic problems of concern to the Canadian defence department, including arms control. This type of research represents a considerable excursion from the original operational research, but is needed in the Canadian Department of National Defence.     

Cost‐Benefit Analysis for Optimization of Risk Protection Under Budget Constraints

Cost‐benefit analysis (CBA) is commonly applied as a tool for deciding on risk protection. With CBA, one can identify risk mitigation strategies that lead to an optimal tradeoff between the costs of the mitigation measures and the achieved risk reduction. In practical applications of CBA, the strategies are typically evaluated through efficiency indicators such as the benefit‐cost ratio (BCR) and the marginal cost (MC) criterion. In many of these applications, the BCR is not consistently defined, which, as we demonstrate in this article, can lead to the identification of suboptimal solutions. This is of particular relevance when the overall budget for risk reduction measures is limited and an optimal allocation of resources among different subsystems is necessary. We show that this problem can be formulated as a hierarchical decision problem, where the general rules and decisions on the available budget are made at a central level (e.g., central government agency, top management), whereas the decisions on the specific measures are made at the subsystem level (e.g., local communities, company division). It is shown that the MC criterion provides optimal solutions in such hierarchical optimization. Since most practical applications only include a discrete set of possible risk protection measures, the MC criterion is extended to this situation. The findings are illustrated through a hypothetical numerical example. This study was prepared as part of our work on the optimal management of natural hazard risks, but its conclusions also apply to other fields of risk management.     

A LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODEL OF RESOURCE ALLOCATION IN A UNIVERSITY*

This paper describes the application of a linear programming model to the process of resource allocation at Illinois State University. The model developed is a general model designed to assist academic administrators in allocating the scarce resources at their disposal. The model, and the assumptions upon which it is based, may be altered to suit the particular decision criteria of any particular academic institution. The linear programming model developed here maximizes an objective function which reflects the total net social profit realized by the university on its outputs to society. This objective function was maximized subject to a myriad of constraints which reflected the limitations of budget, space, and other scarce inputs. Further, the constraints reflect the joint interdependency of many parts of the university and the particular educational delivery system employed by a given department. The outputs of the model include the optimal mixture of academic outputs by the university, the optimal distribution and usage of inputs inside the university, and the shadow price of each input. While the linear programming model developed here is general and may be applied to any university, it was applied to Illinois State University in this paper. In the case of Illinois State University, the model recommended a substantial reduction in emphasis upon teacher education.     

The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle

Most countries have automatic rules in their tax‐and‐transfer systems that are partly intended to stabilize economic fluctuations. This paper measures their effect on the dynamics of the business cycle. We put forward a model that merges the standard incomplete‐markets model of consumption and inequality with the new Keynesian model of nominal rigidities and business cycles, and that includes most of the main potential stabilizers in the U.S. data and the theoretical channels by which they may work. We find that the conventional argument that stabilizing disposable income will stabilize aggregate demand plays a negligible role in the dynamics of the business cycle, whereas tax‐and‐transfer programs that affect inequality and social insurance can have a larger effect on aggregate volatility. However, as currently designed, the set of stabilizers in place in the United States has had little effect on the volatility of aggregate output fluctuations or on their welfare costs despite stabilizing aggregate consumption. The stabilizers have a more important role when monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound, and they affect welfare significantly through the provision of social insurance.     

INSULATION IMPOSSIBLE: MONETARY POLICY AND REGIONAL DEBT SPILLOVERS IN A FEDERATION

This paper studies the effects of monetary policy in the presence of debt spillovers within a monetary union. When capital markets are integrated, the fiscal policy of any member country will generally influence equilibrium wages and interest rates across the whole union. We ask whether there exists a monetary policy which can offset these spillovers. Within a general class of monetary policy rules, there does not exist one that completely insulates agents in one region from fiscal policy in the other. These debt spillovers will affect welfare through two channels: intertemporal efficiency and redistribution.     

Wie gefährlich kann Supervision sein?

Risks for side effects and damage that can occur through supervision are a rarely discussed topic. This article originates in the Department of Psychotherapy and Bio-psychosocial Health of the Danube University Krems and gathers data from various research studies on the subject. Statements from literature analysis, supervision-experts and (damaged) supervisees about structure and process variables are combined in a triangulation of qualitative and quantitative empirical data: personality and competence of the supervisor, contracting and setting of supervision, matching, supervisors interventions and dealing with secrecy as well as conditions of risk for damages and injuries in supervision. In addition, definitions for risk, damage and side effects, as well as implications for quality-management in supervision are outlined.     

基于Vidale-Wolfe模型的多市场广告预算分配决策模型

广告决策问题很长时间以来都是营销经理和学者们关注的热点。随着社会经济发展,越来越多的企业面对多个市场。如何在多个市场、广告总预算固定的状况下,合理分配各个市场广告预算以收到最优广告效果,是一个企业关心的较为重要的问题。经过比较,选择Vidale-Wolfe模型作为广告反应模型,在此基础上建立了多市场广告预算分配决策模型。考虑到一些营销策略对某些市场有特殊销售速率要求,该模型分为无特殊销售速率维持要求的多市场广告预算分配决策模型和有特殊销售速率维持要求的多市场广告预算分配决策模型两类,后者探讨了销售速率变化与达到指定销售速率两种要求下的广告预算最优分配问题,构建了优化模型,提出了模型参数取值与模型求解方法,最后给出了一个算例。     

Value of a Life: What Difference Does It Make?1

A comparison of the costs and benefits of 57 lifesaving programs reveals striking disparities across agencies and programs in cost/life saved and even greater disparities in cost/life-year saved. Within a broad range the monetary value assigned to the benefits of averting a death usually does not alter the policy implications of the analyses. The findings suggest that despite the substantial disagreements and uncertainties in the theory and practice of valuing lives, careful quantitative analysis can be helpful in setting health, safety, and environmental priorities.