What we learned from the Dust Bowl: lessons in science,policy, and adaptation

This article provides a review and synthesis of scholarly knowledge of Depression-era droughts on the North American Great Plains, a time and place known colloquially as the Dust Bowl era or the Dirty Thirties. Recent events, including the 2008 financial crisis, severe droughts in the US corn belt, and the release of a popular documentary film, have spawned a resurgence in public interest in the Dust Bowl. Events of the Dust Bowl era have also proven in recent years to be of considerable interest to scholars researching phenomena related to global environmental change, including atmospheric circulation, drought modeling, land management, institutional behavior, adaptation processes, and human migration. In this review, we draw out common themes in terms of not only what natural and social scientists have learned about the Dust Bowl era itself, but also how insights gained from the study of that period are helping to enhance our understanding of climate–human relations more generally.     

Genetic Bio-Ancestry and Social Construction of Racial Classification in Social Surveys in the Contemporary United States

Self-reported race is generally considered the basis for racial classification in social surveys, including the U.S. census. Drawing on recent advances in human molecular genetics and social science perspectives of socially constructed race, our study takes into account both genetic bio-ancestry and social context in understanding racial classification. This article accomplishes two objectives. First, our research establishes geographic genetic bio-ancestry as a component of racial classification. Second, it shows how social forces trump biology in racial classification and/or how social context interacts with bio-ancestry in shaping racial classification. The findings were replicated in two racially and ethnically diverse data sets: the College Roommate Study (N = 2,065) and the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (N = 2,281).     

Mother’s,Household, and Community U.S. Migration Experience and Infant Mortality in Rural and Urban Mexico

This study explores rural and urban differences in the relationship between U.S. migration experience measured at the individual, household, and community levels and individual-level infant mortality outcomes in a national sample of recent births in Mexico. Using 2000 Mexican Census data and multi-level regression models, we find that women’s own U.S. migration experience is associated with lower odds of infant mortality in both rural and urban Mexico, possibly reflecting a process of healthy migrant selectivity. Household migration has mixed blessings for infant health in rural places: remittances are beneficial for infant survival, but recent out-migration is disruptive. Recent community-level migration experience is not significantly associated with infant mortality overall, although in rural places, there is some evidence that higher levels of community migration are associated with lower infant mortality. Household- and community-level migration have no relationship with infant mortality in urban places. Thus, international migration is associated with infant outcomes in Mexico in fairly complex ways, and the relationships are expressed most profoundly in rural areas of Mexico.

Social vulnerability and migration in the wake of disaster: the case of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

This study explores the relationship between place-based social vulnerability and post-disaster migration in the U.S. Gulf Coast region following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Using county-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop a regional index of social vulnerability and examine how its various dimensions are related to migration patterns in the wake of the storms. Our results show that places characterized by greater proportions of disadvantaged populations, housing damage, and, to a lesser degree, more densely built environments were significantly more likely to experience outmigration following the hurricanes. Our results also show that these relationships were not spatially random, but rather exhibited significant geographic clustering. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for future research and public policy.     

The U.S. federal effort in developing social indicators

As an introduction to this issue, some historical background of the effort of the U.S. Federal goverment in tracking social trends and making use of social indicators is reviewed. The 1934 study, Recent Social Trends in the United States, and the monographs analyzing demographic trends sponsored by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, are seen as antecedents to the current support accorded what has become a kind of triennial Social Indicators publications. The three subject-matter social indicators volumes of the Federal government — Science Indicators, The Condition of Education and Health: U.S.A. — are reviewed in this volume, and the programs of several other agencies, the Bureau. etc., to develop and communicate social indicators are discussed. The forecast for the future of social indicators includes the development of social accounts, the improvement of models that have criterion social indicators as the dependent variable, and the appreciation of the statistical system to provide the information needed for improved monitorship and understanding. These are seen as joint endeavors of the public and private sectors.     

How institutional context alters social reproduction dynamics: Ethnic track placement patterns in the U.S. and Germany

How does institutional context shape the way family dynamics, especially ethnic background and parental resources, affect track placement? We contrast the track placement patterns of immigrants and ethnic majority students in two countries marked by drastic differences in the social organization of schooling. Drawing on German (GSOEP) and U.S. (NELS) data, we find that, in general, more family resources pull students from lower to higher tracks, but ethnic inequalities in these resources favor the ethnic majority groups in both countries. In addition, institutional context conditions which parental resources shape educational outcomes, and how they do so. We find that the effects of parental ties exacerbate ethnic inequalities between whites and Latinos in the U.S.; whereas in Germany, parents’ community ties play a compensatory role for immigrants, who benefit from interactions with secular and ethno-religious groups. Our findings confirm previous cross-national research, but they also highlight the need to elaborate the relationship between institutional context and ethnically specific reproduction mechanisms within countries.     

Dynamics of Internal Migration Determinants for American Jews, 1985–1990 and 1995–2000

This paper examines how individual characteristics and structural factors have changed in determining Jewish internal migration in the U.S. between 1985–1990 and 1995–2000. Multinomial logistic regression analysis of the 1990 and 2000 National Jewish Population Surveys shows that socio-demographic characteristics have both increased their power to explain variation in 5-year migration and have become more similar for intra- and interstate migration. Further analysis added migration status at the beginning-of-period, state context of residence characteristics, and ethnic concentration to the explanatory variables. Results from logistic regression analysis, which was limited to interstate mobility, were very much in accordance with the observations of the single-level analysis of the socio-demographic variables. Additional findings suggest that previous mobility increases subsequent interstate migration; that per capita income does not have a meaningful effect on migration; that unemployment encourages migration (yet later this relationship turned negative); and that warm climate deters migration. The importance of ethnic concentration has weakened over time albeit maintained statistically significant. Finally, when the two surveys were integrated into one data set, “time” enhances the tendency of Jews to migrate. The results are discussed in the context of ethnic diversity in contemporary America.

Diverging Demography: Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Contributions to U.S. Population Redistribution and Diversity

The substantial growth and geographic dispersion of Hispanics is among the most important demographic trends in recent U.S. demographic history. Our county-level study examines how widespread Hispanic natural increase and net migration has combined with the demographic change among non-Hispanics to produce an increasingly diverse population. This paper uses U.S. Census Bureau data and special tabulations of race/ethnic specific births and deaths from NCHS to highlight the demographic role of Hispanics as an engine of new county population growth and ethnoracial diversity across the U.S. landscape. It highlights key demographic processes—natural increase and net migration—that accounted for 1990–2010 changes in the absolute and relative sizes of the Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Hispanics accounted for the majority of all U.S. population growth between 2000 and 2010. Yet, Hispanics represented only 16 % of the U.S. population in 2010. Most previous research has focused on Hispanic immigration; here, we examine how natural increase and net migration among both the Hispanic and non-Hispanic population contribute to the nation’s growing diversity. Indeed, the demographic impact of rapid Hispanic growth has been reinforced by minimal white population growth due to low fertility, fewer women of reproductive age and growing mortality among the aging white population America’s burgeoning Hispanic population has left a large demographic footprint that is magnified by low and declining fertility and increasing mortality among America’s aging non-Hispanic population.     

Family reunification and the immigration multiplier: U.S. immigration law,origin-country conditions,and the reproduction of immigrants

This paper reports estimates of the total numbers of actual legal immigrants to the United States that result from the family reunification provisions of U.S. immigration law. These immigration multipliers are estimated separately for major visa categories and by gender and are obtained in the context of an analysis of how individual characteristics of immigrants and their origin country conditions affect (a) the decision to migrate to the United States and (b) once admitted, their propensity to remain and to become U.S. citizens. The analyses combine longitudinal data on the 1971 cohort of legal immigrants and data from the 1970 Census Public Use Tapes. The results suggest that the actual multipliers differ importantly by visa category and that they are substantially lower than the potential multipliers and lower as well than previously supposed.     

Collective preferences as predictors of interstate migration

The comparison of objective and subjective social indicators can be illuminated by comparing their relations to individual choice, of which migration is an important instance. We have replicated for U.S. states Lowry's (1966) regression model of migration among SMSA's, and added an indirect subjective measure of quality of life in each state. This measure is based on a Gallup survey asking respondents about their preferences among states of the United States as places to live. A measure of collective preference for each state, as viewed by outsiders, is constructed from these responses. This new variable increases R ² from 0.798 to 0.828, and is itself predicted with an R ² of only 0.355 by objective variables. Objective indicators of well-being had increased R ² only from 0.762 to 0.798. We conclude that collective preferences — the subjective measure we have used — play an independent part in predicting migration.     

Racial/Ethnic and Nativity Patterns of U.S. Adolescent and Young Adult Smoking

We document racial/ethnic and nativity differences in U.S. smoking patterns among adolescents and young adults using the 2006 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (n = 44,202). Stratifying the sample by nativity status within five racial/ethnic groups (Asian American, Mexican–American, other Hispanic, non-Hispanic black, and non-Hispanic white), and further by sex and age, we compare self-reports of lifetime smoking across groups. U.S.-born non-Hispanic whites, particularly men, report smoking more than individuals in other racial/ethnic/nativity groups. Some groups of young women (e.g., foreign-born and U.S.-born Asian Americans, foreign-born and U.S.-born Mexican–Americans, and foreign-born blacks) report extremely low levels of smoking. Foreign-born females in all of the 25–34 year old racial/ethnic groups exhibit greater proportions of never smoking than their U.S.-born counterparts. Heavy/moderate and light/intermittent smoking is generally higher in the older age group among U.S.-born males and females, whereas smoking among the foreign-born of both sexes is low at younger ages and remains low at older ages. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of considering both race/ethnicity and nativity in assessments of smoking patterns and in strategies to reduce overall U.S. smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable health disparities.     

Immigration and environmental emissions: A U.S. county-level analysis

This paper investigates the immigration–environment association using U.S. county-level data, for a subset of counties (N = ~200), and a model inspired by the STIRPAT approach. The analysis makes use of U.S. census data for the year 2000 reflecting U.S.-born and foreign-born populations, combined with county-level data reflecting emissions of CO₂, NO₂, PM₁₀, and SO₂. With a focus on approximately 200 primarily urban counties for which complete data are available, and after controlling for income, employment in the utilities and manufacturing sectors, and coal consumption for SO₂ estimations, few statistically significant associations emerge between population composition and emissions. Counties with a relatively larger U.S.-born population have higher NO₂ and SO₂ emissions. On the other hand, counties with a relatively higher number or share of foreign-born residents have lower SO₂ emissions. Although limited to cross-sectional analyses, the results provide a foundation for future longitudinal research on this important and controversial topic.     

Dynamic flow modeling with interregional dependency effects: an application to structural change in the U.S. migration system

Causative matrix methods can be used to project levels of population change, to monitor changing migration trends, and to aid in forecasting movement during periods of consolidation and dissipation. They are appealing because they provide measures of the changing strengths of all interregional dependency effects. Separate competing destinations and competing origins perspectives on temporal change can be obtained. The column sums and the eigenvalues provide useful aggregate gauges of the relative strengths of regional shifts. Patterns of U.S. interregional migration from 1935 to 1982 are examined using the causative matrix approach. Trends in the gross migration streams underlying the dramatic increase in core-periphery net migration taking place in the 1970s are examined, as is a more recent shift in the major source area of core region net outflow.     

Environmental Influences on Human Migration in Rural Ecuador

The question of whether environmental conditions influence human migration has recently gained considerable attention, driven by claims that global environmental change will displace large populations. Despite this high level of interest, few quantitative studies have investigated the potential effects of environmental factors on migration, particularly in the developing world and for gradual but pervasive forms of environmental change. To address this, a retrospective migration survey was conducted in rural Ecuador and linked to data on topography, climate, and weather shocks. These data were used to estimate multivariate event history models of alternative forms of mobility (local mobility, internal migration, and international migration), controlling for a large number of covariates. This approach is generalizable to other study areas and responds to calls for the development of more rigorous methods in this field. The results indicate that adverse environmental conditions do not consistently increase rural out-migration and, in some cases, reduce migration. Instead, households respond to environmental factors in diverse ways, resulting in complex migratory responses. Overall, the results support an alternative narrative of environmentally induced migration that recognizes the adaptability of rural households in responding to environmental change.     

Racial residential segregation in the sun belt

In recent years demographic researchers have devoted considerable attention to two topics: (1) migration to the sun belt and (2) racial and economic transformation of neighborhoods. This study addresses both, and develops a theoretical and analytical model to test the relationship of intra-urban and inter-urban migration patterns as they relate to race and social class. The study measures and analyzes patterns of racial and economic transition in neighborhoods for two Oklahoma SMSAs. Comparisons are made between differential degrees of residential segregation accounted for by in-migrants, utilizing U.S. Census tracts for 1970 and 1980. The model, once specified and evaluated, demonstrates that patterns and factors traditionally associated with residential segregation may have less relevance forsun belt cities in the coming decades.     

Growth of U.S. population, 1940–1971, in the light of an interactive two-sex model

Since it is logically impossible to hold constant both male and female age-specific fertility rates, the intrinsic growth rates or the net reproduction rates for males and females, based on that assumption, are internally inconsistent. The interactive two-sex model presented in this paper holds constant a set of bivariate age-specific fertility rates by age of men and women and allows the male and female age-specific fertility rates to adjust themselves to achieve stability. The model gives the same intrinsic growth rate for both sexes and generates intrinsic age-specific fertility rates and intrinsic net reproduction rates for males and females which are consistent and can operate simultaneously on a population. The model is applied to the U.S. data for 1940–1971, and the results are compared with those obtained from the one-sex models.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

A comparison of the environmental attitudes, concern, and behaviors of native-born and foreign-born U.S. Residents

This research offers an examination of environmental attitudes, concern, and behaviors among individuals presently living within the context producing contemporary American environmental awareness, but who originated from contexts socially, environmentally, and economically distinct. More specifically, data from the 1993 environmental module of the General Social Survey are used to examine variations in environmental awareness across native-and foreign-born individuals. Results suggest that immigrants living in the U.S. do, indeed, express similarattitudes toward environmental issues as compared to native-born residents. However, shorter-term immigrants (those residing abroad at age 16) in particular express significantly higher levels ofconcern with regard to environmental problems as compared to native-born residents. In addition, shorter-term immigrants are more likely to engage in “environmentally friendly” behaviors as compared to native-born residents, although they appear less likely to have signed an environmentally oriented petition.     

Guestworker programs: Evidence from Europe and the United States and some implications for U.S. policy

Mounting concern in the United States over increased illegal migration from Mexico during the past decade has generated a heated policy debate and led to a number of proposals as to how the U.S. government should deal with the problem. Among these has been a call for a temporary worker program similar to the U.S.-sponsored Bracero Program (1942–1964) in which over 4 million Mexican workers were recruited to perform temporary agricultural labor in the southwestern United States. This article considers the implications of such a program by examining the social and economic effects of previous guestworker programs in the United States and western Europe from the perspective of both sending and receiving societies. Particular attention is paid to the efficacy of these programs in promoting temporary as opposed to long-term immigration of foreign workers as well as their developmental impact on sending countries.Now at 2405 Rayburn House Office Building, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington DC 20515.     

Climate-related migration in rural Bangladesh: a behavioural model

Research into the climate change and migration nexus has often focussed solely on how people move in response to the impacts of variability and change in climate. This notion often ignores the nature of migration as a tried and tested livelihood choice amid a variety of socio-economic and environmental opportunities and limitations. This paper closely looks at the behavioural aspects of migration decision-making in Bangladesh in the context of changes in its economy, and, increasingly, exposure to the impacts of climate variability and change. We find that villagers in areas particularly affected by increasing climatic stresses and shocks are diversifying their traditional livelihood strategies by migrating. Environmental factors, including climatic stresses and shocks, often make such shifts even more necessary. Although the migrants’ primary motivation is better income, in effect, migration becomes an effective form of adaptation. Based on a qualitative study in three geographically distinct places of Bangladesh, we propose that migration is a socially acceptable behaviour that occurs in the context of perceived environmental change and climate variability. Migration decisions are mediated by a set of ‘behavioural factors’ that assesses the efficacy of different responses to opportunities and challenges, their socio-cultural acceptance and the ability to respond successfully. This understanding has policy relevance for climate change adaptation, in terms of both how migrants are perceived and how their movements are planned for.