An estimate of a rare population group: The U.S. Jewish population

High, middle, and low estimates for a rare population group, the Jewish population of the United States, are presented together with their root mean square errors. These estimates are based upon a national sample whose essential survey design features are outlined. The features indicate that difficult-to-find populations can be sampled in adequate numbers if some sort of a list can be developed with a fair proportion of the population. To this list must be added an integrated area sampl     

Toward a U.S. population policy

The gratifying media results from a concerted national and local publicity effort when Zero Population Growth (ZPG) released its recommendations for a national population policy are reported. Support was received from 10 members of Congress and local leaders. 8 ZPG chapters and the Washington office held press conferences casting the meaning of increased population growth in regional terms. In Cincinnati, ZPG focused on the shortage of landfill space, in San Francisco the water shortage, and in Massachusetts the rapid urbanization of prime farmland. The Congressmen emphasized that the U.S. must have a comprehensive population policy before it can tell other countries they must. Among the ZPG policies recommended are: zero population growth by 2008, increased funding for family planning services and education, special programs for teenagers, greater public education on population dynamics, increased funding for contraceptive research, enforcement of existing immigration laws, comprehensive review of immigration policy, equal rights for women, and more equitable income tax policy.     

Using surname data in U.S. Puerto Rican mortality analysis

Evidence suggests that among mainland-born decedents. Hispanic (particularly Puerto Rican) origin may have been underreported in states that have added an ancestry item to their death certificates. This study uses the 1980 Census Bureau Spanish-surname list to code surnames on New York City death certificates. By examining the correspondence between surname type and the response to the ancestry item, we identify potential underreporting of Hispanic ethnicity for Spanish-surnamed decedents. A surname-based method then is used to adjust mortality data for mainland-born Puerto Rican decedents.     

Alternative Projections of the U.S. population

The U.S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest.     

Reflections on the demographic conditions needed to establish a U.S. stationary population growth

Abstract It is assumed that in the long run U.S. population growth will have to cease, as otherwise life will become physically impossible. Various hypothetical possibilities of achieving such a type of development are investigated. Alternatives of reproduction rate trends are considered in terms of alternatives of interactions of assumed age-specific fertility and mortality trends and these are computed and evaluated. The various computations then indicate the nature of childbearing attitudes and behaviour, which the 'average population' would have to adopt in order to achieve the desired stationary population growth after a certain period of time. On the other hand the results presented in the paper also indicate that a certain population growth (of the order of 30-50%) and change in age structure is inevitable in the coming 5-10 decades given the initial childbearing behaviour.     

Shifting shares of the population and U.S. fertility

American fertility, as measured by the total fertility rate, apparently has been climbing since 1988 and could approach replacement level in 1990. Three possible explanations are explored: incorrect denominators, actual fertility increase, and changing ethnic proportions of the population. Using California data as a surrogate for the nation, it is found that at least part of the gain in fertility is attributable to what is called "shifting shares." Given that minorities have higher fertility than the majority, as these groups increase their share of the population, the nation's fertility can be expected to continue climbing. Any attempt to attain zero population growth must therefore be postponed indefinitely.     

美国农村人口迁移与启示

美国农村人口迁移始于 2 0世纪 2 0年代 ,结束于 6 0年代 ,均为自发性的移民。其农村人口迁移具有阶段性 ,第一阶段主要是迁往大城市 ,且具有较高文化层次的选择性 ,第二阶段移民则不具有文化选择性 ,移民规模与非农经济发展呈正相关关系 ,移民迁出地与迁入地的距离与移民规模也是呈正相关。美国农村人口迁移的经验 ,对我国农村人口迁移有一定启示。     

U. S. population growth as an abstractly-perceived problem

Recent public opinion polls report that a majority of Americans consider the nation’s population growth rate to be a “serious” problem. Little systematic evidence exists on whether they view the problem as a factor that the individual married couple should consider in deciding on family size. A survey of 134 adult women living in a limited-income family housing project in a relatively small and isolated American community suggests: the view that continued population growth is a problem in the United States is endorsed more strongly than the view that the couple has a responsibility to limit its fertility because of overpopulation; and concern with population growth is only loosely associated with acceptance of the individual responsibility attitude. Among subgroups of respondents, Catholics were more likely to hold a negative attitude toward population growth than to possess the individual responsibility view and they exhibited a correlation between the two attitudes. Protestants were distinguished by no difference in or correlation between the acceptance of the two attitudes. A correlation between the attitudes was especially pronounced among Catholics with high achievement values. It is suggested that measures explicitly intended to control population growth probably cannot be adopted until there is a strong correlation between the two attitudes.     

Reconstruction of fertility trends for the female population of the U.S.S.R

Abstract The article describes fertility trends among Soviet women during the past 40 years as compared to American women during the same period of time. Period-specific fertility rates were arrived at by relating the annual total of live births to a pattern of age-specific fertility rates estimated for each year and also to the number of women for each single year of age. These rates were then appropriately re-arranged and compressed into five-year age groups to form a series of cohort-specific fertility rates. The findings rest on somewhat conjectural estimates of live births and numbers of women in the U.S.S.R., some of which were originally prepared before the 1959 Soviet census. The tentative evidence shows that changes in the period-specific fertility of Soviet women were far more irregular and dramatic in the past, than among American women. After World War II these rates dropped in the U.S.S.R. below those of the United States, except for women over 30 years of age. On the other hand, the cohort-specific rates of Soviet women, although declining from one cohort to the next, at present show their magnitude in the cumulative series for older ages to be marked by higher than among American women. This experimental investigation of fertility in the Soviet Union makes no claim to high standards of accuracy and validity. Its intended purpose is to stress the desirability of shifting emphasis from the temporal and prognostic type of study, characteristic of present-day demographic research about the U.S.S.R., to the generational and historical approach.     

U.S. population: where we are; where we're going

This Bulletin reviews recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, the outlook for the remainder of the 1980s, and prospects for longterm growth. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1% a year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births-deaths) still adds some 1.7 million people a year, despite the rapid postbaby boom fall in fertility to a near-record low rate of 1.9 births/woman in 1981. With increasing numbers of refugees, net legal immigration averaged 600,000/year in 1979-81 and the net inflow of illegal immigrants may now be 500,000 a year. Uncertainty over potentially large numbers of immigrants complicates projections of future U.S. population size. Currently, the U.S. death rate is at an alltime low. More than 1/2 the population now resides in the South and West. Rural areas and small towns grew faster than urban areas in the 1970s for the 1st time in over a century. Educational attainment is at an alltime high, as is labor force participation, due to increasing employment among women and the baby boom generation's arrival at working ages. The age composition of the population, with the bulge of the baby boom generation surrounded by the older "depression" generation born during the 1930s and the younger "baby bust" generation born since the end of the 1960s, presents special problems for U.S. society.     

Foreign-born and native-born migration in the U.S.: evidence from linked IRS administrative and census survey records

Journal of Population Research - This paper details efforts to link administrative records from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to American Community Survey (ACS) and 2010 Census microdata for...     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.     

The effect of illegitimacy on U.S. general fertility rates and population growth

Abstract Illegitimacy and bridal pregnancy has attracted the attention of scholars concerned with a variety of plausible causes and consequences ofbirths conceived out of wedlock. Sociologists have expressed concern with the impact of such births on maternal and child health, family stability and the economic status offamilies. Although demographers have described trends in various populations, and have occasionally suggested that births conceived out of wedlock influence general fertility rates and cohort fertility, measures of the demographic impact of illegitimate or premaritally conceived births have not been assessed. While it seems obvious that a change in births conceived out of wedlock will affect change in a general fertility rate, this finding would not automatically allow the conclusion that cohort fertility would change because a change in the rate of births conceived out of wedlock occurred.     

Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977

An analysis is made of the mortality trends over the period 1968 to 1977 indicated by two types of cause-specific mortality data. The first type of data is “underlying cause” of death data—the data heretofore used in national vital statistics reports on cause-specific mortality. The second type of data is “multiple cause” data which contain a listing of all medical conditions recorded on the death certificate. A comparison of trends in the two types of data yields useful insights on mortality declines over the study period for two reasons. First, these declines were largely due to a reduction in the mortality rates of circulatory diseases. Second, the multiple cause data contain considerably more information than the underlying cause data on the role of circulatory diseases, and many other chronic diseases, in causing death. This additional information is especially useful in examining mortality patterns among the elderly, where the prevalence at death of chronic degenerative diseases is high.     

Residential expansion as a continental threat to U.S. coastal ecosystems

Spatially extensive analysis of satellite, climate, and census data reveals human-environment interactions of regional or continental concern in the United States. A grid-based principal components analysis of Bureau of Census variables revealed two independent demographic phenomena, α-settlement reflecting traditional human settlement patterns and β-settlement describing relative population growth correlated with recent construction in non-agricultural areas, notably in coastal, desert, and “recreational” counties and around expanding metropolitan areas. Regression tree analysis showed that β-settlement was differentially associated with five distinct combinations of seasonality, summer heat or cool, intensity of agriculture, and extent of “barren” land. Beta-settlement was greatest in coastal and desert areas, and coincided with national concentrations of threatened and endangered species.     

国外人口普查：从全面调查到行政记录

人口普查的传统方法是全面调查。这种方法的缺陷是成本高、居民负担重和数据质量不高。为了改变这个局面．一些国家正在尝试或者是已经把行政记录作为人口普查数据来源。     

Relation of marriage and education to fertility in the U.S.S.R

Abstract One-half of the variation in Soviet fertility as measured by the child-woman ratio is attributable to the proportion of married women in the 20-24 age group. The familar sociological hypothesis of an inverse relation between human fertility and education also is fully substantiated with data for the 36 major ethnic groups in the U.S.S.R. The second and third best predicting variables fall into the two extreme age groups: (a) those 16 to 19 years of age with more than seven years of school completed and (b) those men and women aged 60 and over with the equivalent formal education. Results of this study support the modified hypothesis that complements previously publicized findings. It asserts that variations in fertility attributable to the traditionally religious values can be explained in terms of the age-specific marriage and educational differentials known to have existed in the past and still characteristic of the multi-national society in the Soviet Union.     

Combining registration-system and survey data to estimate birth probabilities

With the widespread availability of event-history data, demographers have increasingly eschewed registration-system data in favor of survey data. We propose instead using survey and registration-system data in combination, via a constrained maximum-likelihood framework for demographic hazard modeling. As an application, we combine panel survey data and birth registration data to estimate annual birth probabilities by parity. The general fertility rate obtained from registration-system data constrains the weighted sum of parity-specific birth probabilities. The variances about the parity-specific birth probabilities are halved when registration-system data are used to constrain the estimates. Other demographic applications are discussed.