利用小普查数据对“随机婚配”假定的再检验--兼论Logistic回归系数的可比性问题

使用2005年人口小普查数据研究了独生子女之间的婚配选择问题,发现独生子女更可能与独生子女结婚,且非独生子女也更可能与非独生子女结婚,所以认为独生子女与非独生子女之间“随机婚配”的假定并不符合实际。然而,以往有关生育政策调整的人口预测大都基于这一假定之上,这导致预测结果一方面低估了“双独”和“双非”夫妇的数量,另一方面高估了“单独”夫妇的数量。同时,本文还以独生子女的婚配选择问题为例讨论了嵌套模型中Logistic回归系数的可比性问题。直接比较Logistic回归系数可能导致错误的结论,借助“y?标准化”法和“KHB分解法”可以在一定程度上解决Logistic回归系数不可比的问题。     

Mother’s home time and the production of child quality

This paper deals with the effect of mother’s time spent out of the labor force, and presumably in the home, on the “production” of child quality, where child quality is measured by intelligence (IQ), level of schooling attained, and market earning power. The results indicate that mother’s home time is most effective in producing (male) child quality for mothers who have attained relatively high levels of schooling. The results suggest that education programs which devote equal school resources to all (male) children do not necessarily provide equal educational opportunity and that the influence of family background on economic success is indirect, operating through home investments in children.     

Patterns of residential segregation within a metropolitan ghetto

The residential segregation of families by income and by stage of the family life cycle within Milwaukee’s black community resembles in both pattern and degree that in the white community. The greater the difference in income, the more dissimilar are the distributions by census tract. Dissimilarity is greater between younger couples without children and older couples with children than between any other pair of family types defined by husband’s age and presence of children. However, segregation by income was substantially greater than by family type in 1960. The bases of selectivity of blacks in“changing” areas of the city, where the proportion black is still relatively low, and of whites in the“suburban” areas adjoining the city are similar. Families in the higher income groups and couples with children are over-represented in these areas. It would appear that given the pressures of limited housing space in the inner core of the black community, given the fact that certain amenities are not available in that area, and given the economic and social barriers which restrict the movement of blacks into the suburbs, the changing areas must function as“suburbs” for the black community.     

Couple childbearing plans and births in Sweden

We use data from a nationally representative sample of Swedish couples to estimate effects of partners’ childbearing plans on the rate of subsequent childbearing. Only 11% of the couples in this sample expressed plans in opposite directions (plan to have a child versus not to have a child), but 24% had differing levels of certainty about their plans. Of the couples in which both partners said they definitely planned to have another child, 44% had a child within two years. If neither partner planned to have another child, less than 2% of couples had a birth. The figure was 6% if the partners had opposing childbearing plans. Thus, both men and women exerted veto power over further childbearing. Disagreements were equally likely to be resolved in favor of the woman as of the man, and effects of partners’ plans on the birth hazard did not depend on the couple’s gender arrangements, family ideologies, or marital status. We discuss these results in the context of Sweden’s public support for gender equality and for childrearing, its pervasive contraceptive regime, and its high rates of cohabitation. We also argue for the collection of data from partners in future family and fertility surveys.     

Family composition and marital dissolution in rural Nepal, 1945–2008

The presence, number, sex, and age composition of children within families can have important influences on couples’ marital outcomes. Children are valued across settings, but their value in settings where there is an absence of formalized social security is distinctive. This paper explores the influences of childlessness, and different number, age, and sex compositions of children, on the odds of marital dissolution among couples in rural Nepal. Results reveal that childless couples face significantly higher odds of dissolution than couples with at least one child, and each additional child—up to three children—reduces couples’ odds of dissolution. Furthermore, having a child aged under two reduces couples’ odds of marital dissolution, but interactions reveal that this age effect only holds at parity one. Surprisingly, despite a history of son preference in this setting, there is no evidence that children’s within-parity sex composition is associated with the odds of marital dissolution.     

We must pay attention to the difference between the original intention and the current status of family planning]

Due to imperfections in the current family planning (FP) policy, and the differences un program implementation in urban and rural areas, the fertility of the urban population with higher IQ scores is under control but this is not the case for the rural population. Among rural couples, one child is rare and two or three are commonplace, while in cities over 70% of couples are having one child. In the metropolitan cities, this figure is about 90%. In the rural areas, provision of education is a serious problem because of insufficient resources, a lack of qualified teachers and inadequate facilities. At the present, at least 3 million school age children in rural areas can not go to primary school. Besides there is a big contrast in FP practice between Han nationality and minorities. Population growth is basically under control among the more advanced Han nationally but not among the less advances minority nationalities. This growth rate among the minority population was about 50.27/1000 in the past five years, which is alarming. Furthermore, the couples given opportunity to have a second child are often those whose first child had birth defects or is mentally retarded, whereas couples with a normal child can have only one child. This has become a vicious circle, since subsequent children are more likely to have the same birth defects. It was discovered from a 1983-85 survey that the prevalence of birth defects was 12.8/1000. The current situation is that the fertility of urban, educated, and healthy people is restricted while the less educated, those living in less developed areas, and those with health defects are having more children. The outcome of this situation is the decline of national population quality, which greatly deviates from the original intention of the FP.     

Changes in fertility patterns can improve child survival in Southeast Asia

This analysis of 1988 Philippine Demographic Survey data provides information on the direct and indirect effects of several major determinants of childhood mortality in the Philippines. Data are compared to rates in Indonesia and Thailand. The odds of infant mortality in the Philippines are reduced by 39% by spacing children more than two years apart. This finding is significant because infant mortality rates have not declined over the past 20 years. Child survival is related to the number of children in the family, the spacing of the children, the mother's age and education, and the risks of malnutrition and infection. Directs effects on child survival are related to infant survival status of the preceding child and the length of the preceding birth interval, while key indirect or background variables are maternal age and education, birth order, and place of residence. The two-stage causation model is tested with data on 13,716 ever married women aged 15-49 years and 20,015 index children born between January 1977 and February 1987. Results in the Philippine confirm that maternal age, birth order, mortality of the previous child, and maternal education are directly related to birth interval, while mortality of the previous child, birth order, and maternal educational status are directly related to infant mortality. Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines all show similar explanatory factors that directly influence infant mortality. The survival status of the preceding child is the most important predictor in all three countries and is particularly strong in Thailand. This factor acts through the limited time interval for rejuvenation of mother's body, nutritional deficiencies, and transmission of infectious disease among siblings. The conclusion is that poor environmental conditions increase vulnerability to illness and death. There are 133% greater odds of having a short birth interval among young urban women than among older rural women. There is a 29% increase in odds for second parity births compared to third or higher order parities. Maternal education is a strong predictor of infant survival only in the Philippines and Indonesia. Adolescent pregnancy is a risk only in Indonesia. Socioeconomic factors are not as important as birth interval, birth order, and maternal education in determining survival status.     

The effects of children on divorce and re-marriage: a multivariate analysis of life table probabilities

Summary Using proportional hazards models and multiple decrement life tables to analyse data from the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, this study tests the hypotheses that, net of the effects of such factors as age at separation or divorce, the probabilities of divorce after separation and of re-marriage after divorce would be lower for women with larger numbers of children or younger children, and that these transitions would take longer than for women with fewer or older children or women who were childless; and that there would be an interaction between number of children and age of youngest child. Results included: (1) the probability that mothers of two or more children would divorce after separation was significantly lower than for childless women, or those with only one child; (2) among whites, mothers of three or more children were at a significant disadvantage regarding their chances of re-marriage, whereas the probability that a black mother of three or more children would re-marry was no smaller than that of a woman with fewer or no children; (3) among whites, the presence of a youngest child aged between two and five years at separation decreased the probability of divorce after separation; (4) there was no interaction effect between number and age of children; and (5) in each category of family size and age of youngest child, the probability that a black woman would divorce after separation or re-marry after divorce was lower than for white women. The results have important implications for the study of divorce and re-marriage, and for understanding of problems of single-parent families.     

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past.     

Family growth,household density,and moving

Residential and family histories collected from a sample of 4,027 couples in their first marriage and living in the Philadelphia-Trenton metropolitan area in 1960 are analyzed to determine the effects of marriage duration and childbearing on moving within the “local area.” Rates of moving decline sharply during the early years of marriage and more slowly after the tenth year. At any given marriage duration, the birth of children is associated with higher rates of moving. If the persons-per-room ratio of non-movers represents an acceptable household density, moving can be shown to be an adjustment mechanism whereby housing space is brought in balance with family needs. When couples who moved during a given three-year period defined in terms of marriage duration are compared with couples who did not move during that period, the movers are found to have had higher initial densities, would have had substantially higher densities had they not moved, but have similar terminal (after move) densities.     

Evaluating the Quality of Urban Development Plans Promoted by the European Union: The URBAN and URBANA Initiatives in Spain (1994–2013)

Since the 1990s, the European Union has launched different programs to promote urban development plans. Implementation and outcomes evaluations have resulted in a “European urban acquis” concerning the importance of comprehensiveness, collaborative governance, and participation to promote “good plans.” However, the evaluation of the quality of local plans, has received less attention. This article analyses quality of local plans developed under the framework of European Policies in Spain applying the plan quality evaluation approach, as well as factors explaining quality levels of these local plans. A scale to measure plan quality is proposed based on five main dimensions (fact base, objectives, policy actions, plan governance, evaluation). 64 local plans are analyzed applying content analysis. RgW and AD tests are used to measure codification reliability. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) is used to assess the validity of plan quality scale. Lineal regression is applied to analyze the impact of different aspects of planning process included in the ‘European urban acquis’ on plan quality. Main results show that CFA validates the scale proposed to measure local plan quality as a second-order factor; and point out objectives and policy actions as the most important first-order factors. Public participation during planning process, and more comprehensive plan across different policy areas, are the main factors explaining ‘good plans’. Therefore, the importance of the ‘European urban acquis,’ is confirmed in order to produce ‘good’ urban development plans; and the article provides a validated scale to evaluate the quality of urban development plans, and their main dimensions.

     

The Latent Profiles of Life Domain Importance and Satisfaction in a Quality of Life Scale

The present study aimed to use a latent profile analysis to distinguish between populations in terms of life domain importance and satisfaction profiles. Then, a multinomial logistic regression was used to determine how background variables (e.g., gender, living areas, and school levels) and self-perceived health predict each latent quality of life (QoL) profile. We also investigated how the latent groups of adolescents predicted negative and positive well-being indicators (e.g., problem behaviors and overall life satisfaction). The sample consisted of 720 Taiwanese secondary school students. Three latent groups were established as follows: “unimportant-unsatisfied,” “important-unsatisfied,” and “important-satisfied.” The results indicate the following: (a) boys were more likely to fall into the “unimportant-unsatisfied” group than were girls; (b) better health increased the likelihood of being in the “important-satisfied” group; (c) high school students were more likely to be in the “unimportant-unsatisfed” group than were middle school students; and (d) no relationship was found between latent groups and living areas. The function of importance rating was not present when evaluating the importance-satisfaction profiles and their relationship with problem behaviors and overall life satisfaction. The problems of the “unimportant-unsatisfied” profile among youth are discussed.     

Factors related to the intention to have additional children in the United States: A reanalysis of data from the 1965 and 1970 national fertility studies

Reproductive intentions of white mothers with no more than three children in 1965 and in 1970 were analyzed for their stability and change with respect to such factors as parity, age of the youngest child, wife’s employment, and husband’s education. Parity and age of the youngest child were found to have a much more important effect on the intent to have additional children than were such socioeconomic variables as wife’s employment and husband’s education. Parity and the interval since the latest birth (or the age of the youngest child) were found to have a nonlinear effect and to interact in affecting the reproductive intention. This suggests a convergence to a twochild family as the threshold size and that the length of childspacing is contingent on the parity. Change during 1965–1970 in this direction was found to be greater among mothers with husbands having college or higher educations.     

From Child to Parent? The Significance of Children’s Education for Their Parents’ Longevity

In addition to own education and other socioeconomic resources, the education of one’s children may be important for individual health and longevity. Mothers and fathers born between 1932 and 1941 were analyzed by linking them to their children in the Swedish Multi-generation Register, which covers the total population. Controlling for parents’ education, social class, and income attenuates but does not remove the association between children’s education and parents’ mortality risk. Shared but unmeasured familial background characteristics were addressed by comparing siblings in the parental generation. In these fixed-effects analyses, comparing parents whose children had tertiary education with parents whose children completed only compulsory schooling (the reference group) yields a hazard ratio of 0.79 (95 % CI: 0.70–0.89) when the socioeconomic position of both parents is controlled for. The relationship is certainly not purely causal, but part of it could be if, for example, well-educated adult children use their resources to find the best available health care for their aging parents. I therefore introduce the concept of “social foreground” and suggest that children’s socioeconomic resources may be an important factor in trying to further understand social inequalities in health.     

中国城市家庭的代际情感交流--基于独生子女生命历程视角的实证分析

情感交流是家庭代际关系中较难衡量、研究也相对薄弱的一个层面,父母子女间的亲密交往和情感沟通不仅有利于增进家庭成员的健康,也有助于家庭和社会的和谐稳定。文章利用全国抽样调查数据,基于独生子女的生命历程视角,从方式、强度、内容和方向四个维度,实证分析中国城市家庭的代际情感交流状况,特别关注独生子女和非独生子女的差异,以及子女生命历程中重要事件的影响。本研究发现,总体而言独生子女与父母的代际情感交流更密切,但交流方式与强度受到居住距离和流动特征的影响;就业、婚育事件虽会降低青年与父母同住的可能性,但也会增加见面和通讯频率。父母的资源和需求等特征对代际情感交流有显著影响。     

Consanguinity and child mortality: The risk faced by families

Previous research reveals that the characteristics and practices of a child's family are important determinants of its chances of surviving beyond childhood. This study investigates the effects of consanguinity on a family's odds of experiencing the death of a child in Pakistan, a society in which marriage among close relatives is common. Analysis of data from the 1991 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey reveals that first cousin marriages increase a couple's risk of enduring the death of one or more of their children. These couples are 1.18 times as likely to have a child die by its fifth birthday than couples not related by blood net of other factors associated with child mortality. Elimination of first cousin marriages would contribute to a modest decrease in the proportion of Pakistani families suffering the death of a child.     

Number of children and later-life mortality among Finns born 1938–50

We investigated the association between number of offspring and later-life mortality of Finnish men and women born 1938–50, and whether the association was explained by living conditions in own childhood and adulthood, chronic conditions, fertility timing, and unobserved characteristics common to siblings. We used a longitudinal 1950 census sample to estimate mortality at ages 50–72. Relative to parents of two children, all-cause mortality is highest among childless men and women, and elevated among those with one child, independently of observed confounders. Fixed-effect models, which control for unobserved characteristics shared by siblings, clearly support these findings among men. Cardiovascular mortality is higher among men with no, one, or at least four children than among those with two. Living conditions in adulthood contribute to the association between the number of children and mortality to a greater extent than childhood background, and chronic conditions contribute to the excess mortality of the childless.     

Measuring the impact of child mortality on fertility: A methodological note

Recent studies of the impact of child mortality on children ever born have used the “replacement factor” to measure mortality. When microlevel data are used, however, use of the replacement factor (or other variables which are nonlinear in the family’s experienced child mortality rate) yields biased coefficients. An alternative model suggests a sequential, rather than a static, decision-making process to relate the decision to have an additional child to the reproductive experience to date. In this case, unbiased coefficients are obtained if the functional form is correctly specified. In the absence of a priori knowledge of the functional form, it is difficult to untangle true effects from spurious ones.     

Global concerns,local negotiations and moral selves:

Parents are contradictorily positioned within the “sexualisation of childhood” debate. They (“we”) are assumed to be concerned about sexualisation, and are urged to challenge it through campaigning, “saying no,” discussing “media messages” with children, and so on. Yet “irresponsible” consumption practices, particularly by mothers, are also held responsible for sexualisation. We argue that parental concern may be overstated: participants in our qualitative research into “sexualised goods” tended not to perceive their own children as “sexualised,” did not accept that products are inherently sexualised, and subscribed to ideas about child development and “good” parenting that entailed letting children make their own decisions about such items. Nonetheless, mothers are increasingly compelled to participate in the “sexualisation debate,” and doing so appears to encourage perpetual self-scrutiny and surveillance of others to maintain boundaries between “acceptable,” peer-group-appropriate and “inappropriate” practices and choices. In this sense sexualisation can be seen as a site for the formation of ethical, responsibilised parent subjectivities. We argue that it has costs for (working-class) women and girls in particular: it naturalises social inequalities by obscuring the constraints on individual choice, converges with older discourses that make women responsible for male sexual violence, and reinforces narrow and conventional moral agendas.     

Who Goes to College,Military, Prison,or Long-Term Unemployment? Racialized School-to-Labor Market Transitions Among American Men

This paper analyzes the selection processes behind post-schooling transitions into college enrollment, military service, long-term unemployment, and incarceration relative to civilian employment, examining to what extent these processes are racialized. Rather than analyzing a complete set of alternatives, previous research typically focuses on a limited set of these alternatives at a time, and rarely accounts for incarceration or long-term unemployment. Using individual-level panel data on the first post-high school transition from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 Cohort, results show that white men experience positive transitions (college enrollment and military service) at higher rates and for longer periods than black men, who experience negative transitions (long-term unemployment and incarceration) at higher rates for longer periods than whites. Competing risk Cox regression analyses reveal that blacks’ transitions are polarized, showing that blacks in the upper distributions of standardized test scores and socioeconomic status are more likely to pursue a college education relative to their white counterparts, whereas blacks in the bottom of the standardized test score and socioeconomic status distribution are more likely to experience negative transitions than whites. Unlike prior research finding that military service provided “bridging careers” for racial minorities, black men are no longer more likely to join the military than whites. Instead, blacks now face a much higher risk of incarceration. Implications for intra-generational mobility and changing opportunity structures for racial minorities are discussed.