THE WELFARE GAINS OF FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION: CAPITAL ACCUMULATION AND HETEROGENEITY

Research has shown that, absent individual heterogeneity and under complete markets, the welfare impact of financial openness is quantitatively limited. Not only are inequalities in wealth and labor productivity a feature of most societies, but also financial markets suffer from many well‐known frictions. This paper demonstrates that, when households face borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks to income, the welfare implications of financial liberalization are considerable. For instance, the average increase in welfare of a typical emerging market economy that switches from a closed capital market to perfect capital mobility is equivalent to a permanent increase in average consumption of roughly 5.4%. This is about 3.9 times more than the welfare gains of the same policy under a complete markets environment without any individual heterogeneity. We show that individual heterogeneity accounts for two thirds of this additional increase in the average welfare gain; market incompleteness accounts for the remaining third. In our calibration, the median household in capital‐scarce countries is in favor of international financial integration. However, if the pivotal voter is wealthy enough then such reform might not be implemented, since richer households have a vested interest in capital market closedness.     

INFLATION,MAINTENANCE OF CAPITAL,AND THE IRR MODEL: AN APPRAISAL AND ALTERNATIVE

Capital budgeting under inflationary conditions presents some additional implementation problems when computing the internal rate of return. This paper reviews an earlier proposal made in this journal and concludes that it has some technical deficiencies. Further, it does not have the flexibility needed to be congruent with a wide variety of concepts of capital maintenance and asset evaluation. An algorithm is developed that will permit the user to make a variety of assumptions and then solve for the IRR that is consistent with those assumptions.     

A COMPARISON OF THE EFFECTS OF EXOGENOUS OIL SUPPLY SHOCKS ON OUTPUT AND INFLATION IN THE G7 COUNTRIES

A comparison of the effects of exogenous shocks to global crude oil production on seven major industrialized economies suggests a fair degree of similarity in the real growth responses. An exogenous oil supply disruption typically causes a temporary reduction in real GDP growth that is concentrated in the second year after the shock. Inflation responses are more varied. The median CPI inflation response peaks after three to four quarters. Exogenous oil supply disruptions need not generate sustained inflation or stagflation. Typical responses include a fall in the real wage, higher short‐term interest rates, and a depreciating currency with respect to the dollar. Despite many qualitative similarities, there is strong statistical evidence that the responses to exogenous oil supply disruptions differ across G7 countries. For suitable subsets of countries, homogeneity cannot be ruled out. A counterfactual historical exercise suggests that the evolution of CPI inflation in the G7 countries would have been similar overall to the actual path even in the absence of exogenous shocks to oil production, consistent with a monetary explanation of the inflation of the 1970s. There is no evidence that the 1973–1974 and 2002–2003 oil supply shocks had a substantial impact on real growth in any G7 country, whereas the 1978–1979, 1980, and 1990–1991 shocks contributed to lower growth in at least some G7 countries. (JEL: E31, E32, Q43)     

STAKEHOLDERS AND COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE: THE CASE OF ISO 14001

This paper integrates a stakeholder perspective into the resource‐based view of the firm, to analyze the mechanisms that link the adoption of the international Environmental Management Standard ISO 14001 to firms' competitive advantage. This paper shows that the perceived competitiveness impact of the standard depends mostly on the involvement of firms' external stakeholders (distributors, customers, community members, and regulatory agencies) in its design. ISO 14001 is a process standard, and it is difficult for stakeholders to get credible information on the effectiveness of the standard if they are not involved in its design. Stakeholders' involvement in a firm's ISO 14001 standard becomes a valuable organizational capability, which is difficult to imitate by competitors. The analysis is supported by primary data collected from a questionnaire mailed to 152 firms, resulting in 55 observations representing 30% of the total number of firms certified in the U.S. in August 1998.     

SERVICE TYPOLOGIES: A STATE OF THE ART SURVEY

Services comprise an ever-expanding source of employment in the world's economies and are of significant interest to both academicians and practitioners. In this study, historical perspectives from which to view service typologies are provided and four decades of service typologies are chronicled. The interest in services demonstrated by academicians is tracked over time as are the purposes for which typologies have been developed. A unified schematic representation of services is developed in which the common themes underlying service typology development are identified from both a macro and micro level. Based on this study, areas for future research are identified.     

FORECAST EVALUATION OF LIVINGSTON DATA ON INFLATION RATES AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY*

Livingston data on expected inflation rates have been used extensively in the financial literature, especially in investgating the relationship between nominal interest rates and expected inflation rates; however, the data have not been subjected to a thorough analysis of forecast accuracy. The objective of this paper is to analyze the forecast properties of Livingston data using a wide variety of time and frequency domain methods over an extended sample period and for selected subperiods.     

THE WELFARE COST OF LAWLESSNESS: EVIDENCE FROM SOMALI PIRACY

In spite of general agreement that establishing the rule of law is central to properly functioning economies, little is known about the cost of law and order breakdowns. This paper studies a specific context of this by estimating the effect of Somali piracy attacks on shipping costs using data on shipping contracts in the dry bulk market. To estimate the effect of piracy, we look at shipping routes whose shortest path exposes them to piracy and find that the increase in attacks in 2008 led to around an 8% to 12% increase in costs. From this we calculate the welfare loss imposed by piracy. We estimate that generating around 120 USD million of revenue for Somali pirates led to a welfare loss in excess of 630 USD million, making piracy an expensive way of making transfers.     

THE EQUALITY MULTIPLIER: HOW WAGE COMPRESSION AND WELFARE EMPOWERMENT INTERACT

We explore how more wage equality fuels the generosity of the welfare state via political competition in elections, and how a more generous welfare state fuels wage equality via empowerment of weak groups in the labor market. Together the two mechanisms may generate a cumulative process that explains how equality multiplies, and why countries with more equal distributions of market outcomes also have stronger welfare states. The complementarity between wage setting and welfare spending can explain why almost equally rich countries differ so much in economic and social equality among their citizens. (JEL: H53, I31, J31)     

A SIMULATION MODEL OF THE HIGHER EDUCATION SYSTEM OF A STATE1

This paper describes a simulation model to estimate the enrollments and expenditures associated with various policy alternatives for the post-secondary education system of a state, with Indiana as an example. Enrollments, operating expenditures, and construction costs are predicted for every public and private school for each year until 1985. The basic model-building technique employed is regression analysis on historical data, but it is supplemented by other quantitative techniques and by experts' predictions. The model may be used to predict “most likely” future enrollments and costs, to perform sensitivity analyses to better understand the impact of various exogenous variables upon the system, and to evaluate possible policy alternatives. Including all of the schools in a state makes possible the evaluation of policy alternatives such as possible configurations of new two-year public schools, the effect of tuition changes, and the effect of enrollment ceilings for larger state universities.     

COST,PRICE, AND THE CONTRACTING RELATION: A CASE STUDY

The paper describes the failure of a project in which a group of computer specialists tried to help a group of scholars by automating a conference registration system. Although there was a warm and personal relationship between the group liaisons, difficulties arose because there was no agreed-on mechanism to allocate priorities and resources. The author analyzes the price and cost mechanisms which might have been used to communicate complex trade-offs and thus avert the ensuing disaster.     

CIVIL SOCIETY AND THE STATE: THE INTERPLAY BETWEEN COOPERATION AND MINIMUM WAGE REGULATION

In a cross‐section of countries, state regulation of labor markets is negatively correlated with the quality of labor relations. In this paper, we argue that these facts reflect different ways of regulating labor markets, either through the state or through the civil society, depending on the degree of cooperation in the economy. We rationalize these facts with a model of learning of the quality of labor relations. Distrustful labor relations lead to low unionization and high demand for direct state regulation of wages. In turn, state regulation crowds out the possibility for workers to experiment negotiation and learn about the potential cooperative nature of labor relations. This crowding out effect can give rise to multiple equilibria: a “good” equilibrium characterized by cooperative labor relations and high union density, leading to low state regulation; and a “bad” equilibrium, characterized by distrustful labor relations, low union density, and strong state regulation of the minimum wage.     

THE DETAIL SCHEDULING OF A PART-TIME WORK FORCE: A CASE STUDY OF TELLER STAFFING

This paper presents a comparison of two heuristic methods for assigning a part-time work force to meet varying daily work loads. The authors use actual operating data from Purdue National Bank, Lafayette, Indiana, to make teller staffing decisions. The performance criteria for comparison of the two heuristics is the minimum number of workers employed, minimum number of interbranch transfers, and computer time necessary to attain a solution.     

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE IN WELFARE STATES: THE IMPACTS OF SOFT DURATION CONSTRAINTS

Abstract Based on a major reform of Norwegian unemployment insurance (UI), we examine the behavioral impacts of soft and hard UI duration constraints. A constraint is interpreted as hard if a claimant cannot rely on any form of income support after exhaustion, and as soft if UI is replaced by follow‐on benefits or participation in active labor market programs (ALMP). We find that both hard and soft constraints raise the job hazard significantly, with surprisingly similar spikes at UI exhaustion. Participation in ALMP raises the probability of eventually finding a job, but at the cost of lengthening the overall job‐search period.     

INFLATION RISK PREMIA IN THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES

This paper estimates the size and dynamics of inflation risk premia in the euro area, based on a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics. Information from both nominal and index‐linked yields is used in the empirical analysis. Our results indicate that the inflation risk premium on euro area 10‐year nominal yields was approximately equal to 20 basis points on average over the 1999–2007 period. The inflation premium has also been subject to moderate, but statistically significant fluctuations. For the post‐2003 period in which reliable index‐linked bond prices are available, our results suggest that increases in the raw break‐even inflation rate above 2%, the upper bound of the European Central Bank's definition for price stability, have mostly reflected variations in the inflation risk premium, while long‐term inflation expectations have remained well anchored.     

UNSUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION THE CASE OF A COMPUTER-BASED ORDER ENTRY SYSTEM

This paper discusses results of a longitudinal field experiment to evaluate the implementation of a computer-based system. This new system includes the introduction of an optically scanned order input form and new computer programs. It is hypothesized that successful implementation would be affected by the quality of service and the personal costs and benefits to the users of the new system. The experimental results show a marked reduction in job satisfaction after implementation of the new system. The implications of the findings for the implementation of computer-based systems in general are discussed.     

Concepts,Theory, and Techniques INFLATION,MAINTENANCE OF CAPITAL,AND THE IRR MODEL OF CAPITAL BUDGETING*

Businesses operating under inflationary conditions need capital-budgeting models that help them judge the adequacy of returns on their investments and also allow them to keep capital intact by considering the erosive effects of inflation. The model proposed in this paper computes a modified internal rate of return (IRR); if cash inflows from a project are divided between earnings and recovery of capital, total recovery equals that amount which the capital-budgeting concept adopted by the business specifies (such as the original investment in constant dollars or its replacement cost). Under this model, a project should be accepted only if this computed rate equals or exceeds a hurdle rate that consists of the inflation-free rate of return plus the effect of inflation on such a return. Other modifications to the IRR model suggested in the literature do not completely satisfy the objective of capital budgeting under inflationary conditions.     

DISENFRANCHISEMENT IN LINGUISTICALLY DIVERSE SOCIETIES: THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

We consider a linguistically diversified society and examine the notion of language disenfranchisement when some individuals are denied the full access to documents and political process in their native tongues. To calculate the disenfranchisement indices we use the Dyen percentage cognate matrix of linguistic distances between Indo‐European languages and apply survey and population data on language proficiency in the European Union. We then determine optimal sets of official languages that depend on society's sensitivity against disenfranchisement and comprehensiveness of the chosen language regime. We also discuss the language situation in the European Union after its last enlargement. (JEL: D70, O52, Z13)     

CATEGORIZE THEN CHOOSE: BOUNDEDLY RATIONAL CHOICE AND WELFARE

We propose a boundedly rational model of choice where agents categorize alternatives before choosing. The model explains some behavioral anomalies, and it is fully characterized by a property of choice data: a categorizer can never exhibit certain patterns of “revealed preference reversals”. This model offers clues on the problem of making welfare judgements in the presence of boundedly rational agents.     

A TEACHING NOTE ON THE USE OF ASSUMPTIONS IN CASE STUDY

This note describes a modification in the conventional case method of instruction. The modification, which deals with the problem caused by each student making a different set of assumptions for a given case, has successfully met the test of classroom use.