中国A股市场金融板块间风险相依关系及动态演化研究

将中国金融板块细分为国有大型银行、全国性股份制银行、城商行、证券、保险和信托等6个金融子板块，并以2015年中国股市异动和2019年新冠肺炎疫情为研究背景，分析在两个场景下的不同时期内，6个金融板块间的风险相依关系及其动态演化。通过计算各板块间波动指数的互信息，构建金融板块风险相依关系网络，并使用最大生成树刻画该相依关系的核心结构。研究发现，在市场处于相对平静时期，银行类金融板块与非银行类金融板块二者彼此之间的风险关联较弱，处于相对割裂状态；在市场走势波动较大时，银行类金融板块与非银行类金融板块之间的风险关联程度增强，且保险板块成为重要的中间节点；在两个场景下的异动期和疫情期，国有大型银行板块和城商行板块分别成为最大的风险节点。     

How do Greek banking institutions react after significant events?—A DEA approach

The efficiency of Greek commercial banks is considered through the period 1995–2003 using the data envelopment analysis technique. Two approaches are used to measure efficiency: one using financial ratios as outputs only and the other viewing banks as credit generation and transaction institutions. The empirical results are used to examine the reaction of banking institutions after significant events such as M&As, privatizations and the crisis of the Athens Stock Exchange in 1999. In most cases performance deteriorates for the next 1 to 2 years, while increases thereafter, forming specific patterns of efficiency. In the last part we introduce an index to measure the management's efficiency through a process of change. The results suggest that the Greek banking sector operated efficiently on average during the destabilization periods. The contribution of the article is that it comprises the first study which examines empirically the performance behavior of banking institutions within the scope of change management theory.     

基于动态因子Copula模型的行业间系统性风险分析

国际金融市场间的相关关系以及系统性风险受到很多学者的重视，本文则以我国股市的行业指数作为研究对象进行实证研究。通过构建动态因子Copula模型，文章对行业的日收益率数据进行了动态相关性分析，并基于风险预期占比度量了我国行业之间系统性风险的溢出效应。本文分析了2006年1月4日至2016年7月1日的28个行业指数数据，基于GAS动态负荷因子的变化路径来刻画其相关关系，通过风险预期占比来研究行业间的风险溢出效应。研究表明，各个行业指数收益率之间存在较强的关联性。就单个行业来说，化工行业与其他行业关系最为不稳定。就金融与非金融行业而言，金融行业对非金融行业的影响较大且较为平稳。本文所得研究结果可以为投资者和风险管理者在进行决策时提供一定的指导。     

房地产价格波动与金融脆弱性:——基于中国的实证研究

最近的研究表明,房地产市场价格波动与金融脆弱性有着密切的联系。本文从房地产价格波动对金融脆弱性的影响这个视角,通过选取宏观经济面和微观金融两个层次的六个指标编制衡量我国脆弱性的指数,并建立向量自回归模型对房地产价格波动与金融脆弱性进行定量分析。实证结果表明:金融脆弱性与房地产价格波动存在着双向的因果关系;房地产价格波动在较短期内对金融脆弱性有一定负向影响,随后对其有正向影响;对于房地产价格波动的冲击,银行部门对其的反应更加敏感,且在较短期内房地产价格波动对宏观经济与银行部门有一定的积极影响,但是随后会加剧其脆弱性,且对宏观经济的影响程度相对较大。     

SOVEREIGNS VERSUS BANKS: CREDIT,CRISES, AND CONSEQUENCES

Two separate narratives have emerged in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis. One interpretation speaks of private financial excess and the key role of the banking system in leveraging and deleveraging the economy. The other emphasizes the public sector balance sheet and worries about the risks of lax fiscal policy. However, the two may interact in important and understudied ways. This paper examines the co‐evolution of public and private sector debt in advanced countries from 1870 to 2012. We find that in advanced economies financial crises are not preceded by public debt build‐ups nor are they more likely when public debt is high. However, history shows that high levels of public debt tend to exacerbate the effects of private sector deleveraging after financial crises. The economic costs of financial crises rise substantially if large private sector credit booms are unwound at times when the public sector has little capacity to pursue macroeconomic and financial stabilization.     

Financial literacy and its influence on internet banking behavior

This paper presents the survey results for financial literacy among Cypriot adults and reports their financial aptitude and behaviour. Additionally, it investigates for the first time the implications of financial literacy on respondents’ usage of digital financial services, particularly internet banking (i-banking). The focus is on Cyprus, a country that experienced an unprecedented financial crisis in 2013 that resulted in a bail-in and an enormous subsequent shrinkage of the banking sector. Cypriot consumers face an ever-increasing need for financial sophistication to effectively utilise and manage digital banking services. Neverthless, financial literacy is still low in Cyprus, whereby only 37.33% of survey respondents showed proficiency in financial knowledge. The findings indicate that there is a statistically positive relationship between the levels of financial knowledge and the frequency of i-banking use. More importantly, financially illiterate consumers appear to report far more often than their financially literate peers the lack of trust in i-banking, as well as a lack of self-confidence in financial and digital skills as the main reasons for not using this service. The findings highlight the interplay between financial literacy and digital proficiency, and their implication on individuals’ use of i-banking services.     

金融机构系统性风险溢出和系统性风险贡献——基于滚动窗口动态Copula模型双时变相依视角

本文以33家上市金融机构为研究样本，利用滚动窗口动态Copula模型对金融机构与金融系统之间相依关系的时变结构与时变系数进行双时变拟合，测度了金融机构的系统性风险溢出和贡献，从宏观、行业和机构层面分析了系统性风险贡献的影响因素。研究发现：证券类机构贡献了最多的系统性风险，而银行类机构对整个金融系统最具有潜在威胁性；金融机构与金融系统的相依结构决定了机构风险的外溢程度，而金融机构与金融系统之间相依程度以及系统自身波动性会显著影响整个系统的系统性风险；中国金融风险与财政风险之间存在相互转换的现象，化解系统性风险的根本办法是不断改善金融生态环境。本文可能的贡献有两点：第一，建立具有双时变特征的滚动窗口动态Copula模型，使模型设定和估计结果更接近真实情形；第二，从宏观、行业、机构三个层面分析机构系统性风险贡献的影响因素，这有助于从系统性风险产生的源头进行风险防控，供监管部门决策参考。     

A multivariate analysis of the financial characteristics of foreign and domestic banks in the UK

For the banking sector in the EU, the UK is one of the most important countries, since over a quarter of all banking assets in the EU are held in the UK and it is the largest single international banking centre, accounting for 20% of the world's cross-border lending. The UK banking sector has traditionally been one of the most open and it is characterized by a rapidly increasing foreign bank presence. Foreign banks account for 55% of the total assets of the UK banking sector. The objective of this paper is to investigate the performance of the banking sector in the UK focusing on the performance of the domestic banks as opposed to the performance of the foreign banks operating in the UK. For this purpose, a multivariate analysis is performed to identify the existing differences between the financial characteristics of domestic and foreign banks, considering profitability, liquidity, risk and efficiency factors. The data sample covers 26 domestic and 32 foreign banks operating in the UK over the period 1998–2001.     

基于LGCNET多层网络的中国A股上市公司系统性风险度量

系统性风险度量一直是金融风险领域的热点问题,但是对于复杂网络条件下的度量方法还缺乏深入研究。本文将滑动窗口分位数回归与局部高斯相关方法相结合,构建出一种全新的多层时变网络——局部高斯相关网络(Local Gaussian Correlation Network, LGCNET)。基于此方法,本文通过研究中国证券市场股票总体及尾部收益的非线性相关性,分析了2018年至2021年我国A股50家上市企业关联网络的演化特征,通过考察金融网络系统性风险水平在整个时间段内的变化情况,探究了新冠疫情及中美贸易摩擦期间上市公司网络的风险变化情况。结果表明：第一,金融与科技行业是网络节点的中心,与其他行业公司存在较高关联性,表明该类行业是风险传导的中心。第二,基建及银行类公司因为其市值高,在系统中的重要程度普遍较高;同时,尾部风险排名高于其市值排名的企业具有较大市场影响力和风险传导能力,也应该受到关注。第三,在系统层面,受信用风险加剧及中美贸易摩擦的影响,2018年整个网络系统普遍具有较高风险水平;但在2020年新冠疫情期间,国内系统性风险一直控制在较低水平。     

Digitalization in the financial industry: A contingency approach of entrepreneurial orientation and strategic vision on digitalization

Technology is rapidly changing the financial industry. Banks, in particular, are faced with a shift from traditional, interpersonal forms of service to digital financial services. These digital technologies are more and more becoming today’s standard in the banking sector, they challenge traditional business models, and they provide opportunities for banks to capitalize on. Building on the concept of entrepreneurial orientation (EO), this study of banks in Germany, Switzerland, and Liechtenstein aims at developing insights that explain how banks can use the tactics and strategies associated with EO to achieve superior performance in the digitalization age. The results from a survey in 102 banks show that: 1) banks that display high levels of EO report a higher level of performance, and 2) the relationship between a banks’ strategic vision on digitalization, and performance is moderated by EO. These results indicate that the sheer level of the digitalization of a bank does not affect profitability. Instead, in this time of technological change banks should develop a clear vision on digitalization that is characterized by innovation, being ahead of the competition, and a willingness to take risks.     

地方政府竞争、征税成本与金融资产质量

本文从理论和实证两方面探讨了在地方政府竞争背景下,地方政府征税成本对货币发行与地区金融资产质量的影响.本文的研究发现由于从金融部门荻取金融资源这一外部性很强的方式成为地方政府间竞争的重要手段,其后果将使地方政府特别是难以获得充足税收收入的地方政府更倾向于通过干预金融部门为公共投资融资,这构成了引起地方金融资产质量下降,金融生态环境难以改善的重要制度性原因.本文认为只有继续深化金融改革,提高金融部门独立性,并且使地方政府财权和事权相适应,才可能正确引导地方政府积极性.使地方财政和金融两方面都步入良性循环的轨道.     

Moving HRD from the periphery to the centre for transformation of an Indian public sector bank: Keynote address, 4th Asian conference of the academy of HRD

The transformation of Bank of Baroda, one of the largest commercial banks in the public sector in India, into a highly customer centric, technology driven and an innovative entity in retail and SME (small and medium enterprises) segments represents one of India's most remarkable success stories and one of the quickest turnarounds ever in public sector banking.

Known as an important player in commercial banking with international operations for several decades, the bank was gradually declining in recent years. In an environment of competition within the public sector as also due to entry of private banks with latest technology and young staff, the bank plunged into an unprecedented spiral of failing to innovate and adopt new technology.

Drastic action was required to regain its leadership position in the public sector space. Over the next one and a half years, the bank was back in reckoning and was firing on all cylinders. It retained its core business on track with a bang, restored its image as the most vibrant player among public sector banks (PSBs) through wide-ranging initiatives such as a logo change, hiring a cricketing icon as brand ambassador, heightened credit growth, improving the work culture, initiating many customer-centric initiatives and restoring the customer base, derisking the treasury portfolio, and winning several accolades and awards.

Today, Bank of Baroda has embarked upon more wide-ranging changes and a new vision to change the bank from a ‘vanilla banking’ entity to a ‘multi-specialist bank’. The author, who joined the bank as a HR specialist and eventually rose to become CEO of the bank, extensively used his HRD knowledge and academic background to initiate changes to harness energy in the bank's 40,000 staff to drive organization change.

Achieving a successful outcome seems to be far more difficult for a public sector bank with a legacy culture, high degree of unionization, poor compensation and aging staff. In spite of these constraining factors, the paper argues that it is through mobilizing the passion of people that leadership can transform organizations and put them on high growth trajectory.     

Entrepreneurial Cognition,Entrepreneurial Orientation and Firm Capability in the Creative Industries

Creative industries are firms which are characterized largely by the labour inputs of creative individuals, and surrounded by a degree of rhetoric as to their significance, but are a comparatively under‐researched sector. In this study we developed a research framework which integrated entrepreneurial cognition, entrepreneurial orientation and firm capabilities and explored the relationships between these variables, market conditions and the performance of small creative industry enterprises. The data suggest that high growth small firms are characterized by well‐developed internal capabilities allied to an entrepreneurial orientation and that the combination of the various sub‐attributes associated with each of these appear to be especially salient under conditions of intense competition. The policies, managerial and educational implications of the findings are discussed.     

我国金融机构的系统重要性评估:基于多元极值理论

2008年全球金融危机以后，金融机构的"大而不能倒"问题以及由此引发的系统性风险备受关注。本文基于多元EVT和Copula函数，建立了系统重要性的多角度评估指标体系，并对我国公开上市的26家金融机构的系统重要性做了一个综合评估。实证研究结果表明：（1）我国银行业在金融体系中占有主导地位，且银行业同质性较高，易诱发系统性风险；（2）规模不是系统重要性的唯一考量因素，其他因素也会对系统重要性产生显著影响，部分股份制商业银行和城商行也应被列为金融监管的重点关注对象。     

An empirical study of the relationship between a self-service technology investment and firm financial performance

More and more enterprises are taking advantage of self-service technologies (SSTs) in their customer-related operating activities, especially service firms. Although research on SSTs is prevalent, few studies have examined the impact of SSTs on firm financial performance. Given the growing importance of SSTs in the service industries in general and in the banking industry in particular, we therefore empirically examined the impacts of ATMs, one of the most widely accepted SSTs, on bank financial performance. Contrary to the existing literature, our results show ATMs have a positive relationship with profitability. However, we find no association between ATMs and growth performance.     

一个金融集聚动因的理论模型

因为金融服务业与其它产业有较大差异,所以传统的产业集聚模型并不适用于分析金融集聚.将金融服务业看作是特殊的产业,从产业集聚的角度,引入空间的概念,建立体现金融服务业特性的两区域理论模型,以此来讨论金融集聚的产生动因和可持续性.通过建立金融集聚的理论模型,揭示了地理因素所导致的机会成本、规模效益、金融服务产业在经济中所占份额和金融信息量是金融集聚的决定因素,并且产业集聚能够促进金融集聚的发生.同时提出两个区域由于地理因素所导致的机会成本增加倍数的比值可作为衡量中心区域是否为信息中心的指标.     

Do performance and environmental conditions act as barriers for cross-border banking in Europe?

This paper attempts to analyse whether banking technology and environmental conditions act as barriers for the entry of foreign banks in each European banking industry. We evaluate how the efficiency score of a representative commercial bank of a given European country changes if it decides to move abroad. To carry out this analysis, we use a sample of 700 banks belonging to 11 European countries. Countries are paired and each couple is studied by using four DEA production frontiers. These frontiers allow us to measure the technological and environmental gaps between the two countries considered and, based on them, to predict the new efficiency score of the representative bank of a country that decides to operate in a different country. The results indicate, as expected, that being technologically advanced appears to be a significant deterrent to foreign competition, and that adverse environmental conditions constitute a real barrier for cross-border banking activity. Additionally, the results suggest that host-nation banking performance is a good safeguard against cross-border competition.     

高管薪酬行业差异的实证分析

为什么高管薪酬具有行业差异,高管薪酬与哪些行业特征因素有关?本文以2001-2008年沪深两市非金融类上市公司为样本,对这些问题进行了实证分析。结果表明,产品市场竞争、资产专用性、盈利性、企业规模以及财务风险是影响行业高管薪酬的行业特征因素,在产品市场竞争越激烈、资产专用性越高、盈利性越好、企业规模越大以及财务风险越高的行业,高管获得的薪酬越高。成长性、经营风险、代理成本、技术水平等行业特征因素对行业高管薪酬没有显著影响。     

金融发展与基于水平创新的内生增长模型

基于中间投入品种类扩张的水平创新型内生增长模型,本文论证了金融发展影响一国长期经济增长的作用机制。对平衡增长路径的稳态增长率求解结果表明,稳态消费、产出增长率同时取决于研发、人力资本以及金融部门的产出效率;进一步比较静态分析表明较高的金融发展水平将提高稳态消费增长率,然而各产出效率参数对金融部门自身的稳态增长率影响是不确定的。     

Labour Market Segmentation in Central Europe during the First Years of Transition

The labour markets of the centrally planned economies of Central Europe (the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary and Poland) were divided into several segments. Using estimates taken from a two–regime model, we show that segmentation has persisted throughout the first years of systemic change. However, labour market segmentation has evolved to some extent. Firms that used to have priority now coexist alongside new activities within the primary segment (in particular, foreign firms and activities in the banking and financial sector). In this way, labour market segmentation results both in the appearance of new, formal institutions and the persistence of informal institutions left over from the past, owing to the growth in market uncertainty.