Areal Interpolation of Population Counts Using Pre-classified Land Cover Data

The need to combine spatial data representing sociodemographic information across incompatible spatial units is a common problem for demographers. A particular concern is computing small area trends when aggregation zone boundaries change during the trend interval. To that end, this study provides an example of dasymetric areal interpolation using the pre-classified land cover data available through the US Geological Survey’s National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) program. Areal interpolation of population estimates is preferable to traditional reaggregation techniques, and the use of land cover data as a weighting factor in interpolated estimation has been shown in earlier studies to be highly accurate. In this study, the NLCD data set performs well and, because it requires no classification, it compares favorably with other land cover data sets for areal interpolation when considered on the basis of accuracy, precision and ease of use.     

Mapping of population density

The Bureau of the Census listing of geographical coordinates of centroids of all enumeration districts together with population counts from the U. S. 1970 Census of Population was used to contruct via computer five nationwide geographical grids of population density with sector dimensions of 0.01, 0.02, 0.04, 0.1, and 0.25 degrees of latitude and longitude. The entire population of a district was assigned to a grid sector if the coordinates of the district centroid fell within the boundaries of the sector. The sectors were then rank-ordered according to population density, and listings were made of sector population, population density, geographical location, cumulative population, area of sector, and cumulative area. The five sets of data were synthesized into single equations describing population as a function of density in one case and of area in another. From these data it was found, for example, that about 800,000 people live in 19 sectors of 0.01-degree dimensions with a population density of 100,000 people per square mile or greater (nearly all in Manhattan); about 10 million live in 183 sectors of 0.02-degree dimensions with a population density of 23,000 per square mile or greater; and about half of the total U. S. population, that is, about 100 million people, reside within about 0.6 percent of the area of the United States, that is, within 20,000 square miles.Four representative displays of population density are shown for the Northeast Corridor, including isometric views and a contour map.     

中国人口空间分布形态模拟与预测--基于“五普”和“六普”的分县尺度人口密度研究

人口空间分布不平衡是一个普遍现象,但其“是否有分布和统计规律”的研究议题非常鲜见。通过中国第五次和第六次人口普查的分县尺度数据模拟出中国分县尺度人口密度的概率分布函数,并进行概率分布预测,分析了未来中国人口分布统计特征。主要结论有：模拟显示,中国分县尺度人口密度符合对数正态分布形态;以2000年分县尺度数据的前向（未来）预测检验和2010年数据的后向（过去）预测检验发现,“人均产出”和“地均产出”两个条件能很好地模拟未来人口密度的分布规律;以2010年分县尺度为基础预测了2020－2100年的中国人口密度概率分布特征和趋势,结果显示中国人口分布极化特征将持续加大,例如2050年,无人区（小于1人／平方公里）的县域比例将从当前的1.02％（29个）增加到4.49％（128个）,超高密集区（大于30000人／平方公里）的区县比例将从0.11％（3个）增加到3.93％（112个）。     

Cross-National Variation in Violent Crime Rates: Race, r-K Theory, and Income

Rushton's theory of r-K race differences was examined in relation to the rate of murder, rape, and serious assault per 100,000 population and Gross Domestic Product per Person for 74 countries from the 1993–1996 International Crime Statistics published by INTERPOL and the 1999 CIA World Fact Book. Each country was assigned to one of the three macro-races East Asian, European, and African. The results corroborated earlier findings that violent crime is lowest in East Asian countries, intermediate in European countries, and highest in African and in Black Caribbean countries. The median number of violent crimes per 100,000 population were: 7 East Asian countries—34; 45 European countries—42; and 22 African and Black Caribbean countries—149, respectively. The median Gross Domestic Product per Person was highest in East Asian countries ($12,600), intermediate in European countries ($7,400), and lowest in African and Black Caribbean countries ($1,900). Across the three population groups there was an ecological correlation of –.96 between crime and wealth (wealthier countries had less crime). Finer-grained analyses, however, found that while wealth was negatively related to crime across European or East Asian countries, it was positively related to crime for the African and Black Caribbean countries (i.e., the wealthier an African or Black Caribbean country, the greater its rate of violent crime). Future research needs to examine genetic factors in addition to cultural factors as well as their interactions.     

Geopolitical Aspects of Population in the Twenty‐First Century

Over the second half of the twentieth century rapid population growth in the less developed countries has redrawn the global demographic map. Many once‐poor countries have also experienced strong economic growth, which in combination with the demographic change has yielded marked shifts in the world's economic balance, with far‐reaching geopolitical implications. At the same time, low fertility in much of the developed world presages a future of population shrinkage, accompanied by pronounced population aging. In per capita terms, the economic advantages of the developed countries will likely persist for many years, but their actual and potential falls in population may accentuate their loss of relative economic power and eventually lead to marginalization of their international standing and influence. Preventing population shrinkage will be an urgent task for them, requiring either large‐scale immigration (likely to be ruled out) or raising the birth rate. Existing pro‐family policies have had at best modest effects on fertility levels. Two novel approaches are described that would plausibly have greater impact. One would counteract the disproportionate influence of older voters in the electorate by granting voting rights to all citizens, allowing custodial parents to vote on behalf of their children. The second would reform the public pension system to reestablish the link between the financial security of retired persons and the number of children they have raised to productive adulthood.     

Using remote sensing and census tract data to improve representation of population spatial distribution: case studies in the Brazilian Amazon

This work proposes a methodological approach to redistribute population data obtained from polygonal census tracts into population density surfaces (grids) based on a cell space database. The methodology was first developed for the municipality of Marabá, Pará state, in the Brazilian Amazon. We used a dasymetric method to eliminate areas of environmental restriction to human presence; then integrated environmental data indicative of human presence to generate a potential surface of population occurrence; and finally, census population count data were redistributed into cells. The methodology was subsequently adapted for 13 municipalities of the Sustainable Forests District (SFD) of BR-163, generating population distribution surfaces for 2000 and 2007. The evolution of the resident population over the SFD-BR163 showed spatial patterns compatible with the occupation process described in the literature and verified by fieldwork. To be applied over other areas, the proposed methodology must be adapted with local parameters but in this way, population density surfaces can be useful as an additional data source to study population and environment relationships.     

The effects and limits of territoriality on population regulation in grey red-backed voles,Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae

Summary The effects of breeding territoriality on the stability of grey red-backed vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus bedfordiae) populations were investigated on a control grid and a grid on which the voles were fed, in an outdoor enclosure in Hokkaido, Japan. Vole populations were monitored by live trapping from 1984 to 1986: (1) Population density was 2–7 times greater on the experimental grid to which food was added than on the control grid. Reproductive output was more closely associated with the difference in density between grids than survival or dispersal (immigration and emigration) rates. (2) The number of adult females and pregnancy rate of the experimental population were significantly greater than those of the control one. The difference in the number of adult females between the populations was greater than that in pregnancy rate. (3) The proportion of successful litters and the number of weanlings per litter were not significantly different between the control and experimental population. (4) Adult females held territories on both the control and experimental grid; they were spaced out more than would be expected from random occupation. The territories overlapped more on the experimental grid than on the control grid. (5) Mean territory size of adult females on the experimental grid was about half of that on the control grid. The territory size was correlated negatively with population density. (6) The proportion of trap sites that were used by adult females was significantly greater on the experimental grid than on the control grid. This suggests that adult females on the experimental grid used the area more extensively. This factor, in association with territory size and overlapping of territory, was also important in causing the difference in the number of adult females between the grids. (7) These results call into question the hypothesis that territoriality stabilizes the density in populations ofClethrionomys.     

ArcGIS地统计分析在甘肃省人口空间分布研究中的应用

利用2006年甘肃省各县级行政单元人口及面积数据,通过GIS技术提取县级行政中心的几何中心,通过地统计分析方法建立了甘肃省县级行政单元人口密度表面模型,在此基础上进行了人口密度空间分布相关与变异分析。结果表明：甘肃省2006年人口密度的空间分布极度不均衡,为高狭峰分布;在东西方向上,自东向西人口密度增加,在南北方向上,拟合曲线呈倒U型,人口密度的空间分布南北低,中部高;人口密度空间分布具有圈层结构,在人口高密度区域外测,人口密度由高到低可以分成6个圈层,每一个圈层大致沿北西一南东方向延伸。     

Social and Economic Wellbeing in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin: Building an Enlarged Human Development Indicator

This paper calculates a human Wellbeing Composite Index (WCI) for 42 countries, belonging to the European Economic Space, North Africa and the Middle East, as an alternative to the shortcomings of other well-known measures of socio-economic development (i.e. Gross Domestic Product per head and Human Development Index). To attain this goal, different data envelopment analysis (DEA) models are used as an aggregation tool for seven selected socio-economic variables which correspond to the following wellbeing dimensions: income per capita, environmental burden of disease, income inequality, gender gap, education, life expectancy at birth and government effectiveness. The use of DEA allows avoiding the subjectivity that would be involved in the exogenous determination of weights for the variables included in WCI. The aim is to establish a complete ranking of all countries in the sample, using a three-step process, with the last step consisting in the use of a model that combines DEA and compromise programming, and permits to obtain a set of common weights for all countries in the analysis. The results highlight the distance that still separates Southern Mediterranean countries from the benchmark levels established by some European countries, and also point to the main weaknesses in individual countries’ performance. Nordic countries, plus Switzerland, top the list of best performers, while Mauritania, Libya and Syria appear at the bottom.     

The Effect of Social Capital on Health Among European Older Adults: An Instrumental Variable Approach

One of the key policy question for an ageing population is the identifications of the factors which influence health. Very recently, an increasing interest on social capital has developed and, surprisingly, not much is known for the European population. This study analyzes the effect of structural social capital on health (measured as self-perceived health) of the individuals aged 60 or more residing in European countries. The sample comes from the fourth wave of the survey on health and retirement in Europe. We use an instrumental variables approach in order to account for the reverse causality between social capital and health. We found that structural social capital exerts a positive effect preventing people to suffer of a poor self-perceived effect. Results are robust to different estimation methods.     

Is Lowest‐Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?

In 2001, more than half of Europe's population lived in countries with a total fertility rate (TFR) at or below 1.3. Use of the adjusted TFR proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney, which takes into account the effects of the ongoing fertility postponement, changes the European fertility map considerably. All 27 countries analyzed had adjusted TFRs in 1995–2000 above 1.4. Thus, the “lowest‐low” fertility in Europe may be interpreted as a temporary consequence of the increasing age at motherhood. However, substantial regional differences in fertility level across Europe persist even when the differential pace of fertility postponement is taken into account. The estimated adjusted TFRs in Europe (1.63) and in the 25‐member European Union (1.71) contrast with the TFR levels of 1.40 and 1.46, respectively. These seemingly small differences have vastly different implications in terms of the potential long‐term pace of population decline.     

European Demographic Forecasts Have Not Become More Accurate Over the Past 25 Years

Nowadays, demographers, population statisticians, and population forecasters have richer data, more refined theories of demographic behavior, and more sophisticated methods of analysis than they had two or three decades ago. This scientific progress should have made it easier to predict demographic behavior. But analyses of the errors in older forecasts show that demographic forecasts published by statistical agencies in 14 European countries have not become more accurate over the past 25 years. The findings demonstrate that scientific progress in population studies during the previous two to three decades has not kept up with the trend toward less predictable demographic behavior of populations in European countries. There is no reason to be more optimistic about US Census Bureau forecasts. Population forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, hence should be couched in probabilistic terms.     

Comparison of Four Methods for Estimating Complete Life Tables from Abridged Life Tables Using Mortality Data Supplied to EUROCARE-3

ABSTRACT

To estimate mortality due to cancer, it is necessary to have mortality data by year of age in the population of cancer patients. When such data are not available, estimating one-year (complete) life tables from five-year (abridged) life tables is necessary. Four such methods—Elandt–Johnson, Kostaki, Brass logit, and Akima spline methods—are compared with respect to 782 empirical complete life tables pertaining to 19 European regions or countries, from 1954 to 2000. Abridged life tables are first derived from the empirical ones, then used to produce one-year-life tables by each of the four methods. These reconstituted complete life tables are then compared with the empirical complete life tables. Among the four methods, the Elandt–Johnson demographic method produces the best reconstitutions at adult ages, specifically those ages at which observed cancer survival needs to be corrected.     

Can Reporting Heterogeneity Explain Differences in Depressive Symptoms Across Europe?

Depression is one of the leading causes of disability in the developed world. Previous studies have shown varying depression prevalence rates between European countries, and also within countries, between socioeconomic groups. However, it is unclear whether these differences reflect true variations in prevalence or whether they are attributable to systematic differences in reporting styles (reporting heterogeneity) between countries and socioeconomic groups. In this study, we examine the prevalence of three depressive symptoms (mood, sleeping and concentration problems) and their association with educational level in 10 European countries, and examine whether these differences can be explained by differences in reporting styles. We use data from the first and second waves of the COMPARE study, comprising a sub-sample of 9,409 adults aged 50 and over in 10 European countries covered by the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. We first use ordered probit models to estimate differences in the prevalence of self-reported depressive symptoms by country and education. We then use hierarchical ordered probit models to assess differences controlling for reporting heterogeneity. We find that depressive symptoms are most prevalent in Mediterranean and Eastern European countries, whereas Sweden and Denmark have the lowest prevalence. Lower educational level is associated with higher prevalence of depressive symptoms in all European regions, but this association is weaker in Northern European countries, and strong in Eastern European countries. Reporting heterogeneity does not explain these cross-national differences. Likewise, differences in depressive symptoms by educational level remain and in some regions increase after controlling for reporting heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that variations in depressive symptoms in Europe are not attributable to differences in reporting styles, but are instead likely to result from variations in the causes of depressive symptoms between countries and educational groups.     

西汉时期我国人口分布空间格局及其成因探讨

在数字化西汉地图的基础上,结合西汉人口数据,运用GIS软件完成西汉时期人口密度分布和分级图。得出西汉时期我国人口分布空间格局是人口多集中于黄河中下游地区,南方人口较稀少的结论。并在此基础上对其成因进行探讨,西汉时期人口分布的空间格局是在自然因素、政治因素和历史因素的共同作用下形成的。     

A cohort analysis of the fertility of the July 1 People's Commune in Shanghai, County]

The survey was conducted in February-March 1981. The population of this commune at the end of 1980 was 18,608. The cultural and educational levels, economic condition, and work in family planning of this commune form a typical example among numerous similar communes in Shanghai County. The birthrate, natural growth rate, and average fertility rate began to decline in the later half of 1950s and reached the lowest level in 1974. The survey shows a delay in the marriage age. The fertility rate also dropped by 21.31% from 1963 to 1980. The average fertility rate dropped by 162.73% from 1963 to 1980. Among the women of childbearing age, 99% of them have a knowledge of birth control measures, 95% of them have used them before, and 78% are currently using them. All these figures show that the work in family planning in the commune has reached a high level by world standards. 3 factors which have a strong impact on fertility are: the economic and educational level, formation of population elements, and family planning work. A rise in the standard of living and improvement in education normally leads to late marriage and a decline in fertility. An increase in the number of women of childbearing age causes a rise in fertility. The population growth after 1974 is a reflection of this situation. The survey shows that the decline in fertility before 1973 was caused mainly by family planning work.     

Advocating "one couple with one child" being an optimal choice]

Zero population growth within the next 5 years in China would be reached only if many couples were not allowed to have their own child. On the other hand, if every couple were allowed to have 2 children China's population would reach 1500 million within the next 50 years. It seems advisable to advocate the "1 couple 1 child" idea; couples will have to keep in mind both the national interest and the communist ideology; social welfare to assure good living conditions for the old people will relieve the worries of parents with 1 child only. Most people are willing to follow this decision made by the Communist Party; many people declare their willingness to stick by this rule during their wedding ceremony; many couples send back their permit to have a second child, and many women choose abortion when pregnant with a second permitted pregnancy. By the end of 1979 the proportion of "1 couple 1 child" couples was 90% in many large cities; people realize that the practice of "1 couple 1 child" is the best assurance for the future of the country and of their children. This policy will not result in aging of the population, lack of manpower and shortage of soldiers; even if birth rate were 1% in 1985 the proportion of older people for the next 25 years will still be lower than that in European countries. The problem of aging of the population will not occur in this century, and population policies can always be adjusted when needed. Today's problem is to control population through the "1 couple 1 child" policy, even if it may result in many lonely old people, which is a lesser problem than too many people. Even if China has reduced its population growth by 10 million births each year from 1970 to 1979, the necessity to control population growth is still present, in the interest of the country and economic development.     

Using stylized agent-based models for population–environment research: a case study from the Galápagos Islands

Agent-based models (ABMs) are powerful tools for population–environment research but are subject to trade-offs between model complexity and abstraction. This study strikes a compromise between abstract and highly specified ABMs by designing a spatially explicit, stylized ABM and using it to explore policy scenarios in a setting that is facing substantial conservation and development challenges. Specifically, we present an ABM that reflects key Land Use/Land Cover dynamics and livelihood decisions on Isabela Island in the Galápagos Archipelago of Ecuador. We implement the model using the NetLogo software platform, a free program that requires relatively little programming experience. The landscape is composed of a satellite-derived distribution of a problematic invasive species (common guava) and a stylized representation of the Galápagos National Park, the community of Puerto Villamil, the agricultural zone, and the marine area. The agent module is based on publicly available data and household interviews and represents the primary livelihoods of the population in the Galápagos Islands—tourism, fisheries, and agriculture. We use the model to enact hypothetical agricultural subsidy scenarios aimed at controlling invasive guava and assess the resulting population and land cover dynamics. Findings suggest that spatially explicit, stylized ABMs have considerable utility, particularly during preliminary stages of research, as platforms for (1) sharpening conceptualizations of population–environment systems, (2) testing alternative scenarios, and (3) uncovering critical data gaps.