Decomposition of differences in health expectancy by cause

Health expectancy is a widely used measure for monitoring trends in the health of a population and assessing differences in health among population groups. However, no decomposition method is available to examine the contribution made by causes of death and disability to differences in health expectancy among population groups or periods. We present a method for decomposing differences in health expectancy, based on the Sullivan method. This method is an extension of the decomposition method for life expectancy developed by Arriaga. We illustrate the method and its added value by decomposing male-female differences in health expectancy for the Netherlands.     

[A simplification of the iteration method of estimating China's midyear population for 1981].]

An iteration method is used to estimate China's 1981 midyear population, given census data on births and deaths in 1981 and midyear population for 1982. The author mathematically proves the convergence of the iteration method and outlines a simplified method, which is shown to be as accurate as the conventional iteration method.     

间接估计技术在特殊区域人口预测中的应用——以杭州经济技术开发区为例

特殊区域的人口预测,需要用特殊的方法。结合特殊区域人口的个性特点,创造性地应用间接估计技术进行人口预测,是人口学的一项重要任务。对我国经济技术开发区人口发展进行科学预测,对促进开发区社会经济持续、稳定、协调发展具有十分重要的战略意义。杭州经济技术开发区具有独特的个性,但应用间接估计技术进行特殊区域人口预测的原理和方法,却有普遍的意义。结果表明,只要方法得当,参数科学,特殊区域的人口发展态势和规律同样可以进行科学的预测,为特殊区域规划建设提供重要的依据。     

Making the Housing Unit Method Work: An Evaluation of 2010 Population Estimates in Florida

The housing unit (HU) method—in which population estimates are derived from estimates of occupied HUs—is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. It is widely used because it is conceptually simple, can utilize a wide variety of data sources, can be applied at virtually any level of geography, and often produces reliable estimates. Yet the HU method is more nearly a general approach to population estimation than it is a specific methodology. In this paper, we describe and evaluate several data sources and estimation techniques that can be used in applying the HU method. Using a set of county and subcounty estimates produced by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida for April 1, 2010, we analyze errors by population size and growth rate, calculate errors for each of the three components of the HU method, and investigate the accuracy of estimates based on several different data sources and estimation techniques. We compare the accuracy of the 2010 estimates with previous BEBR estimates and estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau. We conclude that although some data sources and estimation techniques work better than others, the HU method can be tailored to produce reliable population estimates for a wide variety of geographic areas.     

Lessons from stochastic small-area population projections: the case of Waikato subregions in New Zealand

Subnational population projections in New Zealand by means of the conventional deterministic cohort-component method have had a tendency to be conservative: underprojecting fast-growing populations and overprojecting slow-growing ones. In this paper we use a stochastic population projection method as an alternative. We generate population projections for five demographically distinct administrative areas within the Waikato region of New Zealand: Hamilton City, Franklin District, Thames-Coromandel District, Otorohanga District and South Waikato District. The results are compared to official subnational deterministic projections. The accuracy of subnational population projections in New Zealand is strongly affected by the instability of migration as a component of population change. Differently from the standard cohort-component method, in which net migration levels are projected, the key parameters of our method are age-gender-area specific probabilistic net migration rates. Generally, the identified and modelled uncertainty makes the traditional ‘mid-range’ scenario of subnational deterministic projections of limited use for policy analysis or planning beyond a relatively short projection horizon. We find that the projected range of rates of population growth is wider for smaller regions and/or regions more strongly affected by net migration. Directions for further development of the methodology are suggested.     

Estimating historic population data for small geographies using census housing information

Historical population data for small geographies (e.g. blocks, block-groups, and census tracts) are not available for periods earlier than 1980. In this research note, we propose a geographically-constrained housing unit method (GHUM) to estimate historic population for small geographies using housing age data available in the 1980–2000 censuses. The GHUM is a two-stage method. The first stage follows a traditional housing unit method and provides initial household and group quarter population estimates for small geographies. The second stage takes advantage of the availability of historic data for larger geographies (e.g. counties, states) to adjust the first stage estimates and to provide final estimates. The GHUM is used to estimate 1940–1990 county population and census tract population in Kentucky. The quality of the population estimates is assessed. A two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test indicates that these estimates are statistically reliable at the 10 % significance level.     

城市流动人口计划生育管理的社区服务模式

我国目前对流动人口实行的防范式行政管理方法,在实际中不易落实,且易引起流动人口的排斥抵触情绪。因此必须针对流动人口的特点,采用计生社区服务模式为主的工作方式,转交流动人口的传统生育观。流动人口计生社区服务模式应着重:以经常性的宣传教育服务为宗旨;以生产、生活、生育服务为主线;注重社区服务的福利性质;以促进城市居民与流动人口沟通为目的。流动人口计生社区服务对于流动人口本身和社区计划生育而言具有很多优势,是以后流动人口计划生育管理服务的发展方向。     

Estimating Interregional Population And Migration Operators From Interregional Population Distributions

A common constraint in analyses of interregional population systems is the absence of reliable data for describing the behavior of the fundamental components of population change. As a result, demographers frequently have had to rely on crudely constructed measures of natural increase and net migration.Recent efforts to express interregional population growth in matrix form, however, suggest a method for estimating the regime of growth of a multiregional system solely on the basis of historical data on interregional population distributions. This paper describes and illustrates such a method. Since the results are largely unsatisfactory, a large portion of the paper is devoted to an analysis of the conditions leading to the poor performance of the method, by evaluating, in particular, alternative estimators and by considering the possibility of "data smoothing."     

中国西北地区人口承载力及承载压力分析

本文从水资源角度出发,通过一定的计量分析,探讨了西北地区的水资源人口承载力及其动态变化,并结合人口规模预测,进一步研究了西北地区人口对资源和环境的压力状况。研究发现,西北地区人口承载力较低,但今后会进一步有所上升,与人口变动相比,人口超载现象将始终存在,但是程度将略有降低。     

我国人口发展的指标体系建设及综合评价

本文根据国内外评价人口发展的运动历程和变化趋势,以及国家人口发展战略的指导思想,从人自身发展、人口与经济社会和人口与资源环境三个大方面构建了我国人口发展的综合指标评价体系。综合指标体系包括一级指标体系3项、二级指标体系8项、三级指标体系22项、四级指标体系42项。并在常用综合评价方法的基础上,利用组合评价分析法对我国2008年人口发展做了综合评价,有效地克服了客观评价法和主观评价法的不足之处,得出了较为可信的综合评价值。     

Optimal estimate of population age structure with varying vital rates

The author presents a method for estimating the age distribution of a population under varying vital statistics. "Some mathematical aspects of the method, as well as its applicability, will be discussed and numerical simulation will be run to illustrate the results and to compare the method with the traditional estimate of stable population theory...."     

基于模糊ISODATA方法的人口素质状况聚类分析——以江苏省为例

人口素质对社会发展具有重要的推动和支撑作用,而社会发展又对人口素质提出新的要求。本文以人口素质的相关理论为指导,以人口素质发展状况为研究对象,在比较系统地探讨了人口素质内涵的基础上,构建了人口素质测评指标体系。然后,运用模糊ISODATA方法对江苏省13个省辖市的人口素质状况进行聚类,划分出三类区域,并从单项指标的角度展开区域差异分析。最后从经济和教育两方面对区域差异的原因作了进一步的讨论和分析。     

Some fundamental problems in population projection]

When family planning work in China developed, during the 1970's, the work of population projection also expanded. Population projections were done for China and its regions beginning in 1974 and remains a relatively new activity. Some question its validity, while others speculate about its methods and beleive only higher mathematics can be used, but this is all due to a lack of understanding of the nature of population forecasting. It is possible to predict population because if a current population situation and its changes are known, population of a particular future period can be projected e.g. for each year that is lived, a person will be 1 year older. And, population changes are primarily based on changes in births and deaths. These changes in turn are influenced by social and economic factors. Population projection is basically a forecasting of a certain period's total population, age and sex structure, the number of births and deaths, and migration. Different methods and formulas can be used to measure different population indicators, but all methods utilize comparisons. There are basically 2 methods for projecting total population: 1) the "direct method" regards total population as a quantity that itself changes and 2) the "separate factor method" breaks down total population into births, deaths, and migration. In the past, population projection has focused on the natural development of population which can be called "uncontrolled" because it makes "passive measurements" of possible population developments. In China, however, population projection is "controlled." Although it too measures future population developments, China's projections are not based on natural developments, but on definite population policies and estimates of results of family planning efforts.     

An Evaluation of Population Estimates in Florida: April 1, 2000

The housing unit (HU) method is the most commonly used method for making small-area population estimates in the United States. These estimates are used for a wide variety of budgeting, planning, and analytical purposes. Given their importance, periodic evaluations of their accuracy are essential. In this article, we evaluate the accuracy of a set of HU population estimates for counties and subcounty areas in Florida, as of April 1, 2000. We investigate the influence of differences in population size and growth rate on estimation errors; compare the accuracy of several alternative techniques for estimating each of the major components of the HU method; compare the accuracy of 2000 estimates with that of estimates produced in 1980 and 1990; compare the accuracy of HU population estimates with that of estimates derived from other estimation methods; consider the role of professional judgment and the use of averaging in the construction of population estimates; and explore the impact of controlling one set of estimates to another. Our results confirm a number of findings that have been reported before and provide empirical evidence on several issues that have received little attention in the literature. We conclude with several observations regarding future directions in population estimation research.     

基于GIS和SPSS的聊城市人口压力空间格局研究

根据影响聊城市人口压力的内在矛盾和外在因素。确定了聊城市人口压力评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法计算了人口压力指数,再通过聚类分析等方法,定量分析了1998—2007年聊城市人口压力的空间格局。借助Ar-cGIS9．2软件采用格网法对聊城市人口压力空间格局进行制图显示。结果表明。1998—2007年。聊城市人口压力沿东北一西南轴线呈现明显的地域特征,在空间上出现聚集效应,高唐县人1：1压力指数在_0．14-0．22之间,人口压力适中,人口与社会经济、资源环境发展协调;东昌府区、临清市、茌平县和东阿县人口压力指数在0．1．0．99之间。人口压力较小。人口承栽力较强;冠县、阳谷县和莘县人口压力指数在0．79—1．68之间,人口压力较大,人口与社会经济、资源环境等发展不协调。这种空间分布格局与各地区的有形资源和无形资源都有关系。无须资源的影响比重越来越大。     

SMPD Scenarios of Spatial Distribution of Human Population in China

Three scenarios of spatial distribution of human population in China are developed in the years 2010 and 2020, respectively by means of the method of surface modeling of population distribution (SMPD). Each one of the SMPD scenarios is defined as a plausible alternative future under particular assumptions of elevation, water system, net primary productivity (NPP), urbanization, transport infrastructure development, and population growth. The SMPD scenarios show that if population could freely migrate within the whole China, the balanced ratios of population in the western region, the middle region and the eastern region to total population in the whole China would be 16%, 33% and 52%, respectively.     

Back Projection and Inverse Projection: Members of a Wider Class of Constrained Projection Models

Constrained by estimated population totals and observed totals of births and deaths, estimates of age-structures from inverse projection have been widely used in historical demography. Back Projection attempted, by using hypothetical constraints on net-migration, to estimate the population totals as well, and has been used to derive ‘censuses’ for England from 1541 to 1871. A wider formulation, called Generalised Inverse Projection, is proposed in this paper, which replaces back-projection and establishes its relation to Inverse Projection more clearly. Under the same assumptions as back projection, but using the new method, the estimates for England are virtually unchanged. This new method is capable of performing population projections, subject to a wide variety of hypothetical and empirical constraints, for contemporary as well as historical data.     

The Accuracy of Age-specific Population Estimates for Small Areas in Britain

Population estimates play an important role in the allocation of resources at many levels of government and commerce but little is known about the accuracy of age-specific population estimates. Such knowledge is crucial, as resource allocation is often targeted at populations of particular age, and decisions need to be based on the reliability of the estimates. This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group. Local census methods are found to be generally superior, but a low-cost apportionment method, if implemented well, may be as effective.     

人口增长与经济发展相互作用机制及实证分析——基于水平VAR的Granger因果分析方法和协整技术

本文首先分析了人口数量与经济发展相互作用机制,从环境承载力角度分析了一定数量的人口是经济发展的必要条件,而当社会生产力发展到在特定空间内相对稳定时,若不断增长的人口数量超过社会经济发展的需求与承受能力,这时经济发展就要受到人口增长的困扰。其次本论文运用Granger因果分析方法和协整技术研究了中国人口增长率与经济发展水平之间相互作用数量关系。结果为:在短期内,在5%的显著性水平下,人口增长率对经济发展水平没有显著影响,而经济发展水平却对人口增长率有显著影响;从长期看,人口增长率与经济发展水平之间具有显著的负相关关系。最后得出结论:只有控制人口增长(尤其是农村人口增长),才能促进经济发展;而只有促进经济发展,才能更好的控制人口增长,两者相辅相成。     

我国在业人口受教育程度分析

本文依据我国1990年第四次和2000年第五次人口普查的数据资料,运用定性和定量的方法,对在业人口受教育程度的总体水平、分性别、分职业等方面进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策思考。