Economic status proxies in studies of fertility in developing countries: Does the measure matter?

This paper investigates the consequences of using different economic status proxies on the estimated impact of economic status and other determinants of fertility. Using micro survey data from Ghana and Peru, we find that the proxies for income that best predict fertility are a principal components score of the ownership of consumer durable goods and a simple sum of ownership of these durable goods. Furthermore, the choice of the proxy generally has a minor influence on the predicted effects of the control variables. We compare the results from using a restricted set of proxies, such as those available in the Demographic and Health Surveys, with the results obtained using a lengthier set of proxies. Our results suggest implications beyond fertility analyses by providing researchers with an awareness of the sensitivity of microanalyses to the treatment of economic status. Our results also suggest practical recommendations for the collection of survey data.     

Socioeconomic determinants of fertility in China

This paper reports the first set of estimates of the socioeconomic determinants of fertility in China using micro-data available from China's 1985 In-Depth Fertility Survey. Based on existing microeconomic theories of fertility, an econometric model was specified and estimated. The results indicate that even after age, marriage duration and child mortality are taken into account, education level of the woman, occupational status of the husband, the place of former and current residence, sex preference for boys, durable goods ownership, and family structure affect fertility. For the middle cohorts (aged 25–34 years in 1985), the relationship between fertility and education takes the form of a J-shaped curve.This paper is drawn from Essay II of my Ph. D. thesis submitted to McMaster University. I am grateful to Frank Denton and Byron Spencer for discussion in connection with the thesis and comments on earlier versions of this paper, to Ronald Lee, the external examiner of the thesis, for many insightful comments, and to Martin Dooley, Lonnie Magee and two anonymous referees for very helpful suggestions. I would also like to thank International Statistical Institute Research Center for supplying the data used in this study.     

Fertility and income,consumption aspirations,and child quality standards

Data from a 1975 national survey of the American population were used to investigate the relationships between childbearing and aspirations for consumption goods, child quality standards, and income. The data were consistent with the hypothesis that preferences for child quality are negatively related to fertility. Aspirations for consumer goods which are related to the home were not found to be negatively related to childbearing while aspirations for nonhome goods were negatively related to fertility as hypothesized. Several indicators of income and subjective economic well-being were examined, and the overall pattern of results was not supportive of the hypothesized effect of income on fertility.     

Socio-economic status, permanent income, and fertility: a latent-variable approach

This paper examines how permanent income and other components of socio-economic status (SES) are related to fertility in less developed countries. Because permanent income cannot be measured directly, we employ a latent-variable method. We compare our results with those of the more common proxy-variable method and investigate the consequences of not accounting for measurement error. Using data from Ghana and Peru, we find that permanent income has a large, negative influence on fertility and that research must take the latent nature of permanent income into account to uncover its influence. Controlling for measurement error in the proxies for permanent income can also lead to substantial changes in the estimated effects of control variables. Finally, we examine which of the common proxies for permanent income most closely capture the concept. The results have implications beyond this specific dependent variable, providing evidence on the sensitivity of microanalyses to the treatment of long-term economic status.     

Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure

In the literature on trade and development, fertility and trade have been widely discussed as two separate economic forces. However, an important recent contribution connects these two and suggests that international trade between developed and developing countries has an asymmetric effect on the demand for human capital. The asymmetry leads to a decline in fertility rates in developed countries and an increase in these rates in developing countries. We provide additional comprehensive empirical evidence in support of this novel hypothesis. Our findings suggest that countries that export skill-intensive manufacturing goods experience a decline in fertility rates, whereas in countries that export primary, low-skill-intensive goods, fertility rates are affected positively. Further, our findings indicate that the negative influence of manufacturing exports on fertility holds primarily and most strongly for middle-income countries where structural modernization and a growing manufacturing-intensive export sector is observed.     

Economic motives for family limitation

Abstract Taiwan can boast one of the most rapid rates of economic development in the world over the past 20 years. Taiwan is also in the midst of the demographic transition. The nature of the connection between economic development and the onset and progress of the fertility decline is far from clear, however. Rather than explore the relation between income and fertility change, this paper will be concerned with some of the economic motivations which may be responsible for fertility decline during the demographic transition. Inquiries in this area have been handicapped by having to rely on aggregative or on household data which included only a very limited set of economic variables (other than income) along with demographic data. In order to re-examine the linkages between economic change and fertility change at the family level, a special survey was conducted in Taiwan in 1969. While recognizing that economic factors are not wholly, perhaps not even primarily, responsible for the lowering of the birth rate, the central interest of this paper is the complex of cost and benefit considerations which may contribute to a decline of the rate, using the new data for Taiwan.     

Disease risk and fertility: evidence from the HIV/AIDS pandemic

A fundamental question about human behavior is whether fertility responds to disease risk. The standard economic theory of household fertility decision-making generates ambiguous predictions, and the response has large implications for human welfare. We examine the fertility response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic using national household survey data from 14 sub-Saharan African countries. Instrumental variable (IV) estimates using distance to the origin of the pandemic suggest that HIV/AIDS has increased the total fertility rate (TFR) and the number of surviving children. These results rekindle the debate about the fertility response to disease risk, particularly the HIV/AIDS pandemic, and highlight the question of whether the HIV/AIDS pandemic has reduced GDP per capita.     

The Quality of Male Fertility Data in Major U.S. Surveys

Researchers continue to question fathers’ willingness to report their biological children in surveys and the ability of surveys to adequately represent fathers. To address these concerns, this study evaluates the quality of men’s fertility data in the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79 and NLSY97) and in the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Comparing fertility rates in each survey with population rates based on data from Vital Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, we document how the incomplete reporting of births in different surveys varies according to men’s characteristics, including their age, race, marital status, and birth cohort. In addition, we use Monte Carlo simulations based on the NSFG data to demonstrate how birth underreporting biases associations between early parenthood and its antecedents. We find that in the NSFG, roughly four out of five early births were reported; but in the NLSY79 and NLSY97, almost nine-tenths of early births were reported. In all three surveys, incomplete reporting was especially pronounced for nonmarital births. Our results suggest that the quality of male fertility data is strongly linked to survey design and that it has implications for models of early male fertility.     

The Mexican Drug War and Early-Life Health: The Impact of Violent Crime on Birth Outcomes

This study examines the relationship between exposure to violent crime in utero and birth weight using longitudinal data from a household survey conducted in Mexico. Controlling for selective migration and fertility, the results suggest that early gestational exposure to the recent escalation of the Mexican Drug War is associated with a substantial decrease in birth weight. This association is especially pronounced among children born to mothers of low socioeconomic status and among children born to mothers who score poorly on a mental health index.     

Total fertility rate,women's education,and women's work: What are the relationships?

This paper presents the results of a statistical study, using cross-national data, on the relationships between total fertility rate and women's level of education and women's labor participation. Aggregate data on seventy-one countries were collected from numerous sources. Eight variables related to women's fertility, mortality, economic status, labor participation, and education are analyzed using multivariate linear regression analyses. Two models are considered. The first model regresses five variables on total fertility rate: per capita Cross National Product (GNP), percentage of women ages 15 to 19 who are married, female life expectancy at birth, calories available as a percentage of need, and percentage of married couples using contraception. The second model includes two additional regressors: the average number of years of schooling for women, and the percentage of women in the labor force. These seven variables are regressed on total fertility rate. Although the data are crude, the results of the analyses suggest that the model which incorporates women's level of education and women's labor participation captures the data better than the smaller model. The full model suggests that the percentage of women in the labor force is directly related to total fertility rate, whereas the average number of years of education for women is indirectly related to total fertility rate.     

Education,employment, and fertility in Kinshasa and prospects for changes in reproductive behavior

This paper examines fertility behavior of women in Kinshasa, Zaire's capital city with a population of roughly four million. We look at relationships linking women's education, employment, and fertility behavior (children ever born, age at first marriage, contraception, abortion, breastfeeding, and postpartum abstinence), using data from a 1990 survey of reproductive-age women. Other things equal, there are significant differences by educational attainment and by modern sector employment in lifetime fertility and in most of the proximate determinants as well. The results suggest that modern contraception and abortion are alternative fertility control strategies in Kinshasa, with abortion appearing to play an important role in contributing to the observed fertility differentials by education and employment. The dramatic increases that have taken place in women's access to secondary and higher education are likely to reduce fertility in the future, while the effects of Zaire's current economic and political crisis are uncertain. Our findings are consistent with some of the arguments of Caldwell et al. (1992) on a new type of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. If Zaire seeks to lower fertility, policy efforts should be made to soften the impact of economic crisis on school enrollments and enhance opportunities for young women to remain in school, at least well into the secondary level. Policy should also seek to promote more effective marketing and delivery of modern family planning services, so as to induce women to substitute modern contraception for abortion as a means of controlling their fertility.     

Variety expansion and fertility rates

To investigate how fertility rates interrelate with the modern economy, we construct a simple model in which variety expansion of consumption goods reduces fertility rates. In our model, variety expansion reduces the relative price of a composite of differentiated goods compared to child-rearing costs. Thus, parents raise the expenditure share for differentiated goods and lower the number of children. We show that this model can be applied to a growth model in which economic growth progresses with variety expansion of consumption goods and fertility rates decrease with economic growth. Thus, we show a new mechanism for fertility decline, and this mechanism can be applied to a growth model.     

Socioeconomic Classification of the Working-Age Brazilian Population: A Joint Latent Class Analysis Using Social Class and Asset-Based Perspectives

This paper presents and applies a methodology of socioeconomic classification that integrates asset- and social class approaches. We employ data from the 2013 Brazilian National Household Survey and use latent class analysis to identify clusters and classify the working population. With regard to social class the Brazilian occupations are classified based on the European Socioeconomic Classification (ESeC) schema and an indicator of employment status. As for household wealth, we use the items related to household condition, ownership of durable goods and access to public services with the highest discriminatory power. We also make use of variables that account for the Brazilian spatial and socio-demographic heterogeneity. We found four clusters which we term latent socioeconomic stratum (LSeS). When compared we found an ordered pattern from the best-off LSeS (1) to the worst-off (4) with respect to household wealth and ESeC classes. Nevertheless, although the class composition of each LSeS reveals a distinct concentration of specific ESeC classes, all classes are present in each LSeS. Controlling for social class, differences in household wealth are more marked between LSeS than between social classes within the same LSeS. Hence, the methodology unveils the latent socioeconomic strata, reveals a class schema for each stratum and points out potential stratum fractions within them. The results were validated using variables external to the model, namely household food security status and years of schooling. The external validation revealed the same ordered pattern and the presence of stratum fractions.     

Assessing Asset Indices

The use of asset indices in welfare analysis and poverty targeting is increasing, especially in cases in which data on expenditures are unavailable or hard to collect. We compare alternative approaches to welfare measurement. Our analysis shows that inferences about inequalities in education, health care use, fertility, and child mortality, as well as labor market outcomes, are quite robust to the economic status measure used. Different measures—most significantly per capita expenditures versus the class of asset indices—do not, however, yield identical household rankings. Two factors stand out in predicting the degree of congruence in rankings. First is the extent to which expenditures can be explained by observed household and community characteristics. Rankings are most similar in settings with small transitory shocks to expenditure or with little random measurement error in expenditure. Second is the extent to which expenditures are dominated by individually consumed goods, such as food. Asset indices are typically derived from indicators of goods that are effectively public at the household level, while expenditures are often dominated by food, an almost exclusively private good. In settings in which individually consumed goods are the main component of expenditures, asset indices and per capita consumption yield the least similar results.     

Organization and implementation of China's national sampling survey on fertility and birth control

The Planning and Statistical Department of the State Family Planning Commission of China in July 1988 implemented a fertility and birth control survey in China on 2.16 million married women ages 15-57 using stratified, systematic, clustered, and non-proportionate sampling. 3 questionnaires were used: household, married women, and sample unit covering basic status, family planning status, general characteristics of pregnancy and contraception, population flow, deaths since 1981, and socioeconomic status. The authors suggest several international cooperative research projects including: design of fertility and contraception survey; Chinese population growth; Chinese population dynamics; dynamics of marital and family status; fertility; contraception and birth control; mortality; migration; status of the nationalities of China; population development; regional fertility status; and others. Data from the survey will be available in June 1989.     

深圳流动育龄妇女生育子女数的影响因素分析

本文利用“深圳市龙岗区流动人口计划生育管理与服务状况”调查数据,设计了4个模型,分别从不同角度对生育子女数、初婚初育、初婚二孩生育和初婚三孩生育的影响因素进行了多因素分析。研究结果表明,早婚和多育之间有正相关关系,它和生育意愿有一定的关联。生育意愿对生育行为的影响是非线性的,它对三孩生育的影响最强。经济收入水平对生育行为的影响很复杂,收入水平提高产生的短期效果可能是促进生育率增长。     

生育激励与个人所得税 ——理论逻辑与经验论据

中共十九大报告提出要进一步“促进生育政策和相关经济社会政策配套衔接”。在厘清税收激励生育的理论逻辑基础上,运用工资税模型,获取OECD国家对此的经验论据。结果显示,许多国家运用税收政策向有子女家庭提供正向激励,且更注重中低收入家庭。进一步分析发现,通常为符合资格条件的儿童设计相同的或递增的定额税收优惠,甚至为大规模家庭赋予额外优惠;将儿童税收宽免转化为抵免,引进收入限制和可退抵免制;单亲家庭可享受额外优惠,而已婚家庭还通过个人申报纳税、婚姻优惠、家庭申报纳税等多种举措受益。应汲取和借鉴OECD国家的成功经验,逐步构建我国“生育友好型”的税收制度。     

Demographics and Consumption Patterns in Urban China

This study examines differences among urban Chinese consumers and their consumption patterns in three major cities—Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin—utilising data from a nationally representative sample survey conducted in 2005. Differences were found in these consumers’ age distribution, education level, household composition, birth and death rates, income, expenditure patterns and consumer durable ownership rates. Beijing and Shanghai, the two most affluent cities in China, exhibited the highest consumer durable ownership rates and the highest cost of living. While previous research has frequently segmented China in terms of a rural versus urban dichotomy or by geographic region, this study suggests that the urban Chinese do not constitute a homogeneous market. Further, it is suggested that both geographic region and income, which varies between rural and urban settings, are sound bases for segmenting this important market.     

Expenditure Decentralization and Citizen Satisfaction with Healthcare: Evidence from Urban China

There has been considerable debate whether fiscal decentralization improves the provision of public goods. Based on individual-level data from a nationally representative survey and county-level data from national compendiums of financial statistics and demographic statistics, this study analyzes the effect of expenditure decentralization on citizen satisfaction with public healthcare in urban China. The results indicate a significantly positive effect of expenditure decentralization on citizen satisfaction with public healthcare. We also find evidence that the impact of decentralization is associated with residency status. Further investigation highlights the importance of local economic development in realizing the potential gains from a decentralized system. This study suggests that decision-making at lower levels of government is more responsive to local needs and that the efficiency gains of decentralization are not necessarily accompanied by equitable distribution of welfare.

     

Young women's work and family formation in Sri Lanka

"Patterns of family formation in Sri Lanka resemble those of wealthier nations, with late marriage, delayed childbearing, and moderately low fertility. This article addresses two questions: How have these family formation patterns emerged in the absence of the normally expected levels of economic development? And what activities have occupied young women in the premarital, prechildbearing period? Answers are suggested by data from three sources: the 1981 census; a set of focus-group discussions on the rights, obligations, and aspirations of young women related to marriage, work, childbearing, and child care; and a sample survey of 1,535 women of ages 15-30 in Kalutara District. The article describes the interplay of socioeconomic and familial forces that have affected the status of young Sri Lankan women."