Trends in marriage and divorce in Peninsular Malaysia

Summary Median age at marriage for women has risen sharply for each of the three major ethnic groups - Malays, Chinese and Indians, in Peninsular Malaysia since 1957. The sharpest rise has been recorded for Malays and Indians, whose median age at marriage was barely over 17 in 1957. A shortage of potential husbands in the traditionally sanctioned ages contributed to the rise for Malays and Indians, but was probably not the paramount reason; average age differences between the spouses narrowed, but median age at marriage for men actually rose. During the same period, the previously extremely high divorce rates amongst Malays have fallen sharply, though wide inter-state differences remain. The sharp changes in marriage patterns reflect, and in turn are partly responsible for, far-reaching social and economic changes. They have profoundly affected fertility levels and patterns, as well as intra-familial relationships.     

The population census of Northern Nigeria 1952: Problems and results

A brief survey of censuses previously taken in Northern Nigeria makes clear by comparison the importance of the 1952 Census in the acquisition of demographic data. Some of the problems of organising and conducting the census are considered.

The analysis of the census results pays special attention to the pattern of population density but consideration is also given to age and sex structure, occupations, tribal data, literacy and religions. Shortcomings and omissions in the census, particularly the absence of any information on migration, are noted.

The conclusion stresses the importance of the 1952 Census as a basis for future demographic studies ; the evidence for an increasing population but the absence of vital statistics to explain this ; the need for much further detailed analysis to be undertaken of the data in the 1952 Census.     

Assessing the validity of intercensal comparisons of indigenous Australians, 1986–96

The credibility of analysis of 1996 Census data on indigenous Australians hinges on who the people are who have changed their indigenous identification between the last two censuses. The number of people who identify as indigenous in either the Post-Enumeration Survey or the census is more stable than theprima facie evidence indicates. Also, the continuing low levels of education among the indigenous population means that self-identification signifies that one is, more than likely, disadvantaged. While it is difficult to say with absolute certainty that census statistics accurately reflect the economic status of the indigenous population, they are sufficiently credible to be taken at face value.     

The mathematics of sex and marriage,revisited

We analyze the problem of modeling marriages in a two‐sex model of population dynamics. We first deal with the problem of incomplete and inconsistent census data and then use a simulator to compare the performance of a variety of marriage functions in modeling births and couples during the ten‐year period between consecutive U.S. censuses. Unlike most empirical methods for comparing marriage functions based on goodness of fit, the differences in the projections of the various functions in our method are of the same magnitude (or even smaller) than the errors between the projected and real data. We observe that for the population of the United States, the harmonic mean function frequently found and used in the literature is a quite poor performer when compared with many other functions in the family we use.     

The world's biggest census

The purpose of the 3rd national population census, taken 18 years after "New China's" 2nd census, was to ascertain accurate population figures for China and the spatial population distribution in order to carry out socialist modernization, improve the people's material and cultural lives, and draw up a population policy and program in light of China's actual conditions. The census questionnaire contained 19 items, including 13 for individuals; and 6 items about the household. Preparations for the census began at the end of 1979 even though the census would not begin until July 1, 1982. The preparatory stage included: drafting the Census Statute; conducting pilot censuses in certain areas; rectifying household registration; installing computers; training computer technicians; convening national census work conference and similar conferences at various levels; selecting and training field census workers; printing census forms; and conducting widespread publicity. Pilot censuses were conducted at central, provincial, and county levels in order to draw useful experience for the nationwide census. A large number of census workers were selected and trained. Among them were about a million staff members working in census offices at various levels, 1000 computer technical personnel, 4000 data entry personnel, 100,000 coders, and 1 million census supervisors. 8 million cadres and volunteers at the grassroots actively helped conduct the census. Enumeration and verification was completed between July 1 and July 15, 1982. The postenumeration check on a sample basis showed only a net overcount of 0.15/1000 with an overcount of 0.71/1000 and an undercount of 0.56/1000. All levels of the government, the Communist Party, Trade Unions, and Women's Federations were mobilized to take part in the census, and all mass media were utilized. All census information will be finally tabulated by computers before the end of 1984, and census reports will be compiled and submitted to the State Council for examination before they are published.     

The demography of American Indian families

This paper uses data from the decennial censuses to examine family structure and changes in family structure over time among American Indians. The information about the national Indian population indicates that the trends in family structure among American Indians are parallel in many respects to those in the general US population. That is, the percentage of young American Indian women who have never married has increased over time, the percentage of American Indian women who are divorced has increased over time, and the percentage of American Indian children who reside with a single parent has increased as well. The percentage of American Indian women who have never married and who are divorced and the percentage of American Indian children who live with a single parent are higher than those among the general population. The incidence of children living with single parents is especially high on some reservations which also have high levels of poverty and unemployment. Family patterns, however, vary considerably across reservations in ways that are not easily explained by differences in other demographic characteristics. These variations may be due to cultural and historical differences that are not captured in data collected in the censuses.     

中国配偶年龄差初步研究

配偶年龄差是婚姻的一个重要特征。本文运用2000年人口普查数据对我国配偶年龄差情况进行了初步研究。首先描述了我国配偶年龄差的总体状况，其次针对若干重要变量进行了单因素分析，最后引入其它控制变量使用多元线性回归模型进行了多因素分析。研究发现，我国配偶年龄差很小，且分布集中，近40年来呈现缩小的趋势。再婚、结婚年龄、教育程度等因素对配偶年龄差有明显的影响，且男性一方影响力大于女性。     

Divorce in Israel

In view of the high rate of immigration, the Israeli population is of very diverse ethnic origin. Mixed marriages between spouses of different national origins appear to be responsible for the high rate of divorce. These are related to educational and cultural differences. Moreover, there is a relatively “free” attitude to marriage and divorce among some sections of the population.

As it is unlikely that the proportion of mixed marriages will decrease, no reduction in the divorce rate is likely to occur in the near future.     

Estimating maternal mortality differentials using census data: experience in Honduras

High levels of maternal mortality in developing countries are considered a major public health problem. Over the past decade several international conferences on health have stated the necessity to reduce maternal mortality in developing countries. This is a challenge not only in terms of achieving it but also from the point of view of monitoring it. I use national population censuses to measure maternal mortality and study mortality regional differentials in Honduras, which identified maternal mortality in its most recent census. I also use standard demographic methods to evaluate the census data quality, for both population and death counts, and to evaluate the completeness and coverage of household death data.     

Bayesian population reconstruction of female populations for less developed and more developed countries

We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency of results between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems.     

A probability model for census adjustment

The census can be adjusted using capture‐recapture techniques: capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model, correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so, the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator.     

China's missing children: the 2000 census underreporting surprise

We compare the age and sex structure of China's 2000 population census to an estimate of that structure derived from a projection from the 1990 census. Based on China's own official estimates of demographic change, our intercensal analysis indicates a shortfall in enumeration of more than a quarter of all children under age 5 and an eighth of those between 5 and 9, a total of nearly 37 million children missing in the 2000 census. We show that the shortfall is primarily due to underreporting of children in the census. Sex differences in child underreporting were fairly minor. Child underreporting in China is not unprecedented, but child underreporting rates in 2000 were about triple those of previous censuses. We attribute the increase primarily to policy changes beginning in the early 1990s that held officials at all jurisdictional levels personally responsible for enforcing birth quotas.     

An epitome of the population of old China]

An analysis of data from the 1946 census of the province of Hupei, China, is presented. Data are included on total population and population distribution, sex, age, marriage, education, employment, and place of origin. The demographic effects of the war against Japan are noted, and changes that have occurred over the 30 years since 1947 are considered. The author concludes that the demographic situation in Hupei in 1947 was representative of China as a whole.     

How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined?

According to births in the last year as reported in China's 2000 census, the total fertility rate (TFR) in the year 2000 in China was 1.22 children per woman. This estimate is widely considered to be too low, primarily because some women who had out‐of‐quota births according to China's one‐child family policy did not report those births to the census enumerator. Analysis of fertility trends derived by applying the own‐children method of fertility estimation to China's 1990 and 2000 censuses indicates that the true level of the TFR in 2000 was probably between 1.5 and 1.6 children per woman. A decomposition analysis of change in the TFR between 1990 and 2000, based on our best estimate of 1.59 for the TFR in 2000, indicates that about two‐fifths of the decline in the conventional TFR between 1990 and 2000 is accounted for by later marriage and less marriage, and three‐fifths by declining fertility within marriage. The analysis also applies the birth history reconstruction method of fertility estimation to the two censuses, yielding an alternative set of fertility estimates that are compared with the set derived by the own‐children method. The analysis also includes estimates of trends in fertility by urban/rural residence, education, ethnicity, and migration status. Over time, fertility has declined sharply within all categories of these characteristics, indicating that the one‐child policy has had large across‐the‐board effects.     

Population pressure and fertility in pre-transition Thailand

Before the demographic transition in Thailand, fertility was high, but not uniformly so. As in other pre-transition settings, Thai fertility responded to pressures and opportunities created by socioeconomic structure and land availability. Drawing upon provincial data from the 1947 and 1960 censuses of Thailand, we find a strong 'frontier effect' on Thai fertility in the 1950s. Fertility was higher in sparsely settled frontier provinces and lower in provinces with higher population density relative to cultivatable land. This finding is robust and holds up with controls for agricultural employment, land quality, and the sex ratio (an indicator of sex-selective migration). The effect of population pressure lowers the likelihood of marriage and of marital fertility. The findings from Thailand are consistent with the research of Easterlin on the nineteenth century United States and with other pre-transition societies. We suggest how demographic transition theory might be broadened to include fertility dynamics in pre-transition societies.     

Demographic transition and the emerging windows of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh

The aim of this paper is to examine the demographic transition and the emerging window of opportunities and challenges in Bangladesh. The study utilizes time series data from national level population surveys, censuses and the population projections and estimates produced by the United Nations Population Division. The ongoing demographic transition in Bangladesh leads to many changes in the size and age structure of the rapidly growing population of the country, giving rise to economic and social opportunities as well as policy challenges. The window of opportunity that has emerged since the 1990s will not last long and will not be repeated in the near future. It will reach its peak during the 2020s and will remain open until the 2030s. This demographic dividend needs to be managed efficiently in order to be transformed into better and sustainable economic growth. Understanding demographic challenges must therefore be a priority for the Government of Bangladesh, which must formulate policies to harvest the benefits of the demographic opportunities.     

Estimating census and death registration completeness

This article presents a new method for estimating the relative completeness of 2 census enumerations and of intercensal registered deaths. The Growth Balance Equation was developed by Brass (1975) to estimate the completeness of death registration relative to the completeness of census enumeration. The method presented here can be seen either as an extension of Martin's formulation to allow explicitly for changes in census coverage or as a modification of Brass's method to use deaths by age group rather than deaths by cohort, preferable on the grounds that age group comparisons will be less distorted by age misreporting than cohort comparisons if the patterns of age misreporting are similar for 2 successive censuses. This simple method estimates simultaneously the relative coverage of the 2 censuses and the completeness of registration of intercensal deaths. The key assumptions of the method are that the population is closed to migration and that all the coverage factors involved are invariant with age, at least for the age range studied. Analysis of the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and further work on extending the method to open populations would be useful.     

Estimates of population size and growth from the 1952-54 and 1961 censuses of the Kingdom of Nepal

Abstract The Census of Nepal conducted in 1961 conforms to the generally accepted requirements for a national census. Some doubt could be raised about the previous census as part of the country was enumerated in 1952 and part in 1954. More serious doubts still could be entertained about earlier censuses, including their very existence, though there are persistent rumours that they were carried out every ten years or so since about the middle of the previous century. We have only been able to lay our hands on some data in respect of four earlier censuses: those of 1911, 1920, 1930 and 1941. Little more is available than population totals for some of the component areas from these four censuses, and even then the boundaries and coverage of the component parts are uncertain.     

The demographic viewpoint in the vital and health statistics monographs of The American Public Health Association

The plan calls for monographs on 16 specific topics and a review volume. The specific topics include a monograph on fertility, another on marriage and divorce, and one on social and economic factors in mortality, all of which are of obvious demographic interest. The core of the development of the monographs dealing with the disease topics, and accidents, homicide, and suicide, is a tabulation program involving specific and age-adjusted death rates based upon the deaths in the United States for the three year period 1959-61 and the 1960 census of population. The program called for a set of standard tabulations common to each monograph and also a set of special tabulations tailored to meet the particular needs for each topic as specified by its authors. This wealth of demographic detail regarding mortality in the United States during 1959-61 fills only one aspect of its health picture. To fill out the health picture, use is being made of the great volume of morbidity data out of the National Health Interview and Examination Surveys and a wide variety of other specialized surveys. In all of these, the findings are invariably described in terms of the demographic characteristics of age and sex, and frequently in terms of such social-economic variables as education, income, work status, and occupational class.A large part of the content of the monograph on social and economic factors in mortality will come out of available results of the 1960 census-death certificate matching study at the University of Chicago. One important feature of this monograph, not contained in the Chicago study, is a regression and correlation analysis of total mortality in 202 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas in relation to a large number of social, economic, and climatic factors. Among the features in the monograph on fertility are chapters on the medical and biological characteristics of births, fecundity and family planning, and an analysis of cohort fertility trends. The monograph on marriage and divorce will make use of the detailed tabulations from the 1960 census on marital status in relation to education, race, parentage, earnings and other classifications of individuals and of husband and wife in married couples. It will also contain a matching study of divorce records in certain states for a short period before the census of 1960 with the returns in the census. The project is supported by a grant from the United States Public Health Service (CH 00075; formerly RG 08262). Publication will be by the Harvard University Press.