Estimating the Expectation of Life at Old Ages: Comments on the Article by Mitra

Family reconstitution studies assess demographic behaviour for that section of the population that remains in the parish of their birth. Although there has been considerable discussion of whether or not these non-migrants are representative of the population as a whole, the distorting effects of migration censoring have not been adequately considered. This paper shows that even when the demographic behaviour of non-migrants is identical to that of the general population, migration-censoring will significantly bias family reconstitution results. In particular, existing family reconstitution studies underestimate both age at marriage and life expectancy. The paper assesses the potential magnitude of bias introduced by migration, and suggests several new techniques for correcting the errors.     

The family planning work in Yiyang prefecture as suggested by part of the data of the sample fertility survey]

The National Committee on Family Planning conducted a sample survey of fertility in the Yi-yang area in September 1982. The survey was focused on the marriage and fertility status of women between the ages of 15 and 67. Results from this survey show that early marriage is still very popular. Only 40% of those surveyed delayed their marriage to a later age. There is a need to educate the people on the benefits of late marriage. In addition, statistics show that the average fertility rate for a woman was 6.8 children in 1970 and 2.35 children in 1982. This recent figure is still too high when compared with the under 1.2 figure suggested by the central government. Among the total number surveyed, only 77% have taken birth control measures, and the other 23% still have not taken any birth control measures. The phenomenon shows that popular education on late marriage and having children at a later age is still urgently needed in order to further reduce the fertility rate. Married couples of childbearing age should be taught effective birth control measures and knowledge of eugenics with better education for the next generation. In this way, the masses may participate actively and positively in the national family planning campaign.     

Family growth,household density,and moving

Residential and family histories collected from a sample of 4,027 couples in their first marriage and living in the Philadelphia-Trenton metropolitan area in 1960 are analyzed to determine the effects of marriage duration and childbearing on moving within the “local area.” Rates of moving decline sharply during the early years of marriage and more slowly after the tenth year. At any given marriage duration, the birth of children is associated with higher rates of moving. If the persons-per-room ratio of non-movers represents an acceptable household density, moving can be shown to be an adjustment mechanism whereby housing space is brought in balance with family needs. When couples who moved during a given three-year period defined in terms of marriage duration are compared with couples who did not move during that period, the movers are found to have had higher initial densities, would have had substantially higher densities had they not moved, but have similar terminal (after move) densities.     

The negligible influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility in current danish cohorts, 1975

This paper studies the influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility by applying life table methods to data for cohorts of Danish women born in 1926–1955, collected in retrospective interviews made in 1975. For each five-year cohort, the data have been analyzed by duration of marriage or by duration since previous birth, for women who had no reported births before marriage. Our main empirical results are: (a) that women who married at age 15–19 had higher rates of marital first and second births than those married at ages 20–24, and (b) that premarital cohabitation had very little influence on births of these two first orders in our data.     

Yet another inquiry into the trustworthiness of eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality

This is an enquiry into how eighteenth-century London's Bills of Mortality were compiled. It concludes that while they remain tolerably accurate in aggregate, particularly when considered over a number of years, they are liable to be very misleading if particular localities or parishes are considered. They are a record of registered burials-not deaths-of most of those who had been baptised as Anglicans, so they omit some burial grounds within London, and some dissenters. Crucially, they are most misleading guides to those who had died in one parish but whose family chose to have them buried in another. Several London parishes deliberately undercut their neighbours by charging lower burial fees to attract custom; others opened extra-parochial burial grounds. St Martin-in-the-Fields offers an example of the latter from 1806, but the scale of the new burial ground was not large and it was mainly confined to those who had died in the workhouse. Much more significant was the neighbouring parish of St Anne Soho, which at its peak period in the 1760s to the 1790s was alone handling the equivalent of between 2 and 5 per cent of all Anglican burials within the total area of London's Bills of Mortality. This was only one, though perhaps a particularly egregious, London parish, while the export of corpses to one's erstwhile 'home' parish demonstrates why the Bills cannot be trusted in their detailed geography, as well as providing a warning to all English population historians confronted with a sudden fall or rise in their burial totals.     

Bridal pregnancy in rural England in earlier centuries

Abstract A sample of 3,786 marriages, recorded in the parish registers of 77 rural and semi-rural parishes in 24 English counties during the period 1540-1835, is investigated. 49% of the marriages can be followed through to a maternity recorded in a baptism-entry in the baptism register of the same parish, i.e. the parish of marriage. Of these brides traced to a maternity, roughly one-third had their maternity recorded within eight and a half months of marriage and were therefore probably pregnant at marriage. When allowance is made for delayed baptisms, and for brides whose pre-maritally conceived pregnancy terminated in an abortion or stillbirth and hence went unrecorded, the proportion of 'traced' brides pregnant may approach one-half. Turning to the 51% of marriages untraced to maternities in this investigation, for a large number (perhaps two-thirds) the most likely explanation is the removal ofthe married couple from the parish of marriage before maternity occurred, for reasons unconnected with the bridal condition. It is concluded that there is direct and detailed evidence in the parish registers that more than one-sixth of all brides were pregnant at marriage, and that it can be reasonably deduced from the direct evidence that in fact about one-third were pregnant. The proportion of brides pregnant in the earlier centuries (before 1700) appears to have been only about one-half of that in the later centuries. Regionally, the highest rate in both periods appears to have been in the northern four counties. The social interpretation of these bridal pregnancy rates poses many problems for the social historian.     

The effect of marital status at first birth on marital dissolution among adolescent mothers

The sequencing of marriage and first birth was expected to play an important role in the stability of marriage among adolescent mothers. We hypothesized that adolescent women who married prior to conception would have the lowest rates of marital disruption, followed by those who married between conception and birth. Adolescent women who gave birth prior to marriage were expected to suffer the highest rates of marital dissolution. The results provide partial support for our hypotheses. There is little difference in the probability of separation between adolescent mothers who had a postmarital conception and those who had a premarital conception but married before the birth. Having a premarital birth, however, significantly increases the probability of marital dissolution. We also hypothesized that marital status at first birth would have less effect on the probability of marital dissolution for blacks than for whites. This, too, is generally supported by our findings. Among black females, those with a premarital birth are the first to suffer a marital disruption, but by the end of ten years there is little difference in the probability of separation among the three marital status groups. In contrast, among white females, those with a premarital birth are the first to experience a disruption, and this differential persists over all subsequent marriage duration intervals. Thus, the sequencing of marriage relative to birth has similar short term effects for whites and blacks, but the effect for blacks is evident only in the short term. Ten years after the marriage, black adolescent mothers have similar rates of marital stability regardless of the sequencing of marriage. This is consistent with the findings of previous research and with our hypothesis; with the black family pattern of lower rates of marriage, higher rates of illegitimacy and higher divorce rates, the sequencing of marriage has no long lasting consequences on marital stability. Finally, our predicted decline in the effect of marital status at first birth over historical time also finds partial support. For white females there has been a change in the effect of marriage-first birth sequencing on separation over time. In the period encompassed by the women in our study, white adolescent mothers who married subsequent to the birth have been the most likely to experience a separation at all marriage duration intervals, but this differential narrows as age at interview declines. Among black females there has been no change in the effect of a premarital birth over time.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Preliminary inquiry into changes among women in mountainous regions with regard to marriage and birth]

Research objectives were in China study the changes in marriage, birth, and birth and birth control of mountain women in the last 43 years. The methodology used was random sampling. The sample was taken based on 1% of the agricultural population. The findings show that the unmarried rate of women is currently very low. Remarriage occurs because of the loss of a spouse rather than divorce. Early marriage occurs more frequently with mountain women since they have gradually strayed from the traditional belief of marrying only once. Within the last 40 years, the average age when one married has gradually increased. The percentage of early marriages has decreased and the percentage of late marriages has increased. Prior to 1975, the birth rate was high and now it has decreased. The decrease in the birth rate in 1960 was due to natural disasters; however, the current decreases in the birth rate are due to family planning. The major factors influencing marriage of mountain farmers and birth rate are traditional feudalistic influences, economic life, marriage laws, population policies, culture, and education. The survey was conducted from August 1982 to April 1983. There were 20,174 women ranging from the ages of 15-67 who participated. Findings show that the majority of the unmarried women are now under the age of 25. The percentage of 1st marriages under the legal age reached 2.89%. The average 1st marriage age of women in the 1940s was 19.03. Between 1980-1982 it was 22.30, an increase of 3.27 years since 1940. The percentage of 1st marriages under the age of 18 in the 1940s was 35.96%. It decreased to 2.28% in 1980. The rate of 1st marriages over the age of 23 before 1970 remained approximately 5%. It increased to 56.84% in the early 1980s. The traditional feudalistic influences have greatly affected marriage of mountain farmers. The ratio of more than 1 child per couple reached a rate of over 40%. The improvement of economic life also increased the aggregate birth rate. It reached 7 in the 1950s. With the emphasis no longer on marriage laws and population policies but on family planning, the early marriage rate decreased to below 15% from a previous rate of 40%.     

To grasp the family planning program early, carefully and surely according to the law of reproduction]

China's February 1982 Directive on Improving Family Planning Work stipulated that family planning should be incorporated into national economic and social planning by understanding it early, carefully, and surely according to the law of reproduction. Understanding family planning early means to implement the policy of birth control as a primary goal, to plan early for births, and to carry out birth control measures, i.e., formulating a plan is the basis of understanding early. For example, the following must be considered when mapping out a plan for 1983: the number of fertile women who wanted children but who remained childless for 3 years of marriage; those who conceived late in 1982 and will deliver in 1983; the number of newlyweds over 23 years of age who have not planned a pregnancy; those with 1 child over 4 years who due to unusual circumstances will have a 2nd child; the number of people planning marriages before March 1983. The next step is to make arrangements, which include submitting individual requests, getting permission from communes and approval from the general public, and delivering contraceptives to the homes of newlyweds and mothers. 9 months after arrangements are completed, adjustments must be made, e.g., those who were unsuccessful in their plan to conceive this year will try the next year. To understand carefully is to understand the concept, circumstances, and data of family planning and thus be able to administer it scientifically. This means primarily controlling fertile women who are newlyweds, mothers of 1 child, and mothers of multiple children. To understand surely is to conform to the organization, concept, policy, planning, and measures of family planning. This means training basic level birth control cadres in population theory and methods of family planning. In addition, it means persuading the masses to be enthusiastic, diligent, fearless, understanding, and to show initiative toward family planning.     

Effects of the timing of marriage and first birth of the spacing of subsequent births

Analyzing data from a fifteen-year follow-up survey of high school students originally surveyed in 1957–58 and resurveyed in 1973–74, this paper examines the effects of the timing of marriage and first birth on subsequent child spacing, holding constant the effects of other variables that may be sources of spuriousness. The results suggest that age at first marriage has a causal effect on the occurrence of a short first birth interval and that age at first marriage and premarital pregnancy interact in their effect on the occurrence of a short second birth interval. Age at first marriage has no causal effect on the spacing of the second birth for those whose first child was maritally conceived. The spacing of the first birth, however, appears to have a causal effect on the spacing of the second.     

Age and birth date reporting in Thailand

Researchers analyzed age and birth data reporting using data on 6775 ever married women 15-49 years old collected between March-June 1987 for the Thailand Demographic and Health Survey. 80% of the women accurately stated their age within 1 year of actual age. Further they could state with at least equal accuracy the birth dates of their children. Moreover the ages of younger children were quite accurate since they stated age in units less than whole years but misreporting increased with children's age. Thus the proportion of children who were really 1 year old but reported to be 1 year old was smaller than that of children who really were 1 year old but reported to be 2 years old. This pattern continued until that time when children's ages were no longer reported in greater detail than whole years. The researchers found that undercounts of younger children occurred when stated age was the basis for age tabulations. Most people in Thailand considered their age to be the difference between the present year and the year of birth. They did not take into account whether the present year's birthday passed or not. This practice resulted in a considerable percentage of the population for whom stated age was 1 year older than completed age. In fact, it was quite common, at least in rural areas, for Thasis to not even acknowledge birthdays. They did tend to know their lunar month and animal birth year, however. In conclusion, this study revealed that age data in Thailand are probably more affected when inquiries occur early in the year than later in the year. The researchers called for constant updating research since the social and cultural dynamics which affect age and birth data reporting are always changing.     

The achievements in family planning work in Rudong County as suggested by the data of the Fertility Survey]

A 15% random sampling from Rudong County was recently taken to survey fertility rates. 1153 primary units were chosen, which included 160,832 people. Among this group were 57,050 women aged 15-67 years. Topics surveyed included: marriage, birth, contraception, and population structure. Rudong County, among the earliest counties in China to begin the work of birth control, started in the 1960s with birth control education. The natural rate of population increase by the early 1970s had already fallen. From 1974 to 1982 the average rate of natural population growth was 3.8/1000. Reproduction has gone from a rising trend to a stabilized trend. The base of the population structure pyramid has shrunk; the number of youths aged from birth to 14 years has fallen from 35.05% in 1964 to 21.77% in 1982. The number of people who must be supported (the old and the young) has decreased, lessening society's responsibility for them. 29.45% of the total population are over 65 years or under 14. Society's coefficient factor of support has fallen from 66.31% in 1964 to 41.75%. There is a decrease in the number of people marrying at a young age; the trend is toward marriage at a later age. The average age at marriage had risen from 23.81 years in 1980 to 23.89 years in 1981. The fertility rate has decreased, as has the number of offspring per woman. 1 child family is on the rise and multiple children family is on the decline. In 1981 the 1 child rate reached 92.98%, the 2 children rate was 6.63% and the multiple children rate was 0.49%. Prior to 1979 the 1 child rate was under 10%. The fertility rate fell from 136/1000 in the 1960s to 41.5/1000 in 1981.     

Schooling,marriage, and age at first birth in Madagascar

The low school attainment, early marriage, and low age at first birth of females are major policy concerns in less developed countries. This study jointly estimated the determinants of educational attainment, marriage age, and age at first birth among females aged 12–25 in Madagascar, explicitly accounting for the endogeneities that arose from modelling these related outcomes simultaneously. An additional year of schooling results in a delay to marriage of 1.5?years and marrying 1?year later delays age at first birth by 0.5?years. Parents’ education and wealth also have important effects on schooling, marriage, and age at first birth, with a woman's first birth being delayed by 0.75?years if her mother had 4 additional years of schooling. Overall, our results provide rigorous evidence for the critical role of education—both individual women's own and that of their parents—in delaying the marriage and fertility of young women.     

The temporal relationship of marriage,conception, and birth in Massachusetts

An investigation into the timing of first births in relationship to the date of marriage in Massachusetts confirmed the finding of previous national and local birth timing studies that first births likely to have been conceived before the marriage of their parents constitute a substantial proportion of all first births. The differential frequency of premaritally conceived births among various subgroups appeared to account for the variation noted in the overall timing patterns of first births after marriage. Data were gathered through linkage of certificates of birth of a sample of legitimate first children with the marriage record of their parents. Analysis of the marriage-first birth interval by maternal age and race, type of marriage ceremony, and occupation of the bride and groom were conducted and comparisons with previously published data were made. Separate consideration was given to the frequency and characteristics of those births likely to be premaritally conceived and those likely to have been conceived after the wedding.     

Shanghai adopts family planning regulations

These Regulations, adopted by the Municipal People's Congress of Shanghai on 14 March 1990, do the following: a) strictly prohibit any units and individuals from identifying the sex of a fetus without medical reasons; b) add 1 additional week to the marriage leave of couples who marry at the age set for late marriage (25 for males and 23 for females); c) add 15 days of maternity leave for women who give birth at the age set for late birth (24) and 3 days for their spouses; d) impose a fine equal to 3 to 6 times their average annual income if a couple have an unplanned birth (calculated on the basis of their income 2 years before the birth); and e) subject a couple who have an unplanned birth to disciplinary action by their working units if they work for others or by the administrative department of industry and commerce if they are self employed. Second births are allowed if a first child "can not become normal because of nonhereditary diseases," if both husband and wife are single children, or if a "remarried couple had only one child before their remarriage." The Regulations provide that "the improvement of birth quality and good upbringing of children should be promoted, advice on heredity should be provided, and premarital examinations [should] be conducted." They also stipulate that "A woman should terminate her pregnancy or undergo a sterilization operation if both husband and wife (or either of them) have [a] hereditary or other disease not medically suitable for birth." The provisions of these Regulations prohibiting prenatal sex selection were reported in Annual Review of Population Law, Vol. 17, 1990, Section 240.     

Family transitions in Young Adulthood

Using the first (1995) and third (2001-2002) waves of the Add Health survey, we examine women 's family transitions up to age 24. Only a third of all women marry, and a fifth of those marriages dissolve before age 24. Three out of eight women have afirst birth, with a substantial majority of those births outside of marriage: 66% for whites, 96% for blacks, and 72% for Mexican Americans. Cohabitation is the predominant union form; 59% of women cohabit at least once by age 24. Most cohabitations are short lived, with approximately one in five resulting in a marriage. We summarize the family and relationship experience of women up to age 24 in terms offour categories, each accounting for roughly a quarter of all women. Category 1 has the women who remain single nonparents. Category 2 has the early marriers, women whose marriage is not preceded by a first birth. Category 3 has those who become single parents. Category 4 has the women who cohabit at least once, but who do not marry or have a birth by age 24. The strictly ordered transitions of the 1950s are long gone and have been replaced by a variety of paths to adulthood.     

New rules for family planning and land management in Shaanxi province

These Rules, issued by the Government of Shaanxi Province, China, are as follows: "a) in appropriate residence-building sites and contracting economic forest, priority is given to those who practise family planning conscientiously; b) [a] bigger plot of land for producing mouth grain and of contracted land can be allocated to those single children who have received single child certificates; c) the quota of land appropriated for residence-building sites shall not be raised for those who have unplanned births, and no land for residence-building sites is given to those who get married below the legal age for marriage or who cohabit without going through the formal procedures of marriage registration; d) to those who have a first parity but early birth or a second birth without adequate spacing, appropriation of one person's share of contracted land will be delayed, and to those who have unplanned births, only half a share of contracted plot of land will be appropriated at a deferred date; e) those who violate the family planning policy or refuse to practise family planning shall not be permitted to contract economic forest."     

Population and social structure in a Bedfordshire parish: The Cardington listing of inhabitants, 1782

Abstract This paper describes some of the main social and demographic characteristics of a Bedfordshire parish in the second half of the eighteenth century. It is based on an analysis of the 'Listing of Inhabitants' of Cardington in 1782, and on the use of the parish registers. The listing does not allow an analysis of the entire population of the parish. Its most serious deficiency is the failure to give sufficient detail for the upper social strata of the parish population, viz. the residents of 'farm tenements' and a small number of other properties likewise poorly documented. In the main, the data given in the article refer only to the residents of 'cottage tenements'. They represent the majority of the parish population, but omit the small group at the top of village society. For the 'cottage tenement' population a number of conclusions are drawn. Within this population there was an overall excess of females over males, but the excess was slight, and the number and proportion of males and females in each age-group balanced quite closely. 43-44% of the population of known age were less than 15 years old, and almost half the population were aged between 16 and 60 years. An analysis of marital status tentatively suggests that adult celibacy was rare. The average number of residents per 'cottage' household was only a little higher than the average size of family, confirming that only a small proportion of households contained more than one family. Household and family size may have been larger among craftsmen than labourers, with the households and families of the former containing more resident offspring than those of the latter. About one in every three marriages was either a broken marriage or are-marriage. A reconstitution of certain 'cottage tenement' families tentatively suggests an average of over five baptisms per family. Yet there were only two resident offspring per family in 1782. The difference may be explained by the high level of infant and child mortality, with one-third of all baptised children failing to reach the age of 15 years, and by the high degree of population mobility, albeit over short distances.     

Some problems observed in the 1 percent sample survey of fertility in Shanghai]

From July to December of 1982, a sample survey of fertility was conducted of childbearing females between the ages of 15 and 49 in Shanghai. The results of this survey can be summarized by the following points: (1) The percentage of females of childbearing age is very high, and the situation in the suburbs is even more serious than that inside the city. This is the major reason for a large scale population increase in Shanghi. (2) The marriage rate is high, the divorce rate is low, and the people who remain single in their lifetime are few. This stable family and marriage situation provides a favorable condition for population growth. (3) The average marrying age for childbearing females has gradually risen in recent years, but this trend is now reversed. More and more people are getting married when they are young. (4) Fertility for childbearing aged females decreases according to the increase in their age. In the last two years, however, this downward trend has been reversed, and fertility is gradually increasing again. The above points show that family planning and birth control have entered the most crucial period in Shanghai. Efforts and enforcement should be strengthened in the area of family planning, and no relaxation should be allowed so that the goal of controlling rapid population growth may be achieved.     

Effect of Conflict on Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth in Rwanda

Using Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2005 data, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model to identify the determinants of age at marriage and age at first birth and whether these decisions were affected by conflict. We find that women living in clusters accounting for a larger proportion of sibling deaths in 1994, the year of the genocide, were more likely to marry later and have children later compared with those living in clusters accounting for a lower proportion of sibling deaths. Women living in regions with higher levels of under-five mortality were more likely to have their first child earlier compared with women living in regions with lower infant mortality. The age at marriage was probably affected by two reasons: the change in age structure and sex ratio of the population following the genocide, and the breakdown of kinship in the case of women who lost their siblings.