事后调查的理论和它在人口普查修正中的应用

人口普查不可避免地存在误差,如遗漏、重复。为发挥普查的作用,对其结果修正是必要的。一般采用事后调查法修正。事后调查在人口普查结束后进行,主要目的是为修正提供基础数据。普查局利用这些数据,使用捕获再捕获模型,修正人口普查数。     

Wuxi's pilot population census has laid the foundation for carrying out the Third National Population Census]

In order to lay the foundation for the third national population census, a pilot population census was conducted in Wuxi city, Jiangsu Province in 1980. One goal of this pilot population census was to examine and revise the rules and regulations for the population census. The second goal was to collect practical experience in a population census at a local level, and the third goal was to train a group of working personnel for the national population census. Results from this local population census include information on characteristics of the population, households, and society in general, cultural and educational levels, the economic situation for the local population, marital status, child-bearing status, and the natural mobility of the population. Both the quality and quantity of this pilot population census are excellent. Success is due to an effective and healthy leadership, detailed and well-designed rules and regulations and working principles, support and cooperation from the general public, well-trained working personnel, and suitable use of modern scientific methods for the census.     

Two hundred years and counting: the 1990 census

On April 1, 1990, the US will take a national census, marking 200 years of census taking in America. A national census has been taken every 10 years in the US since 1790. Mandated by the US Constitution, the decennial census is the basis for reapportionment of the House of Representatives. California, Texas, and Florida are expected to gain the most Congressional seats following the 1990 Census, reflecting above-average population growth in these states. The census also provides important information about the characteristics of the American people, and a growing number of federal, state and local government programs, private corporations, and community agencies use census data. Each census provides a portrait of America, and over the decades these portraits have revealed much about how our country has changed as we have grown from a young agrarian nation of about 4 million people clustered along the Eastern seaboard to a complex post-industrial society of nearly 250 million spread across the continent and beyond. Techniques for taking the census have steadily improved over the past 2 centuries. The 1990 Census will rely heavily on computerization in all its aspects, including field operations, processing, geography, data tabulations, and products. It is likely to be the most accurate census in our history. The 1990 Census is already the subject of a lawsuit, however, charging that minority groups will be counted less completely than the white population. A series of similar lawsuits followed the 1980 Census, but all were unsuccessful. This Bulletin discusses the Census Bureau's plans for taking the 1990 Census, looks back on 200 years of census taking in America, and details such key aspects of the 1990 Census as the questionnaire, census geography and data dissemination plans, census undercount and the homeless.     

浅谈人口普查地理区域划分

在人口普查中 ,划分普查地理区域便于普查工作的组织实施 ,是保证登记不重不漏的可靠基础 ,是建立普查数据质量控制体系的有效途径 ,并能为后续工作提供依据。划分原则一般是普查区域尽可能与行政区划相吻合 ,逐级划分 ,地域覆盖不漏不重 ,特殊地区特殊对待。划分重点在于普查区和调查小区     

The function and significance of coding in the population census]

The importance and practicality of a nationally standardized census code for China's population are outlined in this paper. Due to the diversity and size of China's population, the tremendous cost of conducting a national census depends to a large extent on the development of an efficient, simple, comprehensive, and easily completed census form. Codifying information is regarded as a means for greatly simplifying computerized data processing of census forms, although past problems with misinterpretation of instructions by census takers in various parts of the country have caused massive backlogs, errors, and duplication of effort. A key problem discussed is the matter of converting Chinese characters (from census forms) into a computerized format for data processing. It is proposed that a nationally standardized code for reducing economic and technical information be established in order to streamline both national and local surveys.     

中国2000年人口普查的几个问题研究

本文首先指出,中国２０００年的人口普查,是中国人口普查所而临的首次世纪之交的人口普查,因此,是一次具有重要时代意义的人口普查。论文着重对人口普查资料的应用与发展,人口普查资料的发布,以及人口普查资料发布的规范与管理问题,进行了深入讨论。指出,人口普查资料的发布,应包括重要国情指标的发布,并强调国情指标的发布,应由国家统计局纳入统一规范与管理。     

The main contents and characteristics of the third national population census]

The Chinese State Council publicized rules and regulations for the 3rd national population census on February 19, 1982. In 28 chapters, this document outlined the leadership organization, target of the census, time and space of the census, performance evaluation, and the transaction and publication of the data collected. 1 special feature of this census is the connection between the need for current modernized construction and possible conditions available. Altogether there are 19 items in this census, while the last census had only 9 items. Among the newly added items are: 1) those concerning economic characteristics, 2) those on population growth, and 3) those on the household condition of the constant population. Another special feature of the 3rd national population census is the combination of China's own working experience in population and that of foreign countries. In the skills of modernized calculation, new experience from foreign countries has been fully utilized. The scientific method has been used to design the census form, a sample examination, the coding of collected data, and data registration through the use of computers. The 3rd national population census has been successful for 3 main reasons: 1) extensive support from the general public, 2) strict organization and hard work, and 3) modernized computers used in calculation.     

Census enumeration in remote Australia: Issues for aboriginal data analysis

Given the crucial role played by census data in informing economic and social policies directed at the Aboriginal population in remote areas, some assessment of the quality of remote area data is required as these are derived from enumeration procedures which differ fundamentally from the standard approach employed in the census. This paper discusses the remote area census enumeration strategy employed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), with a particular focus on the Northern Territory, and highlights possible implications for the interpretation of census counts and census characteristics.     

The use of sampling in conjunction with population censuses

In Asia and the Pacific, the practice of governments is increasingly to collect information on their populations' size, age and sex composition, geographic distribution, and certain other basic demographic and socioeconomic characteristics on the basis of a complete (100%) enumeration, and to supplement this basic information by collecting information on a larger range of variables on a sample basis. The additional information, which is gathered as part of the census operation, may be related to such population characteristics as migration, employment, fertility, and health. A complete census is generally indispensable for obtaining information about small domains, and also for obtaining politically important data, which must be seen to be free from sampling variability. A complete census is typically confined to obtaining a detailed picture of the number and basic structural characteristics of the entire population, with as much detail as possible about local areas. Sample surveys can quickly obtain a wider variety of more complex data. Sampling applications for the census include 1) using sampling in the design and control of census operations, such as in planning, testing, controlling, and evaluating the census; 2) using sample enumeration to supplement items covered in the complete census; 3) sampling the census results for processing to make the results available more quickly and at lower cost; and 4) extracting samples of microlevel files of detailed census data so as to facilitate dissemination of primary data.     

The US Decennial Census: Political Questions,Scientific Answers

The US decennial census was initiated in 1790 to facilitate nation‐building tasks, especially that of reconfiguring political representation as the population grew and settled new territories. To this basic task of power distribution have been added other key governmental functions, such as the use of census data in guiding revenue sharing and in the enforcement of nondiscriminatory policies. Throughout its history the census has been the focus of partisan clashes. Following the identification of the “differential undercount” a measure of how census coverage differs across demographic groups and geographic areas–the partisan battles intensified, and in recent decades have come to focus not just on how the census counts are used but how the census data are collected. It has been argued that census methodology could be designed to predetermine given partisan outcomes, and for the 2000 census this charge shifted from “could be” to “is.” The Census Bureau has taken extraordinary steps to demonstrate that no partisan considerations have affected the design or implementation of the census, and that its decisions are based solely on the best technical judgment available.     

A census of one billion people (summary)]

The national census which was conducted in 1982 has provided reliable population data for formulating policies and plans in China's modernization process. A great deal of experience has been acquired from this census. (1) The census was based upon China's practical situation and a unique system of methods suitable to China's situation was used. (2) Census workers have found appropriate methods through practical experience and also learned the skill of using computers in handling census data. (3) The general public was very cooperative and worked closely with the leadership and professional cadres. (4) Measures were taken to ensure the quantity and quality of the census work so that the goal of promoting the data's quantity and quality could be reached. (5) The spirit of patriotism was developed, and the people realized that the national census is a necessary measure to be taken for China's construction and modernization. The work of the 1982 national census was successful. The unfinished work which lies ahead is still very heavy. The census should keep on learning from the successful experience of foreign countries and try to overcome difficulties so that the work on China's population statistics may be pushed forward.     

The 1990 U.S. census: how good is good enough?

The 1990 US census is likely to be the most accurate in the nation's history, but it may miss 2 or 3 million people, most of them poor and many of them black or Hispanic. Because the population census is the basis for political apportionment and determines the allocation of a growing share of federal funds to localities and public programs, undercoverage is of great concern to cities, states, and the groups most affected. The statistical methods developed to measure the extent of undercounting in the census have become increasingly reliable, but the official census count has never before been adjusted on the basis of these methods. This article describes plans for the 1990 census and examines a growing controversy over adjustment for an undercount.     

The world's biggest census

The purpose of the 3rd national population census, taken 18 years after "New China's" 2nd census, was to ascertain accurate population figures for China and the spatial population distribution in order to carry out socialist modernization, improve the people's material and cultural lives, and draw up a population policy and program in light of China's actual conditions. The census questionnaire contained 19 items, including 13 for individuals; and 6 items about the household. Preparations for the census began at the end of 1979 even though the census would not begin until July 1, 1982. The preparatory stage included: drafting the Census Statute; conducting pilot censuses in certain areas; rectifying household registration; installing computers; training computer technicians; convening national census work conference and similar conferences at various levels; selecting and training field census workers; printing census forms; and conducting widespread publicity. Pilot censuses were conducted at central, provincial, and county levels in order to draw useful experience for the nationwide census. A large number of census workers were selected and trained. Among them were about a million staff members working in census offices at various levels, 1000 computer technical personnel, 4000 data entry personnel, 100,000 coders, and 1 million census supervisors. 8 million cadres and volunteers at the grassroots actively helped conduct the census. Enumeration and verification was completed between July 1 and July 15, 1982. The postenumeration check on a sample basis showed only a net overcount of 0.15/1000 with an overcount of 0.71/1000 and an undercount of 0.56/1000. All levels of the government, the Communist Party, Trade Unions, and Women's Federations were mobilized to take part in the census, and all mass media were utilized. All census information will be finally tabulated by computers before the end of 1984, and census reports will be compiled and submitted to the State Council for examination before they are published.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF GENERALIZED RAKINGIN THE SYNTHETIC ESTIMATION OFPOPULATION SIZE

The problem of counting a population that is cross-classified with respect to demographic and geographic attributes is considered. A census is conducted in which individuals are “captured” with probabilities that are believed to be relatively constant within demographic categories. The census is followed by a random sample in which individuals are “recaptured” independently of the census. Using the two counts, capture-recapture estimates of the demographic category populations are obtained. A synthetic estimate of population size for a geographic entity is obtained by summing the corresponding adjustment factors (capture-recapture estimates divided by census counts) across all individuals captured by the census in the entity. The use of generalized raking is considered as a method for smoothing adjustment factors. It is found that generalized raking differs little from a class of weighted least squares regression models. This suggests that generalized raking does not offer an improvement over regression for smoothing adjustment factors. The efficiency loss of generalized raking relative to the best regression-based procedures can be substantial.     

中国人口终身迁移状况分析

“出生地”是用来收集人口迁移信息最常用的调查项目之一。中国以往的人口普查中一直缺少这一调查项目 ,这使得利用出生地资料对人口迁移状况进行分析在国内一直是个空白。中国第五次人口普查在中国人口普查史上首次调查了人口的出生地信息。本文主要根据第五次人口普查提供的出生地资料 ,对中国各省人口的终身迁移水平、流向以及不同年龄人口的终身迁移状况进行了初步分析。     

Revision of Ladino and Maya census populations of Guatemala, 1950 and 1964

This article examines the Guatemalan census enumeration for 1950 and 1964 and the vital registration from 1945 to 1969. The examination reveals an inconsistency in the ethnic reporting of Ladino and Maya between the two systems. The evidence indicates census misclassification of the Maya population. An adjustment procedure is presented to revise the Ladino and Mayan populations for the two census years.     

A probability model for census adjustment

The census can be adjusted using capture‐recapture techniques: capture in the census, recapture in a special Post Enumeration Survey (PES) done after the census. The population is estimated using the Dual System Estimator (DSE). Estimates are made separately for demographic groups called post strata; adjustment factors are then applied to these demographic groups within small geographic areas. We offer a probability model for this process, in which several sources of error can be distinguished. In this model, correlation bias arises from behavioral differences between persons counted in the census and persons missed by the census. The first group may on the whole be more likely to respond to the PES: if so, the DSE will be systematically too low, and that is an example of correlation bias. Correlation bias is distinguished from heterogeneity, which occurs if the census has a higher capture rate in some geographic areas than others. Finally, ratio estimator bias and variance are considered. The objective is to clarify the probabilistic foundations of the DSE, and the definitions of certain terms widely used in discussing that estimator.     

The registration of Chinese population in 1982]

The registration of the population is the most crucial part in the entire work of the population census, and it is also the most difficult task. Generally speaking, the population census includes three steps for the complete process: preparations before the census, the practical registration, and the final review. These three steps are closely related to one another, and they form a complete cycle. The preparations before the census include determination of the scope of the census, explanation to the general public of the meaning and significance and demand for the census, preliminary survey of the population situation for the area, and the establishment of registration stations. In the practical registration work, attention should be given to the method, procedure, and principles for the registration. Special arrangements should be made for the popultion who live on boats, move around and live from animal husbandry, and those who belong to ethnic minorities. As for the results of the registration, working staff is required to check and double-check their accuracy. Census regions and different communes should also check on one another's registration in order to correct any possible mistakes. In general, the registration of the populationin the 1982 census was successful, and both the quantity and quality of the registration were improved. This was made possible because of a close cooperation between the people and the government and the hard work by the staff.     

中国少数民族人口出生性别比问题研究

本文以“五普”数据为基础,对比“三普”、“四普”数据,对我国少数民族出生人口性别比问题进行研究。研究表明我国少数民族出生人口性别比偏高问题已经存在。虽然问题没有汉族严重,但其发展的趋势与汉族相当接近;少数民族出生人口性别比偏高表现出较强的区域差异、城乡差异和民族差异。     

人口普查中的事后质量抽样调查

事后质量抽查是世界各国在人口普查中普遍采取的用来评估人口普查登记质量的调查方法,是评价数据质量的重要手段之一。本文主要从事后质量抽查的作用、抽样设计、调查方法、估计方法、抽查结果以及与以往相比有何改进等方面论述了2000年第五次全国人口普查中的事后质量抽样调查,并对人口普查的总人口漏报率进行了评估。