The mortality of Allied prisoners of war and Belgian civilian deportees in German custody during the First World War: a reappraisal of the effects of forced labour

Influenced by results for the Second World War, recent research on forced labour in Imperial Germany during the Great War has stressed continuities of racial discrimination against East European workers. While agreeing that prisoners of war (POWs) from Russia were discriminated against, I reject the view that this led to a significantly worse mortality regime for the group as a whole. Using the same raw data, I calculate annual rates which show that the mortality of POWs from Russia was only slightly higher than that of French and Belgian POWs but much lower than that of British and Italian POWs and of Belgian civilian deportees. I argue that this unexpected outcome is explained by the fact that the POWs who came early into German captivity faced a lower risk of being employed in urban industrial areas, with their much more unfavourable food and disease environment.     

Scarring and Mortality Selection Among Civil War POWs: A Long-Term Mortality, Morbidity, and Socioeconomic Follow-Up

Debilitating events could leave either more frail or more robust survivors, depending on the extent of scarring and mortality selection. The majority of empirical analyses find more frail survivors. I find heterogeneous effects. Among severely stressed former Union Army prisoners of war (POWs), the effect that dominates 35?years after the end of the Civil War depends on age at imprisonment. Among survivors to 1900, those younger than 30 at imprisonment faced higher old-age mortality and morbidity and worse socioeconomic outcomes than non-POW and other POW controls, whereas those older than 30 at imprisonment faced a lower older-age death risk than the controls.     

Family Policies and the Western European Fertility Divide: Insights from a Natural Experiment in Belgium

Countries in Northwestern Europe, including Belgium, report cohort fertility levels of close to two children per woman; whereas Central European countries, such as Germany, have levels of around 1.6 children. In seeking to explain these differences, some scholars have stressed the role of the social policy context, while others have pointed to variation in fertility‐related social norms. But because these influences are interdependent, it is difficult to isolate their effects on fertility trends. This study attempts to disentangle these two factors by drawing on a quasi‐natural experiment. After World War I Germany was compelled to cede the Eupen–Malmedy territory to Belgium. The population of this region has retained its German linguistic identity, but has been subject to Belgian social policies. We examine whether the fertility trends in this German‐speaking region of Belgium follow the Belgian or the German pattern. Our findings indicate that they generally resemble the Belgian pattern. This suggests that institutional factors are important for understanding the current fertility differences in Western Europe.     

Russia Faces Depopulation? Dynamics of Population Decline

Between 1992 and 1993 Russia's population declined, as it has in every succeeding year. This has been viewed as a population disaster, related to high adult male mortality and deterioration of the health care system. Some see a substantially depopulated Russia in the future. However, the prospect of long-term population decline is completely due to recent declines in fertility. High adult male mortality, although a cause of great concern, does not contribute to the chance of long-term population decline. Projections of the future population of Russia depend upon the exact fertility assumptions used. Based on the example of fertility in the United States in the Great Depression and the Baby Boom following World War II, the future depopulation of Russia is far from certain.     

Russian Mortality Crisis and the Quality of Vital Statistics

Mortality from ill-defined conditions in Russia has the fastest rate of increase compared to all other major causes of death. High proportion of deaths in this category is indicative for low quality of mortality statistics. This article examines the trends and possible causes of mortality from ill-defined conditions in Russia. During 1991–2005, mortality from ill-defined conditions in Russia increased in all age groups. The pace of increase was particularly high at working ages and the mean expected age at death from ill-defined conditions has shifted to younger ages, particularly for men. The analysis of individual medical death certificates issued in Kirov and Smolensk regions of Russia demonstrate that 89–100% of working-age deaths from ill-defined conditions correspond to human bodies found in a state of decomposition. Data from Smolensk region shows that over 60% of these decedents were unemployed. Temporal trends of mortality from ill-defined conditions and injuries of undetermined intent in Moscow city suggest that deaths from the latter cause were probably misclassified as ill-defined conditions. This practice can lead to underestimation of mortality from external causes. Growing number of socially isolated marginalized people in Russia and insufficient investigation of the circumstances of their death contribute to the observed trends in mortality from ill-defined conditions.     

香港人口死亡率演变及其未来发展

与其它发展地区类似 ,二战以后香港人口死亡率已经经历了显著的下降 ,达到了一个非常低的水平。在这种极低水平的现状下 ,香港人口死亡率进一步下降的空间还有多大呢 ?本文基于香港人口死亡率历史数据 ,探讨了其演变趋势 ,同时利用Lee -Carter模型对香港未来 5 0年分性别的人口死亡率进行了预测。如果我们将预测结果与最近的官方预测数据进行比较 ,可以发现 ,本文Lee -Carter模型预测的未来香港人口死亡率下降趋势比官方预测结果要乐观     

第二次世界大战对苏联人口状况的影响

第二次世界大战期间为了赢得战争胜利,苏联付出了惨重的人口代价。战争对苏联人口状况产生了深刻的影响,不仅加重了战前已存在的人口危机程度,而且对居民的身体健康状况、结婚率和家庭规模造成了更深程度的破坏。战后流行病大规模爆发,出生率下降、死亡率上升,性别比例、年龄结构严重失衡,人口数量大幅减少,并持续数十年,为20世纪90年代初俄罗斯爆发的人口危机埋下了隐患。     

Mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century: from the state to the cities

The aim of this paper is to explore mortality in Quebec during the nineteenth century from a demographic perspective. During the nineteenth century, there was excess urban mortality in various countries; in order to identify such mortality differentials, we compared mortality indicators for the province of Quebec and then for the urban areas of Montreal and Quebec City. Using data from various studies, we produced life tables and compared life expectancies. We show that at different times during the nineteenth century, spatial variations in mortality levels across the province of Quebec and its urban areas were significant. According to the data we analyzed, mortality is undoubtedly higher in urban areas even though a convergence in trends took place towards the end of the century, resulting in an overall reduction in mortality. Also, exploring life expectancies within a cohort approach at times of fast-changing mortality patterns has proved to be instructive. Life expectancy estimates based on a cross-sectional approach were systematically lower than those resulting from a cohort-specific one. Trends diverged to a greater extent beginning with the 1870 cohort, reflecting the improvements made from that point on to World War II. Since current mortality levels are substantially determined by the cumulative effects of past behaviour specific to each generation, it is quite obvious that mortality analysis will reveal its true meaning only with the help of cohort life tables.     

Mortality following conjugal bereavement,Belgium 1991-96: The unexpected effect of education

This paper examines excess mortality following spousal bereavement by time since bereavement, sex, age, and education. The main hypothesis challenged is that higher education buffers the harmful effects of spousal loss. Using a log-rate model, death-rate ratios (widowed/married) are estimated for 49,849 and 126,746 Belgian widowers and widows and an equal number of non-bereaved controls matched to the bereaved on their socio-demographic characteristics. The hypothesis that the more educated suffer less excess mortality is not supported. Although higher educational levels are associated with lower mortality in general, they do not alleviate the effects of bereavement. On the contrary, in the period immediately following spousal loss, the more highly educated seem to have more, rather than less, excess mortality. Three possible arguments are suggested to account for this: education-related differences in the partner-relationship, structural differences in the availability of appropriate social support, and cultural differences in potential support networks.     

Recent Immigration and Studies of Ethnic Assimilation

Studies of ethnic assimilation are frequently based upon status comparisons between the foreign born and their "children," the second generation. The assumption that recent immigration has been negligible and that the foreign born represent a closed population is implicit in that procedure. However, analysis of official statistics indicates that immigrants who arrived since World War II now comprise a substantial share of the foreign-born population, while the foreign born who arrived before quota restrictions are rapidly being depleted by mortality. Recent immigrants, as intended by quota legislation, are of much higher socioeconomic status than immigrants who arrived before World War 1. Hence, characteristics of both recent immigrants and earlier arrivals are confounded in data for the foreign-born population. Existing data do not permit rigorous assessment of this confusion or adequate control for it. This paper suggests that tabulations of the foreign born by "year of arrival" would improve the sociological utility of data for ethnic groups.     

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in developing countries: The case of child Survival in São Paulo,Brazil*

I examined trends in socioeconomic inequalities in under-five mortality for the state of São Paulo, Brazil, over a 21-year period from 1970 to 1991, during which much of the mortality transition unfolded. During this time, there was a decline in inequality in under-five mortality by household wealth but a substantial increase by mother’s education. Improvements in infrastructure and economic development were associated with lower levels of socioeconomic inequality in under-five mortality. Mother’s education emerged as the key factor underlying socioeconomic inequalities in under-five mortality even as levels of education for women increased and inequality in schooling fell.     

Mortality in Ghana: Evidence from the cape coast project data

This paper deals with the estimation of mortality for a rural community of about 20,000 persons in the rain-forest area of south-west Ghana. Specifically, infant, child and adult mortality estimates have been obtained by the application of a wide range of direct and indirect methods of measuring mortality from the different statistics collected by a longitudinal mortality and fertility project conducted during 1974–7. It was noted that infant and childhood mortality rates obtained from death registrations were consistent with those rates yielded by pregnancy histories and child survival statistics. However, the adult mortality estimates derived from orphanhood statistics tended to be lower than those suggested by death registrations. The analysis revealed an infant mortality rate of 100 for boys and 84 for girls, equal childhood mortality rates for boys and girls (85–6), a lower expectation of life at birth for men (45.8 years) than for women (52.8), and a much more severe incidence of mortality among men aged over 40 than for women at the corresponding ages.     

Mortality in Ghana: Evidence from the cape coast project data

Abstract This paper deals with the estimation of mortality for a rural community of about 20,000 persons in the rain-forest area of south-west Ghana. Specifically, infant, child and adult mortality estimates have been obtained by the application of a wide range of direct and indirect methods of measuring mortality from the different statistics collected by a longitudinal mortality and fertility project conducted during 1974-7. It was noted that infant and childhood mortality rates obtained from death registrations were consistent with those rates yielded by pregnancy histories and child survival statistics. However, the adult mortality estimates derived from orphanhood statistics tended to be lower than those suggested by death registrations. The analysis revealed an infant mortality rate of 100 for boys and 84 for girls, equal childhood mortality rates for boys and girls (85-6), a lower expectation of life at birth for men (45.8 years) than for women (52.8), and a much more severe incidence of mortality among men aged over 40 than for women at the corresponding ages.     

Population change in the former Soviet Republics

Demographic trends in the former Soviet Republics and Russia are summarized and discussed in this publication. The former Soviet Republics in Europe as well as Georgia and Armenia had completed or almost completed their demographic transition before October 1991. Other Central Asian republics experienced reduced mortality, but, despite rapid declines, fertility is still above replacement level (at 3-4 children per woman). The economic and social dislocation of the breakup of the republics has hastened fertility decline. The annual population growth rate of the USSR in the mid-1980s was 0.9%; this rate declined to 0.4% in 1991, and the decline has continued. The 1991 population of the USSR was 289.1 million. Between 1989 and 1991, the crude birth rate was 18/1000 population, and the crude death rate was 10/1000. The net migration rate of -4/1000 helped to reduce growth. Total fertility in the USSR was 2.3 children in 1990. In Russia, fertility declined from 1.9 in 1990 to 1.4 in 1993. The preferred family size in Russia was 1.9 in 1990 and 1.5 in 1993. This decline occurred due to lack of confidence in the economy and insufficient income. Only 19% of women used contraception in 1990. Marriages declined after 1990. Age pyramids were similar in the republics in that there was a narrowing in the proportion aged 45-49 years, and the male population aged over 65 years was diminished, due to the effect of World War II. The cohort of those aged 20-24 years in 1992 was very small due to the small parental birth cohort. The differences in the republics was characterized as broad-based in the younger ages because of high fertility. The number of childbearing women will remain large. Life expectancy has been 70 years since the 1950s and has declined in some republics due to substandard health care, lack of job safety measures, and alcoholism. Some republics experienced increased life expectancy, but, after 1991, mortality increased. Tajikistan had the highest infant mortality of 47/1000 live births in 1993. A demographic profile provided for each republic offers several population projection scenarios.     

Comparison of life tables between the solitary eumenid waspAnterhynchium flavomarginatum and the subsocial eumenid waspOrancistrocerus drewseni to evaluate the adaptive significance of maternal care

Summary I compared life tables between the solitary eumenid waspAnterhynchium flavomarginatum Smith and the subsocial eumenid waspOrancistrocerus drewseni Saussure in Kyoto, Japan, during 1980–1983. The subsocial eumenid is parthenogenetic in this study area. There were 9 identified mortality factors in the solitary eumenid and 7 in the subsocial eumenid, 6 of which were common to the two eumenids. The important differences of mortality between the two eumenids were seen in the egg, larval, and prepupal stages. In the egg stage, mortality by the phorid flyMegaselia sp. was much lower in the subsocial eumenid (1.4%) than in the solitary eumenid (15.0%) likely because of the matenal care of the subsocial eumenid (progressive provisioning and other related behavior), which reduced predation pressure. In the larval stage, mortality by the miltogrammine flyAmobia distorta was also lower in the subsocial eumenid (8.1%) than in the solitary eumenid (23.8%) also probably because of the maternal care of the subsocial eumenid. A comparison of mortality in the two eumenids between the stable, long continuing natural nest sites and the additional temporal ones showed that the phorid fly remained near its birth place and parasitized stable nest sites. The miltogrammine fly followed returning eumenid wasps and parasitized those nest sites that have a high host density. In the prepupal stage, mortality by endogenous death was higher in the subsocial eumenid than in the solitary eumenid. Mortality due to the rhipiphorid beetle was also higher in the subsocial eumenid probably due to more frequent flower-visits by the subsocial eumenid. The defense mechanism of the subsocial eumenid was discussed in relation to the evolution of subsociality. Contribution to the ecological studies of the eumenid wasps. I.     

Mortality in Vietnam, 1979–1989

Little is known about past and present mortality in Vietnam, as the first official data on mortality have only recently become available from censuses taken in 1979 and 1989. Using these data, I estimate Vietnamese mortality during the intercensal period using two techniques that rely on age-specific growth rates from two successive age distributions. Intercensal emigration and differential completeness of census enumeration associated with massive outflows of refugees in the wake of the Vietnam War; population-redistribution policies, and a highly mobile population represent important sources of bias for the estimation of intercensal mortality. I incorporate several strategies to minimize bias from these sources and to select the method that is least sensitive to errors associated with them. Life expectancy at birth estimated for the 1979–1989 intercensal period is 61.4 years for males and 63.2 for females. These results suggest a trend of declining mortality between the 1970s and the 1980s and add solid empirical evidence to the debate over whether mortality in Vietnam has been deteriorating or improving.     

Mortality of American Troops in the Iraq War

We estimate the death rate of United States troops deployed to Iraq from the beginning of the US invasion through 30 September 2006. Eighty percent of the deaths in Iraq were combat‐related. The death rate in Iraq is lower than that of the civilian population of the United States but substantially higher than that of young adults. It is much lower than the death rate of US troops in Vietnam, in part because a much smaller fraction die among those wounded in Iraq. We also estimate relative mortality levels for US troops according to numerous demographic variables through 30 November 2006. The risk of death in Iraq per deployment is shown to be highest for Marines; Naval and Air Force personnel in Iraq have lower death rates than the civilian population of comparable age. Other categories with above‐average mortality in Iraq are enlisted troops, males, younger persons, and Hispanics.     

俄罗斯人口性别比失调问题探析

由于二战时期特殊的历史条件和政治军事原因,俄罗斯的青壮年男性死亡率很高,从此开了该国人口性别比严重失调的先河;时至今日,俄罗斯的经济发展缓慢,加之地理环境、生育观念和生活习惯等因素的影响,更使得人口性别比失调现象日益严重。性别比偏低导致婚姻家庭领域的不健康趋势上升,女性的权益和地位受到严重损害,单身老年妇女处境尤为艰难,非婚生儿童和青少年的抚养、教育等问题也日趋严重,从而直接酿成了俄罗斯难以摆脱的人口危机。不从根本上解决性别比失调问题,俄罗斯就难以摆脱棘手的人口危机。     

Marital and fertility careers of Russian women born between 1910 and 1934

Women born in Russia in the early decades of this century grew up in a period characterized by profound societal changes. Their lives were affected by often devastating events, in particular World War II, that ravaged society when they were entering their childbearing years. This note presents a detailed demographic analysis of the marital and fertility careers of women born between 1910 and 1934 based on individual retrospective life histories, collected in the most recent (5 percent) 1994 microcensus of the Russian Federation. It assesses the influence of external events on age at first marriage, widowhood, divorce, childlessness, parity, and age at birth. A comparison with younger cohorts shows that the societal disturbances had strong temporary effects. However, the final outcomes were not influenced very much: completed fertility continued its slow, secular decline.     

Annual mortality rates and excess deaths of children under five in Iraq, 1991-98

Data from two parallel household surveys conducted in Iraq by UNICEF in 1999 show that under-5 mortality declined steadily from 1974 to 1990, reaching about 63 per 1,000 live births in the period 1986-90. It then rose dramatically to 118 per 1,000 in 1991, the year of the Gulf War. The number of 'excess' under-5 deaths (i.e., the number in excess of the number predicted from past trends) in Iraq between 1991 and 1998 was calculated assuming that, instead of the rates measured by the 1999 survey for this period, either (a) average mortality rates for the period 1986-90 had been maintained, or (b) mortality had continued to decline at the rate observed between 1974 and 1990. According to these calculations, the estimated number of excess deaths resulting from the Gulf War and its aftermath up to 1998 was between 400,000 (assumption a) and 500,000 (assumption b).