Further evidence on the decline in infant mortality in pre-industrial England: North Shropshire, 1561-1810

Summary There is growing evidence of a substantial decline in infant mortality in England from the late seventeenth century onwards. This trend is examined in detail using data from the parish registers of a group of rural parishes in North Shropshire. A major change in the whole pattern of first-year mortality during the period 1661-1810 is indicated, its main features being an increase in mortality between the ages of six and eleven months, and a marked fall in mortality during the first three months of life. Examination of the seasonal pattern of infant mortality shows very heavy mortality among young infants in the winter, presumably from respiratory causes, during the period before 1700. It is suggested that a fall in the number of deaths from these causes was the main reason for the decline in infant mortality since the late seventeenth century.     

Estimation of demographic measures for India, 1881-1961, based on census age distributions

Abstract India is one of the very few developing countries which have a relatively long history of population censuses. The first census was taken in 1872, the second in 1881 and since then there has been a census every ten years, the latest in 1971. Yet the registration of births and deaths in India, even at the present time, is too inadequate to be of much help in estimating fertility and mortality conditions in the country. From time to time Indian census actuaries have indirectly constructed life tables by comparing one census age distribution with the preceding one. Official life tables are available for all the decades from 1872-1881 to 1951-1961, except for 1911-1921 and 1931-1941. Kingsley Davis(1) filled in the gap by constructing life tables for the latter two decades. He also estimated the birth and death rates ofIndia for the decades from 1881-1891 to 1931-1941. Estimates of these rates for the following two decades, 1941-1951 and 1951-1961, were made by Indian census actuaries. The birth rates of Davis and the Indian actuaries were obtained basically by the reverse survival method from the age distribution and the computed life table of the population. Coale and Hoover(2), however, estimated the birth and death rates and the life table of the Indian population in 1951 by applying stable population theory. The most recent estimates of the birth rate and death rate for 1963-1964 are based on the results of the National Sample Survey. All these estimates are presented in summary form in Table 1.     

Famine, disease, and mortality patterns in the parish of Borshevka, Russia, 1830-1912

Scholars have projected a dismal image of nineteenth-century, rural Russia as a society repeatedly punctuated by crop failures, famine, starvation, and epidemics of famine-related diseases. But there has been no rigorous attempt, using appropriate methods, to assess the nature of demographic crises in Russia and their contribution to overall mortality and population growth. The pattern of mortality evident in the parish under examination is distinguished by an extremely high incidence of infant, diarrhoeal diseases and childhood, infectious diseases. This unfavourable disease environment and resulting high rates of infant and early childhood mortality were more closely related to fertility levels, household size, housing conditions, and weaning practices than to annual or seasonal food availablity and the nutritional status of the population. In a disease-driven society, the susceptibility to infection and the force of infection can, to a considerable extent, be determined by demographic factors, familial norms, and climatic constraints.     

Differential fertility in Ontario. An application of factorial design to a demographic problem

This paper describes the use of a probability sample to survey differential fertility. 475 women were randomly selected from the 1941 Census of Canada to provide tests of the existence of five differentials: income, present age, age by marriage, schooling and distance from a city. The sample was limited to one province and to two contrasting values of each of the five differentials under study. Significant differences are found for the effective distance as well as for age at marriage and schooling. This is taken as signifying that the diffusion of the small-family pattern has a spatial dimension.     

The demographic situation in the ESCAP region viewed in terms of social welfare. (Abstracted information from Committee on Population,Second Session,Bangkok, Thailand,December 13-19, 1978.)

The combined population of the ESCAP region is estimated to be growing by an annual increment of 50 million people, and is expected to reach an estimated 2936 million in 1990, when it will constitute 55.4% of the total world population. Continued population growth implies a demand for food, and the majority of the ESCAP countries have to depend on imports to meet their food requirements. Main problems are to improve the capability to produce more food, to adequately provide for health services, housing, and educational facilities for a fast expanding school-age population. With the continuing high rate of population growth the labor force will continue to increase and result in a high rate of unemployment. Population planning must be made an integral part of the over-all plans for socioeconomic development of the entire region.     

An analysis of the 1987 population situation in China]

Presented here is an analysis of some of the manually collected data from a 1% random sample of China's population taken on 7/1/87. 1)Population growth: The population grew 6.36% from 1982-87 to give a total population of 1,072,330,000. Even though the average annual growth rate of 1.24% during these years is slower than the growth rate of the 1950s and 1960s, this does not mean that China can be complacent about it. Due to China's large population base, every year its population increases by about 13,000,000, with serious implications for consumerism, education and labor. The natural rate of growth dropped during 1982-84, but by 1987, it had increased again to 1981 levels. If China is to limit its population to 1.25 billion by 2000, the average annual growth rate must remain below 1.23%, which is lower than the figures of recent years. 2) Sex differences: the population was 51.1% male and 48.9% female. 3) Age structure: 28.68% of the population were 14 years and younger; 65.86% were between 15-64 years; 5.46% were 65 years and older. The median age was 24.2 years. The percentage of the 0-14 year bracket dropped about 7.6% from 1953-87, while the 15-64 year olds increased 6.6% and the 65 years and older group increased 1%. On the surface, a 1% increase of the aged would not present a problem to China taken as a whole. However, when densely populated areas such as Shanghai are looked at, the situation demands immediate attention. 4) Ethnic groups: 92% of the population were Han. Minorities increased 5% annually between 1982-87 to comprise 8% of the population. This rapid growth among minorities is due in part to official permission for families to bear more than one child, and to better sanitary and medical attention. 6) Population distribution: 37.1% of the population lived in urban areas, as compared with 10% in 1949. By 1990 the urban population could reach 40%, creating serious social, economic and political pressure on cities.     

北京市流动儿童少年状况分析

本文根据北京市 1997年外来人口普查等资料对北京市流动儿童少年人口的基本状况 ,从人口规模、生活的户类型、外来人口最关心和希望解决的问题、北京市有关学校收费过高是造成 6至15岁流动儿童少年“未上学”的首要原因、在京滞留时间状况、流动儿童少年的童工状况等进行了分析和概括 ,由此希望引起社会各界对流动儿童少年的广泛关注     

An American in Berlin: reflections on the German demographic challenge, immigration, and national identity

The “German Demographic Challenge”—an aging society, low birth rates, a falling population size, and a shrinking working-age population—also affects less tangible facets of Germany’s future because these issues may have implications for how Germans see themselves and how they define themselves as a nation-state. This paper explores the complex relationships between national identity, migration, and other population processes in the German context. One consequence of the demographic challenge, acting in concert with immigration, is that the German population will become more diverse over time. Perhaps the more difficult challenge will be how Germany comes to terms with itself given the population changes it will experience.     

Plague mortality rates by age and sex in the parish of St. Botolph's without Bishopsgate, London, 1603

Abstract The Bills of Mortality for London were instituted at least as early as 1528 but only a few figures survive before the extant annual series that begins in 1603. Ages at death, even in broad groups of ages, are not generally available until 1728, which is more than 50 years too late to give us any inkling of the ages, if any, at which people were specially susceptible to plague. There are reports, it is true, that suggest that children suffered from plague more severely than adults, at least on certain occasions (as in 1361 or 1418 for example), but nothing more precise. The legend of the Pied Piper of Hamelin may be a folk-memory of a plague (possibly in 1284) that killed mainly the children of the town, for the connection between infestation of rats and the loss of children suggests some kind of plague outbreak. Pollitzer concludes that no particular age group is specially liable to plague, and attributes all differences observed to different risks of exposure. The determinants of the severity of an outbreak would therefore be the environmental details and social customs.     

An overview of demographic analysis as a method for evaluating census coverage in the United States

"Since the 1950 U.S. census, demographic methods based on the fundamental balancing equation of demography have played an important role in the evaluation of the census net undercount. Application of this set of methods, called demographic analysis, results in national estimates of the net undercount for age-race-sex groups. Although results of demographic analysis are readily available in Bureau of the Census publications, the procedures used to estimate each of the components of population change are less well-known. In this paper we review the historical foundation of demographic analysis, beginning with Coale's 1950 census evaluation project and concluding with the recent evaluation of the 1990 census. We examine each of the components of the method, how their estimation has changed over time, and how they were estimated for the 1990 census."     

Comments on R. H. Gray's 'The decline in mortality in Ceylon and the demographic effects of malaria control'

Abstract With his article 'The Decline in Mortality in Ceylon and the Demographic Effects of Malaria Control', R. H. Gray has added a new contribution to the long discussion of the effects of malaria eradication on the abrupt mortality decline experienced by Ceylon immediately after World War II. He has used new information and at the same time introduced slight modifications in the statistical procedures designed to evaluate the validity of the hypothesis. However, certain aspects of his article need to be clarified; they are related to the methodology employed and to the theoretical approach used.     

Plague mortality rates by age and sex in the parish of St. Botolph's without Bishopsgate,London, 1603

The Bills of Mortality for London were instituted at least as early as 1528 but only a few figures survive before the extant annual series that begins in 1603. Ages at death, even in broad groups of ages, are not generally available until 1728, which is more than 50 years too late to give us any inkling of the ages, if any, at which people were specially susceptible to plague. There are reports, it is true, that suggest that children suffered from plague more severely than adults, at least on certain occasions (as in 1361 or 1418 for example), but nothing more precise. The legend of the Pied Piper of Hamelin may be a folk-memory of a plague (possibly in 1284) that killed mainly the children of the town, for the connection between infestation of rats and the loss of children suggests some kind of plague outbreak. Pollitzer concludes that no particular age group is specially liable to plague, and attributes all differences observed to different risks of exposure. The determinants of the severity of an outbreak would therefore be the environmental details and social customs.     

Age estimation from the number of teeth erupted in young children: An aid to demographic surveys

The reporting of children's ages by parents is surprisingly inaccurate in many innumerate societies, but accurate knowledge of age is important for estimating recent changes in demographic rates. The timing of the eruption of children's teeth is largely independent of environmental influences and can provide a relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of a child's age. We have collected published data from 42 studies of children's dentition and have transformed them into estimates of age for children with particular numbers of teeth. We present estimates for different populations, but the lack of significant differences between these estimates justifies the use of a standard set.     

Comment on 'expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60'

Abstract In D. Peter Mazur's recent article, 'Expectancy of Life at Birth in 36 Nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-1960', crude rates of death and expectancies of life for nationalities are derived from a scant base of data that includes crude rates of natural increase for administrative units and various ratios of composition of the populations of both administrative units and nationalities. Students of Soviet demography genuinely appreciate Mazur's attempt to derive rich results from meagre data. Of course, to do this strong assumptions are required and Mazur warns that 'the quantitative results ... are valid only to the extent that the underlying methodology is theoretically sound'. One way to test the quantitative results is to examine how well the crude death rates for the nationalities calculated by Mazur reproduce the crude death rates for administrative units with which Mazur started. Mazur feels that the estimated death rates for nationalities closely agree with the death rates for administrative areas. The present author is sceptical. Application of the method described below does not show close correspondence, and this matter, which is crucial in the evaluation of Mazur's results, seems problematical.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

Abstract In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians. In essence, the life table function e(0) was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960. Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians.

In essence, the life table function e₀ was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960.

Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Legal images of the family in the United States: An exercise in using law as data

The primary concern of the sociology of law properly has been the analysis of legal processes, professions, and institutions. Most sociologists who are not sociologists of law do not realize the usefulness of the substantive law as a source of data concerning their areas of interest. The utility of law as a source of data is illustrated with examples from recent law affecting the family. These examples are used to suggest a model of the relationship between the family as a unit, its members as individuals, and the larger society. In this model, the primary focus is on individuals but emphasis is given to the family as an important source of individual rights and expectations.     

Apostles and Zionists: the influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or "Spirit-type" churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.