中国三代直系家庭变迁:年龄、时期、队列视角的观察

发掘中国社会特有的家庭结构变迁模式是理解中国家庭变动特征的关键,也是许多研究所关注的焦点。本研究基于9期的中国营养追踪调查(1989-2011)数据,利用分层交叉年龄、时期和队列效应模型观察我国三代直系家庭在三个时间维度上的演变趋势。研究发现在年龄维度上婴幼儿以及老年阶段仍然拥有较高的三代直系家庭比例,这体现了直系家庭在抚幼和养老方面发挥的重要功能。在时期维度上三代直系家庭比例并没有展示出显著的变化趋势。相较于时期,嵌入社会变迁中的队列趋势是三代直系家庭结构变迁更为重要的驱动力。队列的三代直系家庭比例在整体上呈现出U型趋势,较老的队列处于直系家庭的可能性逐渐下降,而幼儿队列处于直系家庭的可能性不断上升。该趋势代表了老龄群体的"去直系化"与幼儿群体的"直系化"倾向。研究结果表明,在私人领域,经济的发展和观念的转变这些现代化因素仍然在促成家庭的小型化;在公共领域由于家庭职能(抚幼和养老)在向社会职能转变过程中的波折与分化,个体家庭会调整结构形态以应对不同阶段社会资源与风险的变化,从而塑造出了我国三代直系家庭结构的变迁模式。这不仅仅代表了传统和现代的博弈与融合,更是代表了一种家庭的实用主义倾向。     

The Nonlinear Relationship Between Education and Mortality: An Examination of Cohort, Race/Ethnic, and Gender Differences

Researchers investigating the relationship between education and mortality in industrialized countries have consistently shown that higher levels of education are associated with decreased mortality risk. The shape of the education–mortality relationship and how it varies by demographic group have been examined less frequently. Using the U.S. National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files, which link the 1986 through 2004 NHIS to the National Death Index through 2006, we examine the shape of the education–mortality curve by cohort, race/ethnicity, and gender. Whereas traditional regression models assume a constrained functional form for the dependence of education and mortality, in most cases semiparametric models allow us to more accurately describe how the association varies by cohort, both between and within race/ethnic and gender subpopulations. Notably, we find significant changes over time in both the shape and the magnitude of the education–mortality gradient across cohorts of women and white men, but little change among younger cohorts of black men. Such insights into demographic patterns in education and mortality can ultimately help increase life expectancies.     

人口年龄分布与中国居民劳动收入变动研究

文章从代际和年龄角度定量分析了中国居民劳动收入变动模式。研究结果表明,劳动收入变动的年龄效应和代际效应皆表现出明显的线性趋增,且前者大于后者。收入不平等的年龄效应表现出非线性的、加速递增趋势,而不平等的代际效应稳定上升,1960年之后出生队列不平等程度较高。此外,居民劳动收入变动也表现出明显的城乡差异,比较而言,城镇居民收入模式更具优势。由于代际效应和城乡差异是收入差异的重要原因,因此促进代际公平的养老保险和统筹城乡发展的政策应受到充分重视。     

异质性、家庭支持与中国高龄老人的死亡率:虚弱度模型的应用

本文通过虚弱度模型展示了中国高龄老人死亡率模式中的个体异质性,女性内部异质性远大于男性。在控制未观测异质性后,结果显示:男性和女性高龄老人的基准死亡率呈现交叉效应;配偶对男性高龄老人的存活存在显著的保护作用,已婚有偶的男性高龄老人死亡风险较之无偶的低22%(=1-e-0.253);除日常照料和精神慰藉外,子女对烟酒嗜好等不健康生活方式的监督,对男性高龄老人的存活也可能存在不可替代的保护作用。女性高龄老人在社会支持网络依赖、社会经济地位与健康生活方式上迥异于男性,使得配偶和子女以上支持作用并不显著。     

Age–Period–Cohort Decomposition of U.S. and Japanese Birth Rates

Aggregate data on birth rates in the U.S. and Japan, classified by period and by age, are decomposed into age, period, and cohort effects using Bayesian cohort models that were developed to overcome the identification problem in cohort analysis. Main findings are fivefold. First, age, period, and cohort effects movements are all larger in Japan than in the U.S. Second, in both countries, age effects are the largest and are roughly consistent with the life-cycle movements showing an inverted U shape. Third, Easterlin’s cohort size hypothesis roughly fits U.S. birth rates but not Japanese birth rates. Fourth, despite rapid decline of total fertility rates in Japan in last three decades, period effects have been on an upward trend since the early 1990s. Finally, upward and downward cohort effects movements in Japan are derived by rapid economic growth and the Equal Employment Opportunity Law, respectively.     

Educational Inequality in Adult Mortality: An Assessment with Death Certificate Data from Michigan

Education was added to the U.S. Standard Certificate of Death in 1989. The current study uses Michigan’s 1989–1991 death certificates, together with the 1990 Census, to evaluate the quality of data on education from death certificates and to examine educational differences in mortality rates. With log-rates modeling, we systematically analyze the variability in educational differences in mortality by race and sex across the adult life cycle. The relative differences in mortality rates between educational levels decline with age at the same pace for all sex and race categories. Women gain a slightly greater reduction in mortality than men by reaching the secondary-education level, but a modestly smaller reduction by advancing beyond it. Blacks show a reduction in predicted mortality rates comparable to whites’ by moving from the secondary to the postsecondary level of education but experience less reduction than whites by moving from the primary to the secondary level. Thus, the secular decline in mortality rates that generally accompanies historical improvements in education might actually be associated with an increase in the relative differences between blacks’ and whites’ mortality. We discuss limitations of the data and directions for future research.     

Demographic Determinants of Infant and Early Child Mortality: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper we examine the relative importance of a number of demographic determinants of infant and early child mortality using information from 39 World Fertility Survey countries. We include sex of the child, age of the mother at the time of the birth, birth order, mother's educational level and a number of indicators of spacing of adjacent births among the correlates of chances of survival for children below the age of five years. Mortality of firstborn children and of those born to teenage mothers is shown to be higher than average; that of later children and those of older mothers was not much higher than average, once other factors are controlled. Effects of poor birth-spacing persist even after other factors have been controlled, and are similar where a sib was born during the two years preceding the birth of the child, regardless of the survival status of that sib; however, mortality was higher when that sib had died, due to increased familial risks of mortality. Rapid subsequent births also raise mortality for their earlier sibs. The findings are generally remarkably consistent in a wide range of countries and associated mortality conditions, although attention is drawn to a few interesting geographically clustered exceptions which deserve further investigation. The study leaves little room for doubt that poor child-spacing is clearly linked to decreased survival chances.     

Educational Attainment and Adult Mortality in the United States: A Systematic Analysis of Functional Form

A vast literature has documented the inverse association between educational attainment and U.S. adult mortality risk but given little attention to identifying the optimal functional form of the association. A theoretical explanation of the association hinges on our ability to describe it empirically. Using the 1979–1998 National Longitudinal Mortality Study for non-Hispanic white and black adults aged 25–100 years during the mortality follow-up period (N = 1,008,215), we evaluated 13 functional forms across race-gender-age subgroups to determine which form(s) best captured the association. Results revealed that the preferred functional form includes a linear decline in mortality risk from 0 to 11 years of education, followed by a step-change reduction in mortality risk upon attainment of a high school diploma, at which point mortality risk resumes a linear decline but with a steeper slope than that prior to a high school diploma. The findings provide important clues for theoretical development of explanatory mechanisms: an explanation for the selected functional form may require integrating a credentialist perspective to explain the step-change reduction in mortality risk upon attainment of a high school diploma, with a human capital perspective to explain the linear declines before and after a high school diploma.     

Aging in the Context of Cohort Evolution and Mortality Selection

This study examines historical patterns of aging through the perspectives of cohort evolution and mortality selection, where the former emphasizes the correlation across cohorts in the age dependence of mortality rates, and the latter emphasizes cohort change in the acceleration of mortality over the life course. In the analysis of historical cohort mortality data, I find support for both perspectives. The rate of demographic aging, or the rate at which mortality accelerates past age 70, is not fixed across cohorts; rather, it is affected by the extent of mortality selection at young and late ages. This causes later cohorts to have higher rates of demographic aging than earlier cohorts. The rate of biological aging, approximating the rate of the senescence process, significantly declined between the mid- and late-nineteenth century birth cohorts and stabilized afterward. Unlike the rate of demographic aging, the rate of biological aging is not affected by mortality selection earlier in the life course but rather by cross-cohort changes in young-age mortality, which cause lower rates of biological aging in old age among later cohorts. These findings enrich theories of cohort evolution and have implications for the study of limits on the human lifespan and evolution of aging.     

中国老年人虚弱指数与死亡风险及队列差异

利用中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查（ CLHLS ）2002－2011年跟踪调查数据,通过多种健康指标构建中国老年人虚弱指数,运用增长曲线模型和Cox等比例风险函数的研究方法,对中国老年人虚弱指数和死亡风险及其队列差异进行了深入分析。研究发现,女性虚弱指数比男性高,增长速度也比男性快,但是死亡风险比男性低;出生较晚的队列与出生早的队列相比,虚弱指数会更高,他们的增长程度更快;受教育程度高的老年人虚弱指数低,但是其增长速度却比受教育程度低的老年人要高。     

Uncrossing the U.S. Black-White Mortality Crossover: The Role of Cohort Forces in Life Course Mortality Risk

In this article, I examine the black-white crossover in U.S. adult all-cause mortality, emphasizing how cohort effects condition age-specific estimates of mortality risk. I employ hierarchical age-period-cohort methods on the National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files between 1986 and 2006 to show that the black-white mortality crossover can be uncrossed by factoring out period and cohort effects of mortality risk. That is, when controlling for variations in cohort and period patterns of U.S. adult mortality, the estimated age effects of non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult mortality risk do not cross at any age. This is the case for both men and women. Further, results show that nearly all the recent temporal change in U.S. adult mortality risk was cohort driven. The findings support the contention that the non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult populations experienced disparate cohort patterns of mortality risk and that these different experiences are driving the convergence and crossover of mortality risk at older ages.     

2000年以来中国人口死亡水平分死因研究

文章分析了21世纪初中国人口的死亡水平,并对死因进行分类,对分死因类别死亡率及其构成进行深入的研究,同时分解了每种死因类别对平均预期寿命变化的影响,并利用去死因生命表,通过分析去某一死因类别后平均预期寿命的变化研究各死因类别。     

Neighborhood Concentrated Disadvantage and Adult Mortality: Insights for Racial and Ethnic Differences

While racial and ethnic differences in mortality are pervasive and well documented, less is known about how mortality risk varies by neighborhood socioeconomic status across racial and ethnic identity. We conducted a prospective analysis on a sample of adults living at or below 300% poverty with 8 years of the National Health Interview Survey (N = 159,400) linked to 11,600 deaths to examine the association between neighborhood disadvantage and mortality for non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and U.S.- and foreign-born Hispanics. Using multilevel logistic regression, we find that the probability of death from any cause for lower-income adults is higher in more-disadvantaged neighborhoods, compared to less-disadvantaged neighborhoods, but only for whites. The adjusted likelihood of death for blacks and foreign-born Hispanics is not associated with neighborhood disadvantage, and the likelihood of death for U.S.-born Hispanics is lower in more-disadvantaged neighborhoods. While future research and policy should focus on improving health-promoting resources in all communities, care should be given to better understanding why race/ethnic groups have differential mortality returns with respect to area-specific socioeconomic conditions.     

Age Cohort Differences in the Developmental Milestones of Gay Men

ABSTRACT

As the social context in which gay men live changes due to greater visibility, greater acceptance, and easier access to gay subculture, gay males may self-identify and take part in gay social activities at earlier ages than in the past. This study examined whether developmental milestones associated with sexual orientation for gay men have changed over the past several decades. A large and diverse sample of 2,402 gay men who responded to a 1994 survey published in a national magazine provided retrospective information on the age at which they reached individual psychological, social, and sexual behavior developmental milestones. We found evidence that individual psychological and sexual behavior milestones (e.g., awareness of attraction to males, having an orgasm with other male) are slowly moving toward earlier chronological ages (by 1 year of age every 8–25 years, p?<?0.05), whereas social milestones (e.g., coming out) are moving more rapidly in a similar direction (by 1 year of age every 2–5 years, p?<?0.001). The authors perform an innovative sensitivity test to demonstrate the persistence of the finding after correcting for the bias attributable to underrepresentation of those who have not yet self-identified as gay in such samples.     

Structural and Cognitive Aspects of Social Capital and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis of Cohort Studies

Social capital covers different characteristics such as social networks, social participation, social support and trust. The aim of this study was to explore which aspects of social capital were predictive of mortality. Criteria for inclusion in the meta-analysis were: population based observational cohort studies (follow-up ≥5 years); study sample included the adult population; parts of social capital as the primary exposure variable of interest; reported a mortality outcome; and sample size >1,000 individuals. Twenty studies provided eligible data for the meta-analyses. A random effect model was used to estimate the combined overall hazard rate ratio effects of structural social capital such as social participation and social networks, and cognitive social capital including social support and trust in relation to mortality. The results showed that social participation and social networks were negatively associated with mortality. The impact of social networks attenuated somewhat when controlling for gender and age. While trust also appeared to be negatively associated with mortality, we remain cautious with this conclusion, since only two studies provided eligible data. Perceived social support failed to show a significant impact upon mortality. The findings suggest that people who engage socially and report frequent contacts with friends and family live longer.     

教育如何影响农村劳动力转移--基于年龄与世代效应的分析

本研究分析了教育是如何影响农村劳动力在纯务农、兼业和纯务工之间的就业选择,以及该选择随年龄增长和世代更替的演变趋势。研究发现,教育在总体上促进了非农就业,但在不同世代的生命历程中有着不尽相同的作用机制。在较早出生的世代中,教育对兼业和纯务工的促进作用是一致的。但在晚近出生的世代中,更高的教育水平对纯务工就业有着非常显著的影响,而对兼业选择影响甚微。在老一代农民中,教育对兼业和纯务工的促进作用随年龄增长而有所减弱;而在新一代农民中,教育对纯务工的促进作用随着年龄增长而迅速加强,呈现教育的积累性优势。此外,老一代农民的生命历程中有一个从务工到务农的回归;新一代农民向非农行业转移则呈现不可逆的趋势,教育对此起到了促进作用。     

Estimation of Adult Mortality From Orphanhood Before and Since Marriage

The prevalence of intentional control of reproduction increases in developing countries in which there is rapid modernization, and there are also important changes in breastfeeding practices. The effects of increased contraception and reduced breastfeeding on the pace and level of fertility and on the patterns and levels of infant and early childhood mortality are in opposite directions. In this paper we propose a technique to estimate the net effects of such changes on the natural rate of increase, and to assess the gross contribution of the various components of change. Applications of the technique to Latin American countries indicate that changes in fertility due to higher contraceptive prevalence are dominant, but that they are partially offset by the indirect effects on fertility of changes in breastfeeding. Likewise, changes in breastfeeding have the strongest direct impact on infant mortality, but are partially offset by the beneficial effects of a more favourable pace of childbearing induced by higher contraceptive prevalence.     

Trends and Socioeconomic Gradients in Adult Mortality around the Developing World

We combine data from 84 Demographic and Health Surveys from 46 countries to analyze trends and socioeconomic differences in adult mortality, calculating mortality based on the sibling mortality reports collected from female respondents aged 15–49. The analysis yields four main findings. First, adult mortality is different from child mortality: while under‐5 mortality shows a definite improving trend over time, adult mortality does not, especially in sub‐Saharan Africa. The second main finding is the increase in adult mortality in sub‐Saharan African countries. The increase is dramatic among those most affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Mortality rates in the highest HIV‐prevalence countries of southern Africa exceed those in countries that experienced episodes of armed conflict. Third, even in sub‐Saharan countries where HIV prevalence is not as high, mortality rates appear to be at best stagnating, and even increasing in several cases. Finally, the main dimension along which mortality appears to differ in the aggregate is by sex. Adult mortality rates in sub‐Saharan Africa have risen substantially higher for men than for women—especially so in the high HIV‐prevalence countries. On the whole, the data do not show large gaps by urban/rural residence or by school attainment.     

Adult Mortality From Sibling Survival Data: A Reappraisal of Selection Biases

Because of incomplete registration of deaths in most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, data on the survival of close relatives constitute the cornerstone of estimates of adult mortality. Since 1990, sibling histories have been widely collected in Demographic and Health Surveys and are increasingly being relied upon to estimate both general and maternal mortality. Until recently, the use of sibling histories was thought to lead to underestimates of mortality, but a more optimistic view in the literature emerged with the development by Gakidou and King (Demography 43:569–585, 2006) of corrections for selection biases. Based on microsimulations, this article shows that Gakidou and King’s weighting scheme has been incorrectly applied to survey data, leading to overestimates of mortality, especially for males. The evidence for an association between mortality and sibship size in adulthood is reviewed. Female mortality appears to decline slightly with the number of surviving sisters, although this could be an artifact of severe recall errors in larger sibships or familial clustering of deaths. Under most circumstances, corrections for selection biases should have only a modest effect on sibling estimates.