Comment on ‘minority status and family size: A comparison of explanations’ by R. Jiobu and H. Marshall

Demographers traditionally have paid little attention to tests of significance. This neglect presumably carried little risk so long as analyses used full-count census data or vital statistics data (typically with very large numbers) and as long as inter-group differences in demographic variables were larger than they are in many contexts to-day.² For a variety of reasons, this attitude may no longer be justified.     

A comment on ‘social and economic factors in Hong Kong's fertility decline’ by Sui-Ying Wat and R. W. Hodge

The recent article by Wat and Hodge appears to make incorrect inferences about the relation of certain social and economic indicators (infant mortality, employment opportunities for women, and education) to Hong Kong's fertility decline, based on a multiple regression of these variables to the crude birth rate of Hong Kong for 1951–1967. Such modernization measures probably have at least a long-run causal relation to fertility decline. It is also possible that the family planning programme ofHong Kong may have added little to the effects, as the authors suggest. However, I do not believe that their multiple regression analysis establishes these conclusions.     

Comment on ‘expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958–60’

In D. Peter Mazur's recent article, ‘Expectancy of Life at Birth in 36 Nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958–1960’, crude rates of death and expectancies of life for nationalities are derived from a scant base of data that includes crude rates of natural increase for administrative units and various ratios of composition of the populations of both administrative units and nationalities. Students of Soviet demography genuinely appreciate Mazur's attempt to derive rich results from meagre data. Of course, to do this strong assumptions are required and Mazur warns that ‘the quantitative results ... are valid only to the extent that the underlying methodology is theoretically sound’. One way to test the quantitative results is to examine how well the crude death rates for the nationalities calculated by Mazur reproduce the crude death rates for administrative units with which Mazur started. Mazur feels that the estimated death rates for nationalities closely agree with the death rates for administrative areas. The present author is sceptical. Application of the method described below does not show close correspondence, and this matter, which is crucial in the evaluation of Mazur's results, seems problematical.     

Comment on ‘Facts and Artifacts in the Study of Intra-Uterine Mortality: A Reconsideration from Pregnancy Histories’ by Henri Léridon1

Extract

I have suggested that at a given birth order the probability of having a further pregnancy is greater when the last pregnancy had been spontaneously aborted than when it resulted in a birth.² Léridon,³in the course of a valuable paper on foetal wastage, presents data which, according to him, impugn my suggestion. I would like to question his claim.     

Commentary on ‘Science,Measurement, and Validity: Is Completion of Samuel Messick's Synthesis Possible?’ by Keith A. Markus

Social Indicators Research -     

Stopping the ‘War on the Car’: Neoliberalism,Fordism, and the Politics of Automobility in Toronto

Abstract

This article interrogates the politics of automobility in Toronto under the regime of mayor Rob Ford, who came to power in 2010 promising to ‘stop the war on the car.’ The election of Ford, and the thrust of his subsequent agenda, came as a surprise to many in the city, due to Toronto’s reputation as a cosmopolitan diverse transit-friendly global city. The Toronto case study allows for the analysis of the relationships between Fordism, automobility, and the politics and rationalities of neoliberalism. Instead of seeing neoliberalism as something external or imposed, its contested politics are rooted in diverging social and economic interests directly derived from Fordism and the system of automobility, with opposing political-economic factions both drawing on different elements of neoliberalism. Authoritarian populist neoliberal regimes like the Ford administration in Toronto, and the roll-back austerity they promote, are not antithetical to automobile Fordism, but on the contrary represent an attempt to protect and reinvigorate it in the face of the forces of de-industrialization and financialization. As such they receive their support from social groups irrevocably invested in the continuation, and irrationalities, of the Fordist system of automobility. This has implications for how the politics of neoliberalism might unfold in the future.     

The Impact of Sense of Community in the School,Social Skills,and Exposure to Aggression and Victimization on Students’ Well-Being

Research suggests that sense of community in the school is a promising construct in terms of its ability to promote students’ well-being. However, mechanisms behind and the potential benefits of school sense of community have not been studied in detail. This cross-sectional study tested a model which examined the role of sense of community in the school, social skills, exposure to aggression, and victimization in shaping students’ well-being. The sample consisted of 1076 students from 22 public middle schools and 724 students from 22 public high schools located in the Italian Region of Liguria. Using a Bayesian estimation for a structural equation model, results showed that sense of community in the school directly predicted students’ social skills, exposure to aggression, and well-being and, indirectly (through social skills and exposure to aggression), victimization. In addition, we found that social skills were related to victimization. Finally, results showed that victimization was predicted by exposure to aggression and predicted well-being. The current study suggests that sense of community in the school and social skills are key variables for interventions that aim to prevent aggressive behaviors at school and to increase students’ well-being.     

The influence of wives’ and husbands’ fertility preferences on progression to a third birth in Nepal, 1997–2009

As couples across the globe increasingly exercise conscious control over their reproduction, both spouses’ family-size preferences have the opportunity to influence their fertility. Using couple-level measures of rural Nepalese spouses’ family-size preferences and more than a decade of monthly panel data collected subsequently on fertility outcomes, we investigate how both spouses’ preferences influence progression to a third birth in a country where the widely professed ideal family size is two children. Contrary to expectations based on women's relative disadvantage, we find that it is wives’ preferences that drive couples’ progression to a third birth. We find also that the influence of wives’ preferences is not explained by contraceptive use but that this influence is moderated by couple communication about family planning. Wives’ preferences drive progression to a third birth among couples who had discussed how many children to have.     

‘When and where does being Welsh matter to me?’ The influence of cross-border mobilities on constructions of sub-national belonging in the lives of Welsh Muslims*

This article will discuss how Welsh Muslims construct what a sense of place means to them through their cross-border mobility between England and Wales, and how this contributes to the ongoing re-construction of a plural understanding of nationhood in an era of diversity. To understand when and where being Welsh matters to Welsh Muslims, it will explore how mobility rather than being the antithesis of belonging, can be used as an essential tool in highlighting how perceptions of the nation, sub-state nation, home and place are influenced and understood.     

Whatever Happened to Social Indicators in Africa? Whatever Happened Indeed! A Developing World Perspective on the Kenneth C. Land and Alex C. Michalos Report on ‘Fifty Years After the Social Indicators Movement’

Africa is a latecomer to the Social Indicators Movement. The first social indicators for Third World countries were developed by outsiders and covered almost exclusively topics related to basic needs and development. In response to Kenneth Land’s and Alex Michalos’ historical assessment and their agenda for future ‘social indicators/quality of life/well-being’ research, the commentary traces how South Africa and sub-Saharan countries—with a little help from many friends who are pioneers in the movement—have succeeded in developing their own home-grown social indicators movement. Addressing some of the themes outlined in the agenda that Land and Michalos set for future research, the commentary discusses the importance of monitoring social change occurring in African society in a ‘post-industrialized and much more globalized, and digitized-computerized-roboticized’ era: How will new values and norms impact on the quality of life of future generations of African people?     

The influence of financial, human and social capital on Japanese men’s and women’s health in single- and two-parent family structures

Large-scale demographic changes have been occurring in Japan over the last few decades. During this time, the proportion of two-parent (nuclear) and single-parent families have doubled. Despite this rapid increase, the health of individuals in these family structures have received limited attention, as the focus has been directed towards the health of Japan’s aging society and the health implications related to the decline in multigenerational households. However, researchers and policy planners cannot afford to overlook issues that influence the health of men and women in single- and two-parent family structures, not only because these families have become increasingly common throughout the nation, but also because the western literature has indicated that the health of families are largely influenced by the gender-by-family structure divide. Through logistic regression models, using the 1999 Nationwide Family Survey, this paper examines how financial, human and social capital influences the likelihood of good health among men and women in single- and two-parent families. As was expected, key determinants in predicting good health amongst these four sub-groups of parents were found. While parents in two-parent families were the least influenced by various measures of capital, these same measures were found to be significant in predicting good health amongst fathers, and more so mothers, in single-parent families.