A rejoinder to S. K. Datta and J. B. Nugent

Abstract Extract The question of old-age security as a motivation for fertility in less-developed rural areas can be put in clearer perspective by pausing to consider the changing roles of land and offspring under the influence of fundamental demographic upheaval. Under the pre-transition regime, one generation approximately replaced the preceding one, particularly once unused but usable land became scarce and the possibility of expanding farm operations became remote. Judging from the settlement patterns and the history of the Maharashtrian study area, such a circumstance probably obtained long before the secular drop in mortality began. During this period, a single son, typically, would survive to adulthood, gradually assuming control of the father's land (or the father's trade, among non-agriculturalists) and, if the father lived long enough, would eventually be a source of security in the father's old age. It is not inappropriate to mention that this generational cycle no doubt fostered a strong urge to leave the family land to a son, so that a sonless farmer would keenly feel a lack of fulfilment. In fact, responses to certain survey questions suggest that ancestral land and male progeny are still somehow connected, according to the way village men think, to their sense of immortality. It would be hard, consequently, to separate old-age security, the idea of 'continuing a lineage', and the sense of immortality conferred by owning land into distinct motives for conceiving children.     

我国城镇人口劳动生命表

劳动生命表反映经济活动人口预期的终生劳动参与年限。可以为社会保障政策的制定提供一定的数据依据．然而我国至今没有一套严格意义的城镇劳动生命表。本文借用2000年人口普查资料制作我国市和镇人口的劳动生命表,统计出死亡因素对劳动参与的影响,并进一步计算出经济活动人口的平均预期失业年限和就业年限,为健全养老保障制度和失业保险制度提供更为详细的资料支持。     

Another Gendered Demographic Dividend: Adjusting to a Future without Sons

Sonless families may pose a gendered demographic dividend. As fertility declines, families with only daughters are likely to grow. In turn, patriarchal family systems may weaken when many families are unable to engage in patriarchal practices. I examine some of these theorized dynamics in India. Sonless families did grow as fertility declined, reaching 10 percent in India as a whole in 2015 and approaching 20 percent in states with earlier fertility declines. I also identify a substantial influence of children's sex on mothers’ expectations of old-age support. Using panel data from the India Human Development Survey, I compare women's expectations after they had children to earlier expectations when they did not yet have children. Women with sons kept or further embraced patriarchal expectations that a son would provide support. Sonless mothers largely gave up patriarchal expectations, turning to daughters or away from children altogether.     

Mortality level,desired family size,and population increase: Comment

In this paper an attempt is made to elaborate on the behavioral assumptions underlying a simulation model published in a previous volume of this journal (Heer and Smith, 1968). The present paper contains a discussion of the ways in which a fall in the death rate of children will affect the desirability of another birth if the family's objective is to have a son surviving to the father's sixty-fifth birthday. The death rate affects both the expected costs of and benefits from an additional birth. An examination of the effects of a decline in child mortality indicates that the benefits from an additional birth fall and the expected costs rise as a result of the decline. Thus a death rate will eventually be reached where costs exceed benefits, and parents will not desire an additional pregnancy.     

中国农村养老保障的制度创新与农村人口发展

本文以城乡统筹社会保障改革的指导思想为指引,立足于中国农村人口转型的时代背景和发展趋势,结合国际农村社会保障最新发展趋势的分析,探讨中国农村养老保障制度的制度创新问题。文章认为当前农村应着眼于计生家庭、高龄人口及无子女家庭等重点人群,更加重视老年津贴、小额保险和特种储蓄等新兴政策工具,更好地实现社会养老保障同传统的家庭保障、村社集体互助组织等的有机结合。走出一条城乡之间相对独立而又良性互动的、有中国特色的养老保障之路。     

Economic transition,school expansion and educational inequality in China, 1990–2000

This paper examines the trends in educational stratification during China's economic reforms in the 1990s. Based on the sample data of population censuses in 1990 and 2000, school-age children were matched to their parents’ background information, and the effects of family background on their school enrollment and continuation were investigated. Results show that despite the substantial expansion of educational opportunities in the decade, family background continues to play an important role in determining school enrollment status and school transitions. During the decade, children of rural-hukou status became more disadvantaged compared to their urban counterparts, and the effect of their father's socioeconomic status on school enrollment was enhanced. Despite the fact that children of rural-hukou status gained relatively more opportunities at junior high school level, as a result of nationwide saturation at the 9-year compulsory education, the rural–urban gap in the likelihood of transition to senior high school level enlarged, and the effect of their father's socioeconomic status increased—even after controlling for regional variations in economic development.     

依赖与脆弱性：农民养老问题的一个实证分析——基于全国十个省份1000余位农民的调查数据

文章基于2009年全国十个省份30个行政村1000余位农民的调查数据，从“依赖性一脆弱性一养老困境”的逻辑关系出发．以农民养老的经济依赖途径为切入点。利用Multinomial Logistic回归模型，实证分析了农民养老的脆弱性及其影响因素。结果显示，那些同时具备女性、年龄较大、养儿防老观念比较强、家庭收入比较低、没有儿子、家庭整劳力比较少、纯农户和所在村经济情况比较差特征的农民，是依赖性最强的农民，他们面临的养老脆弱性程度也最高。由于现实生活中。全部具备上述所有条件的农民毕竟是少数。但农村社会政策刺定部门可以根据农民满足上述条件的多寡．来判断其养老脆弱性程度的高低。并以此为依据选择农村社会政策的重点关注对象。     

农地制度、土地依附效应与半城镇化问题研究 ——基于人口农村退出视角

研究的学术逻辑在于突破“城市融入”的惯常认识,从“农村退出”视角,探讨农地制度与半城镇化的关系,并试图破解劳动力意义上的“人地分离”与保障意义上的“人地依附”这一矛盾。中国的城镇化过程可以分解为农业退出、城市进入、农村退出三个阶段。本文重新修正了托达罗模型,并构建了人口农村退出模型。基于调查数据,本文通过构建logit、截面门槛、双Probit模型,证实农地制度引致农村人口对土地具有依附效应,土地禀赋对农村人口的退出决策具有显著抑制效应。     

Old-age security, religious celibacy, and aggregate fertility in a Tibetan population

Using the family system as a framework, this study investigates the connection between old-age security concerns and aggregate fertility in Sama and Lho, two ethnically Tibetan villages of highland Nepal. The microdemographic approach reveals a difference in family systems between the two villages that results in Sama having a significantly lower level of fertility than Lho. The key difference lies in the practice of Sama’s (but not Lho’s) householders of designating a daughter to be a nun, a strategy meant to retain female labour within the household and thereby guarantee a caretaker in old age. Although the effect of this practice on individual fertility is unclear, the comparison with Lho reveals how it sharply curtails aggregate fertility by preventing nearly one in five women from marrying. In this case the motivation to ensure old-age security acts as an unintentional preventive check on population growth. Comparisons with other societies illustrate how the population of Sama combines elements of both the historical European and Asian demographic experiences.     

新型农村社会养老保险替代率的实证研究

文章依据2009年国务院发布的《关于开展新型农村社会养老保险试点的指导意见》,运用保险精算的方法,构建出新农保替代率精算模型,并依据该模型对新农保替代率进行实证分析。通过分析提出以下建议：以农民人均纯收入作为缴费基数,实行比例费率制;鼓励农民尽早开始参保并保持长期缴费;鼓励参保农民选择较高的档次标准缴费;新农保个人账户基金应当适时进行市场化投资运营;继续强化土地保障和家庭保障的作用。     

人口老龄化背景下上海市发展型养老保险的制度完善研究

养老保险制度在社会保障制度中居于核心地位．其制度安排直接影响着整个社会保障制度甚至是区域经济的运行和走向。上海作为我国人口老龄化最为严重的城市之一,有必要率先探索并构建发展型的养老保险制度,实现养老保险在制度、区域、城乡层面的统筹。本文在分析了上海养老保险制度运行以及老年人口分布的基础上,总结了上海养老保险制度存在的问题．并就完善发展型养老保险制度提出了目标和对策。     

构建以照护为重心的基本养老体系 努力实现老有所养

为应对我国老龄化社会。党的十七大提出要把基本养老作为完善社会保障体系的一个重点来抓。照护具有综合性特点。在基本养老中处于重心地位,是健全完善基本养老体系的重要组成部分。加强照护工作,发展照护事业具有现实性、紧迫性,符合社会发展趋势。可从确立政府主体责任、大力发展照护机构,切实加强社区照护,努力培植照护文化等角度全方位确立起照护支持系统,切实提高基本养老质量,从而实现老有所养。同时,构建以照护为重心的基本养老体系．浙江有条件走在前列。     

The Study on the Relationship of the Weakening Son Preferenceand Social Economic Development in China

With the aging of population,the academic researches tend to focus on the size, structure, quality of the labor forces. This article, based on the data of 2012 CLDS, describes demographically the employment status of China＇s labor force by four types： employee,employer, self- employed and farming and analyzes the variations in the indicators of the 4 types employment status, such as human capital,working hours,work sites,income,social security, job evaluation and work values and identity of social class, etc. Understanding these variations is a great significance to the proper labor policy-making.     

Premarital childbearing in Thamaga Village,Botswana

This paper examines the diminished importance of marriage as a setting for childbearing in Botswana. It uses qualitative data gathered in Thamaga Village during 1995 to explore the cultural basis of this development. Marriage practices and traditional attitudes to marriage, childbearing and sexual relations are reviewed, and factors identified as having undermined them are discussed. Rational adaptation theory and social disorganization theory then provide a framework within which forces encouraging premarital childbearing in Thamaga are investigated. Both theories are found to be useful. Especially where women are older, premarital childbearing is often strategic and goaldirected, providing a sense of self-worth, labour and old-age security. In many other cases, however, it reflects spontaneous sexual activity generated by the undermining of social controls and inauspicious economic circumstances. Societal attitudes to premarital motherhood become less condemnatory after about age 25, as women are judged to have waited long enough for marriage.     

Living Arrangements and the Elderly: An Analysis of Old-Age Mortality by Household Structure in Casalguidi, 1819–1859

The elevated levels of protection, assistance, and care enjoyed by the elderly living in complex households has long been a key assumption of many family system theories. However, although this hypothesis has been demonstrated for contemporary contexts, quantitative evidence for past populations is particularly scarce, if not nonexistent. This article investigates the relationship between old-age mortality and living arrangements in a mid–nineteenth century Tuscan population, where the joint family system of sharecroppers coexisted alongside the nuclear system of day laborers. Our findings demonstrate that within complex households, the complexity of relationships, gender inequalities, and possible competition for care and resources among the most vulnerable household members—namely, the elderly and the young—weakens the assumption that the elderly benefitted from lower rates of old-age mortality.     

老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障的影响研究

本文从一个两期的世代交叠模型入手,分析了人口老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障支出的影响。在此基础上运用动态GMM模型对我国2000～2008年地区面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:第一,人均居民储蓄滞后项对基期储蓄的影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均居民储蓄的影响为负,上期老年人口抚养比对居民储蓄并没有显著影响。第二,人均养老保障支出滞后项对当期人均养老保障支出影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均养老保障支出有促进作用,而上期老年人口抚养比抑制了人均养老保障支出的增加。     

中国征地农民养老保障制度的经济学分析

文章分析、比较征地农民各种养老保障模式的优势与劣势,认为现阶段应以社会养老保险作为征地农民养老保障制度的基础模式,以其它模式作为养老保险金的筹措渠道。到目前为止,各地区的征地农民社会养老保险制度尚不完备,这是因为制度的运行环境还不具备,仍存在很多问题,在此尝试给出了各种问题的解决方案,并强调政府应承担的责任。     

人口“双龄化”背景下对我国养老保障制度建设方向调整的思考

我国人口发展呈现老龄化和高龄化的趋势,而人口的“双龄化”对社会养老保障提出了更高的要求,政府和社会不但要为老年人提供基本的养老金。而且还要提供高龄老人必要的老年服务;不但要着力保障“三无”、“五保”等特殊老人．而且还要关注占老年人口大多数的普通老人。从我国目前的社会保障建设看,基本养老金制度建设比较全面、系统,从制度设计层面覆盖了各种人群,而养老服务保障建设还显不足,尤其是面向广大普通老人的相关服务保障缺失。当前要加快养老保障制度建设转型。要以养老金制度为主向经济保障和服务保障制度并重的方向发展。服务保障对象应以特殊人群为主向特殊人群与普通人群并重的方向发展,应建立以政府引导、社会主办、民间参与的多层次养老服务保障体系。而社区服务保障具有经济性、便捷性及可及性等诸多优点．是广大普通老人获得养老服务保障的重要途径。     

A tentative discussion on the aim of Socialist population production]

The general goals of a Socialist population policy are first discussed. The author examines possible conflicts between society's needs in China and the wishes of individual families concerning the number of children they would like to have. The need to provide old-age security and to improve the quality of a smaller population through education is stressed.     

农民社会养老意愿和缴费能力分析——基于陕西省关中地区的调查

社会保障制度是有效的社会风险化解机制,对于以国家为主导的农民社会养老保障建设成功与否,不仅取决于未来国家对农村社会养老保障供给的数量与质量,更取决于农民社会养老保障制度的主要供给者——政府对农民真实需求的了解、把握与满足程度。调查地区农民在养老保障项目上可承受的支付金额的平均值为32.06元/月,农民在养老保障项目上的支付上限值为当地农民年人均纯收入的17.29%,高于此比例,则影响农民正常的生活水平,而农民普遍能够接受的适宜比例值为10.61%。