Children’s educational attainment,occupation, and income and their parents’ mortality

Using data from Finland, this paper contributes to a small but growing body of research regarding adult children's education, occupation, and income and their parents' mortality at ages 50+ in 1970–2007. Higher levels of children's education are associated with 30–36 per cent lower parental mortality at ages 50–75, controlling for parents' education, occupation, and income. This association is fully mediated by children's occupation and income, except for cancer mortality. Having at least one child educated in healthcare is associated with 11–16 per cent lower all-cause mortality at ages 50–75, an association that is largely driven by mortality from cardiovascular diseases. Children's higher white-collar occupation and higher income is associated with 39–46 per cent lower mortality in the fully adjusted models. At ages 75+, these associations are much smaller overall and children's schooling remains more strongly associated with mortality than children's occupation or income.     

The spread of primary schooling in Sub-Saharan Africa: implications for fertility change

In 1980 Caldwell hypothesized that the time of the onset of the fertility transition in developing countries would be linked with the achievement of “mass formal schooling.” This article applies Demographic and Health Survey data to assess schooling patterns and trends for 23 sub‐Saharan African countries, using the percentage of 15–19‐year olds who have completed at least four years of schooling as an indicator of progress in education. As background to that assessment, the article includes a review of the sparse literature on the links between children's schooling and fertility decline. The analysis strongly supports Caldwell's hypothesis with empirical evidence of the much stronger negative relationship between fertility decline and grade 4 attainment in those countries that have attained mass‐schooling levels than in those that have not yet achieved such levels.     

The Effect of Parental Education on Marital Fertility in Developing Countries

The effects of parents' education on marital fertility are analysed with data from 38 Surveys in the WFS programme, and a two-parameter model in which the age-dependent level of fertility and a duration-dependent slope of fertility are estimated. The level parameter reflects post-partum infecundity and, in some populations, contraceptive spacing of births. The slope parameter reflects parity-specific birth control. The effects of the husband's and of the wife's education are estimated, both before and after adjustment for other socio-economic factors. The schooling of the wife emerges as a more decisive influence on fertility than that of the husband, with substantial net effects even after controlling for urban-rural residence, husband's socio-economic status and wife's employment. In Latin America and the Arab states, monotonic declines in marital fertility are found, as the level of the wife's education increases. However, in many Asian and African populations, the highest fertility is observed among women with moderate exposure to schooling, because the relaxation of traditional spacing mechanisms is not matched by increased birth control. This regional diversity cannot be explained convincingly by national levels of economic development or efforts made to popularize contraception, but appears to relect ill-understood cultural factors.     

Sex preference for children in German villages during the fertility transition

In the past, parents' sex preferences for their children have proved difficult to verify. This study used John Knodel's German village genealogies of couples married between 1815 and 1899 to investigate sex preferences for children during the fertility transition. Event history analyses of couples' propensity to progress to a fifth parity was used to test whether the probability of having additional children was influenced by the sex composition of surviving children. It appears that son preference influenced reproductive behaviour: couples having only girls experienced significantly higher transition rates than those having only boys or a mixed sibset. However, couples who married after about 1870 began to exhibit fertility behaviour consistent with the choice to have at least one surviving boy and girl. This result represents a surprisingly early move towards the symmetrical sex preference typical of modern European populations.     

The long-term impact of parents' childbearing decisions on children's self-esteem

We examine the long-term impact of parents' childbearing decisions on children's self-esteem. We focus on subjective aspects of the home environment in the creation of children's internalized sense of self-worth. Unique 23-year family panel data combining measures of mothers' childbearing, mothers' childbearing intentions, and children's self-esteem allow us to examine the overall links between parents' childbearing and children's self-esteem. The results demonstrate that parents' childbearing intentions can have a significant long-term impact on their children's self-esteem. Children who were unintended by their mothers have significantly lower self-esteem 23 years later. Our findings indicate that giving birth to an unintended child can have a long-term negative impact on subjective aspects of the child's well-being, at least in terms of self-esteem. Unintended childbearing has received an increasing amount of research attention in recent years.     

Parental wealth and children's outcomes over the life-course in Brazil: A propensity score matching analysis

Parental wealth – as distinct from income, education and other parental socioeconomic resources – may play a large role in children's socioeconomic outcomes, particularly in developing countries, characterized by economic volatility, a weak social safety net and limited access to credit. Using a propensity score matching approach, we examine the influence of parental wealth on adult children's schooling, school quality, occupational status, consumption level, and wealth holdings in Brazil. Findings suggest a substantial effect of parental wealth on all these outcomes, with a positive effect of even modest levels of wealth. The effect of parental wealth on occupational status is largely mediated by parental investment in more and better education for children. In contrast, the effect on children's consumption and wealth is largely unmediated by labor market resources and rewards, a pattern that is more pronounced for sons than for daughters. This suggests direct parental financial assistance. Sensitivity analysis indicates that hidden bias emerging from unobserved confounders should have to be unlikely large to question inference of a causal influence of high levels of parental wealth, although the influence of low levels of wealth may be more susceptible to hidden bias.     

Fertility preferences and subsequent childbearing in Africa and Asia: A synthesis of evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 populations

Survey data on fertility preferences have played a central but controversial role in fertility research and advocacy for family planning. We summarize evidence from longitudinal studies in 28 Asian and African populations on the relationship between preferences and subsequent childbearing. While we found no consistent association between women's desire to delay childbearing and subsequent fertility, the baseline desire of women to stop childbearing was a powerful predictor of subsequent fertility in all populations and increased in strength as overall contraceptive use in the study populations rose. Partners’ desire also exercised some influence but was of modest importance in most populations. However, the correspondence between desire to stop and behaviour was found to be far from perfect. Weak implementation of preferences by contraception is likely to be the major cause of this preference–behaviour discrepancy. Uncertainty and instability in preferences may also contribute to the discrepancy, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Men's influence on the onset and progress of fertility decline in Ghana, 1988–98

While lower fertility is commonly associated with women's reproductive autonomy, we demonstrate that the influence of men's education on reproductive decision-making increased during the first decade of rapid fertility decline in Ghana. Husband's education exerts a stronger influence on wife's fertility intentions than does her own education, and the magnitude of the effect of his education increased significantly from 1988 to 1998. Lower fertility in Ghana seems to be associated more with men's declining fertility desires than with women's increasing reproductive autonomy. Nevertheless, there is some indication that women's education may play a relatively greater role in reproductive decision-making as fertility decline progresses still further.     

High Fertility and Children's Schooling in Ghana: Sex Differences in Parental Contributions and Educational Outcomes

This paper explores the linkages at the family level between sustained high fertility and children's schooling in Ghana, in the context of a constrained economic environment and rising school fees. The unique feature of the paper is its exploration of the operational significance of alternative definitions of “sib size” – the number of “same-mother” siblings and “same-father” siblings – in relation to enrolment, grade attainment, and school drop-out for boys and girls of primary and secondary school age. The analysis is based on the first wave of the Ghana Living Standards Measurement Survey (GLSS) data, collected in 1987–88. The results of the statistical analysis lead to the conclusion that the co-existence of high fertility, rising school costs, and economic reversals is having a negative impact on the education of girls, in terms of drop-out rates and grade attainment. Some of the costs of high fertility are borne by older siblings (particularly girls) rather than by parents, with the result that children from larger families experience greater inequality between themselves and their siblings by sex and birth order. Because fathers have more children on average than mothers, the inequality between their children appears to be even greater than between mothers' children, particularly given the importance of fathers' role in the payment of school fees. The paper concludes that the greatest cost for children in Ghana of sustained high fertility is likely to be the reinforcement of traditional sex roles, largely a product of high fertility in the past.     

Schooling,marriage, and age at first birth in Madagascar

The low school attainment, early marriage, and low age at first birth of females are major policy concerns in less developed countries. This study jointly estimated the determinants of educational attainment, marriage age, and age at first birth among females aged 12–25 in Madagascar, explicitly accounting for the endogeneities that arose from modelling these related outcomes simultaneously. An additional year of schooling results in a delay to marriage of 1.5?years and marrying 1?year later delays age at first birth by 0.5?years. Parents’ education and wealth also have important effects on schooling, marriage, and age at first birth, with a woman's first birth being delayed by 0.75?years if her mother had 4 additional years of schooling. Overall, our results provide rigorous evidence for the critical role of education—both individual women's own and that of their parents—in delaying the marriage and fertility of young women.     

A New Approach to Explaining Fertility Patterns: Preference Theory

Preference theory is a new approach to explaining current and future patterns of employment and fertility among women in modern societies. Although economists usually claim that preferences cannot be measured, methods for identifying women's and men's lifestyle preferences were developed and applied in British (and Spanish) national surveys, confirming the results of previous British and American studies showing three distinct lifestyle preference groups. The results confirm the heterogeneity of women's preferences and suggest that preferences are the primary determinant of fertility and employment decisions. The implications for policies to raise fertility are discussed.     

Earnings,relative income,and family formation

The probability of first marriage for men who graduated from Wisconsin high schools in 1957 was analyzed with respect to their Social Security earnings records, Wisconsin income tax reports for parents, and other variables. The findings provide no support for Easterlin's hypothesis that marriage will occur earlier when young men judge their economic prospects favorably with respect to their parents' income. However, young men's earnings and time spent in schooling to increase them were found to be important influences on marriage timing. Additional schooling had little effect net of the time it absorbed.     

The influence of wives’ and husbands’ fertility preferences on progression to a third birth in Nepal, 1997–2009

As couples across the globe increasingly exercise conscious control over their reproduction, both spouses’ family-size preferences have the opportunity to influence their fertility. Using couple-level measures of rural Nepalese spouses’ family-size preferences and more than a decade of monthly panel data collected subsequently on fertility outcomes, we investigate how both spouses’ preferences influence progression to a third birth in a country where the widely professed ideal family size is two children. Contrary to expectations based on women's relative disadvantage, we find that it is wives’ preferences that drive couples’ progression to a third birth. We find also that the influence of wives’ preferences is not explained by contraceptive use but that this influence is moderated by couple communication about family planning. Wives’ preferences drive progression to a third birth among couples who had discussed how many children to have.     

Malthus to modernity: wealth,status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879

A key challenge to theories of long-run economic growth has been linking the onset of modern growth with the move to modern fertility limitation. A notable puzzle for these theories is that modern growth in England began around 1780, 100 years before there was seemingly any movement to limit fertility. Here we show that the aggregate data on fertility in England before 1880 conceals significant declines in the fertility of the middle and upper classes earlier. These declines coincide with the Industrial Revolution and are of the character predicted by some recent theories of long-run growth.     

Children's residence patterns and educational attainment in rural South Africa, 1997

Using data collected by the Agincourt Health and Population Programme in a rural sub-district of South Africa's Northern Province, this paper describes the residential arrangements of a population in rural South Africa, and analyses the impact of these arrangements on children's educational attainment. Children with co-resident parents generally have higher levels of schooling than those who have one or no co-resident parents. However, having a father who is away from home as a migrant appears to benefit older children whereas, for girls aged 11 to 15, having a mother who is a migrant lowers educational attainment. Children who live in households headed by Mozambican refugees have lower levels of schooling than those who live in non-refugee households. Living in a household headed by a woman is not associated with lower levels of education and, for some age-sex groups, appears to be an advantage.     

Mothers' Education and Survival of Female Children in a Rural Area of Bangladesh

In this paper it is investigated whether the positive effect of mothers' education on child survival is similar for boys and girls in Matlab, Bangladesh. The study is based on follow-up of 7,913 live births that occurred in the study area during the whole of 1982. The five independent variables included in the analysis are: sex of children, mother's education, mother's age at the time of birth, household economic condition, and health programme block. Hazard analysis shows that the positive effect of mother's education on child survival is different for boys and girls. For boys, a change in mother's education from no schooling to 1–5 years resulted in reducing the predicted risk of death by 45 per cent, while for the girls the reduction came to only seven per cent. Similarly, a change in mother's education from no schooling to six or more years of schooling resulted in a reduction of risk of 70 per cent for boys, while for girls it was only 32 per cent.     

Modelling period fertility: Schooling and intervals following a birth in Eastern Africa

We describe a regression-based approach to the modelling of age-, order-, and duration-specific period fertility, using retrospective survey data. The approach produces results that are free of selection biases and can be used to study differential fertility. It is applied to Demographic and Health Survey data for Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe to investigate differential trends in fertility by education. Parity progression fell and the intervals following each birth lengthened between the 1970s and 2000s in all four countries. Fertility fell most among women with secondary education. In contrast to other world regions, postponement of successive births for extended periods accounted for much of the initial drop in fertility in these African countries. However, family size limitation by women with secondary education in Ethiopia and Kenya and longer birth spacing in Zimbabwe also played significant roles. Thus, birth control is being adopted in Eastern Africa in response to diverse changes in fertility preferences.     

On Net Intergenerational Wealth Flows: An Update

Almost 30 years have passed since I introduced the concept of “net intergenerational wealth flows” in a PDR essay, “Toward a restatement of demographic transition theory.” A great deal of research has been published since then, and accordingly an update is needed. That research suggests the following propositions. Immediately before fertility transition, children's farm labor may not quite offset their consumption, although much depends on how far into adulthood they continue to perform at least some work for their parents. In premodern times children may have paid their way because of lower consumption. Research on the pre‐transitional value of children's work produced contradictory results because it examined both hunter‐gatherer societies, in which both adults and children worked comparatively few hours, and farming societies, in which both worked longer hours. In pre‐transitional societies, the insurance value of children was almost unlimited. For most people in most societies, alternative ways of maintaining savings from the earlier to the later stage of the life cycle first became available only when large‐scale investment in children's education was possible. The costs and gains from that investment played a major role in the onset of the fertility transition.     

Is mass schooling essential for fertility decline to begin?

The article explores the significance of mass schooling in fertility decline. Population Council researchers have investigated these links in 17 sub-Saharan African countries. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for these countries, three indicators of the extent of mass schooling for 15-19 year olds were investigated: the percentage ever in school, the percentage completing 4 years, and the percentage completing primary education. Results showed that only six countries in which at least 90% of the 15-19 year olds have ever attended school; at least 75% in 8 of the countries had attended school for 4 years; and at least 60% in Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe completed primary school. For the fertility transition, two indicators were taken into account for the 17 countries: the percent decline in fertility from 1960 or 1965 to the present, and the percent of currently unmarried women practicing contraception. 7 of the 17 countries have had fertility declines of less than 10%; 3 countries had less than 10%. In comparing the fertility data and schooling data, investigators found a strong statistical relationship between the percentage of 15-19 year olds completing 4 years of schooling and the phase of the fertility transition. However, other factors have played a role in the fertility decline in certain countries.     

Fertility decline in Kinshasa

This paper examines key socio-economic changes over the past 40 years in the lives of women in Kinshasa, Zaire, and how those changes relate to observed fertility behaviour. Data from surveys carried out in 1955, 1975, and 1990 are used to highlight the remarkable shift that has taken place in the educational attainment of women: in the 1950s the vast majority of adult women had no formal education, while by 1990 the median woman had been to secondary school. This dramatic shift was accompanied by several related changes, including delays in age at marriage and increased participation in the labour market. Total fertility, which was estimated at 7.5 in the 1950s and had not changed much by 1975, appears to have fallen more recently, by about 1.5 children or more. This decline in fertility appears to be closely linked to the improvements in secondary schooling for women in Kinshasa.