Union patterns and children’s living arrangements in Latin America

This article analyzes how union patterns in Mexico and Colombia affect the lives of children. The proportion of children affected by a disruption by the age of 15 is estimated by using life table methods. The factors that contribute to a child's risk of experiencing a disruption are investigated by using proportional hazard models. Finally, the living arrangements of children by the mother's marital status, the urban status, and the mother's educational attainment are explored. The findings indicate that about one-fifth of Mexican children and one-third of Colombian children spend some time with an unmarried mother by the age of 15. In addition, those who experience a disruption or are born outside of a union spend a considerable length of time in the single-parent state. Most children of an unmarried mother live in an extended-family household, often with a grandparent.     

Ordering urban communities according to their socio-economic characteristics

Defining the needs of a community and ranking communities according to their level of distress presents both conceptual and empirical difficulties. In this study, the needs of 51 communities are defined by five selected socio-economic characteristics. The scores of these communities in each of the characteristics were arranged by Partial Order, allowing for a Multi rather than a Uni-Dimensional Scaling. This Multi-Dimensional Scaling maintains that the scores of a given community may be high in one characteristics and low in another. Arranging these communities by Partial Order Scalogram Analysis (POSA) allows the differentiation between communities according to their Level of Distress (The Joint Direction) and the Type of Distress (The Lateral Direction). This analysis can help in forming a policty for intervention by selecting communities or settlements either by the level or by the type of their distress or by relating to both of these measures.     

Integrating Turkish communities: a German dilemma

The social and economic integration of the Turkish minority into German society reflects a systemic problem to which policy makers have not yet found a response. Marginalized by the larger society and separated by cultural and religious life styles, a significant proportion of the Turkish minority is becoming part of a “parallel society” reinforced by discrimination, restricted educational achievements, and a low socioeconomic status.     

Antizipation und ihre Formalisierung. Zur Simulation sozialer Systeme nach Loet Leydesdorff

The paper in hand ventures to introduce a mathematical formalization of anticipation in social systems as suggested by Loet Leydesdorff on the background of the anticipatory-conception by Daniel Dubois and the Theory of Social Systems by Niklas Luhmann. The paper discusses a difference between Luhmann and Leydesdorff concerning their conceptions of information and hints at possibilities to overcome this difference by considering the medium-form-distinction as introduced by Luhmann.     

Youth emancipation and perceived job insecurity of parents and children

We test whether job insecurity of parents and children affect children’s moving-out decisions. Macroeconomic estimates for 13 European countries over 1983–2004 show that coresidence increases by 1.7 percentage points (PP) following a 10 PP rise in the share of youths perceiving their job to be insecure and declines by 1.1 PP following the same increment in insecurity for older workers. Microeconometric evidence for Italy in the mid-1990s shows that the probability of moving out increases by about half a percentage point for a one-standard-deviation increase in paternal insecurity and by one-third of a percentage point for a one-standard-deviation decrease in children’s insecurity.     

Biogeographical history of northeastern Asiatic soricine shrews (insectivora, mammalia)

A hypothetical biogeographical history of northeastern Asiatic soricine shrews in the late Quaternary was developed by integrating their present distributions, fossil records, a hypothetical phylogeny, and geological investigations. First, a biological area cladogram of the northeastern Asiatic region was constructed by applying the vicariance hypothesis to the phylogeny of thecaecutiens/shinto group, a monophyletic group proposed by Ohdachi et al. (1997). Comparing the biological area cladogram with a geological hypothesis by Ohshima (1990,1991,1992), we hypothesized a geographical history of northeastern Asia. Species were then located on the dendrogram of the geographical history, referring to the present distributions, fossil records, and phylogeny of shrews. According to our hypothesis, higher species diversity of the northern region of northeastern Asia (Hokkaido, Sakhalin, and Eastern Siberia) was achieved by several series of colonizations and habitat expansion. On the other hand, the shrew communities of the southern region (Honshu, Sado, Shikoku, and Kyushu) were created by extinction and isolation followed by speciation.     

Proposal for a Dynamic Composite Indicator: Application in a Comparative Analysis of Trends in the EU Member States Towards the Europe 2020 Strategy

This paper contributes, with a dynamic approach, to the research on the creation of comparable composite indicators by presenting a proposal for an exploratory factor analysis protocol to enable a comparative trend analysis. The originality of the study lies in the three dimensions of information for analysis: observations, variables and units of time. The proposal involves various stages of analysis with the ultimate, albeit not exclusive, aim of obtaining what is known as a Global Dynamic Indicator. The analysis process begins by structuring the data into a three-dimensional global matrix, thereby conditioning, while also, and primarily, enriching the later stages. A combination of multiple factor analysis and a clustering technique is the selected approach for successfully meeting the challenges involved. The appropriateness and versatility of the proposal are validated through the analysis of the trends of the EU member states towards the targets set by the 2020 Strategy. The study period runs from 2009 to 2018. The empirical work enables the visualisation and quantification of trend differences and similarities across member states collectively and individually, and across all the variables and years selected for analysis. The relevant findings will be quantified by means of a synthetic indicator for each unit of time and a global indicator for the period as a whole. Some of the conclusions reached by this paper are consistent with those already published by various authors.

     

Some problems in determining the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate

Abstract The paper attempts to revive professional interest in a problem originally considered by Lee and Isbister and which has assumed added importance recently because of the increasing number of national family planning programmes that are being instituted, which require the determination of the number of acceptors needed in a family planning programme in order to achieve a specified reduction in the birth rate. The publication of subsequent papers on births averted by programmes, notably by Potter and Wolfers, each of whom had made some criticisms of the paper by Lee and Isbister, has tended to obscure the differences in the nature between the problem raised by Lee and Isbister, and that discussedby Potter or Wolfers. The paper tries to bring out these differences and points out one of the limitations of the estimates of births averted obtained by using either Potter's or Wolfers's methods, viz. the inability to determine the time period to which the birth reduction refers, thereby further complicating the issues involved in assessing the social and economic implications of births averted by a family planning programme. The paper also points out some of the unrecognizedtechnical considerations which arise in dealingwith the 'target-setting' problem raised by Lee and Isbister and suggeststhat stochasticmodel studies might offera clue for evolving practical methods for tackling this problem.     

A magical model to predict individual differences in mood change

We tested a mathematical model of psychological well-being (PWB) with data from a paradigm that included a negative mood induction followed by a positive induction. The propositions from the model encompass the hypothesis that the relative mood prior to either induction has implications for the magnitude of subsequent induction effects, such that relative mood is defined by current mood as a ratio of the prevailing mood that is predicted by the model. The findings confirm the hypothesis that the relative mood at baseline predicts mood change in a nonoverlapping time period, even after control for potentially mediating variables.     

Coping with loneliness among the terminally ill

Loneliness is a universal phenomenon, and its pain is intensified by a diagnosis of a terminal illness. The present study is an investigation of the strategies used by patients with Multiple sclerosis (MS), by individuals diagnosed with cancer, and by the general population to cope with loneliness. Three hundred and twenty nine MS patients, 315 cancer patients, and 391 participants from the general population answered a 34-item questionnaire. Results indicated that with the exception of Reflection and acceptance, Distancing and denial, and Increased activity, the three groups cope with loneliness significantly differently.     

Environmentalism among nation-states

This article attempts to offer a better understanding of international environmental cooperation by measuring state environmentalism. We examine whether there is a structural response by nation-states to various international agreements on the environment. Using alpha and theta reliability scaling, we create an environmental scale that measures the propensity of a nation-state to take political action in support of the environment, as indicated by the ratification of key international treaties. Our work suggests that environmentalism is, in fact, a structural characteristic of nation-states that leads them to respond in a patterned way to environmental policies.     

Sex differences in life cycle measures of widowhood

Using formulas which measure life cycle characteristics of widowhood as a function of life table survivorship and age at marriage, we illustrate changes in patterns of widowhood and widowerhood since 1950, as well as differences by race, by age of bride and of groom, and by age differences between spouses. Although the current inequality in the risks of widowhood and widowerhood for the average couple is mostly due to sex differences in mortality, a one year age difference between spouses has about the same impact as does a one year difference in life expectancy. Calculations based on current distributions of age of groom by age of bride indicate that the older the age of groom, the greater the age difference between spouses and the higher the likelihood of a woman outliving her husband: the typical groom who marries in his fifties faces a 4 to 1 chance that he will be outlived by his spouse.     

Masculinity and desire in the works of J. R. Ackerley

Although homosexuality was still identified as a sign of effeminacy in the West at the beginning of the twentieth century, the work of George Chauncey suggests that working-class men in the West were able to maintain a masculine identity by playing the active, or insertive, role in sexual encounters. The experiences of one middle-class English homosexual, J. R. Ackerley (1896-1967), reveals that maintaining one's masculinity was more difficult for men of the middle class who desired same-sex contact. After a period in which his identity vacillated between the poles of male and female, he conceived a masculine homosexual identity by consciously rejecting effeminacy in himself and others, by dressing as a "normal" middle-class male, and, most importantly, by seeking relationships with younger, working-class men.     

Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments

Projections of total population have been evaluated extensively, but few studies have investigated the performance of projections by age. Of those that did, most focused on projections for countries or other large areas. In this article, we evaluate projections by age for Florida and its counties, as produced and published between 1996 and 2010 by the Bureau of Economic and Business Research at the University of Florida. We first compare the precision and bias of projections of total population with the precision and bias of projections by age, at both the state and county levels. This is followed by a more detailed examination of county-level projection errors for individual age groups, first in the aggregate and then disaggregated by sex and population size. The second part of the analysis focuses on a number of adjustments that were implemented in projections published in 2006 and 2009. Intended to improve accuracy, these adjustments involved updates to the base population, fertility rates, and survival rates. We compare the accuracy of projections incorporating these adjustments with the accuracy of projections excluding them. We believe this study offers a unique opportunity to examine a variety of characteristics regarding the forecast accuracy of small-area population projections by age.     

Matching experimentation in a dual record system for births and deaths in Morocco

Summary In an effort to improve the quality and completeness of birth and death reporting in Morocco, a sample of 84,000 persons was established, for whom birth and death data were collected by two methods. Each household was contacted once a month by interviewers in a registration method; independently, each household was interviewed once every six months by a survey team. Interviewing continued from April 1972 to July 1973. Results of these two methods were then compared through matching the vital events recorded by the two sources. First a 'true match status' was established by teams of 'experts', supplemented by field verification of uncertain cases. Of the 15 variables on the vital event reporting forms, eight were studied to establish the optimal tolerance limits for deciding whether any two completed recording forms (one from each method) were recording a single birth (or death) or two different ones. Next, those characteristics were selected which introduced the fewest matching errors; for births, this was the dwelling unit number, the name of the mother, and the name of the baby; for deaths, the dwelling unit number, the name of the person, and the name of the head of household. Aside from its manifest function, the matching operation also improved the fieldwork and helped to clean the data.     

Estimating intercensal age schedules by intracohort interpolation

"This paper describes a procedure for estimating intercensal age schedules of rates of occurrence of demographic events (birth, death, marriage) from tabulations at two points in time of a status of the population (average children ever born, persons surviving, proportion ever married) classified by age." The procedure is called iterative intracohort interpolation. The paper describes a more general version than that originally developed by Ansley J. Coale and provides a probabilistic interpretation of the age-specific rates estimated by the procedure.     

25 Years On: The State and Continuing Development of LGBTQ Studies Programs

ABSTRACT

This article serves as the introduction to “25 Years On: The State and Continuing Development of LGBTQ Studies Programs.” It begins by placing the current issue in a commemorative context: marking the anniversary of a 1993 special issue of the Journal of Homosexuality dedicated to the emergence of “Gay and Lesbian Studies” and edited by Howard L. Minton. The introduction continues by providing an overview of early phases of academic transformations, primarily in the United States, with notes on particular legacies. This is followed by a brief survey of scholarship published since 1993 that pays particular attention to curricular and pedagogical concerns. It concludes by identifying themes articulated by the essays selected for this issue as well as commentary on their individual, yet richly interrelated, contributions.     

‘Valid’ empirical measurement of quality of life?

Results of empirical quality of life studies, undertaken hitherto, are subjectively influenced to a considerable extent by the researchers who try to measure the ‘quality of life’. In substantiation of this allegation it is shown on the basis of empirical data that the results are highly influenced, among others, (1) by the selection of indicators, (2) by the aggregation of indicators to one element, (3) by the weighting or non-weighting of the indicators, (4) by the indicator weigths given by different groups, (5) by employing different measurement techniques. Remarkable progress in empirical measurement could be made by the employment of objective indicators which are weighted by different groups (e.g., citizens, experts, decision makers, etc.). This approach can be called a ‘weighted objective indicator’ approach. In the second half of the article the proposal is made to measure infrastructure disparities both in physical and monetary terms. This permits a comprehensive assessment of the infrastructure's deficits and surplus on the level of indicators, subconcerns, and concerns.     

A comment on Coale's life table construction

In a recent issue of Population Index, Coale (1984) described a method of deriving a life table for an intercensal period separated by T years from 2 census single-year age distributions of a closed population. This note examines the formula used by Coale and points out that although it works well for all practical purposes, the formula with his new growth rate is an approximation, not an identity as is assumed by Coale. The Coale formula involves more steps than the usual method of estmating mortality and yields less accurate results. Coale's formula is explained. In general, in the case under consideration, if a larger cohort is followed by a smaller cohort, the survival probability calculated by the formula exceeds unity, whereas if a smaller cohort is followed by a larger cohort, the calculated survival probability becomes less than unity. The size of the relative cohorts determines the degree of error in the calculated probability. The formula does not give the survival probability of unity as it should if it were an identity. The formula in the continuous time is an identity. Feeney's alternative method presented in Coale's Computational Appendix 3 produces an exact life table without using any formula. Feeney's method is, however, less accurate than the usual method, given the same data, because it omits some information. The Coale procedure losses its usefulness in that it requires extra data manipulation, only to yield less accurate results.     

Further developments in indirect mortality estimation

Summary A variety of indirect estimators of mortality; survival of children by marriage duration of mother, survival of first spouse by marriage duration and by age, maternal orphanhood, and survival of siblings, are investigated by the use of a wide range of model fertility and mortality situations. Survival probabilities are then related by regression analysis to the proportions with a particular characteristic, to yield an equation which can then be used to estimate the survival probability in a population. Maternal orphanhood and survival of first spouse by age have already shown themselves to be useful, and the new developments are only simplifications of the existing methodology. Survival of first spouse by duration of marriage, and survival of siblings are, however, new methods which have yet to be justified by field experience. In conclusion, the features common to all indirect mortality estimation procedures are outlined, and the direction future developments may take in response to gradually improving data quality is suggested.