A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households--with an illustrative numerical application

"This paper develops a multi-dimensional model for projecting households and population. The model is constructed to ensure consistency between the demographic events occurring to males and females as well as to parents and children. The model permits projection of characteristics of households, their members, and population structure, using data that are usually available from conventional sources. Unlike the traditional headship-rate method, our model can closely link the projected households with demographic rates. The model includes both nuclear and three-generation households, so that it can be used for countries where nuclear households are dominant and for countries where nuclear and three-generation households are both important. The illustrative application to China, although brief, provides some policy-relevant information about future trends of Chinese household size, structure, and the age and sex distribution of the population, with a focus on the elderly."     

Family and sociodemographic influences on patterns of leaving home in Postwar Britain

We identify child-level and parent-level characteristics associated with children’s patterns of leaving home. We use a multilevel discrete-time hazards model to examine the impact of family and demographic factors at both levels, and utilize the Alternating Conditional Expectation algorithm optimally to transform the dependent and independent variables. We find that measured variables at both the child and the parent level have important influences, as do period and cohort factors. However, unmeasured parent-level factors have an influence on the departure of children that is broadly similar in magnitude to measured factors.     

A modification for use in destabilized populations of brass's technique for estimating completeness of death registration

The analysis of censuses for pre-industrial Europe has caused doubts about the supposed dominance of stem and joint family organization in earlier times. Using a hypothetical example of a nuclear family organization where extended composition is only found when widowed persons find shelter in the household of one of their children, we show that both the expected value and the variance of the estimated frequency of extended composition are high under demographic circumstances typical of pre-industrial Europe. This makes inferences about family organization based on data concerning family composition hazardous     

Mortality levels and family fertility goals

The relationship between mortality levels and family fertility goals is a fundamental problem in the theory of the demographic transition. This paper deals with the logical problems of estimating family fertility rates from the expected probability of a child surviving to a given age of a parent. The possibility of committing the ecological fallacy makes precise prediction difficult. We critically analyze an existing mathematical model of family fertility decisions. We show that, by incorporating more data (here, on birth order) in a more comprehensive model capable of using those data, then the predictability of fertility rates over time can be significantly improved.     

Risk and Fertility: A Reply to Robinson

Japanese household structure has changed dramatically over the last two decades, especially with regard to multi-generational co-residence. In this paper, we use logit analysis to investigate the extent to which married Japanese men and women aged 30 to 59 live with their parents and, in particular, how socio-economic and demographic characteristics are associated with co-residence. For men, being the eldest child, being in a lower-status occupation, living in a small town or rural area, being in an arranged marriage, and having a parent without a spouse are all positively associated with co-residence. For women, only demographic variables matter – being the eldest child, having a husband who is not the eldest child, and having a parent without a spouse, lead to a higher probability of co-residence with own parents. For those middle-aged Japanese who are not co-residing with their parents, we analyse the frequency of seeing and telephoning their parents and find that the distance between the residences of members of different generations, as well as other socio-economic and demographic factors, affect the frequency of contact. The study is based on data from the 1988 Mainichi Newspapers/Nihon University Japanese National Family Survey.     

The effects of the child support provisions of the Family Support Act of 1988 on child well-being

The provisions for child support reform in the Family Support Act of 1988 are likely to have a large impact upon the well-being of children eligible for child support, a group expected to include half of the children in the country. The reform is expected to increase child support payments and thereby reduce the economic insecurity and poverty of children who live apart from a parent. It is also expected to lead to increased contact between noncustodial parents and their children, which may also enhance well-being. This paper reviews the child support system in the United States, summarizes the empirical research that has been carried out on children from disrupted families, analyzes the impact that the Family Support Act may have on child well-being, and discusses the key variables that should be measured as well as the most promising sources of data to evaluate child support reform.Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the views of the sponsoring institutions.     

Estimating the completeness of death registration

In this paper, U.S. data from the 1981 Child Health Supplement are used to estimate the effect of a child's disability or serious chronic illness on: (1) the risk of the parents' divorcing before the child reaches the age of 11, and (2) the mother's chances of remarriage after divorce. Divorce is significantly more common among the parents of disabled or sickly children than among those of healthy children, and these disruptive effects of a child's frailty are even stronger when children are between six and nine years old than when they are younger. Possibly, divorce only becomes a viable option for some parents once a sickly child has started to spend part of the day away from home, in school. In contrast, a child's health status does not predict the mother's waiting time to remarriage. A range of potentially confounding demographic factors are controlled in the models, and their effects on children's chances of experiencing parental divorce are as expected. For example, having a mother who married young significantly predicts parental divorce.     

Indonesia’s social capacity for population health: the educational gap in active life expectancy

In this paper, we lay the initial groundwork for anticipating Indonesia’s future burden of disease by developing a demographic model of population health. We develop this model within the analytic framework of a Markov-based multistate life table model to calculate an important indicator of the burden of disease, the expected years of active life of elderly Indonesians. The magnitude of the gap points to the potential consequences of improvements in the nation’s educational level for the future burden of disease. The results show that having some education increases life expectancy but it also expands the expected years with a major functional problem. Overall educational attainment levels, however, are very low, indicating that Indonesia’s elderly are at the leading edge of improvements in the nation’s social capacity for health. The life tables suggest that at the early stages of development, longer life is accompanied by an expansion of morbidity.     

The Dying Mother

In a culture where concerted attempts are being made to postpone or circumvent inevitable processes of human life, the poignancy of a mother diagnosed with cancer provides a platform from which to explore broader cultural understandings of mothering. This paper examines four films that contend with the theme of mothering with terminal cancer. Despite being made decades apart and for different audiences, the films share seemingly unchanging representations of mothers. They are portrayed as having a choice between dying as “good” mothers or risking being labeled as unfit mothers. Instead of using cancer as an opportunity to become better selves (as expected of others who are dealing with cancer), dying mothers are expected to find better selves for their children. In the process they must learn the difficult lesson that they are required to both sacrifice all for their children and acknowledge being imperfect as mothers, that is, being replaceable as mothers. Young mothers, in particular, are assumed to be incapable of being good mothers.     

Sex ratio at birth: Values,variance, and some determinants

This paper examines the values, variance and some possible determinants of sex ratios for the first child and for all children in expected and desired families. For adults in Tallahassee, Florida, it was found that a large majority of respondents within sixty demographic categories chose males for their first child. Of those who actually had girls for their first child, a plurality would, nevertheless, prefer a first boy in their desired family. It was hypothesized and demonstrated that sex-role ideologies were a strong predictor of variance in first-child sex preferences. Sex ratios for all children in expected and desired families were 116 and 113, respectively. If people could choose the sex of their future children, these data suggest that several population parameters might be significantly altered; a preliminary model is outlined which might project some of these changes.     

Self-Reported Fears as Indicators of Young Children’s Well-Being in Societal Change: A Cross-Cultural Perspective

Our main interest in this paper is in studying children’s well-being by using children themselves as informants and fear as an indicator of insecurity from cross-cultural and longitudinal perspectives. More specifically our paper documents the changes in the content and prevalence of children’s fears in two neighboring countries, Finland and Estonia, during the last decade. The study was carried out in 1993 and replicated in 2002/2003 in both countries with the random samples of total number of 420 five to six-year-old children (in Estonia 115 in 1993 and 91 in 2002; in Finland 105 and 109, respectively). For both countries the decade in question was a period of social, political and economic transition including post-socialist transformation in Estonia. Especially informationalization and globalization had a profound impact on the everyday life of parents and children. The increase of insecurity among children in both countries was expected. Children’s fears were investigated by means of an individual semi-structured and picture-aided interview. The most important findings are: the prevalence of children’s self-reported fears has generally increased during the ten years, especially among the Estonian children. The most significant increase was observed in both countries in fears of imagination-related things including television-related fears, fears of imagined creatures and of nightmares parallel to children’s increased media-exposure in daily life. Despite the increase of␣general welfare in both countries our results suggest the opposite tendency among young children; decrease of safety and increase of insecurity. The level of children’s insecurity was higher in Estonian than in Finland at both times. It is noteworthy that some fears of young children are ‚universal’ (fear of getting lost, fear of darkness, fear of being alone), while some fears are more context dependent (television-induced fears, fear of strange people). Young children proved to be competent informants of their condition and well able to provide essential and invaluable information about their problems and well-being. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Residential proximity of parents and their adult offspring in the United Kingdom, 2009–10

Using data from a large household survey representative of the UK population, we studied how closely parents and adult children live to each other. We show that residential mobility over the life course tends to increase with the physical distance between the homes of parent and child. There are large differences in intergenerational proximity between the foreign-born and UK-born, and between ethnic groups. The determinants of intergenerational proximity from the parent's viewpoint are not identical to those from the child's viewpoint. Contrary to the findings of some earlier studies, intergenerational proximity, from the child's viewpoint, does not vary with the number of siblings. But from the parent's viewpoint, having more children is unambiguously associated with a higher probability of living close to at least one child. We end with a brief discussion of some possible implications of several long-term demographic trends in the UK for intergenerational proximity.     

Minimal Household Units: A New Approach to the Analysis of Household Formation

In this paper a new method for the analysis of household formation and the composition of households is described. The components, or building blocks, which combine to form households are identified and these have been called ‘minimal household units’. The focus of the analysis is on whether a minimal household unit sets up as a separate household or, if not, with whom it is shared. An economic theory of household formation is outlined, and a probit model is used to guide the estimation of the effects of economic and demographic characteristics of the minimal household unit on the probability of being a separate household, economic factors, such as the unit's income, and other social and demographic characteristics of the unit's members are shown to have a significant influence on the probability of its being a separate household.     

The demography of American Indian families

This paper uses data from the decennial censuses to examine family structure and changes in family structure over time among American Indians. The information about the national Indian population indicates that the trends in family structure among American Indians are parallel in many respects to those in the general US population. That is, the percentage of young American Indian women who have never married has increased over time, the percentage of American Indian women who are divorced has increased over time, and the percentage of American Indian children who reside with a single parent has increased as well. The percentage of American Indian women who have never married and who are divorced and the percentage of American Indian children who live with a single parent are higher than those among the general population. The incidence of children living with single parents is especially high on some reservations which also have high levels of poverty and unemployment. Family patterns, however, vary considerably across reservations in ways that are not easily explained by differences in other demographic characteristics. These variations may be due to cultural and historical differences that are not captured in data collected in the censuses.     

Stability and change in temporal distance between the elderly and their children

Drawing on a developmental model of late-life migration, this paper investigates how older people’s health and social characteristics influence stability and change in their temporal distance from their children. Data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging are used to examine both discrete transitions and continuous change in distance over a four-year period. Decline in older parents’ physical health increased the propensity of parents and children to become temporally closer to each other. Among those parent-child pairs who had become closer, the conjunction of declining health and widowhood increased both the degree of non-coresident proximity and the likelihood of transition to coresidence. The findings portray a geographically resilient family that adjusts to the changing needs of its older members.     

Effects of Childhood Mortality and Morbidity on the Fertility Transition in sub‐Saharan Africa

Child mortality rates have fallen substantially in developing countries since 1960. The expected fertility decline has followed only weakly in sub‐Saharan Africa compared to other recent and historic demographic transitions. Disease and anthropometric data suggest that morbidity remains prevalent in Africa despite child survival improvements. The uniquely high infectious disease burden among children in Africa reduces population health and diminishes the returns to human capital investment, thwarting the quantity–quality tradeoff for children that typically accompanies the mortality transition. Individual‐level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys are used to show that persistent morbidity has weakened the positive relationship between child mortality and total fertility rates throughout the region, slowing Africa's demographic transition.     

Child Well-Being in Same-Sex Parent Families: Review of Research Prepared for American Sociological Association Amicus Brief

Recent legal cases before the Supreme Court of the United States were challenging federal definitions of marriage created by the Defense of Marriage Act and California’s voter approved Proposition 8 which limited marriage to different-sex couples only. Social science literature regarding child well-being was being used within these cases, and the American Sociological Association sought to provide a concise evaluation of the literature through an amicus curiae brief. The authors were tasked in the assistance of this legal brief by reviewing literature regarding the well-being of children raised within same-sex parent families. This article includes our assessment of the literature, focusing on those studies, reviews and books published within the past decade. We conclude that there is a clear consensus in the social science literature indicating that American children living within same-sex parent households fare just, as well as those children residing within different-sex parent households over a wide array of well-being measures: academic performance, cognitive development, social development, psychological health, early sexual activity, and substance abuse. Our assessment of the literature is based on credible and methodologically sound studies that compare well-being outcomes of children residing within same-sex and different-sex parent families. Differences that exist in child well-being are largely due to socioeconomic circumstances and family stability. We discuss challenges and opportunities for new research on the well-being of children in same-sex parent families.     

Mortality level,desired family size,and population increase: Comment

In this paper an attempt is made to elaborate on the behavioral assumptions underlying a simulation model published in a previous volume of this journal (Heer and Smith, 1968). The present paper contains a discussion of the ways in which a fall in the death rate of children will affect the desirability of another birth if the family's objective is to have a son surviving to the father's sixty-fifth birthday. The death rate affects both the expected costs of and benefits from an additional birth. An examination of the effects of a decline in child mortality indicates that the benefits from an additional birth fall and the expected costs rise as a result of the decline. Thus a death rate will eventually be reached where costs exceed benefits, and parents will not desire an additional pregnancy.     

Beyond the Nuclear Family: Trends in Children Living in Shared Households

Using data from the 1996–2008 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation and the 2009–2016 American Community Survey, we examine trends in U.S. children living in shared households (living with adults beyond their nuclear (parent/parent’s partner/sibling) family). We find that although the share of children who lived in a shared household increased over this period, the rise was nearly entirely driven by an increase in three-generation/multigenerational households (coresident grandparent(s), parent(s), and child). In 1996, 5.7 % of children lived in a three-generation household; by 2016, 9.8 % did likewise—more than a 4 percentage point increase. More economically advantaged groups (older, more educated mothers, married households) experienced the largest percentage increase in three-generation coresidence, although correlates of coresidence remained largely stable. Decomposition analyses suggest that the rise in Social Security receipt and changes in parental relationship status (less marriage, more single parenthood) most strongly explained the increase in three-generation households. Given the dramatic rise in three-generation households, more research is needed to understand the consequences of these living arrangements for children, their parents, and their grandparents.     

Have We Put an End to Social Promotion? Changes in School Progress among Children Aged 6 to 17 from 1972 to 2005

We examine trends over time in the proportion of children below the modal grade for their age (BMG), a proxy for grade retention, and in the effects of its demographic and socioeconomic correlates. We estimate a logistic regression model with partial constraints predicting BMG using the annual October school enrollment supplements of the Current Population Survey. This model identifies systematic variation in the effects of social background across age and time from 1972 to 2005. While the effects of socioeconomic background variables on progress through school have become increasingly powerful as children grow older, that typical pattern has been attenuated across the past three decades by a steady secular decline in the influence of those variables across all ages. A great deal of concern has been expressed about rising levels of economic and social inequality in the United States since the middle 1970s, and about the potential intergenerational effects of such inequality. However, there has been an opposite trend in the effects of social origins on being BMG. A trend is not a law, and there is reason to be concerned about the recent deceleration of the secular decline in effects of social background on being BMG.