The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

Individual Welfare in the Soviet Union

World Values Survey data, collectedJune-October 1990, are used to exploredeterminants of individual welfare in variousregions of the Soviet Union. Emphasis isplaced on the role of household income andperceived health status in determining thehappiness of an individual. Comparisons aremade across five Soviet regions and between theSoviet Union, the U.S., and West Germany. Thedata indicate similar patterns existedregarding welfare determinants though Sovietcitizens were relatively unhappy. There arealso differences between the two marketeconomies and the Soviet Union regarding theextent to which income influenced health andhappiness.     

第二次世界大战对苏联人口状况的影响

第二次世界大战期间为了赢得战争胜利,苏联付出了惨重的人口代价。战争对苏联人口状况产生了深刻的影响,不仅加重了战前已存在的人口危机程度,而且对居民的身体健康状况、结婚率和家庭规模造成了更深程度的破坏。战后流行病大规模爆发,出生率下降、死亡率上升,性别比例、年龄结构严重失衡,人口数量大幅减少,并持续数十年,为20世纪90年代初俄罗斯爆发的人口危机埋下了隐患。     

The Centenarian Question: Old-Age Mortality in the Soviet Union, 1897 to 1970

There is a long history of claims of extraordinary longevity among the populations of the Soviet Union, and the Russian Empire before it, especially in the Caucasus region. Exceptionally high proportions of centenarians have been reported in the censuses, and much publicity has accompanied the announcements of ‘super-centenarians’ living well beyond 150 years. The major question regarding this phenomenon of supposed extraordinary longevity is whether the claims are, indeed, true or, rather, the result of age exaggeration. This paper examines the available Russian and Soviet census and mortality data from 1897 to 1970 in order to assess Soviet claims of extraordinary numbers of centenarians. A detailed analysis of age overstatement in the census data and death registration statistics shows that the long history of longevity claims goes hand in hand with a long history of age overstatement. The extraordinary longevity observed in the Soviet Union is in all likelihood the result of that age overstatement.     

Fertility Policy and Employment: Implications from the Former Soviet Union

Using individual-level survey data that were collected in Russia in 1993, we analyze the fertility-employment relationship for a sample of urban women who bore children during the Soviet era. Although some Russian policy makers advocate policies that reduce female employment to stimulate fertility, we find little empirical support to ensure success of these policies. Specifically, we find no connection between employment and fertility for our sample of Russian females, perhaps because of their historic, mandated commitment to the labor market. Instead, we find that demographics and attitudes influence fertility decision making. These results, in combination with the findings that our sample of Russian women hold more traditional attitudes toward family and egalitarian attitudes toward work than similar American women, suggest that policies to stimulate fertility by reducing employment may not be effective for women raised during the Soviet era unless a dramatic shift in attitudes away from a strong work commitment also occurs.     

The Seeming Paradox of Increasing Mortality in a Highly Industrialized Nation: The Example of the Soviet Union

A discussion of the surprising phenomenon of declining life expectancy in a highly developed country such as the Soviet Union during the 1970s shows that this result was probably due only in a small part to ‘true’ causal changes in the conditions of living. At least equally important is the weaknesses of the measure of life expectancy by itself. The logical difference between period and cohort measurement is one part of the explanation. Another important factor is the adverse selection of risks by war, which makes international and intertemporal comparisons less valuable. Factors like population redistribution or changes in the registration also contribute to the explanation. Thus; life expectancy (in particular period life expectancy) should not, without closer consideration, be accepted as a reliable indicator of human welfare under such circumstances.     

Birth control and regional differentials in the Soviet Union

Abstract Following the territorial division pointed out by Urlanis into those parts of the Soviet Union where birth control is practised and where it is not as widespread, it is possible to ascertain the importance of different factors bearing on fertility within each region. This study was based on data obtained from the 1959 USSR Census of Population including information on social and demographic characteristics of the urban and rural populations for over 150 political-administrative areas. In Central Asia, Azerbaidjan and Armenia, outside the region of birth control, the level of fertility depends mainly on the proportion of women who are married and also on their social position measured by the discrepancy in the educational status of men and women. In contrast, the birth control region of a relatively low level of fertility in urban areas, for example, displays the characteristic of women's educational achievement most strongly associated with the child-woman ratio. Except for the rural areas in this region, the present study fails to support the popular hypothesis that economic dependency of women is directly related to fertility.     

Trends in fertility level in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics during the years of Soviet rule

The birth rates of the USSR within its present boundaries are reconstructed for the period 1918-1940 on the basis of incomplete data and taking into consideration several changes in frontiers. Estimates for the years 1941-1945 are derived from data on school attendance during the 1949-1954 period, as well as from data provided by the censuses of 1959 and 1970 concerning cohort survival. Deriving an "effective fertility rate," which adjusts for the mortality wastage of young children, discussion focus is on fertility trends until 1976 and the changes in age patterns of reproduction at the national level and in the various republics. During the 1918-1940 period, the birth rate in the USSR never fell below 30/1000 and never exceeded 45/1000. There was a significant drop in the birth rate in the 1931-1936 period, and this is attributable to the problems of the period of collectivization and to the large-scale processes of migration involved in the country's industrialization. After the late 1940s, the overall birth rate in the USSR stabilized at a level of 25-27/1000, but from 1960 onwards, there was a steady decline in the rate. The level reached its lowest in 1969 and then rose somewhat. This increase reflects the transient influence of changes in the age-marriage structure of the population and in the "timetable" of births. A comparison of the present fertility level with the level in the 1920s indicates that the birth rate has declined by a factor of approximately 2.5, but in evaluating this decline the sharp decline in mortality, particularly infant mortality, must also be considered. The child mortality level in prerevolutionary Russia was very high. The overall mortality rate for the 20 provinces of European Russia in 1920-1922 was 33.2/1000, namely, 1/4 higher than it was before the Revolution. In subsequent years infant mortality continued at a high level and was 18.2% in 1940. In the last 25 years mortality in children under age 5 has markedly declined. In 1976 the overall birth rate was 18.5/1000 and the "effective" birth rate was 18.0/1000. The practice of birth control in families is spreading in various ways. In some cases the proportion of married couples using family planning is increasing, while in other cases couples already using birth control are beginning to use it after the birth of a child lower in birth order. In most areas of the country birth control is being practiced predominantly in such a way as to keep families down to 1 or 2 children. For the whole of the USSR in 1973-1974, the gross reproduction rate was 1.178, while the net rate was 1.118. Although there is ample population replacement in the country as a whole, in a number of republics even mere replacement is threatened.     

基于户籍制度视角的农村劳动力返流现象分析

在城市化快速发展过程中,农村劳动力返流现象受到社会各界的关注。基于当前劳动力返流的现状,从户籍制度的视角分析我国劳动力返流的演进历程,建立农村劳动力返流的理论分析框架,并且解析户籍制度政策效应对农村劳动力返流的影响,最后从减少返流与安置两个角度提出应对我国农村劳动力返流的对策建议。     

The centenarian question and old-age mortality in the Soviet Union, 1959–1970

Are claims of extraordinarily low mortality levels in the USSR justifiable? Applying a recently developed methodology appropriate for nonstable populations to 1959 and 1970 census data from the Soviet Union, we find that mortality is generally understated for the country as a whole and for various regions and republics. This is particularly so for the republics composing the Central Asian region and the Caucasus. Age overstatement appears to be extremely pronounced in the oldest segments of the population. Using the new methodology, we can derive the age distribution that is uniquely implied by a given life table and a set of age-specific rates of growth obtained from two censuses. When we use the official Soviet life tables in this procedure, we find that the reported number of centenarians is at least 28.9 percent overstated for males and 7.5 percent for females. If one were to posit that Soviet mortality during 1959 to 1970 was, in fact, no better than the Swedish mortality experience during roughly the same time period, then the true number of centenarians could be no more than 2 percent of that reported.     

Causes of fertility decline in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union

Abstract This is the first part of a wider study which attempts to throw iight on the demographic, economic and social factors that have led to dramatic declines in fertility levels in most socialist countries of Eastern Europe during the last fifteen years or so. The present part is concerned with the purely demographic influences, that is mainly with the impact of changes in the age and sex structure of the populations under study, and in nuptiality. The statistical evidence adduced indicates that the observed downward trends in the annual number of births and in crude birth rates are a reflection of genuine changes in attitudes towards family size.     

从人口结构变化看前苏联的现代化

透过人口结构的变化来观察和鉴别国家的现代化阶段或经济发展的程度,是文化学研究中最基本的方法之一。前苏联人口结构的变化证明,它的现代化要比西方国家落后一个阶段。由此,不仅可以证明前苏联外表强大内部虚弱的特征,也可以从一个侧面了解为什么一个世界性超级大国,转瞬之间便土崩瓦解的内部原因。     

Causes of fertility decline in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union II

Abstract The first part of this study (which appeared in the preceding issue of Population Studies) assessed the extent of the decline in fertility in the countries of the area during the last 10-15 years, and analyzed the purely demographic aspects ofthis phenomenon. Part II examines the socio-economic differentials in fertility, with regard to such variables as urban-rural residence, socio-occupational and employment status of women, educational attainment, income and housing conditions, and the consequent impact of structural changes in these characteristics of the population on observed fertility trends. The broad conclusion is that the fertility differentials usually found in western societies are also relevant to the socialist countries of eastern Europe, and that the dramatic falls in fertility in the 1950's and the 1960's have largely been the outcome ofthe deep and rapid structural changes, particularly those associated with urbanization, educational attainment and the incidence of female employment. The last part of the study is concerned with the impact on post-war fertility trends of social legislation and of general economic policies, particularly in the fields of employment and income. An appraisal of the extent of family planning is followed by a discussion of the recent pro-natalist measures introduced in most countries of the area and of their effectiveness.     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

Abstract In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians. In essence, the life table function e(0) was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960. Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

流动人口变动对广东出生人口数量影响研究

大量研究证实流动人口会降低全国各城市生育率水平,但是两者的数量关系仍然不是十分清楚。本文以广东为例,利用1990—2005年广东流动人口和出生人口数据,对流动人口变动与广东出生人口数量关系进行了实证研究。     

Expectancy of life at birth in 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union: 1958-60

In the 36 nationalities of the Soviet Union the estimated expectancy of life at birth ranged from 50·0 years for Chechens to 71·1 years for Latvians with a median of about 67·5 years for Russians.

In essence, the life table function e₀ was generated from the child-woman ratios with the use of intricate equations based on empirical data obtained from official Soviet publications. A modified version of Bourgeois-Pichat's model was used to estimate life expectancies at birth among the 36 nationalities on the basis of their crude death rates and the percentage of population aged 65 years and over. The 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population provided information pertaining to the older age groups. The crude death rates were estimated separately with the aid of second-degree polynomials fitted to the crude demographic measures for 109 administrative areas of the Soviet Union for 1960.

Information about recent improvements in public health, as well as conjectural evaluations of economic advancement in recent years were examined and related to the past and present level of mortality among the Russian people and the remaining population of minorities.     

Mobility where mobility is illegal: internal migration and city growth in the Soviet Union

This paper examines an important anomaly in the internal migration history of the former Soviet Union (FSU). While many cities were closed in the sense of explicitly limiting growth of city population from migration, it was difficult to assess the effectiveness of these controls. We analyze a sample of 308 Soviet cities to isolate the impact of closure regulations controlling for city size. We find that while there are pervasive patterns of city growth, the rate increasing through the 1960s and declining thereafter, there are also pervasive differences between controlled and uncontrolled cities, the later growing significantly faster in almost all cases, controlling for city size. Received: 17 July 1997/Accepted: 16 March 1998