On some theoretic issues about planned control of population]

There are basic differences between Marxian and Malthusian population thought: 1) For Marx, population is a social phenomenon--human reproduction belongs to social production and population laws are social laws influenced by the means of production. Marx recognized that human reproduction had both a natural and a social relationship, but Malthus population theory only acknowledges the natural relationship of human reproduction. Malthus believed that if population grows without interference, it will double every 25 years, or geometrically. It is evident Malthus substituted biological possibilities for the objective inevitability of population evolution, and natural population laws for social population laws. 2) Marx believed that social production is the unification of material production and human reproduction. Material production is controlled and necessitates control of human reproduction. For Malthus, the growth of the means of subsistence never catches up with the growth of the population, but Marx said that even though land is limited, the development of production forces is limitless. Marxist theory postulates that man is basically a producer, but that population must be planned because not everyone is a producer (e.g., children and the unskilled). 3) Malthus believed that in capitalistic countries unemployment, famine, and poverty stem from too many births by the laboring class, i.e., population determines the economy. The only solution to population problems is to have fewer children. For Marx, economics determines population problems.     

On the relationship between population and means of subsistence]

Population is the basis of all social activites and social production. Population growth and development must have a definite means of subsistence to meet its cultural and material needs. The larger the population of a country, the greater is its demand for consumer goods and, likewise, the yield of its means of subsistence should be greater. Population brings about the unification of production and consumption. Furthermore, the ratio of population to the means of subsistence must be maintained at an appropriate level. Population growth must be slower then the growth of the means of subsistence in order to ensure continuous economic expansion and population increase. However, there are some people, notably Malthus, who believe that the balance between population growth and the means of subsistence should be equal. It is crucial to note differences between Marxist and Malthusian points of view. The basic outlook on the nature of the relationship between population and the means of subsistence is different. For Malthusians, it is a matter of the number of people and the quantity of the means of subsistence. For Marxists, the relationship is a historically determined social relationship. For Malthusians, population development is the primary force behind social development, i.e., the imbalance between population and the means of subsistence stems from social ills. Marxists differ from this in believing that population cannot be divorced from material production. Malthusians believe that population surplus derives from a population increase that is greater than an increase in the means of subsistence. Marxists believe a population surplus is also an historically determined social relationship. The Malthusian outlook for the future of population and the means of subsistence is pessimistic, whereas the Marxian view embodies the optimism of revolution.     

A Marxian-Malthusian view of poverty and development

Abstract The names of Marx and Malthus are often linked in disjunction but never in conjunction. Nevertheless, the thesis argued in this paper is that the two historically dominant theories of poverty, the Marxian and the Malthusian, are not inconsistent, but complementary; that a union of the two yields a basic fourfold typology of social classes by differential ownership of property and differential fertility; that this typology can also be viewed as a way of disaggregating the meaningless average of 'GNP per head' in a way which gives social content (i.e. a distributional dimension) to the concept; that the typology provides more satisfactory definitions of 'development' and 'overpopulation'; and that these four categories are improved, or usefully supplemented, by replacing the flowof income by the stock of wealth in each case. Also the universality of the typology is discussed along with some preliminary empirical considerations.     

The Marxist outlook on population]

Marxist population theory and world population are discussed. From his study of capitalist population theory Marx concluded, "In capitalist reproduction, poverty produces population," thus rejecting Malthusian population determinism theory and developing economic determinism. According to UN statistics, world population has stabilized since the middle of this century after having doubled every hundred years for the last 300; population in the developed countries showed a positive decrease and average net population growth of the developing countries also decreased. The premise of this paper is that population grows according to social economy development. During the last several hundred years, world wealth increased much faster than population; in the last 200 years alone, the population has increased fivefold, but wealth fortyfold. In addition, world population analysis reveals an inverse relationship between wealth and population in the developed and developing countries: the poorer the country, the greater the population. From this perspective, the study of population must begin with surplus labor. Accumulation of surplus production is the foundation of continuous social development and the basis for population growth. The major difference in methods between capitalist countries and China is that the capitalist-planned fertility affects the individual family while Chinese-planned fertility has the whole nation in mind. Human fertility is determined by the economic system. Private ownership determines the private nature of fertility and public ownership determines the public nature of fertility. Thus population development is determined by the accumulation of social wealth.     

The demography of disadvantage

This paper discusses the contribution that demographers can make to the study of disadvantage. Demographers from Malthus onwards have been interested in analysing disadvantage through the lens of demographic variables, notably fertility, mortality and population growth, and their effect on poverty and welfare, both at an aggregate level and in terms of intra-household differences in well-being. The methodology of demography, including the concern with getting denominators right, cohort analysis and standardization procedures, can contribute to the analysis of disadvantage in many different ways. As examples, this paper highlights two issues: that of inequality of access to quality education, and the social and economic disadvantage faced by Indigenous Australians. The goal of understanding the causes of disadvantage with a view to reducing it may be best served through multidisciplinary efforts, in which demographers should play a role.     

Malthus on Godwin’s of population

A number of the issues raised by Godwin in his Enquiry Concerning Political Justice recur in subdued form in Of Population. These are issues that Malthus himself considered only to interpret them differently. Most outstanding of the points of difference between the two were: (1) the augmentability of the food supply, which Malthus put far below Godwin’s estimate; (2) the rate of growth of population which Godwin believed to be negligible and Malthus to be potentially great; (3) man’s disposition to control his numbers when necessary, regarding which Godwin was much more optimistic than Malthus; (4) the interpretation each put upon the constraining role of institutions. The two men had more in common than is usually assumed.     

Non-poor Components of Population Growth and Immigration in the U.S., 1990–2010

Traditional measures of poverty are informative in indicating the degree of economic deprivation in a population at a cross-sectional point in time, but they do not consider growth in the size of the non-poverty population. We develop a measure of non-poverty population growth in order to explore whether it constitutes a useful indicator of an important demographic dynamic. We illustrate our approach with an analysis of the U.S. states using Census and American Community Survey data from 1990, 2000, and 2010. The results indicate that the extent to which the non-poor population increased across states is uncorrelated with the initial poverty rate as conventionally measured. Broken down by nativity, the findings further show that some states with official poverty rates above the national average (e.g., Arizona, Georgia, and Texas) nonetheless had some of the highest rates of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants. By contrast, other states with official poverty rates below the national average (e.g., Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Vermont) often had low rates of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants. These findings suggest that low initial poverty rates do not necessarily contribute substantially to the alleviation of global poverty through the immigration of less skilled persons from less developed nations. However, the rate of non-poor population growth among less skilled immigrants also appears to be uncorrelated with state variation in minimum wages even after taking into account population density and median home value.     

The Trade-off Between Poverty Reduction and Carbon Emissions,and the Role of Economic Growth and Inequality: An Empirical Cross-Country Analysis Using a Novel Indicator

Is it possible for countries to eradicate poverty while also meeting environmental goals? Despite the passage of international agreements calling for these issues to be addressed simultaneously, little is known about the direct relationship between them. This study addresses this gap by proposing a new and composite indicator that integrates measures for both poverty and environmental outcomes (carbon emissions) into a single variable, the carbon intensity of poverty reduction (CIPR). This variable defines the trade-off between the proportional changes of emissions per capita and of the share of the population above the poverty line. In parallel an analytic framework is developed to formulate propositions concerning the possible effects of growth and inequality on the CIPR. The propositions are tested empirically using data from 135 countries across a 30-year time period (1981–2012). The findings confirm that the carbon intensity of poverty reduction is heterogeneous across countries. This heterogeneity is partly explained by economic growth, which is found to have a negative effect on the CIPR up to a certain income level, defined here as a “turning point”. Above that turning point, economic growth increases the CIPR. By contrast, inequality reduction is shown to have a significant negative effect on the CIPR. This study contributes to the literature on sustainable development by analytically and quantitatively linking its three dimensions (social, economic and environmental) and by employing a composite indicator that directly measures the trade-off between poverty reduction and emission levels across countries.

     

区域研究中的常用人口预测模型

人口是一国和地区发展的重要因素。准确的人口预测是制定国民经济计划、区域发展规划的基础。文章以甘肃省为例,介绍了线性回归模型、马尔萨斯模型、Logistic模型和GM（1,1）模型在人口预测中的应用,包括模型的建立、参数的求解以及精度检验。并分别用这几种模型对甘肃省2006—2020年的总人口进行预测。结果表明几种模型的拟合精度都比较高,预测值比较接近。取几种模型的预测平均值作为甘肃省总人口规模的预测结果。几种模型的平均预测结果为：2010年甘肃省总人口将达到2745．84万人,2015年将达到2840．91万人。2020年将达到2934．23万人．     

不同预测模型下西藏自治区人口发展状况及对策研究

针对西藏自治区人口数据的有限性、数据序列的不平滑性等特点,分别采用一元回归、马尔萨斯模型、lo-gistic模型、GM(1,1)模型等4种方法,利用西藏自治区1980—2009年统计年鉴数据进行人口预测,综合考虑各种方案预测值,确定西藏自治区2010-2030年的人口数,在此基础上探讨基于人口增长的西藏经济发展模式与对策。结果表明,几种预测模型中平均相对误差率最小的是一元线性预测模型Ⅲ,仅0.2611%,马尔萨斯预测模型Ⅲ的平均相对误差率最大,也只有2.0767%;从预测结果看,Logistic模型的预测结果最为保守,仅为339.61万人,马尔萨斯模型预测最为乐观,高达380.10万人,未来相关研究中,可应用Logistic模型预测值作为下限,马尔萨斯模型预测值为上限;为综合应用四种模型的优势,研究中综合平均四个不同模型的预测结果,则西藏2010年人口将达到294.07万人,2015年达到311.34万人,2020年328.81万人,2025年346.54万人,2030年364.57万人,未来20年总人口增长趋势逐渐加快,区域发展中有一定人口压力。     

Malthus and the Philippines

Jose D. Drilon, Jr., president of Food Terminal, Inc., and a former undersecretary of the then Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources in the Philippines, attributes the widening gap between food supply and demand in developing countries to the high rate of population growth and to the inability of poor countries to produce more food. This situation, in which many countries are facing hunger, was predicted by Thomas Robert Malthus as early as the 16th century. The primary concern of Malthus was the problem of making the food supply keep pace with a constantly growing population. The question arises as to how reliable is Malthusian theory. According to Drilon, Malthus was correct in predicting that population would expand at a rate not previously imagined but that the other aspects of Malthusian theory might not hold true due to the intervention of human beings. For example, it is hoped that the imbalance between population growth and food production can be minimized in the future. In the Philippines there is good reason to be concerned about the validity of Malthusian theory. Although the country's growth rate has been reduced from 3.01% in 1970 to 2.6%, it is still quite high. However, the Philippines has actually been producing sufficient food to feed its population. To make the Philippines self-sufficient in rice, the government initiated the Masagana 99 program in May 1973. Technical and material resources from the public and private sectors were provided to aid rice producers. A nationwide information campaign was also launched to familiarize the farmers with the new methods of rice culture. Masagana 99 has been costly but effective. Since the launching of the program, rice production in the Philippines has been increasing at 7% a year. The government is now using the Masagana 99 formula to increase the production of other crops.     

Integrating BP and MGWR-SL Model to Estimate Village-Level Poor Population: An Experimental Study from Qianjiang,China

Spatially-explicit, fine-scale mapping of poor population distribution at a village level is a necessary prerequisite for developing precise anti-poverty strategies in rural China. To address the data missing of poor population at a village scale, we proposed a modeling methodology from the perspective of spatial poverty, integrating BP and MGWR-SL (Mixed Geographically Weighted Regression model with Spatially Lagged dependent variable) that correspond to population estimation and poverty incidence estimation, respectively, to explore a more accurate and detailed village-level poor population distribution. Furthermore, we justified the accuracy, reliability, and scale effects of the model by using GIS spatial analysis and cross-validation. From the case test, we found that, the proposed model could characterize poor population distribution more accurately than other existing methods, resulting in that the errors of both population spatialization and poverty incidence for each village are less than 5% at a 500 * 500 m grid scale. It can also be inferred that the spatialization of socioeconomic data at a fine scale should take into full account of spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation for both dependent and independent variables, so as to improve the modeling accuracy. This study may provide a perspective for better understanding the detailed and accurate poverty status of data–scarce village in poverty-stricken rural areas, and serves as a scientific reference regarding decision-making in both promoting “entire-village advancement” anti-poverty harmonious development and constructing the new countryside of China.     

Time and Money: A New Look at Poverty and the Barriers to Physical Activity in Canada

The relationship between time, money, and regular participation in physical activities, especially at the intensities and durations required to improve one’s health, is an important public health and social policy issue. The objective of this research is to develop a better understanding of the extent to which income poverty and time poverty act as barriers to regular participation in moderate or higher intensity physical activities. This study uses Canadian time use data collected in 2005 in order to measure income poverty, time poverty, and active living. Objective measures of physical activity engagement (participation rates, daily occurrences, and daily time budgets) are used to explore differences between the rich and poor categories of both income and time wealth. The income and time wealth categories are corroborated using subjective assessments of stress and perceived barriers to regular participation in sports. The results illustrate the multidimensional nature of poverty, but from a public health and social policy perspective, time poverty may be more important than income poverty as a barrier to regular physical activity engagement.     

Ethno-Linguistic Affiliation and Income Poverty in Native Households with Children: Finland 1987–2011

The child poverty rate has increased noticeably in Finland since the mid-1990s, and there are numerous studies in this area. However, little is known about child poverty in the two native and equal population groups, Finnish speakers and Swedish speakers. Using detailed register-based data that cover the period 1987–2011, we analyze how child poverty depends on parental ethno-linguistic affiliation, and whether there is variation in income poverty across these households over time. The poverty measure is relative and based on equalized taxable household income of households with children. Odds of poverty are estimated with logistic regression models using generalized estimating equations to account for repeated observations at the household level. The analyses are restricted to areas with both Swedish- and Finnish-speaking settlement. Single-parent and two-parent households are analyzed separately. Poverty rates increased in all major types of households during the study period, but variation by ethno-linguistic affiliation was fairly modest. Swedish-speaking single-parent and two-parent households experienced a smaller increase in the poverty rate than Finnish-speaking ones, while patterns observed for exogamous households were less clear. The contribution of control variables on the ethno-linguistic poverty differences was modest. Considering that the ethno-linguistic groups studied are indigenous and equal, the small differences in poverty rates between Finnish speakers and Swedish speakers are evidence of a democratic and well-functioning welfare state, although the increasing overall poverty rates over time require future scrutiny by both policy makers and researchers.

     

More Inclusive States,Less Poverty Among Immigrants? An Examination of Poverty,Citizenship Stratification,and State Immigrant Policies

Over the last 20 years, policymaking related to immigrant populations has increasingly been conducted at the state-level. State immigrant polices may influence immigrant poverty by determining immigrants’ level of access to social, economic, political, and health resources and by shaping the social environment. Further, these immigrant policies may shape the stratification between citizens and noncitizens, potentially contributing to distinct patterns of disparities in poverty by both citizenship and race/ethnicity. To assess the relationship between immigrant policy and socioeconomic stratification of immigrants across citizenship status and race/ethnicity in the U.S., we combined data from the 2014 American Community Survey and a measure of level of inclusion of state immigrant policies. We estimated fixed-effects logistic regressions to test the associations between poverty and the interaction of level of inclusiveness, citizenship, and race/ethnicity, controlling for state- and individual-level characteristics. Results showed that there are significant disparities in poverty by citizenship status and race/ethnicity. Asian/Pacific Islander (API) noncitizens experienced lower levels of poverty in states with higher levels of inclusion. Both Latino and API citizens experienced lower levels of poverty in states with higher versus lower levels of inclusion. Among Latinos, the gap in poverty rates between noncitizens and citizens is larger in more inclusive than less inclusive ones, suggesting that the potential positive impact of more inclusive environments does not necessarily translate to the most vulnerable Latino group. The level of inclusion was not associated with differences among Whites and Blacks. Findings suggest that states with more inclusive immigrant policies may foster environments that advance the economic well-being of API noncitizens, as well as API and Latino citizens.     

Non-Economic Quality of Life and Population Density in South Africa

The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life. Popular opinion has generally been that population density can be seen as beneficial for economic growth, as it allows for greater productivity, greater incomes and can be translated into higher levels of quality of life. Recently though, growing evidence tends to suggest the exact opposite in that increases in productivity and incomes are not translated into better quality of life. As economic or income variables have always played a significant role in this research, questions regarding the relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life has largely remained unanswered. In this light, the paper utilises a panel data set on the eight metropolitan cities in South Africa for the period 1996–2014 to determine the relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life in the South African context. In the analyses we make use of panel estimation techniques which allows us to compare changes in this relationship over time as well as adding a spatial dimension to the results. This paper contributes to the literature by firstly studying the aforementioned relationship over time and secondly conducting the analyses at a sub-national level in a developing country. Our results show that there is a significant and negative relationship between population density and non-economic quality of life. Based on our findings policy measures to encourage urbanisation should not be supported if the ultimate outcome is to increase non-economic quality of life.     

Welfare states and inequality: Institutional designs and distributive outcome

Comparative studies on inequality have suffered from severe methodological problems, which mean that issues related to the causes of cross-national variation in inequality remain unresolved. In comparative welfare state research, the preoccupation with expenditure data has also meant that the welfare state itself has remained a black box. By examining new comparative data on social policy institutions and income inequality among different population groups, this study provides a more precise empirical basis for evaluating different, and divergent, theories on the welfare state and equality. Three cases will be used as illustrations: family policy and child poverty, unemployment benefits and poverty among working aged, and old-age pensions and poverty among the elderly. The results suggest that the key for understanding the effect of the welfare state lies in the institutional design—in the level and distribution of social rights. The importance of the welfare state for social stratification deserves to be given more attention by sociological research in the future.     

Child Poverty Among Hong Kong Ethnic Minorities

This paper analyzes the data from the Population Census of 2011 to identify the characteristics of poor ethnic minority groups in Hong Kong and the factors that are associated with child poverty among these ethnic minorities. The results show that the child poverty level varies between different ethnic groups and that ethnic minorities from developing nations are likely to have a higher poverty level. In particular, Pakistani children have the highest poverty rate among all ethnic groups. The results also show that Pakistani, Nepalese, and Mixed (Chinese and Asian) nationalities have a higher child poverty rate than that of Chinese individuals who constitute the majority of the Hong Kong population. The main reason for this is that, unlike their Chinese counterparts, some of these ethnic minority households have not benefited from their own human capital or their length of exposure in the local society in Hong Kong. And even if they have benefited, the positive impact of these factors on ethnic minority households was much weaker compared to that of Chinese households. These results suggest that ethnic minorities need to be categorized as a separate group in order to assess their specific needs, and assimilation policies, especially support on Chinese language learning, need to be an integral part of the government’s poverty reduction strategy to reduce child poverty among ethnic minorities.     

Social Health Indicators and Economic Growth: Evidence from East Asia and Pacific,Middle East and North Africa,South Asia,and Sub-Saharan Africa

The objective of this study is to empirically investigate a two-way statistical relationship between the social health indicators and economic growth in the context of four major regions of the world i.e., East Asia and Pacific, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. To recognize the relationship between the two variables, a time series, co-integration and Granger causality tests have been employed. Aggregate secondary data pertaining to these four regions from 1975 to 2011 on economic growth and social health indicators i.e., infant mortality, child abuse, child poverty, unemployment, weekly wages, health insurance coverage, teenage suicide, teenage drug abuse, high school dropouts, poverty, out-of-pocket health costs, homicides, alcohol related traffic fatalities, food insecurity, income inequality, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, basic health units and rural health centers has been used for analysis. This study evaluates four alternative but equally plausible hypotheses, each with different policy implications. These are: (1) social health indicators Granger cause economic growth, (2) economic growth Granger cause social health indicators (the conventional view), (3) There is a bi-directional causality between the two variables and (4) Both variables are causality independent (although highly correlated). The empirical results only moderately support the conventional view that economic growth has significant long run casual effect on social health indicators in East Asia and Pacific, MENA, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The present study find evident of unidirectional causality running towards economic growth to social health indicators, although, there are some bidirectional causality also exists between the variables. The percentage of unidirectional causality between economic growth and social health indicators is larger than bidirectional or neutrality hypothesis.     

The malthusian theory in pre-civil War America

Abstract Malthusian pessimism was singled out as the most vulnerable expression of the dominant, classical school of economics. Boston idealists, who saw the Malthusian concept as 'a curb to all reform', searched for a rebuttal in the study of institutional economics. The Pennsylvania protectionists, centred about Henry C. Carey, attacked the Malthusian concept as a barrier to the proposed 'American system' which was designed to increase population densities by promoting industrial growth. The fusion of these two schools of thought with the Free Soil elements in the Republican party brought about what many at the time considered a decisive defeat of the Malthusian philosophy in America. Clearly this was not so, for Malthus was never more popular than in post-Civil War America. Why this was so is the subject of this paper. There are various possibilities: The growing influence of Spencer, Mill and Darwin was certainly a factor, and four years of civil bloodshed appear to have reconciled many to the tragic view of life found in the Malthusian concept. Also, the wagefund doctrine was widely accepted during this period of industrial growth. Whatever the reasons, Malthus again proved his curious vitality after being buried by his enemies.