Estimating the emigration rates of legal immigrants using administrative and survey data: The 1971 cohort of immigrants to the United States

Based on administrative and survey data as well as data-based assumptions about the bounds on alien address reporting, this study provides estimates of the lower and upper bounds for the cumulative net emigration rates, by country and area of origin, of the FY1971 cohort of legal immigrants to the United States as of January 1979. The merged data indicate that the cumulative net emigration rate for the entire cohort could have been as high as 50 percent. Canadian emigration was probably between 51 and 55 percent. Emigration rates for legal immigrants from Central America, the Caribbean (excluding Cuba), and South America were at least as high as 50 percent, and could have been as high as 70 percent. Emigration rates for Koreans and Chinese could not have exceeded 22 percent over the same period.     

Emigration from Canada in the 1960s

Summary Emigration from Canada can be assessed only by indirect means. Here, survival ratios have been applied to the total population enumerated in the 1961 Census and to particular segments of it, so that a comparison of the calculated numbers in 1971 with the population actually enumerated indicates the volume of emigration during the decade, both in the whole population and in certain groups. Amounting to two-thirds of the number of immigrants during the same period, the estimate for the ten years is exactly double the volume of emigration reported to the Joint Parliamentary Committee on immigration policy of 1975. Since 1971, the level of emigration has probably fallen. Of the 960,000 emigrants during the decade, 42 per cent were Canadian-born. Their favourite destination was the United States; immigrants, on the other hand, tended to return home. Many immigrants now stay in Canada for only a few years. Fewer Canadians emigrate to the United States. These two factors have contributed to a new pattern of emigration, up-to-date details of which will not be ascertained before the Census of 1981.     

Norwegian cohort emigration

This paper introduces a counterfactual technique to estimate net emigration from Norwegian birth cohorts from 1846 to 1900. A main finding is that despite strong fluctuations in annual emigration, the percentage reduction of each cohort due to emigration was surprisingly stable for all cohorts from 1846 to 1886, with net emigration of about 30% for males and about 20% for females. Estimating an econometric model of annual male gross emigration by single years of age 15–60 in the period 1870–1914, we find that previous net emigration from a cohort reduces later gross emigration from the same cohort. The estimations also give some justification for attributing this to selectivity of emigration, in the sense that only a certain proportion of each cohort were potential migrants. Received: 1 October 1997/Accepted: 23 March 2000     

Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files

The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without "direct" methods (i.e., methods identifying who emigrates and when), demographers have relied on indirect approaches, such as residual methods. Residual estimates, however are sensitive to inaccuracies in their constituent parts and are particularly ill-suited for measuring the emigration of recent arrivals. Here we introduce a new method for estimating foreign-born emigration that takes advantage of the sample design of the Current Population Survey (CPS): repeated interviews of persons in the same housing units over a period of 16 months. Individuals appearing in a first March Supplement to the CPS but not the next include those who died in the intervening year, those who moved within the country, and those who emigrated. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not present in the follow-up interview. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to those from residual methods in the case of longer-term residents (immigrants who arrived more than 10 years ago), but yields higher--and what appear to be more accurate--estimates for recent arrivals. Although somewhat constrained by sample size, we also generate estimates by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence in the United States.     

人口迁移、城市圈与房地产价格——基于空间计量学的研究

本文结合我国正兴起的城市圈建设趋势,基于1997~1999年广东省各地级市的数据,构建联立方程模型,利用空间计量方法,研究珠三角城市圈内人口迁移与房地产价格之间的关系。结果发现,不仅传统的收入、消费以及人口迁移等因素可以显著地影响房地产价格水平,而且空间地理因素也可以对城市房地产价格产生显著的影响。     

Does emigration benefit the stayers? Evidence from EU enlargement

Around 9 % of the Lithuanian workforce emigrated to Western Europe after the enlargement of the European Union in 2004. I exploit this emigration wave to study the effect of emigration on wages in the sending country. Using household data from Lithuania and work permit and census data from the UK and Ireland, I demonstrate that emigration had a significant positive effect on the wages of stayers. A one-percentage-point increase in the emigration rate predicts a 0.67 % increase in real wages. This effect, however, is only statistically significant for men.     

Australia Farewell: Predictors of Emigration in the 2000s

The factors leading individuals to immigrate to developed contexts are widely studied, but comparatively less is known about those who emigrate from them. In this paper, we use data from a nationally representative cohort of Australian adults to develop longitudinal measures of emigration and to assess how social ties and individual economic position predict emigration. Cox proportional hazards models indicate that the propensity to emigrate is particularly pronounced for those with relatively little social connectedness in Australia. Specifically, our results show that first-generation Australians, especially those with relatively short durations in the country, have substantially higher emigration rates than later-generation Australians. Similarly, having a partner with deeper generational roots in Australia strongly reduces the likelihood to emigrate. At the same time, our analysis also shows that economic position matters, with the not employed having higher risks of emigration. Perhaps most interestingly, estimates from our models reveal that those with university degrees are much more likely to emigrate than individuals with lower levels of education, a finding that is true for both first- and later-generation Australians.     

Emigration and living standards in Ireland since the Famine

Ireland experienced dramatic levels of emigration in the century following the Famine of 1845–1849. The paper surveys the recent cliometric literature on post-Famine emigration and its effects on Irish living standards. The conclusions are that the Famine played a significant role in unleashing the subsequent emigration; and that emigration was crucial for the impressive increase in Irish living standards which took place during the next 100 years.Revised version of a paper read at the ESF Research Conference on Migration and Development, Aghia Pelaghia, Crete, Greece, October 7–12, 1994. I am grateful to Cormac Ó Gráda, Jeffrey Williamson and Klaus F. Zimmermann for comments and suggestions, and especially to three anonymous referees, as well as Tim Hatton and Alan Taylor who suggested the quantitative exercise to be found towards the end of Sect. 3.     

Run away? Air pollution and emigration interests in China

This paper investigates the impact of air pollution on people’s interest in emigration. Using an online search index on “emigration” which is positively correlated with its search volume, we develop a city-by-day measurement of people’s emigration sentiment. We find that searches on “emigration” will grow by approximately 2.3–4.8% the next day if today’s air quality index (AQI) is increased by 100 points. In addition, such an effect is more pronounced when the AQI level is above 200, a sign of “heavily polluted” and “severely polluted” days. We also find that such effect differs by destination countries and by metropolitan areas.     

The encouragement of emigration by British trade unions, 1850–1900

During the nineteenth century periodic fluctuations in industrial activity, strikes and lock-outs which accompanied the struggle of unions for recognition, and the ever increasing consciousness of the industrial worker that one serious trade setback could wipe out the savings of his lifetime, were important ‘pushes’ to emigration from the United Kingdom. The British trade unions responded to this ‘push’ from their own members and from thousands of unorganized workers for relief through emigration.

Contrary to the statements of historians of the English trade-union movement, emigration was not a project of British trade unions in the 1850 decade only; in fact, most of the unions in England's basic industries, mining, iron, textiles and engineering, as well as in many other smaller industries such as glass, cutlery and the building trades, looked upon emigration as necessary to improve the standard of life of the English workers. This viewpoint was natural to the ‘New Unionists’ of the 1850's, who accepted the principle that supply and demand regulated wages and prices. The trade unions, however, disapproved of emigration to the United States where workers would go to a rival trade; such emigration could not diminish the absolute number of workers in the industry. Instead, they advocated emigration to farms in the British colonies; but, nevertheless, most of the persons aided by English trade unions to emigrate went to the United States. The hesitancy of skilled workers to leave a familiar occupation appeared to be the most important reason for this.

Desirable as emigration was to trade unionists in times of trade crises, the leaders met overwhelming difficulties when they tried to use it as a safety valve. In the cotton famine and the iron-trade lock-outs of the sixties, for example, unions had no money to aid emigration, and were forced to seek grants from United States manufacturers to help needy workers to go to America. Although they were relatively helpless in times of crisis, the trade unions assisted emigration during good years, believing that such a policy would ease the severity of the inevitable next crisis. Most of the established unions had regularly operating emigration grants by which members in good standing could receive a sum of money in aid of emigration, usually enough to pay at least one passage to America. This benefit helped some of the most skilled workers and loyal union members to leave England for America.

The trade unions, in making these grants, had to adjust the amount of money given to the ‘state of health’ of the union treasury; thus, during crises when the treasuries were low the emigration benefits were often discontinued. As the years passed and the number of British workers in America increased, the unions hesitated to send men abroad during depressions or strikes in the United States. Not only did American workmen complain of such competition, but also English workers disliked to see men whom they had previously assisted to ‘take their labour abroad’ return home.

From 1850 until well into the 1880's, when most of the English trade unions were encouraging and aiding emigration, their influence actually was most effective toward that end in times of prosperity in the United States. It was the depression of the eighties and the rise of unions of unskilled workers and leaders who looked for improvement through Socialism rather than through adjusting the supply of labour, which finally eclipsed emigration as a panacea for the English working class.     

Emigration from the USA: Multiplicity survey evidence

Special national surveys in the 1980s give the only recent data about emigrants from the USA, based on asking residents about their parents, siblings, and children living outside the USA who ever lived here. Each of the three surveys yielded an initial or minimal estimate of at least one million surviving emigrants. Adjusting for probable omission of emigrants without a resident immediate relative, the number of emigrants surviving as of 1990 is likely to exceed two million and, with alternative assumptions, could exceed three million. Due to inherent uncertainties in differing methodologies for measuring emigration for the past three decades, the implied level of emigration of permanent residents for the 1980s may be similar to previous levels. This finding contradicts popular belief of a simple direct association, i.e., that increasing immigration levels would be associated with increasing emigration levels. Emigration levels result from population heterogeneity on such characteristics as origin country, location and strength of familial ties, and reasons for coming to the USA, and associated probabilities of emigration. For many of the post-1965 immigrant cohorts, there is one or more decades during which emigration may yet occur.Abbreviations ALAs Americans living abroad - INS US Immigration and Naturalization Service - IRCA Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 - CPS Current Population Survey This article is partially based on a paper presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Population Association of America in Toronto, Canada, while the author was a member of the Population Analysis Staff of the US Bureau of the Census.     

Emigration Rates From Sample Surveys: An Application to Senegal

What is the emigration rate of a country, and how reliable is that figure? Answering these questions is not at all straightforward. Most data on international migration are census data on foreign-born population. These migrant stock data describe the immigrant population in destination countries but offer limited information on the rate at which people leave their country of origin. The emigration rate depends on the number leaving in a given period and the population at risk of leaving, weighted by the duration at risk. Emigration surveys provide a useful data source for estimating emigration rates, provided that the estimation method accounts for sample design. In this study, emigration rates and confidence intervals are estimated from a sample survey of households in the Dakar region in Senegal, which was part of the Migration between Africa and Europe survey. The sample was a stratified two-stage sample with oversampling of households with members abroad or return migrants. A combination of methods of survival analysis (time-to-event data) and replication variance estimation (bootstrapping) yields emigration rates and design-consistent confidence intervals that are representative for the study population.     

Who Stays? Who Goes? Selective Emigration Among the Foreign-Born

We investigate the level and selectivity of emigration from the United States among foreign-born adults. We use the CPS Matching Method (Van Hook et al. 2006) to estimate the probability of emigration among foreign-born adults aged 18–34, 35–64 and 65+ from 1996 to 2009 (N = 92,852). The results suggest higher levels of emigration than used in the production of official population estimates. Also, indicators of economic integration (home ownership, school enrollment, poverty) and social ties in the U.S. (citizenship, having young children, longer duration in the United States) deter emigration. Conversely, having connections with the sending society, such as living apart from a spouse, was associated with emigration, particularly among Mexican men. Health was least strongly related to emigration. Simulations suggest that selective emigration may alter the home ownership and marital status, but not health, composition of immigrant cohorts. The implications for public policy are discussed.     

人口外流对韶关经济发展的影响

改革开放后,韶关的经济发展与全省尤其是珠三角的差距逐渐扩大,由此带动韶关山20世纪90年代初的人口净流入地区转变为21世纪初的人口净流出地区。本文利用“五普”资料,深入分析了韶关人口外流的现状特点成因、发展趋势及对经济发展的影响,并就政府应如何合理组织好人口流动,特别是如何制定行之有效的政策措施留住人才提出了对策建议。     

Push-factors in Emigration: The Case of the Province of Zeeland in the Nineteenth Century

Despite a low emigration rate compared to other European countries in the last century, Dutch emigration has been well studied, mainly because of the very fine state of the records. This paper seeks to contribute to general issues in emigration by considering data from a limited but important area, the province of Zeeland in The Netherlands, which was one of the principal contributors to Dutch emigration to North America during the nineteenth century. The subject-matter is the motivation of those emigrants, and the analysis concentrates on factors in the place of origin. ‘Pull-factors’ that attract emigrants to their destinations are acknowledged to be important, but are not studied here; a wide range of social, economic, and political variables in Zeeland are computed. Two sets of factors are found to govern the ‘push’ : the first are deprivation factors, such as epidemics, bad harvests, poverty, and persecution. At the same time, it is posited that many emigrants left for precisely the opposite reason : that things were going well in the home country. Besides revealing something of the migration process itself, this approach has the advantage of increasing our understanding of the country of origin or ‘push-area’, where other sources may be incomplete or ambiguous.     

Dispersal of adult grasshoppers,Mecostethus magister, under the field condition

Summary Estimation of the number of adult grasshoppers,Mecostethus magister, was made by means of the mark-and-recapture method. The birth and death rates are possible to be estimated at the same time, but the immigration and the emigration rate are inevitably involved in these respectively. The immigration and emigration rates must be made clear to know the true birth and death rates. For this purpose the movement of the marked males in 1963 was analyzed. The grasshoppers dominantly moved in the directions of N, NW and W, and the difference in frequency among the movement directions was not so large. The distribution of the dispersal-distance relationship of each quadrate on each released day was fitted approximately to normal distribution. It could be concluded that almost all of the grasshoppers moved within the range of about 31–35m. The emigration rate from the quadrate (12×12m²) was about 0.73–0.77 and the difference in the rate among the released days was small. From these values the emigration rate from the station (84×60m²) was estimated as 0.21–0.23. Subtracting the emigration rate from the death-and-emigration rate, the true death rate was calculated. The death rate was very low until the number of males reached to the peak, then increased gradually. Supposing that immigration rate was equal to the emigration rate, the true birth rate was also estimated. But the presumption might not be pertinent, for the value of birth rates became negative.     

Highly Skilled Migration from Africa to the US: Exit Mechanisms,Demographic Determinants,and the Role of Socioeconomic Trends

Despite increases in research on the migration of skilled Africans to the developed world, few studies have examined the specific mechanisms of departure contributing to these trends. Previous studies further contain limited analysis of how these mechanisms respond to Africa’s changing social and demographic trends. This study uses data from various sources to examine these issues. The results indicate that, in absolute terms, overall emigration flows of highly skilled Africans to the US more than doubled between 1980 and 2010. In addition, they suggest that previous arguments indicating that the recruitment of African professionals drives these flows understate the role of student migration in driving these movements. In the past three decades, more skilled Africans migrated to the US through student migration mechanisms than through any mechanism associated with the recruitment of workers. Furthermore, in recent years, the Diversity Visa Program has become the second most important mechanism through which skilled emigration from Africa occurs. Finally, the analysis finds that trends in African student emigration are highly responsive to youth population growth and that, surprisingly, the migration of skilled professionals is less influenced by African economic trends than by economic trends in the US.

     

Emigration from the british isles to the u.s.a. In 1831

Abstract This is a first attempt to use the original passenger manifests from immigrant ships entering U.S. ports to see what can be learned about emigration from the British Isles during the period of most rapid industrialization and urbanization between the Napoleonic Wars and the beginning of mass emigration in the late 1840s. Based on lists compiled during the years 1827 to 1831, the article demonstrates that these original lists contain more social and demographic information about migrants than was ever published by the U.S. government and also that the official statistics that were published were incomplete and exaggerated the fish share in the immigration through U.S ports. The English immigration is shown to have been predominantly a family movement in 1831, but most migrants chose to emigrate at favourable moments in the life cycle. Occupations and countries with low incomes were not well represented among English migrants through U.S. ports. As early as 1831, the majority of men among the English immigrants were industrial workers, though farmers (as distinct from farm labourers) were over-represented.     

Individual and Community Aspects of Women's Status and Fertility in Rural Bangladesh

Samples from the U.S. passenger lists are used to focus upon the emigrants from England to the U.S.A. during 1841. Probably as many as three-quarters of the English emigrants of that year made the U.S.A. their destination, though only a minority of Irish and Scottish emigrants sailed directly to U.S. ports. The English appear very largely to have spurned the unusual opportunities for assisted emigration to colonies that were available that year. The occupations of male emigrants are compared with occupations reported in the population census of 1841. Farmers, general labourers, and industrial workers, particularly those employed in textile industries, were overrepresented among the emigrants. Yet the movement was not predominantly an exodus of labourers from agriculture, nor from some of the most depressed occupations such as framework knitters and nailers. Various occupational groups are analyzed according to travelling companions, dependants and age, in an effort to distinguish between the more cycle-sensitive groups and those seemingly intent on permanent emigration.     

海外新移民与当代农村文化变迁——基于福建沿海J村的调查分析

作为当代农村人口流动的一种新现象,海外新移民潮的兴起对迁出地社会文化变迁的影响日益显著。本文以福建沿海J村为个案,通过对农民生活方式转变、个人价值观念更新以及农村传统伦理道德规范变化的依次分析,从微观角度对当代出国移民潮所引发的农村文化变迁进行解读,指出该现象是一个“传统”与“现代”发生搏弈、变异与融合的复杂过程,并呈现出“双刃剑”效应。