Public response to the 1970 census: A Wisconsin survey

The 1970 census included numerous procedural innovations, of which the most important was the use of mail-out/mail-back techniques. A statewide survey of Wisconsin households (conducted in May and June, 1970) included questions designed to elicit information on the degree of cooperation rendered, ease of comprehension of the form, possible objectionable items on the census, whether or not contacts were made by enumerators, and respondent judgments of the adequacy of enumerators’ performance. The results indicate that Wisconsin respondents tended to comply with census procedures, that they found very little difficulty in filling out the mailed forms, and that they regarded the census enumerators as doing a “good job” in most cases.     

农村外出妇女的生育意愿分析——基于鄂州、黄石、仙桃三地数据

本文利用2009年2月在鄂州、黄石、仙桃农村外出和未外出育龄妇女的调查数据,通过列联分析和logistic二元回归分析,从四个方面分别考察了外出与未外出育龄妇女生育意愿的关系及其影响因素。结果发现．育龄妇女的意愿子女数主要受其年龄、受教育程度、职业状况等个人特征的影响,外出过的妇女的意愿子女数要显著少于未外出过的妇女,这种差异主要是由于外出妇女与未外出妇女本身的结构差异所引起的,外出本身对育龄妇女的意愿子女数并没有显著作用;在生育目的上,外出与未外出妇女存在显著性差异,外出能弱化传统思想在妇女生育动机中的作用;在意愿生育性别和意愿生育时间这两个方面外出和未外出妇女没有显著性的差异。     

Study of age misstatement among young children in Ghana

In the 1960 Population Census of Ghana, the first attempt to enumerate the population by single years of age was made. The use of these data to estimate fertility levels was rendered somewhat difficult by the pattern assumed by the age statement of children. This pattern was similar to others found widely in developing countries. There appeared to be unexpectedly few children under two years of age and more children aged three years than any other single age. In order to investigate such age reporting, and in the hope of being able to provide some kind of correction to the census data, an attempt was made to trace one thousand children 0-99 months of age in ten different centers, with knoum dates of registered birth. If found, they were approached, as if by census enumerators, to obtain statements of age from the families. The investigation had to be confined to the compulsory registration areas where an eighth of the population of the country lives.It was found that age misstatement occurs partly because of digital preference but even more commonly because of a tendency to approximate age to the nearest birthday. Thus, when age misstatement occurs through the latter cause, it always takes the form of age advancement. Errors in age statement of more than one year fell evenly and randomly above and below the correct age. The age data in years were not appreciably affected by seeking further information on age in years and months. However, it was shown that the standard deviation of stated from real age was approximately proportional to real age and was equal to about one-eighth of it.The findings were then applied to the 1960 enumeration, where some problems such as the small number of one-year-olds, were solved. More work is needed to explain satisfactorily the peaking at three years of age. It was shown that age advancement may have reduced the size of the 0-4 age group by about 5 percent relative to adult female age groups, and this would result in an understatement of fertility as measured by the child/woman age ratio of the same amount.The research described in this paper was program of that post. With the exception of a carried out when the writer held the Population part of the analysis which has been carried out at Council demography post attached to the University of Ghana and formed part of the research program of that post. With the exception of a carried out when the writer held the Population part of the analysis which has been carried out at the Australian National University, the project was financed entirely by the Population Council.     

Demographics and Consumption Patterns in Urban China

This study examines differences among urban Chinese consumers and their consumption patterns in three major cities—Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin—utilising data from a nationally representative sample survey conducted in 2005. Differences were found in these consumers’ age distribution, education level, household composition, birth and death rates, income, expenditure patterns and consumer durable ownership rates. Beijing and Shanghai, the two most affluent cities in China, exhibited the highest consumer durable ownership rates and the highest cost of living. While previous research has frequently segmented China in terms of a rural versus urban dichotomy or by geographic region, this study suggests that the urban Chinese do not constitute a homogeneous market. Further, it is suggested that both geographic region and income, which varies between rural and urban settings, are sound bases for segmenting this important market.     

The effect of female migration on infant and child survival in Uganda

This article uses data from the 1996 Uganda Demographic and Health Survey to examine whether migration of women improves the survival chances of their children to age five. We expand on prior research by testing not only the hypothesized positive effect of rural-urban migration, but also the effects of other migration stream behaviours on child survival. Results show that up to 10% of children die before age five and within-group differences in mortality exist among urban and rural children depending on their mother's migration status. Only urban-urban migration was significantly related to child survival, compared to rural non-migrants, after controlling for other factors, although other streams of migration (rural-urban, urban-rural, rural-rural) were positively related to child survival. Generally, migration explains a small component of the variance in child survival. Several other factors, including parents' education, household size, household headship, mother's age at birth, duration of breastfeeding, and place of delivery have a significant predictive power on child survival.     

进城农民工文化人格重塑对城市化进程的影响

通过对进城务工农民访谈案例的描述．就进城农民工文化人格嬗变和重塑的文化机制作用进行了合作博弈分析。结果表明,进域农民工在参与、融入城市社区过程中．通过人际传播表现出来的文化冲突主要来源于个人化不信任经过多人、多次的积淀。从而产生一般化不信任。经过一个长期的磨合．在城市文化机制与农村文化机制的共同作用下,个人化信任经过多人、多次的积淀,从而产生一般化信任。最终实现农民工参与、融入到城市社区。农民工市民化的正式制度的形成,必须先有进城农民工文化人格嬗变和重塑的非正式制度的支撑才能实现。进城农民工文化人格的嬗变和重塑是影响城市化进程以及城市发展的先决条件．     

An experiment with census-type age enumeration in Nigeria

Abstract Censuses were held and data subsequently published in Nigeria in 1952/3 and 1963. Age data and other aspects of the enumerations gave rise to considerable doubts. In 1969 the Demographic Training and Research Unit of the University of Ife carried out a census of ages amongst 10,000 persons in the Western State of Nigeria employing in succession orthodox methods, supporting historical records, and two approaches involving the identification of single-year cohorts of contemporaries. Certain other data were also collected for explanatory purposes. The project confirmedthe tendency for age misstatement to exaggerate the number of females aged 20-44 and the number of older males, and to understate the number of persons aged 0-9 and females aged 50-59. It was shown that amongst females, aged 15-24, there is a significant tendency for the ages of the unmarried to be understated and those of the married, expecially those of higher parity, to be overstated. Such tendencies may be reduced by any type of enumeration if more time and care is allowed but anomalously this may increase the underenumeration of the very young. The more elaborate methods of enumeration are examinedto see whether they yield more accurate data and whether their use would be possible in a national census. Age statement was examined in some detail and it was shown that the majority of data originate neither with respondents nor enumerators but with third parties, who may wellbe continuing and untrainable sources of biassed error. The project provided more evidence than anticipated on the validity of the 1963 Census in the area, thus leaving the relative validity of the 1952/3 and 1963 censuses and hence the likely population of Nigeria still an open question.     

Comparing two survey methods for estimating maternal and perinatal mortality in rural Cambodia

PURPOSE: We need solid estimates of maternal mortality rates (MMR) to monitor the impact of maternal care programs. Cambodian health authorities and WHO report the MMR in Cambodia at 450 per 100,000 live births. The figure is drawn from surveys where information is obtained by interviewing respondents about the survival of all their adult sisters (sisterhood method). The estimate is statistically imprecise, 95% confidence intervals ranging from 260 to 620/100,000. The MMR estimate is also uncertain due to under-reporting; where 80-90% of women deliver at home maternal fatalities may go undetected especially where mortality is highest, in remote rural areas. The aim of this study was to attain more reliable MMR estimates by using survey methods other than the sisterhood method prior to an intervention targeting obstetric rural emergencies. PROCEDURES: The study was carried out in rural Northwestern Cambodia where access to health services is poor and poverty, endemic diseases, and land mines are endemic. Two survey methods were applied in two separate sectors: a community-based survey gathering data from public sources and a household survey gathering data direct from primary sources. FINDINGS: There was no statistically significant difference between the two survey results for maternal deaths, both types of survey reported mortality rates around the public figure. The household survey reported a significantly higher perinatal mortality rate as compared to the community-based survey, 8.6% versus 5.0%. Also the household survey gave qualitative data important for a better understanding of the many problems faced by mothers giving birth in the remote villages. There are detection failures in both surveys; the failure rate may be as high as 30-40%. PRINCIPLE CONCLUSION: Both survey methods are inaccurate, therefore inappropriate for evaluation of short-term changes of mortality rates. Surveys based on primary informants yield qualitative information about mothers' hardships important for the design of future maternal care interventions.     

Demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand

Abstract Data from a national rural and urban sample survey are analysed in order to examine various demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand. Marital fertility rates found for Thailand are among the highest in Asia. Particularly noteworthy is the persistence of high fertility at older ages of childbearing for rural women. Cumulative fertility shows a pronounced relationship with age at marriage and current marital status. Women who marry at an older age or who experience disruption of their marriages are clearly more likely to have fewer children ever born. Differences in both current and cumulative fertility are strongly associated with residence. Rural women who constitute the vast majority of Thai women, experience the highest fertility, Bangkok-Thonburi women experience the lowest fertility and provincial urban women are characterized by an intermediate fertility level which is closer, however, to the experience of their counterparts in the capital than in the countryside. Rural-urban fertility differences are mitigated but by no means eliminated by differences in infant mortality. In both rural and urban areas a positive association between cumulative fertility and infant morality is evident. Breast-feeding, commonly practised for extended periods-among both rural and urban Thai women, undoubtedly serves to some extent as an intervening variable in this relationship. A comparison of current fertility with cumulative fertility strongly suggests that a decline in marital fertility has been under way recently among urban women, especially those residing in the capital, but not at all among rural women. Although it seems safe to assume that the urban fertility decline results in large part from an increasing use of contraception among urban women, those still in the reproductive ages who were using or had previously used birth control were characterized by higher cumulative fertility than women who had never practised contraception. Evidently couples resort to family planning only late in the family building process after they have already achieved or exceeded the number of children they wish to have.     

Determinants of off-farm work and temporary migration in China

Existing research inadequately explains the factors that drive temporary internal migration in China. Using data for 2005 drawn from 1,903 households in 43 rural villages, we calculate binomial and multinomial logit (BL, MNL) models of probabilities that an adult belongs to one of three categories of worker—on-farm, off-farm, or temporary migrant—as a function of individual and household characteristics. We control for village fixed effects, paying close attention to male/female differences. Nearly all coefficients—even for village dummies—vary significantly by sex. For two variables—age and schooling—the relationships are non-linear. There is an optimal age and amount of schooling that maximizes the probability that a worker will be employed away from the family farm. For schooling, this is low, suggesting that educated workers are underemployed. This might indicate that schooling beyond primary grades is poor quality, or at least inappropriate for the job market.     

Apostles and Zionists: The influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or `Spirit-type' churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

中国人口年龄结构特征与变化趋势分析--基于1995～2014年数据的实证研究

人口年龄结构是经过多年人口自然增长和迁移变动等综合作用而形成的客观状况,对未来人口发展的速度和趋势以及国家或地区经济社会整体发展产生重要影响。本文通过对1995～2014年数据的实证分析,发现20年来我国人口年龄结构呈现以下特征：少儿人口数量减少且比重呈持续下降趋势;劳动年龄人口数量稳步增长且比重呈稳定上升趋势;老年人口数量持续增长且比重呈上升趋势,老龄化进程加快。总体人口年龄结构呈现老年型,各地区人口老龄化程度存在差异。各地人口负担系数存在较大差异,人均GDP与总抚养比和少年儿童抚养比呈负相关,与老年人口抚养比呈正相关。经济发达省市区人口负担系数较小;城乡人口比例呈持续升高态势;城乡人口总抚养比和少儿抚养比呈下降趋势,城乡老年人口抚养比呈稳步升高态势;乡村人口抚养比高于城镇。     

Fertility levels and trends in Indonesia

Summary Fertility estimates from the 1973 Indonesian Fertility Mortality Survey are presented and compared with estimates from the 1971 population census. Although there are some differences, on the whole the two sources are remarkably consistent, indicating the same regional differentials: highest fertility in Sumatra (T.F.R. in rural areas around 7.0), followed by West Java and Sulawesi, Bali, then Central and East Java (T.F.R. in rural areas around 50). Coale's Index of Overall Fertility (If) is 39 per cent higher in rural Sumatra than in rural East Java. Fertility in urban areas is somewhat below rural fertility in all regions. The age pattern of fertility in Sumatra, Sulawesi and West Java is consistent with Henry's notion of 'natural fertility', and indeed the survey data show these regions to be almost innocent of deliberate practice of contraception. The lower fertility levels in Central and East Java appear to be related to patterns of extended lactation and post-partum abstinence, though modern contraception promoted by the national family planning programme is also on the increase. Though lower than elsewhere, both actual fertility and stated ideal family size in Central and East Java are well above the levels needed to achieve replacement levels of fertility.     

Effects of changes in rainfall and temperature on age- and sex-specific patterns of rural-urban migration in sub-Saharan Africa

We evaluate how changes in weather patterns affected rural-urban migration across 41 sub-Saharan African countries, by age and sex, over the 1980–2015 period. We combine recent age- and sex-specific estimates of net rural-urban migration with historical data on rainfall and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (CRU). We also compare standard unweighted estimates of rainfall and temperature to estimates weighted by the proportion of the country’s total rural population in the CRU grid. Results show that rural out-migration of young adults is the most sensitive to shifts in weather patterns, with lower rainfall, lower variability in rainfall, and higher temperatures increasing subsequent rural out-migration—though the last of these is not observed in weighted models. The strength of these effects has grown stronger over time for 20–24 year olds, though weaker above age 30. In contrast, increasing temperature variability is associated with a higher rural in-migration of children (0–9) and older adults (55–64). Gender differences in these effects are minimal and concentrated in areas which experienced heavy reductions in rainfall.

     

新生代农村流动人口内部生活满意度差异研究--以江苏省为例

新生代农村流动人口正逐渐成为中国农村流动人口的主体。与老一代相比,新生代农村流动人口具有较为不同的客观经济社会属性和主观认知特征,而其生活满意度又将影响其未来的市民化决策。本文基于2012年江苏省外出青年农村流动人口调研,运用结构方程模型研究发现,新生代农村流动人口内部已出现较为明显的年龄差异。对于影响生活满意度的因子,新生代农村流动人口客观属性上的差异主要体现在所处生命周期的不同,而主观认知的不同则更多体现了时代背景的变化。     

Apostles and Zionists: the influence of religion on demographic change in rural Zimbabwe

Religion has acted as a brake on demographic transition in a number of historical and contemporary populations. In a study in two rural areas of Zimbabwe, we found substantial differences in recent demographic trends between Mission and Independent or "Spirit-type" churches. Birth rates are higher in some Spirit-type churches and, until recently, infant mortality was also higher. Recent increases in mortality were seen within Mission churches but not in Spirit-type churches. Missiological and ethnographic data indicate that differences in religious teaching on healthcare-seeking and sexual behaviour and differences in church regulation could explain this contrast in demographic patterns. More restrictive norms on alcohol consumption and extra-marital relationships in Spirit-type churches may limit the spread of HIV and thereby reduce its impact on mortality. These contrasting trends will influence the future religious and demographic profile of rural populations in Zimbabwe.     

The Mediating Role of Perceived Parental Warmth and Parental Punishment in the Psychological Well-Being of Children in Rural China

Research has documented that parenting practices, such as parental warmth and parental punishment, play a mediating role in linking individual (e.g., age, gender) and familial characteristics (e.g., economic status, marital quality) to the psychological well-being of children. However, few studies have validated these connections with respect to the Chinese population, especially those in rural areas of China plagued with unfavorable conditions such as poverty and lack of education. In this study, we investigated whether child (age, gender, and sibship size), and familial characteristics (family wealth, parental education, and marital quality) indirectly contribute to the children??s psychological well-being (as indicated by their self-reported internalizing and externalizing problems) through their perceived parental warmth and parental punishment. Using structural equation modeling, we analyzed data collected from 2,000 children (ages 9?C13) and their parents in rural China. The results reveal significant, indirect relationships from family wealth and marital quality to these children??s externalizing problems through parental warmth and parental punishment. There are age and gender differences in the children??s experiencing internalizing and externalizing problems. Gender differences are also found in their perceived parental warmth and parental punishment. Directions for future research are discussed.     

Residence background and fertility in Greater Bombay

Abstract The residence background of wives who migrate to metropolitan areas plays an important role in determining their fertility. From the data collected during 1966, relating to 7,872 currently married women of Greater Bombay, an attempt was made to establish differentials in marital fertility by residence background of the wives. This was categorized into three groups - non-migrants, urban migrants and rural migrants. It was observed that rural migrant wives exhibited significantly higher fertility compared with the other two groups, and this was explained by their lower educational attainment. Between the non-migrant and the urban migrant wives the latter consistently showed lower fertility for all age groups up to 40, while there was a reversal in the age group 40 and above, where non-migrants exhibited lower fertility. The urban migrant wives showed a somewhat higher level of education, most likely on account of selectivity, compared to the non-migrants. However, presence of a sizeable number of Parsee wives, characterized by a distinct urban culture and considerably lower fertility, was largely responsible for the low fertility of the non-migrant wives in the age group 40 and above. The variable that has emerged as the most influential in creating fertility differentials is education of the wife, which is shown to be negatively associated with the level of fertility. Wife's education explains to a large extent the observed fertility differentials by residence background.     

城乡老年人生活质量与人口社会学特征关联初探

人口老龄化使我国老年人口数量迅速增长,呈现出老龄化+少子化的人口结构新常态。江苏省老龄化比例为20.57%,居全国各省区之首,老龄化区域和城乡差异也更加显著。兴化地区地处苏北农村,呈现小城市大农村结构,经济欠发达,城乡人群的生活水平差距较大。本研究目标人群为兴化城乡老年人群,通过调查城乡老年人群人口社会学和生活质量的变化特征和相关性,为政府和社会对老龄化事业的发展与决策提供依据。总计305例60岁以上的老年人群参与调查。结果显示,城市老年人群已婚、与子女住、文化程度、退休和自觉家庭经济情况良好等人口社会学特征维度好于农村人群（P≤0.01）;而农村丧偶、独居、没有工作和自觉家庭经济情况差等维度高于城市人群（P≤0.01）;男性老年人群文化程度显著高于女性（P<0.01）;冠心病患病构成比上,农村老年人群显著高于城市老年人群（P<0.01）,男性老年人群高于女性（P<0.05）;而女性老年人群患高脂血症构成比显著高于男性（P<0.01）。结果提示,兴化地区城乡老年人群生活质量差异显著,但城乡老年人群在躯体健康和疾病防治中的差异已经明显缩小,说明老年人生活质量的变化与人口社会学特征相关联。在经济持续发展和人口结构老龄化的新常态下,社会和家庭应更多地关注和改善老年人群,尤其是农村老年人群的生存环境,提高他们的生活质量。     

Cancer in Poland: general characteristics

The author reviews cancer patterns in Poland, with a focus on the incidence of new cancer cases, age and sex differences, and causes of death. The impact of urban or rural residence, life-style, and population aging is considered.