Aspects of recent trends in marriage in England and Wales

The purpose of this paper is to investigate recent trends in marriage habits in England and Wales. Special interest has been attached-throughout to comparing the course of developments for the two sexes. The investigation was originally begun because it was noticed that developments in male and female marriage-rates had been very different in the past half-century.     

Timing effects on first marriage: twentieth-century experience in England and Wales and the USA

Recent substantial declines in first marriage in Western countries have been accompanied by increases in the average age at first marriage. Since the period proportion ever marrying, PEM, is sensitive to cohort tempo changes, the recent fall in the PEM may simply reflect cohort delays in marriage. The importance of timing factors is examined in the light of twentieth-century experience of first marriage in England and Wales and the USA. Using a variant of the Timing Index developed in research on fertility, we measure cohort timing effects for marriage and calculate an adjusted PEM. After examining twentieth-century trends in nuptiality for men and women, we find substantial tempo effects on the period PEM. Adjusted PEM values show a real decline in marriage for cohorts, but that decline is considerably smaller than the one shown by the unadjusted figures. This is especially true for England and Wales, where the decline in marriage was much greater.     

A note on racial differences in the effecty of female economic opportunity on marriage rates

The previously observed aggregate relationship between marriage rates and female work opportunities is not found among black Americans. Alternative definitions of family formation which take illegitimacy into consideration are explored and also found to be unrelated to black females’ economic opportunities. Although some of the difference may be attributed to measurement error, the significant disparity between the two populations probably reflects substantive differences.     

On the tempo of childbearing in England and Wales

Abstract The paper describes a computerized model developed to simulate the fertility of a hypothetical marriage cohort in a closed population. The model was applied to England and Wales fertility data of marriage cohorts of the years 1951 to 1970. For each of these cohorts, the computer was programmed to construct five series of tables showing birth-order probabilities, family size frequency distribution, mean length of intervals between marriage and successive births, parity progression ratios and mean family sizes of fertile women. The results showed that the fertility of the cohorts of women who married between the middle 1950s and the early 1960s was character ized by a declining trend in the frequency of childlessness and by a dramatic increase in the proportion of marriages with two or more children. Since 1964 or so, there has been a downward trend in duration-specific birth-order probabilities. The analysis suggests that the recent drop in fertility may well prove to be the effect of an upward shift in the timing of births as well as a fall in completed fertility.     

Immigrant suicide in Australia,Canada, England and Wales,and the United States

Factors influencing the suicide rates of numerous immigrants in groups in Australia, Canada, England and Wales, and the United States during the period 1959–73 were examined. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for the origin, immigrant and destination native-born populations using the Canadian native-born age-sex-specific suicide rates as the standard. For males, the foreign-born in England and Wales had the lowest suicide rates and the foreign-born in the United States the highest. For females the variation was smaller, with immigrants in the United States having the lowest rates, and those in Australia the highest. Agespecific suicide rates indicated that relative to the native-born, foreign-born elderly had substantially elevated risks of suicide.     

Enclaves, neighbourhood effects and employment outcomes: Ethnic minorities in England and Wales

Ethnic minorities in England and Wales are spatially concentrated in relatively-deprived urban areas. Both geographic clustering and the economic characteristics of ethnically-concentrated neighbourhoods can impact upon the opportunities and constraints facing residents of such areas. This paper explores the relationship between the existence of enclaves and the employment prospects of ethnic minorities in England and Wales. It is shown that there is considerable spatial variation in employment outcomes. There is a lower incidence of self-employment in more ethnically-concentrated urban areas, which contradicts the view of ethnic entrepreneurship as an enclave phenomenon. Unemployment rates are also higher for minorities living in more concentrated areas. Enclaves in England and Wales do not appear to offer many economic benefits to minority individuals. Received: 31 December 1999/Accepted: 27 November 2000     

The influence of fluctuations in economic conditions on fertility and marriage rates, Australia, 1920-21 to 1937-38 and 1946-47 to 1966-67

Abstract It has been widely observed that both cross-sectionally and secularly there has been a negative relationship between income or level of living and the family size of married females. 1 At the same time the relationship between economic indicators and current fertility with a lag of one or more years over the business cycle has been found to be strongly positive. In fact the persistence of the latter relationship over a wide area and varying periods led Dr. Thomas to remark that it has been one of the most firmly based empirical findings in any of the social sciences.     

Fertility decline in Scotland, England and Wales, and Ireland: comparisons from the 1911 census of fertility

Data on family size by year of marriage, age at marriage, and duration of marriage, from the 1911 Fertility Census, are compared between Scotland, England and Wales, Irish county boroughs, and the rest of Ireland. While means show significant inter-country differences, from the 1880s marked similarities are found across all the countries in the pattern of fertility decline, strongly suggesting significant fertility limitation in rural Ireland well before 1911. Noting the implications for the use of rural Ireland as a natural fertility population, the data are instead compared with the Coale-Trussell and Hinde-Woods schedules. The former provides more plausible results, which imply strong period rather than cohort effects in the fertility decline. Except in rural Ireland, little evidence is found for significant fertility limitation early in marriage among younger marrying couples, but many older marrying couples appear to have stopped childbearing at very low parities from an early date.     

The spread of urbanization in England and Wales, 1851-1951

Abstract Each county in England and Wales has been classified as rural or urban for each of the decennial census years 1851-1951. One index has been used as the basis for these classifications, the percentage of adult males occupied in agriculture. Thus, for each census year a value, in term of this index, was fixed as the criterion to determine whether a county was rural or urban in that year. This criterion of classification varies, over time. This is to allow for the reduction in the percentage of adult males occupied in agriculture as a result of structural changes in the occupational distribution (associated with general modernization), rather than through a shift away from agriculture. The geographical patterns of urbanization in England and Wales during the period 1851-1951, and some associated social and economic changes, are discussed in the paper.     

Job opportunities,economic resources,and the postsecondary destinations of American youth

Using a nationally representative sample of graduates from the high school class of 2003-2004, I test the warehouse hypothesis, which contends that youth are more likely to leave school and enter the labor force when there are available job opportunities (and vice versa). Using two measures of job opportunities—local unemployment rates and the percentage of local workers employed in jobs that require a bachelor’s degree—I find support for the warehouse hypothesis. In areas where unemployment is low, with ample jobs that do not require a bachelor’s degree, youth have higher odds of entering the labor force. In areas where unemployment is high, with few jobs that require only a high school diploma, youth have higher odds of entering college. The effect of unemployment on enrollment is more pronounced for low-income youth than for high-income youth, with both low- and high-income youth turning to four-year schools rather than two-year schools when job opportunities are limited.     

A study of internal migration in England and Wales : Part I

Abstract Statistics ofpersons classified jointly by county of birth and county ofresidence have been published in the England and Wales census volumes since 1851 and the present study draws mainly on these data. A group of persons recorded in a census as natives of county A and residents of county Bare sometimes referred to as lifetime migrants from county A to county B. Statistics of lifetime migrants have often been used in studies of internal migration but these have one great disadvantage. The number of lifetime migrants from A to B does not relate to a specific period of time. It is impossible, for example, in such studies to consider the association between specific migration streams and differential economic activity. An attempt is made in this study to transform lifetime migration data into intercensal migration streams. Some of the results are presented and the most significant migration patterns during the period 1851-1951 are described.     

A study of internal migration in England and Wales : Part I

Statistics ofpersons classified jointly by county of birth and county ofresidence have been published in the England and Wales census volumes since 1851 and the present study draws mainly on these data. A group of persons recorded in a census as natives of county A and residents of county Bare sometimes referred to as lifetime migrants from county A to county B. Statistics of lifetime migrants have often been used in studies of internal migration but these have one great disadvantage. The number of lifetime migrants from A to B does not relate to a specific period of time. It is impossible, for example, in such studies to consider the association between specific migration streams and differential economic activity.

An attempt is made in this study to transform lifetime migration data into intercensal migration streams. Some of the results are presented and the most significant migration patterns during the period 1851–1951 are described.     

An economic analysis of pregnancy resolution in Virginia: specific as to race and residence

This study analyses an economic model of pregnancy resolution; that is, a model of the choice by a pregnant woman to abort her fetus or carry it to term. This analysis, using an analytical model derived from the household utility framework, adds to previous research by presenting race and residence specific estimates of how individual characteristics, history of abortion, and the community-based factors determine women's choices of giving birth vs. abortion. The main data for estimating the model were drawn from the 1984 vital statistics of all induced abortions and live births in the Commonwealth of Virginia. The major findings indicate that low parental education, high maternal age, previous early abortions, and the availability of abortion providers all significantly reduce the probability of choosing the live birth option. Married status and the availability of family planning clinics significantly increase the probability of the live birth option. The findings also suggest that women's choices between abortion and live birth vary substantially with race (white vs. black) and residential (urban vs. rural) location.I am very grateful to Professors Michael Grossman and Theodore Joyce at CUNY/NBER for their advice and comments on earlier version of this paper, to Professors William Hsiao at Harvard and Richard Ernst at USC for their supportive encouragement and insightful comments, and finally to two anonymous referees for their constructive suggestions in revising this analysis.     

Economic fortunes, ethnic divides, and marriage and fertility in Central Asia: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan compared

Declining marriage and fertility rates following the collapse of state socialism have been the subject of numerous studies in Central and Eastern Europe. More recent literature has focused on marriage and fertility dynamics in the period of post-crisis political stabilization and economic growth. However, relatively little research on marriage and fertility has dealt with the Central Asian part of the post-socialist world. We use survey and published data from Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, two multiethnic countries with differing paths of post-crisis recovery, to examine overall and ethnic-specific trends in entry into marriage and fertility. We find that in both countries rates of entry into marriage continued to decline throughout post-crisis years. By contrast, fertility rose, and this rise was greater in the more prosperous Kazakhstan. However, we also detect considerable ethnic variations in fertility trends which we situate within the ethnopolitical and ethnodemographic contexts of both countries.     

An Increase in the Sex Ratio of Births to India‐born Mothers in England and Wales: Evidence for Sex‐Selective Abortion

Male preference in many Asian cultures results in discriminatory practices against females, including neglect and infanticide. This preference, together with the availability of prenatal sex determination and sex‐selective abortion, has led to an increase in sex ratios at birth in China, India, and South Korea. The resulting expected gender imbalances raise ethical, demographic, and social concerns. We analyzed birth statistics to see whether similar trends are apparent among births to foreign‐born mothers in England and Wales. Before 1990, sex ratios at birth were consistently nearly one point lower (104) for the three major Asian groups in Britain compared with mothers born in Western countries. This is inconsistent with previous suggestions that Asian populations have a higher “natural” sex ratio at birth. In the birth statistics since 1990, we find a four‐point increase in the sex ratio at birth for mothers born in India, attributable particularly to an increase at higher birth orders, mirroring findings reported for India. This suggests that sex‐selective abortion is occurring among mothers born in India and living in Britain. By contrast, no significant increase was observed for Pakistan‐born and Bangladesh‐born mothers, among whom male preference also exists. It seems that male preference in different cultures does not necessarily lead to sex‐selective abortion.     

Bridging the gap: Determining long-term changes in infant mortality in pre-registration England and Wales

Much effort has been expended in analysing a small sample of parish registers to produce national estimates of infant mortality for the period 1570–1840. However, in an age when inter-parish variations in infant mortality were considerable, national trends often obscured local and regional differences. By analysing data from the initial years of Civil Registration (1839–1846) together with infant mortality rates from a range of parishes, it is possible to assess the extent of variation and change in England and Wales during the period 1580–1840. The geographical variations in infant mortality and the age structure of infant deaths were sufficient to suggest that the most important influence on whether infants survived was disease environments.