中国对外移民的区位选择及其影响因素--基于修正零值国际移民引力模型的分析

利用联合国经济和社会事务部国际移民统计数据库中1990－2013年中国对143个国家和地区的移民存量数据,在修正移民零值基础上,采用国际移民引力模型考察了中国对外移民的区位分布及其影响因素。研究结果表明：中国对外移民主要分布在距离较近和收入较高的国家或地区;影响中国对外移民的因素有移民输入国经济发展水平、经济规模、人口规模、制度质量以及距离;移民输入国资源丰富程度和老龄化程度对中国移民没有显著影响。本文的研究结论意味着保持中国经济持续健康发展、提高国民收入水平、继续深化改革提高制度质量对减少人才流失具有重要意义。     

Push-factors in Emigration: The Case of the Province of Zeeland in the Nineteenth Century

Despite a low emigration rate compared to other European countries in the last century, Dutch emigration has been well studied, mainly because of the very fine state of the records. This paper seeks to contribute to general issues in emigration by considering data from a limited but important area, the province of Zeeland in The Netherlands, which was one of the principal contributors to Dutch emigration to North America during the nineteenth century. The subject-matter is the motivation of those emigrants, and the analysis concentrates on factors in the place of origin. ‘Pull-factors’ that attract emigrants to their destinations are acknowledged to be important, but are not studied here; a wide range of social, economic, and political variables in Zeeland are computed. Two sets of factors are found to govern the ‘push’ : the first are deprivation factors, such as epidemics, bad harvests, poverty, and persecution. At the same time, it is posited that many emigrants left for precisely the opposite reason : that things were going well in the home country. Besides revealing something of the migration process itself, this approach has the advantage of increasing our understanding of the country of origin or ‘push-area’, where other sources may be incomplete or ambiguous.     

浅析三峡库区移民过渡期的贫困问题

库区移民存在着历史性贫困。在搬迁后一段时间又面临着经济、文化、精神等新的贫困。贫困问题严重制约着移民的搬迁安置 ,从而影响国家的移民大业和库区经济的长远建设。经济上的补偿与扶持、区域文化的异地构建、精神心态的素质培育、文化教育手段的运用等都不失为库区移民过渡期贫困的解决良策。     

Cuba: the demography of revolution

Cuba's post-revolution demographic trends, especially in regard to fertility and emigration, and the causes and consequences of these trends, were examined using available statistical data. The authors maintain that both fertility and emigration trends were highly infuenced by economic factors. The trends are described in the context of the social and economic changes instituted by the revolutionary government. Government policies were aimed at 1) eradicating inequalities in housing, income, education, and health; 2) improving the status of women; and 3) upgrading the living standards of the rural population. Government policies did alleviate many social problems and greatly improved the health and educational status of the population; however, these policies had a marked adverse effect on economic performance. The demographic transition began in Cuba earlier than in most other developing countries and it began long before the 1959 revolution. These earlier changes must be taken into account when assessing the impact of post-revolution policies on demographic trends. Cuba's birthrate declined from 26-14.8/1000 population between 1959-1979 and the total fertility rate declined from 3.7-1.9 between 1970-1978; however, during the 1960s there was a baby boom and the birth rate for 1963 exceeded 35/1000 population. The baby boom was largely a response to the temporary improvement in economic conditions which occurred shortly after the revolution. The decline in fertility during the 1970s was due in part to the increased availability of abortion and contraceptive services and to a decline in the marriage rate; however, Cuba's deteriorating economy was also a major contributing factor. The baby boom of the 1960s is negativley affecting the current economy of the country. Individuals born during the baby boom are entering adulthood and are contributing toward Cuba's current unemployment problems. Prior to the revolution, Cuba experienced a high rate of in-migration. Immediately after the revolution this pattern was reversed and between 1959-1980 more than 800,000 Cubans emigrated. Most of these emigrants went to the U.S. A large proportion of the earlier emigrants were members of the upper and middle socioeconomic classes. Recent emigrants were more evenly representative of all segments of Cuba's population. The socioeconomic characteristics of the emigrants are described and their adjustment in the U.S. is discussed. Tables provide statistical data on Cuba's demographic trends.     

Individual and Community Aspects of Women's Status and Fertility in Rural Bangladesh

Samples from the U.S. passenger lists are used to focus upon the emigrants from England to the U.S.A. during 1841. Probably as many as three-quarters of the English emigrants of that year made the U.S.A. their destination, though only a minority of Irish and Scottish emigrants sailed directly to U.S. ports. The English appear very largely to have spurned the unusual opportunities for assisted emigration to colonies that were available that year. The occupations of male emigrants are compared with occupations reported in the population census of 1841. Farmers, general labourers, and industrial workers, particularly those employed in textile industries, were overrepresented among the emigrants. Yet the movement was not predominantly an exodus of labourers from agriculture, nor from some of the most depressed occupations such as framework knitters and nailers. Various occupational groups are analyzed according to travelling companions, dependants and age, in an effort to distinguish between the more cycle-sensitive groups and those seemingly intent on permanent emigration.     

Emigration from the USA: Multiplicity survey evidence

Special national surveys in the 1980s give the only recent data about emigrants from the USA, based on asking residents about their parents, siblings, and children living outside the USA who ever lived here. Each of the three surveys yielded an initial or minimal estimate of at least one million surviving emigrants. Adjusting for probable omission of emigrants without a resident immediate relative, the number of emigrants surviving as of 1990 is likely to exceed two million and, with alternative assumptions, could exceed three million. Due to inherent uncertainties in differing methodologies for measuring emigration for the past three decades, the implied level of emigration of permanent residents for the 1980s may be similar to previous levels. This finding contradicts popular belief of a simple direct association, i.e., that increasing immigration levels would be associated with increasing emigration levels. Emigration levels result from population heterogeneity on such characteristics as origin country, location and strength of familial ties, and reasons for coming to the USA, and associated probabilities of emigration. For many of the post-1965 immigrant cohorts, there is one or more decades during which emigration may yet occur.Abbreviations ALAs Americans living abroad - INS US Immigration and Naturalization Service - IRCA Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 - CPS Current Population Survey This article is partially based on a paper presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Population Association of America in Toronto, Canada, while the author was a member of the Population Analysis Staff of the US Bureau of the Census.     

Redefining the Nation through Economic Growth and Migration: Changing Rationalities of Governance in the Republic of Ireland?

In an increasingly mobile world, territorially bounded notions of the nation are being rethought, but so are the rationalities of governing mobility and migration. Emigration has become a target of governance in new ways in recent years in the Republic of Ireland with specific implications of the governance of contemporary immigration. This article discusses how emigration has constituted the national ‘we’ in the past and present in order to show how familiar, if changing, relationships between emigration and the Irish nation are now being unsettled through the more contradictory juxtaposition of emigrants, immigrants and the national. The article questions the political potential of this destabilisation of national belonging in the context of neo‐liberal rationalities of governance at a distance, and argues that the interplay of pastoral and economic rationalities of migration governance offers Irish nationals continued economic prosperity without being disturbed by the proximity of the unfamiliar.     

European migration potential and prospects

Since the end of the war much discussion has taken place on the problem of emigration overseas. In this paper the author examines the potential number of emigrants from different parts of Europe, as well as the obstacles to emigration and immigration which they would have to overcome in order to realize their ambition. The general conclusion is reached that a resumption of migration on the nineteenth-century scale is extremely unlikely and that many of the public statements that have recently been made on the subject do not take full account of the facts.     

粤闽浙三省新移民身份特征的比较分析

根据侨情调查和人口普查资料,通过对粤、闽、浙三省新移民出国时身份特征的比较发现．就粤、闽、浙三省新移民的自然属性来说,粤籍新移民年龄层次的多元化特点明显,性别比例平衡：浙籍新移民的年龄较集中在青壮年,但也呈现多元化的趋向,性别比例不大平衡：而闽籍新移民青壮年比例最高,性别比例失衡。就粤、闽、浙三省新移民的社会属性来说,粤籍新移民文化程度最高,浙籍次之,闽籍最低;三省新移民的职业身份都以农民、工人为主,但广东、浙江新移民职业结构的多元化特征明显,而福建新移民的职业层次相对较低。造成粤、闽、浙三省新移民身份特征的差异主要是三省侨乡不同的社会经济背景和移民传统、新移民迁移的不同途径以及目标国的移民政策。     

A survey of Indian immigration to British tropical colonies to 1910

After the abolition of slavery in British colonies in 1834, many thousand labourers left India under indenture for employment on colonial plantations. Their efforts resulted in a striking rise in exports of plantation products. At the end of their indenture, many Indians decided to settle in their new home, especially in British Guiana, Trinidad, Mauritius and Fiji.

The paper discusses the districts in India from which labourers were recruited ; the conditions of service under the indenture system, and its advantages and abuses. It discusses the opportunities open to the Indian labourer at the end of his indenture, and the facilities which the government or the planters provided for his settlement on the land. Those who did not settle on the land turned to the professions or trades, often with success.

The paper discusses the attitude of the “communities of reception” to the Indian during and after indenture, and his adjustment to a multi-racial society. It analyses his change in outlook as a result of emigration, the increase in his ambition and initiative, and his transition from submissiveness to independence.     

Intention to emigrate in transition countries: the case of Albania

We analyse the profile of potential emigrants from Albania using data from the Central and Eastern Europe Eurobarometer in 1992. Respondents were asked to rate on a four-point scale the likelihood that they would go to live in Western Europe. Our results show that intention to emigrate is correlated positively with males, education and certain occupations, and negatively with age. There is little relation between emigration and income. Those who support the introduction of a free market in Albania are also more likely to emigrate than those who do not. Received: 24 August 1998/Accepted: 17 April 2000     

Emigration from Canada in the 1960s

Summary Emigration from Canada can be assessed only by indirect means. Here, survival ratios have been applied to the total population enumerated in the 1961 Census and to particular segments of it, so that a comparison of the calculated numbers in 1971 with the population actually enumerated indicates the volume of emigration during the decade, both in the whole population and in certain groups. Amounting to two-thirds of the number of immigrants during the same period, the estimate for the ten years is exactly double the volume of emigration reported to the Joint Parliamentary Committee on immigration policy of 1975. Since 1971, the level of emigration has probably fallen. Of the 960,000 emigrants during the decade, 42 per cent were Canadian-born. Their favourite destination was the United States; immigrants, on the other hand, tended to return home. Many immigrants now stay in Canada for only a few years. Fewer Canadians emigrate to the United States. These two factors have contributed to a new pattern of emigration, up-to-date details of which will not be ascertained before the Census of 1981.     

A family affair: Evidence of chain migration during the mass emigration from the county of Halland in Sweden to the United States in the 1890s

This paper examines the influence of individual and household factors on an individual’s propensity to emigrate from Halland, a region in south-west Sweden, to the United States during the era of mass migration in the late nineteenth century. The study has a case–control design, using individual-level longitudinal data for a group of emigrants (cases) and a group of non-emigrants (controls). Results indicate the importance of a family’s emigration history; individuals whose relatives had previously moved to the United States were more likely to emigrate themselves. In addition, the results also show how this impact varied between groups and how other factors relating to the individual’s life situation affected the migration decision. Thus, this paper shows how chain migration and migration networks play important roles during times of mass migration.     

Foreign-born emigration: A new approach and estimates based on matched CPS files

The utility of postcensal population estimates depends on the adequate measurement of four major components of demographic change: fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration. Of the four components, emigration, especially of the foreign-born, has proved the most difficult to gauge. Without "direct" methods (i.e., methods identifying who emigrates and when), demographers have relied on indirect approaches, such as residual methods. Residual estimates, however are sensitive to inaccuracies in their constituent parts and are particularly ill-suited for measuring the emigration of recent arrivals. Here we introduce a new method for estimating foreign-born emigration that takes advantage of the sample design of the Current Population Survey (CPS): repeated interviews of persons in the same housing units over a period of 16 months. Individuals appearing in a first March Supplement to the CPS but not the next include those who died in the intervening year, those who moved within the country, and those who emigrated. We use statistical methods to estimate the proportion of emigrants among those not present in the follow-up interview. Our method produces emigration estimates that are comparable to those from residual methods in the case of longer-term residents (immigrants who arrived more than 10 years ago), but yields higher--and what appear to be more accurate--estimates for recent arrivals. Although somewhat constrained by sample size, we also generate estimates by age, sex, region of birth, and duration of residence in the United States.     

Migration as a means of population control

Abstract The more crowded West Indian islands lose citizens each year through emigration, and they are small enough for an appreciable relief of population pressure to be thereby afforded. Each year some of the inhabitants of Java move to Sumatra and elsewhere under official sponsorship, part of the rationale for the policy being the relief of population pressure; a recent definitive study covers the movement in detail.     

Australia Farewell: Predictors of Emigration in the 2000s

The factors leading individuals to immigrate to developed contexts are widely studied, but comparatively less is known about those who emigrate from them. In this paper, we use data from a nationally representative cohort of Australian adults to develop longitudinal measures of emigration and to assess how social ties and individual economic position predict emigration. Cox proportional hazards models indicate that the propensity to emigrate is particularly pronounced for those with relatively little social connectedness in Australia. Specifically, our results show that first-generation Australians, especially those with relatively short durations in the country, have substantially higher emigration rates than later-generation Australians. Similarly, having a partner with deeper generational roots in Australia strongly reduces the likelihood to emigrate. At the same time, our analysis also shows that economic position matters, with the not employed having higher risks of emigration. Perhaps most interestingly, estimates from our models reveal that those with university degrees are much more likely to emigrate than individuals with lower levels of education, a finding that is true for both first- and later-generation Australians.     

世界人口移民新态势

20世纪中叶以来 ,世界人口移民逐渐发生变化。发展中国家移民人数明显增加 ,其中越境难民和非法入境者占主流 ,知识型移民逐年提高。而经济发达国家的澳大利亚和德国人口外迁移民也令人关注。典型的移民国家以色列仍在吸引世界各地的犹太人回到自己的祖国     

Fijians and Indians in Fiji

Fiji is peculiar in having within its population a component population of immigrant origin which has remained ethnically distinct from all other groups and which, in recent years, has become numerically predominant in the population. The other major component is the indigenous Fijian population and between them Fijians and Indians constituted more than 92% of the total population enumerated in the 1956 census. The Indian component is increasing more rapidly than is the Fijian and the factors contributing to these differential rates of increase have been analysed and are presented in this paper. The changes which have occurred over the last ten years in the patterns of mortality and fertility in each group are examined, and the likelihood of further changes are discussed in relation to the economic implications of the present age structure of the populations.     

Some social characteristics of Indian immigrants to British Guiana

An analysis of the characteristics of a sample of East Indian indentured immigrants who entered British Guiana between 1865 and 1917 shows that the age, sex and caste characteristics of the immigrants are similar to those of East Indian migrants to other British colonies such as Fiji. The majority of the immigrants were Hindus belonging to the agricultural castes and on the basis of an analysis of recorded places of birth it is shown that approximately 85% of all immigrants originated in the United Provinces and Bihar.     

Stymied ambition: does a lack of economic freedom lead to migration?

We investigate the relationship between economic freedom and international migration for the 1980–2010 period using a dataset on migration from 91 emerging countries to the 20 most attractive OECD destination countries. We find that more economic freedom at home discourages high-skilled migration, but not low-skilled migration. The negative association between economic freedom and high-skilled emigration also holds when we estimate (dynamic) panel models that allow for endogeneity in the economic freedom-migration nexus. In sum, our findings suggest that high-skilled migration is especially responsive to the economic incentives resulting from economic freedom.