A proposed explanation of the fertility gap differentials by socio-economic status and modernity: The case of Egypt

Abstract The present paper is part of a larger analysis of data collected in the summer of 1970 in the city of Cairo. 1 A joint study between the Institute of Statistical Studies and Research and Centre for Sociological Studies, Cairo. The present analysis is based on a sub-sample of 569 households.     

The effect of female education on fertility: A simple explanation

This paper investigates the structure of the relationship between female education and fertility. It is based on data published in First Country Reports of the World Fertility Surveys for eleven countries—Costa Rica, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Panama, Fiji, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Indonesia. The cumulative marital fertility of educated women is shown to be similar in different settings. A lack of uniformity in the education and fertility relationship including the curvilinear nature of this relationship observed across countries is shown to be attributable to marked differences between countries in the average fertility of women with no education rather than to the presumed differences in the average fertility of the educated women. The structure of the relationship is shown to be similar across several developing countries. This analysis suggests that advancement in female education can be expected to influence fertility behavior even without simultaneous changes in other factors such as increasing opportunity for participation in the paid labor force in the modem sector.     

A suggested framework for analysis of urban-rural fertility differentials with an illustration of the Tanzanian case

This paper offers a framework for analyzing how individual characteristics and urban or rural "place" factors interact to influence fertility decisions. The framework builds on the Davis-Blake model and additionally shows how place or community variables influence exposure to intercourse, conception, and birth, either with or without a conscious decisionmaking process. The framework emphasizes the way person and place related factors combine to determine a woman's perception of her life options before bearing any children, as well as how changes in these factors may affect subsequent child decisions. The framework is briefly illustrated by the Tanzanian case. The analysis highlights urban-based considerations, such as education-wage differentials, which may influence the rural couple's decisions. A comparison of two rural cohorts shows that specific community variables such as cultural attitudes, accessibility, general educational levels, and child mortality mediate the influence of these urban-based phenomena.Research for this project was completed while the author was affiliated with GETEMPO, Washington, D.C., under contract to the Office of Urban Development, U.S. Agency for International Development. The author gratefully acknowledges the comments and assistance of Ann C. Orr, James E. Kocher, Paula E. Hollerbach, and two anonymous referees. Requests for reprints should be directed to Sally Evans Findley, Minnesota State Planning Agency, Room 101 Capitol Square Building, 550 Cedar Street, St. Paul, Minnesota 55101.     

The price of children and socio-economic theories of fertility

Abstract Demographers have for some time suggested that the cost of children has an important bearing on couples' fertility decisions. Dublin and Lotka, for example, voiced the opinion that 'it is undoubtedly the anticipation of greatly increased expenditures, the sudden demands made on the family exchequer when a child is born and for some time after, that causes people of limited income to restrict the size of their families'. Banks, Myrdal, and Day and Day have echoed this same theme.     

Womens education and diffusion of the fertility transition: The case of Egypt 1960–1996 in 4905 administrative subdivisions

Egypt comprises thousands of small geographic units. Total fertility rates are reconstructed for the 4905qism, qarya, medina, markaz andshiyakhat covering non-desert Egypt at the 1960, 1976, 1986 and 1996 censuses. This fine spatial scale reveals that heterogeneity across subdivisions increased during the fertility transition, illustrating the rapidity of change. Spatial patterns appear in the fertility upsurge of 1974–85, which is accompanied by a large but temporary reduction in heterogeneity. Fertility varies greatly between subdivisions and geographic differentials underlie the expected and observed association between fertility, literacy, family transfers and industrialization. Cairo led the decline of fertility, but that decline is counterbalanced by rapid economic growth and persistently high levels of illiteracy. A similar pattern of fertility change is observed for the chief city of the Muhafaza and its surrounding area. Egypt presents an archetype of demographic transition as improved economic and educational status diffuses across the country, moderated by its specific geography.     

The economic explanation of fertility changes in the United States

Abstract It is widely assumed that fertility varies positively with economic conditions. Actually this assumption receives little support from the historical record. For a century before 1930 fertility declined while the economy expanded and real incomes rose. Then for nearly three decades fertility and incomes fell and rose together. Since 1960 they have again moved in opposite directions. Clearly, no simple generalization about their relation will hold water. More sophisticated explanations are based on relative rather than absolute incomes. Banks suggested that the downturn in English fertility in the 1870's might have occurred because standards of middle-class consumption rose faster than middle-class incomes, but he found the evidence inconclusive. To reconcile the post-war baby boom in the United States with earlier experience, Easterlin has argued that fertility is determined by the relationship between the income of couples in their twenties and the income of their parents ten to fifteen years earlier. Among the weaknesses of this theory as applied to U.S. experience are its failure to explain the sharp drop in fertility, including that of native white urban women, in the 1920's; the fact that fertility rose most in the baby boom at the higher socio-economic levels where incomes rose least; and the sharp decline of fertility after 1962 in spite of the favourable trend of incomes, including those of younger people. The broad conclusion is that while couples no doubt do consider income, employment opportunities, etc. in deciding how many children to have, such considerations have had a relatively minor influence on changes in fertility, which for the most part have been the result of changes in attitudes. Even the post-war baby boom was a result not only of higher incomes and full employment but also of a shift in attitudes toward family size, particularly among the better-educated, economically better-off sections of society.     

Fertility exposure analysis: A new method for assessing the contribution of proximate determinants to fertility differentials

Summary Several recent papers have dealt with the problem of assessing the impact of the proximate determinants on fertility. All these approaches rely on combining a series of separately estimated aggregate level indicators. This paper proposes an approach which uses individual-level data and thus permits regression analyses as well as analyses for sub-groups. In the course of development it became clear that there are several deficiencies and inconsistencies in the measurement and formation of indices proposed elsewhere, which are overcome. We illustrate our approach with data from the Dominican Republic. The approach used involves attributing exposure to one or more of several states, including pregnancy, lactational and non-lactational components of post-partum amenorrhoea, absence of sexual relations and contraception. Key elements are efficacies of contraception and components of post-partum infecundity and the treatment of overlaps through an explicit hierarchy. We treat both unconditional (or additive) and conditional analyses. Intriguing findings on the age-specific pattern of fertility control emerge. Major advantages of regression analysis, such as simultaneous treatment of several variables and estimation of sampling variation are stressed.     

The role of smoking in the explanation of the Israeli Jewish pattern of sex differentials in mortality

The difference in life expectancy between women and men among Israeli Jews is very low relative to the difference in other developed countries, and the reasons for this are not fully understood. This paper explores the contribution of smoking to the observed patterns of sex-specific mortality among Israeli Jews, and to the sex difference in mortality exhibited by this population. The results show that the mortality of Israeli Jewish men is low owing to the relatively weak impact of smoking-related mortality, and that this also contributes to an explanation of the small sex difference. The result is explained by the high level of health-protective behaviour of Israeli Jewish men, including a low intensity of smoking (though not a low prevalence). The findings could have implications for some debates on the determinants of divergences and convergences in mortality, and research into the relationship between mortality and the Mediterranean diet.     

Husband,sons and the fertility gap: evidence from India

Journal of Population Research - A fertility gap—the difference between a woman’s ideal number of children and her actual number of children—is prevalent in both directions. We...     

Emigration and fertility decline: The case of Barbados

This paper examines the role of emigration in the recent fertility declines which have occurred on the island of Barbados. Barbados with a history of over two centuries of out-migration has experienced in the period 1951–1970 very significant migration loss. In the period 1960–1970 and up to the present fertility has been declining. An important question is what part has this net migration loss of 32,600 had on the reduction of the crude birth rate from 33.6 in 1960 or from 31.5 in 1956 to 20.5 in 1970? Using officially published net migration loss figures and supplementing them with data on Barbadians living overseas, we calculated the crude birth rates which would have occurred had there been no migration loss. We also calculated the numbers of births to be expected if certain age-specific fertility rates were maintained and compared these with the births to residents plus the calculated births to Barbadians overseas. We conclude that in both cases emigration is a very significant contributor to the fertility declines which have occurred and are still underway.     

Monitoring the education gap in Thailand: trends and differentials in lower and upper secondary schooling

"Using 1980 census and 1987 survey data on birth cohorts to examine recent primary and secondary school enrollment trends [in Thailand], this study reports that primary enrollment is nearly universal but secondary enrollment is much less prevalent. The study assesses several factors thought to influence enrollment and finds that urban residence, parents' completion of primary school, the mother's positive attitude toward education, and the family's being comfortable economically to be associated with children's enrollment in secondary school. It also indicates that, for moderately well-off families, proximity to schools has a major influence on secondary school attendance. For the wealthiest families, however, distance is not a hindrance to attendance, and for the poorest families, having a school nearby is not sufficient to ensure attendance."     

Some remarks on the paper by A. Okore, 'Rural-urban fertility differentials in Southern Nigeria: An assessment of some available evidence'

Abstract In his paper Okore(1) critically examines the view of Olusanya and Ekanem that, partly because of shorter periods of breastfeeding and abstinence associated with 'modernization', urban fertility exceeds rural. Unfortunately, the proponents of this view have produced very few hard data on durations of breast-feeding and abstinence.(2).     

The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility

This paper examines the impact of parental economic status and family size on the actual and expected fertility of adult children using longitudinal data from two generations of families participating in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. There was a modest positive relationship between first generation family size and second generation fertility. More importantly, the ideal family size of the parental family was more closely related to fertility behavior and plans in the second generation than was actual parental family size. In addition, the data revealed the hypothesized negative correlation between parental financial status and second generation fertility behavior and plans. Several mechanisms which could produce the correlation between parental characteristics and the fertility of their children are explored.The analysis reported in this paper was supported by Contract NO1-HD-42856 from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research. Dr. Thornton is affiliated with the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Requests for reprints should be directed to him.     

Displaced and segregated: The socio-economic status of the second generation of internally displaced Palestinians in Israel

This study investigates the effects of displacement on the socio-economic status of second-generation Palestinian internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Israel. The results show that members of this group do not differ from non-displaced Palestinians in their educational or occupational attainment, but that displaced households experience higher rates of poverty and poorer housing conditions than non-displaced households. I find that the relationship between displacement and the prime indicators of social mobility—education and jobs—was weakened by three factors: extreme spatial segregation between Palestinians and Jews, the concentration of disadvantage among Palestinian IDPs within the host communities, which were Palestinian spaces, and a high level of dependence on resources concentrated in Jewish spaces among all Palestinians, not just IDPs. These three conditions, however, do not eliminate gaps in assets and land ownership between IDPs and non-displaced Palestinians, which, I argue, contribute to higher poverty rates among displaced households.     

Industrialization,family and fertility: A structural-psychological analysis of the Brazilian case

This paper addresses itself to some linkages between macro-social structure (industrialization, social class), social psychological variables (husband-wife decision making), psychological variables (attitudes), and fertility. A total of 726 currently mated women with proven fertility in five Brazilian communities were interviewed to determine various attitudes, their work experience, their participation in family decisions, their fertility ideals, and actual fertility. The five communities were selected along a rural-urban-industrialization continuum to include a village, two non-industrial cities, and two industrial cities (one of which was Sao Paulo). Family size in the industrial cities was small in all social strata, while in the non-industrial cities family size was large in the lower strata and declined in the upper strata. Further analysis revealed that smaller family size is associated with generally higher levels of status among women—higher educational levels, greater social contacts and more skilled employment, and equality in family decision making. Our analysis supports the hypotheses that industrialization influences fertility through shifts in the social status of women, both in their work and at home. New education and work opportunities facilitate the emergence of modern conceptions of the role of women in society and egalitarian decision making in the family. These attitudes and patterns of husband-wife interaction are related to smaller family size ideals and lower fertility.     

The patterns and causes of fertility differentials in the Sudan (with reference to nomadic and settled populations)

Abstract A demographic survey was undertaken in the Sudan for the purpose of studying fertility differentials between the nomadic and settled populations. In a previous publication the magnitude of these differentials was examined. The present paper examines the nature of the differentials and possible causes are then assessed. These causes are divided into two categories: those arising from the differential marriage patterns and those which are broadly termed 'medical and physiological'. Under the former heading it was found that larger proportions of nomadic women were still single, while those who had married had tended to do so at later ages, more had experienced broken marriages, and more were in polygamous marriages. Under the latter heading it was found that the nomadic women had experienced higher rates of pregnancy loss, appeared to show a high incidence of venereal disease and malaria, and tended to breast-feed their children for periods two to three times as long as the women in agricultural communities. Nutritional standards among the nomads were also substantially lower, and may well have affected fecundity.     

A socioeconomic analysis of the determinants of fertility: the case of Vietnam

This paper is an economics-based quantitative analysis of the determinants of individual fertility in Vietnam, measured as the number of children ever born. In addition to the conventional linear model, two limited dependent variable models, Poisson and ordered-logit, are estimated using data from the 1988 Vietnam Demographic and Health Survery. We find, among other things, that husbands‘ characteristics are almost as important as those of wives in determining fertility, perhaps a reflection of the still dominant role of husbands in Vietnamese families. Both paternal and maternal education have important impacts on fertility. Of special interest is the evidence that supports the attitudinal effect of education over the opportunity-cost effect. Received April 22, 1996 / Accepted January 13, 1997