Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana

Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population–environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate-related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana’s forest-savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate-related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio-demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate-related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.     

Temporary Migrants in Shanghai Households, 1984

In China, temporary migration is defined as a change in place of residence without a concomitant change in household registration; such mobility therefore encompasses a more heterogeneous set of movements than is usually subsumed under this heading in other nations. Because of China's strict control of permanent migration to large cities, temporary migration has become an important strategy for adjusting to economic changes and to effecting family reunification. The Shanghai Temporary Migration Survey of 1984 focused on one segment of temporary migrants, the 58% living in the households of permanent residents. Multinomial logistic regression suggests the heightened probability that close relatives of the household heads come to Shanghai to visit or to live, and nonrelatives to work. Regression on current and expected duration shows that many intended to stay for a year or more, some for up to 20 years. Their presence in the city places added strains on infrastructure and raises questions about the continued efficacy of China's migration policies.     

中国流动人口带眷系数及其影响因素

中国流动人口家庭由于空间分隔,家庭成员居住生活在不同地域,其家庭结构不同于通常家庭的结构。基于对流动人口家庭结构划分、迁移人员及其序次的分析,本文使用2010年下半年全国流动人口动态监测数据,界定了流动人口家庭化迁移的带眷系数概念及其表现形式,分析了劳动年龄流动人口的人口学因素、流动居住因素、在居住地的收入消费等因素对流动人口带眷系数的影响,总结得出促进和阻碍流动人口合理流动的一些主要因素。     

Migration intentions and behavior: Decision making in a rural Philippine province

The relationship between intentions and behavior is basic to micro-level migration decision research. This study, set in the rural Philippine province of Ilocos Norte, provides evidence on personal and structural background factors and value-expectancy perceptions of place utility that predict migration intentions and behavior. Separate analyses are conducted for general intentions to move and for destination-specific migration intentions, the latter pertaining to both internal migration (Manila) and international migration (Hawaii). Logistic regression analyses applied to the data from a 1980–82 longitudinal survey show that the empirical models are highly efficient in explaining migration intentions but less efficient in explaining actual migration behavior in this Third World setting. Important explanatory variables for both intentions and behavior include family pressure to move or stay, family auspices at alternative destinations, money to move, prior migration experience, and the life cycle stage (marital status and age). However, the determinants of internal and international migration behavior are not the same. The data only partially support the Ajzen and Fishbein (1980) position that intentions are the dominant determinant of behavior. Personal and structural background factors are shown to exert independent direct effects on migration behavior.Revised version of a paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, Minneapolis, Minnesota, May 2–5, 1984. Research for this paper was supported by NIH Grant No. R01-HD13115, the Population Center Foundation, The Philippines, the East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii, and the Population Issues Research Center, University Park, PA. The other coinvestigators for this project are Fred Arnold, East-West Population Institute, and Benjamin V. Carino, University of the Philippines.     

Family Migration in a Developing Country

A family model of migration is developed and empirically tested by using longitudinal data for respondents living in Ilocos Norte Province, Philippines. Based on the framework of a family-migration system, family migration is assumed to depend on the character of linkage to the migration system, family household structure, socio-economic resources, family pressure to migrate, family/kin ties to place of origin, and previous mobility experience of family members. Family-migration behaviour is specified as migration of some (one or more) family members, or of the entire family. The findings support the importance of linkage to a family-migration system by way of remittances and the previous mobility experience of family members in the prediction of both types of family migration. Migration of some family members is also predicted by fewer parcels of land owned, higher levels of education, larger household size, and an early life-course stage. Family pressure to migrate, indicating the interactional context of the family, is important for the migration of entire families. It is concluded that the framework used and results presented help explain how migration becomes an institutionalized reality of family life in many developing countries.     

Postmarital Living Arrangements in Historically Patrilocal Settings: Integrating Household Fission and Migration Perspectives

This study integrates theory and research on household fission (or partition) and migration to better understand living arrangements following marriage, especially in historically patrilocal and primarily agricultural settings. Using panel data from the Chitwan Valley Family Study to analyze the sequential decision-making process that influences men’s living arrangements subsequent to first marriage, we demonstrate the importance of distinguishing among extended family living, temporary migration, and the establishment of an independent household. We find that community economic characteristics, such as access to markets or employment, as well as household wealth affect the initial decision to leave the natal home. Household resources and use of farmland, along with the young men’s own education, media exposure, travel, and marital behavior, influence the decision to make the departure from the natal home permanent. Our findings explain why previous results regarding household fission and those focused on migration have provided such mixed results, and we establish a new framework for thinking about how families and individuals manage living situations.     

Recent studies on place-utility and intention to migrate: An international comparison

Findings from five recent studies carried out in different cultural and social-economic contexts (Egypt, Kenya, Philippines, Thailand, and U.S.A.) show significant support for certain features of a "placeutility/migration intentions" model of migration decisions. These findings also suggest that there may be substantial variation in the migration decision process from one setting to another, and that the behavioral models which have been generally used to advance hypotheses in this field need to be revised to take into account empirical findings.Subjective assessments of place-utility are at best partial predictors of actual migration, as measured in follow-up surveys in four of the five studies. Intentions to move are strong predictors of subsequent migration in some settings but weak predictors in others. The findings point to the need to give greater weight to personal and structural constraints on migration (financial resources, help from friends, etc.) which, in the decision making process, may override place-utility consideration in the determination of intentions and actual migration decisions. Overall, the five studies add significantly to knowledge on how migration decisions are made in different settings and point to a number of challenging hypotheses and gaps in research design which need to be addressed in future research.This paper constitutes a revised version of my Discussant's Comments for the session on "Migration strategies, migration intentions, and migration decisions," organized by James T. Fawcett at the Population Association of American Annual Meetings, Minneapolis, April 1984. The revisions take into account modifications in the content and authorship of the papers prior to appearing in this issue or elsewhere in final printed form. I am indebted to Jean Turner for her comments on the draft of this paper.     

The effects of migrant remittances on population–environment dynamics in migrant origin areas: international migration, fertility, and consumption in highland Guatemala

International migration impacts origin regions in many ways. As examples, remittances from distant migrants may alter consumption patterns within sending communities, while exposure to different cultural norms may alter other behaviors. This paper combines these insights to offer a unique lens on migration’s environmental impact. From an environmental perspective, we ask the following question: is the likely rise in consumption brought about by remittances counterbalanced by a reduction in fertility in migrant households following exposure to lower fertility cultures? Based on ethnographic case studies in two western highland Guatemalan communities, we argue that the near-term rise in consumption due to remittances is not counterbalanced by rapid decline in migrant household fertility. However, over time, the environmental cost of consumption may be mitigated at the community level through diffusion of contraception and family planning norms yielding lower family size.     

子女随迁是否有助于改善进城农民工的营养摄入?

从"只身外出"到"举家迁徙"的农民工流动趋势转变,子女是否随迁逐渐成为进城农民工家庭面临的重要选择.本文利用"城镇外来务工人员就业和食品需求"调查数据,考察了子女随迁对进城农民工营养摄入量的影响.结果表明:在控制了收入和劳动强度等因素后,与子女未随迁的农民工相比,有子女随迁农民工的热量摄入量显著增加了4.9％,从营养摄...     

贫困地区劳动力迁移、农户收入与贫困的缓解——基于新疆农户面板数据的实证分析

本文基于新疆30个贫困县、3000个农户、2008-2010年的微观面板数据,在控制了家庭规模、劳动力数量等家庭特征变量和粮食播种面积等村庄特征变量的前提下．运用固定效应法与工具变量法分别考察了劳动力迁移规模、迁移方式与迁移区位对家庭收入的影响．并进一步分析了劳动力迁移对贫困的缓解效应。回归结果表明：劳动力迁移规模虽然对农户农业收入有负向影响．但显著提高了农户人均收入与利他性收入：自发性迁移与政府组织性迁移方式均能显著提高农户收入,且自发性迁移的作用更强;省内县外迁移对农户收入的提高最为显著,其次为县内乡外迁移．省外迁移不影响农户收入：劳动力迁移规模提高了中等收入农户的收入水平。但对贫困户的贫困无缓解效应．也不影响富裕户的收入水平。     

Who moves and who stays? Rural out-migration in Nigeria

Data from the nationally representative 1993 Migration and Urbanization Survey of Nigeria are used to simultaneously examine the patterns of rural-rural and rural-urban migration in Nigeria. A multinomial logistic regression model predicts the independent and collective association between individual, household, and regional variables and migration from rural areas to rural and urban destinations. Associations between education, religion and ethnicity and migration propensities exist at the national level. The Kanuri-Shua Arabs are generally non-migrants, the Hausa-Fulani and Yoruba are predominantly rural-rural migrants and the Igbo-Ibibio and Urhobo-Isoko-Edo are predominantly ruralurban migrants. Christians are significantly more mobile than Muslims. While the highly educated are most likely to choose an urban destination, a significant proportion migrate to other rural areas. Concern over population concentration is not supported, as rural migrants move to all regions and to urban and rural areas.     

Different Reasons,Different Results: Implications of Migration by Gender and Family Status

Previous research on migration and gendered career outcomes centers on couples and rarely examines the reason for the move. The implicit assumption is usually that households migrate in response to job opportunities. Based on a two-year panel from the Current Population Survey, this article uses stated reasons for geographic mobility to compare earnings outcomes among job migrants, family migrants, and quality-of-life migrants by gender and family status. We further assess the impact of migration on couples’ internal household economy. The effects of job-related moves that we find are reduced substantially in the fixed-effects models, indicating strong selection effects. Married women who moved for family reasons experience significant and substantial earnings declines. Consistent with conventional models of migration, we find that household earnings and income and gender specialization increase following job migration. Married women who are secondary earners have increased odds of reducing their labor supply following migration for job or family reasons. However, we also find that migrating women who contributed as equals to the household economy before the move are no more likely than nonmigrant women to exit work or to work part-time. Equal breadwinner status may protect women from becoming tied movers.     

Migration psychology: New behavioral models

Migration is a topic that links the interests of population psychologists and environmental psychologists. The past two decades have witnessed important developments in psychologically-oriented studies of migration behavior. New decision making models that incorporate place perceptions and motivational constructs provide a context for the studies of migration intentions and behavior collected in this special issue.     

A cross-national comparison of the impact of family migration on women's employment status

In this paper we consider the effects of family migration on women's employment status, using census microdata from Great Britain and the United States. We test a simple hypothesis that families tend to move long distances in favor of the male's career and that this can have a detrimental effect on women's employment status. Unlike many previous studies of this question, our work emphasizes the importance of identifying couples that have migrated together, rather than simply comparing long-distance (fe)male migrants with nonmigrant (fe)males individually. We demonstrate that women's employment status is harmed by family migration; the results we present are surprisingly consistent for Great Britain and the United States, despite differing economic situations and cultural norms regarding gender and migration. We also demonstrate that studies that fail to identify linked migrant couples are likely to underestimate the negative effects of family migration on women's employment status.     

International Migration and the Education of Children: Evidence from Lima,Peru

The issue of whether emigration has consequences for the education of children who remain behind in the country of origin occupies an increasingly prominent place in the agendas of both scholars and policy makers. The conventional wisdom is that the emigration of family members may benefit children by relaxing budget constraints through remittances that can be used to cover educational expenses. However, the empirical evidence on the overall effect of migration is inconclusive. This is due in part to a substantive emphasis on remittances in the literature, as well as the inability of some studies to deal satisfactorily with the endogeneity of household migration decisions in comparing outcomes across migrant and non-migrant households. Using Peruvian data from the Latin American Migration Project (LAMP), we apply an innovative instrumental variable technique to evaluate the overall effect of migration on educational attainment and schooling disruption among the children of immigrants. In contrast to conventional wisdom, our results suggest that a higher household risk of immigration has deleterious consequences for the education of children who remain behind.     

Rural out-migration and smallholder agriculture in the southern Ecuadorian Andes

This study investigates the consequences of out-migration and migrant remittances for smallholder agriculture in a rural and environmentally marginal study area in the southern Ecuadorian Andes. Migration and remittances have the potential for transformative impacts on agriculture in origin areas of migration due to consequent declines in labor availability and increases in income, but previous studies have primarily found mixed and weak effects. This study provides additional insight by considering the gender and destination of migrants, key factors given gender norms influencing participation in agriculture, and the large gap in remittances sent by internal and international migrants. Building on recent methodological innovations, the study uses original household survey data and multivariate statistical models to examine the consequences of migration and remittances for multiple agricultural outcomes, including maize production, agrodiversity, female participation in agriculture, and the use of land, labor, and chemical inputs. Consistent with previous studies, the results indicate that migration and remittances have mixed and countervailing effects on smallholder agriculture. Specifically, out-migration has lost-labor effects that differ between men and women, and international remittances have investment-promotion effects that result in increased maize production. Together, the results highlight the resilience of smallholder agriculture in the face of dramatic demographic change.     

人口流动家庭化及其影响因素——以北京市为例

文章基于2006年北京市1‰流动人口抽样调查,考察北京市流动人口的家庭模式及其流动家庭化的影响因素。调查结果显示,北京市流动人口的家庭化率已达到60%。流动人口家庭模式是以一对夫妻户和一对夫妻加孩子户为主的核心家庭为主导,以一代户和二代户为主。3/4的已婚流动人口携带了配偶,有孩子的流动人口中有一半携带了孩子,这些孩子中有近20%是在北京出生的。流动人口的平均家庭规模为2人,明显小于全国农村的平均家庭规模(3.4人)。流动人口的个人特征及在京居住地显著影响人口流动家庭化,同时还发现非经济因素成为比经济因素更为重要的人口流动家庭化影响因素。     

大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析

利用2008年四大城市的外来人口问卷调查资料,运用多层次Logit模型分析影响大城市外来人口迁移行为的个体因素和迁入地因素。研究发现,外来人口的迁移行为发生较大的变化,城城迁移所占比重的上升导致性别、婚姻状况以及户口类型等因素对迁移概率的影响并不显著,迁移更多地表现为以家庭为单位;由于外来人口在就业和工资收入上受到不同程度的歧视,加之迁入地产业结构调整升级,就业岗位的增加对外来人口的吸引力有所下降,并且其预期收入水平与城市居民平均收入水平相脱离;城市平均工资增长率的提高对非正规部门劳动力产生了挤出效应,减小了潜在迁移者的迁移概率。     

人口流动与儿童心理健康的异质性

利用中国家庭动态调查（ CFPS）2012年数据,以儿童问卷中心理健康量表的测量结果为因变量,以反事实因果推论框架为基础,利用倾向得分匹配方法和异质性效应模型,探讨了人口流动对儿童心理健康的异质性影响作用。分析结果表明,儿童自身的流动会改善部分儿童的心理健康,但并不适用于全部儿童;越不可能流动的儿童,如果他们流动以后,其心理健康改善的幅度也越大;而父母亲的流动在某种意义上并不会影响留守儿童的心理健康。这些结果反映了人口流动的异质性影响作用。     

家庭迁移决策分析——基于中国农村的证据

本文利用中国健康与营养状况调查数据,以家庭为单位分析了农村劳动力迁移的影响因素。结果表明,有无子女、子女年龄是影响家庭迁移的重要因素。与无子女的家庭相比,有子女家庭中夫妻二人至少一人外出打工的概率会大大降低,且子女年龄越小,影响越大。老人健康因素对一个家庭中夫妻二人是否至少有一人外出打工的影响不大,但家中男性老人健康较差会大大减少已婚子女夫妻共同外出打工的概率。