A study of internal migration in England and Wales : Part I

Abstract Statistics ofpersons classified jointly by county of birth and county ofresidence have been published in the England and Wales census volumes since 1851 and the present study draws mainly on these data. A group of persons recorded in a census as natives of county A and residents of county Bare sometimes referred to as lifetime migrants from county A to county B. Statistics of lifetime migrants have often been used in studies of internal migration but these have one great disadvantage. The number of lifetime migrants from A to B does not relate to a specific period of time. It is impossible, for example, in such studies to consider the association between specific migration streams and differential economic activity. An attempt is made in this study to transform lifetime migration data into intercensal migration streams. Some of the results are presented and the most significant migration patterns during the period 1851-1951 are described.     

The spread of urbanization in England and Wales, 1851-1951

Abstract Each county in England and Wales has been classified as rural or urban for each of the decennial census years 1851-1951. One index has been used as the basis for these classifications, the percentage of adult males occupied in agriculture. Thus, for each census year a value, in term of this index, was fixed as the criterion to determine whether a county was rural or urban in that year. This criterion of classification varies, over time. This is to allow for the reduction in the percentage of adult males occupied in agriculture as a result of structural changes in the occupational distribution (associated with general modernization), rather than through a shift away from agriculture. The geographical patterns of urbanization in England and Wales during the period 1851-1951, and some associated social and economic changes, are discussed in the paper.     

The spread of urbanization in England and Wales, 1851–1951

Each county in England and Wales has been classified as rural or urban for each of the decennial census years 1851–1951. One index has been used as the basis for these classifications, the percentage of adult males occupied in agriculture. Thus, for each census year a value, in term of this index, was fixed as the criterion to determine whether a county was rural or urban in that year. This criterion of classification varies, over time. This is to allow for the reduction in the percentage of adult males occupied in agriculture as a result of structural changes in the occupational distribution (associated with general modernization), rather than through a shift away from agriculture. The geographical patterns of urbanization in England and Wales during the period 1851–1951, and some associated social and economic changes, are discussed in the paper.     

Interrelations between migration and fertility in Thailand

Based on special tabulations of 1960 census data on migration within Thailand, this analysis attempts to assess the role of migration in the urbanization process and the relation between migration and fertility. The importance of migration to urban growth is evidenced by the clearcut positive relationship between the percentage of persons classified as either lifetime or 5-year migrants and the urban character of their 1960 place of residence. Yet, the evidence also points to an increasing proportion of urban growth in recent decades attributable to natural increase. The specific relation between fertility and migration varies depending on the measure of migration used: Compared to nonmigrants in their place of destination, the fertility levels of lifetime migrants are not very different; but those of 5-year migrants are considerably lower. Regardless of migration status, however, fertility level is markedly lower for those living in urban places compared to those in rural places. This suggests the important role of both migration and urbanization in affecting fertility levels in Thailand.     

Bombay migration study: A pilot analysis of migration to an Asian metropolis

This paper reports on a pilot study of migration to Greater Bombay, initiated on the recommendation of the Population Commission of United Nations, and utilizes both published tables from the 1961 Census of India and a set of specially prepared tables from the same census. Migrants were defined by birthplace and cross-classified by age and duration of residence in Bombay.Data (1901-61) on net migration (obtained from successive age-sex distributions) are analyzed in terms of underlying trends to give historical perspective to the analysis of recent data with special emphasis on changes in industrial and occupotiona structure.For the 1951-61 decade, the extensiveness of out-migration of former in-migrants, its age-sex selectivity, and its high incidence among recent migrants are demonstrated. As is true elsewhere, migration to Bombay is shown to be highly selective for ages of maximum economic activity. Migration streams to Bombay were preponderantly male, and, among males, the married segment predominated. The propensity to migrate was unusually high among minority religious groups. As to educational level, migrants were superior to the general population at origin but inferior to nonmigrants residing in Bombay. The work participation rates of migrants were higher for every age group than for resident nonmigrants; the proportion of employees was higher; and there was evidence of migrant concentration in industries and occupations requiring less skill, less education, and less capital than was true of nonmigrants. There were significant tendencies toward "division of labor" among various migration streams on the basis of skills and abilities acquired not only by formal education but also through tradition and precept. From the standpoint of the promotion of social change, the large volume (and selectivity) of reverse or return migration is especially note-worthy.The paper concludes with a methodological evaluation of the reliability and validity of duration-of-residence data and indicates that the relatively simple techniques of enumeration and tabulation utilized in this pilot study may have wide applicability in other developing countries.     

中国人口终身迁移状况分析

“出生地”是用来收集人口迁移信息最常用的调查项目之一。中国以往的人口普查中一直缺少这一调查项目 ,这使得利用出生地资料对人口迁移状况进行分析在国内一直是个空白。中国第五次人口普查在中国人口普查史上首次调查了人口的出生地信息。本文主要根据第五次人口普查提供的出生地资料 ,对中国各省人口的终身迁移水平、流向以及不同年龄人口的终身迁移状况进行了初步分析。     

Immigration and internal migration “flight”: A California case study

Recent analyses of 1990 census migration data have pointed up disparities in the way immigration and internal migration contributions affect an area's demographic profile. They show that there is little overlap between states with large population gains from internal migration from other parts of the United States and states with large population gains from immigration from abroad. This emerging pattern, along with the fact that immigration and internal migration select on very different demographic characteristics, could lead toward a demographic balkanization of the nation's population. This paper evaluates immigration-induced out-movement from California, based on an analysis of recently released migration data from the 1990 U.S. census. The results presented here suggest that California's out-migration consists of two different migration systems: first, an immigration-induced flight that exports lower income and less-educated Californians, primarily, to the nearby states of Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona. And second, a more conventional migration exchange with the rest of the United States that involves the redistribution of better educated, higher income migrants. It is the former migration system which appears to be most responsive to the low-skilled immigration flows, while the latter should be responsive to more conventional labor market employment characteristics. This implies that, irrespective of changing economic conditions in the state, the continued immigration of low-skilled migrants will lead to more losses of native-born internal migrants to neighboring states and metropolitan areas. However, these migrant streams will not be made up of the best and brightest residents that characterize most conventional migration streams.A longer version of this report with more extensive background statistics isResearch Report 94–306 (Frey, 1994b) available from Publications, Population Studies Center, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.     

China's Floating Population: New Evidence from the 2000 Census

This article uses tabulations from the 2000 Population Census of China along with a micro‐level data sample from the census to provide a picture of China's floating population: migrants without local household registration (hukou), a status resulting in significant social and economic disadvantages. By 2000, the size of China's floating population had grown to nearly 79 million, if that category is defined as migrants who moved between provinces or counties and resided at their destinations for six months or more. Intra‐county floating migration is similarly large, contributing another 66 million to the size of the floating population. The article also discusses the geographic pattern of the floating population and the reasons for moving as reported by migrants. Policy implications are noted.     

中国人口迁移与生育率关系研究

本文利用2000年人口普查数据,考察了中国人口迁移与生育率的关系。通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和流动迁移人口三个人口群体在生育率上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,结果表明,流动迁移对生育率有着非常显著影响,城市外来人口的生育率不仅显著低于农村本地人口,而且也低于城市本地人口;远期流迁人口的生育率要低于近期流迁人口的生育率。中国人口迁移与生育率的关系出现了与已有的迁移生育率理论的不一致。1990年代中国的迁移生育率发生了转变。     

The hidden component in census-derived migration data: Assessing its size and distribution

Comparison of Norwegian "linked" decennial census data with statistics compiled from 10 years' migration registrations showed that the amount of movement omitted by census data was considerable. This hidden movement was of a similar order at every administrative level, but only when total movement was considered. There was wide variation between regions, migration directions, and streams. In some cases census data misrepresented the direction of net movement. Available evidence suggests that these patterns are not confined to Norway, raising the possibility that research findings based on census-derived migration data may merely be artifacts of the data.     

A Profile of the World's Young Developing Country International Migrants

Individual‐level census and household survey data are used to present a rich profile of young developing country international migrants around the world. They are found to comprise a large share of the flow of migrants, particularly among migrants to other developing countries, with the age distribution of migrants peaking in the late teens or early twenties. Detailed data are presented on the age and sex composition of migrants, on whether young migrants move alone or with a parent or spouse, on their participation in schooling and work in the destination country, on the types of jobs they have, and on the incidence and age of return migration. The results suggest a high degree of commonality in the youth immigrant experience across a number of destination countries. Recent developing country young migrants tend to work in similar occupations and are more concentrated in these occupations than recent older migrants or young immigrants who arrived at an earlier age. Nevertheless, there is also considerable heterogeneity among young immigrants with respect to school attendance and work in their destination country. The potential of international migration for building human capital is significant but far from being fully used.     

A test and modification of zipf’s hypothesis for predicting interstate migration

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the accuracy of Zipf’s hypothesis in estimating interstate migration streams in the United States, and then to determine whether the predictive power of Zipf’s hypothesis can be improved by adding additional variables. The three independent variables in Zipf’s hypothesis accounted for 57 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams in 1935–1940, 61 percent in 1949–1950, and 68 percent in 1955–1960. The addition of per capita personal income of the states of origin and of destination increased the explained variance by only four percentage points in 1935–1940 and by less than one percentage point in 1949–1950 and 1955–1960. Then, the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis that interstate migration streams in any period are a function of previous flows was tested by adding cumulative lifetime migration as an independent variable. Over 80 percent of the variation in interstate migration streams was explained by cumulative lifetime mobility, as reflected by state of birth data. The conclusion of the study is that the Petersen-Greenwood hypothesis provides a better estimate of interstate migration streams than does Zipf’s hypothesis. Nevertheless, the Petersen Greenwood hypothesis requires further evaluation to determine whether cumulative lifetime mobility is simply a proxy for some other underlying variable and whether it provides accurate estimates of migration streams for other geographic areas.     

Selectivity Of Migrants To A Metropolis In A Developing Country: A Mexican Case Study

A proper evaluation of native-migrant differences requires information on migrant selectivity. Are migrants positively or negatively selective or are they representative of the populations from which they originate? This question was posed for a sample of male migrants to Monterrey, Mexico, a rapidly growing metropolis in a developing country. A comparison was made between the characteristics of migrants and census information for the origin populations for 1940 and 1960. Overall, in terms of education and occupational position, migrants are positively selective. However, using three time-of-arrival cohorts, it is shown that migrants have become less selective over time. There has been a shift from a “pioneer” to a “mass” pattern of migration, with the latter group more closely approximating the characteristics of the origin population. Besides having lower educational and skill levels, the “mass” migrants are more likely to be made up of married men and their families. To the extent that the Monterrey pattern will be encountered in other large and fast-growing urban areas in Latin America, it suggests that the assimilation of migrants in these places will become more rather than less difficult.     

中国的返迁人口:基于五普数据的分析

本文利用我国2000年第五次人口普查的数据,估计返迁人口的规模并描述返迁人口的人口社会特征及其与现在的迁移人口与非迁移常住人口的差异,从个人因素、居住地类型以及家庭户特征三个方面分别讨论了返迁的决定因素。并讨论了本文的一些缺陷及今后的研究方向。     

Effects of migration on the educational levels of the black resident population at the origin and destination, 1955–1960 and 1965–1970

Using the 1960 and 1970 census data, this paper analyzes the net effects of the interregional migration of black males on the educational levels of the resident black male population at the regions of origin and destination. Significant variations are observed in the educational selectivity of out-migrants from each region, by region of destination. Comparing the educational levels of the return migrants to the South with those of the resident population in the nonsouthern regions provides no evidence that the return migrants are "failed" migrants. The net effect of interregional migration on the educational levels of the black male resident population at the regions of origin and destination is insignificant in most age groups, for both the 1955--1960 and 1965--1970 periods. In particular, in-migration from the South to nonsouthern regions has little effect on the educational levels of the resident population in most age groups. In fact, for nonsouthern regions, out-migration is more detrimental to the educational level of the resident black male population than is in-migration from the South. Furthermore, the net effect of interregional migration has declined from the 1955--1960 period to the 1965--1970 period.     

Second-Generation Outcomes of the Great Migration

The mass migration of African Americans out of the South during the first two-thirds of the twentieth century represents one of the most significant internal migration flows in U.S. history. Those undertaking the Great Migration left the South in search of a better life, and their move transformed the cultural, social, and political dynamics of African American life specifically and U.S. society more generally. Recent research offers conflicting evidence regarding the migrants’ success in translating their geographic mobility into economic mobility. Due in part to the lack of a large body of longitudinal data, almost all studies of the Great Migration have focused on the migrants themselves, usually over short periods of their working lives. Using longitudinally linked census data, we take a broader view, investigating the long-term economic and social effects of the Great Migration on the migrants’ children. Our results reveal modest but statistically significant advantages in education, income, and poverty status for the African American children of the Great Migration relative to the children of southerners who remained in the South. In contrast, second-generation white migrants experienced few benefits from migrating relative to southern or northern stayers.     

The Consequences of Migration to the United States for Short-Term Changes in the Health of Mexican Immigrants

Although many studies have attempted to examine the consequences of Mexico-U.S. migration for Mexican immigrants’ health, few have had adequate data to generate the appropriate comparisons. In this article, we use data from two waves of the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS) to compare the health of current migrants from Mexico with those of earlier migrants and nonmigrants. Because the longitudinal data permit us to examine short-term changes in health status subsequent to the baseline survey for current migrants and for Mexican residents, as well as to control for the potential health selectivity of migrants, the results provide a clearer picture of the consequences of immigration for Mexican migrant health than have previous studies. Our findings demonstrate that current migrants are more likely to experience recent changes in health status—both improvements and declines—than either earlier migrants or nonmigrants. The net effect, however, is a decline in health for current migrants: compared with never migrants, the health of current migrants is much more likely to have declined in the year or two since migration and not significantly more likely to have improved. Thus, it appears that the migration process itself and/or the experiences of the immediate post-migration period detrimentally affect Mexican immigrants’ health.     

Urbanization and the fertility transition in Ghana

This paper examines the way in which migration and urban residence operate to alter fertility outcomes. While urban-rural fertility differentials have long been established for most developing societies, the nature of these differences among migrants and between migrants and those of succeeding generations is not well understood. The evidence presented here suggests that rural-urban migration and urbanization may contribute positively to processes of fertility transition. Using data from the 1998 Kumasi Peri-Urban Survey, which included a 5-year retrospective monthly calendar of childbearing, we suggest that migrants adapt quickly to an urban environment. Our results also reveal generational differences in recent and cumulative fertility. While migrants exhibit higher cumulative fertility than urban residents of the second and third generation, their fertility is significantly lower than rural averages in Ghana. Children of migrants exhibit childbearing patterns quite similar to those in higher-order generations. Most noteworthy is the nature of the disparities in childbearing patterns between migrants and the succeeding generations. Migrant women have higher lifetime fertility than urban natives. Migrant women also exhibit higher fertility over the last 5 years than second generation or high-order urban natives. But these first generation women exhibit lower fertility (vs. urban natives) for the year immediately prior to the survey. These patterns lend support to an interpretation that combines rather than opposes theories of selectivity, disruption, adaptation and socialization. We conclude by discussing mechanisms that might explain these interrelated processes of fertility adjustment and suggest that policies discouraging rural-urban migration need to be revisited.     

Increasing Migration,Diverging Communities: Changing Character of Migrant Streams in Rural Thailand

This paper studies how increasing migration changes the character of migrant streams in sending communities. Cumulative causation theory posits that past migration patterns determine future flows, as prior migrants provide resources, influence, or normative pressures that make individuals more likely to migrate. The theory implies exponentially increasing migration flows that are decreasingly selective. Recent research identifies heterogeneity in the cumulative patterns and selectivity of migration in communities. We propose that this heterogeneity may be explained by individuals’ differential access to previously accumulated migration experience. Multi-level, longitudinal data from 22 rural Thai communities allow us to measure the distribution of past experience as a proxy for its accessibility to community members. We find that migration becomes a less-selective process as migration experience accumulates, and migrants become increasingly diverse in socio-demographic characteristics. Yet, selectivity within migrant streams persists if migration experience is not uniformly distributed among, and hence not equally accessible to, all community members. The results confirm that the accumulation and distribution of prior migrants’ experiences distinctly shape future migration flows, and may lead to diverging cumulative patterns in communities over time.