Variations in Natural Fertility: The Effect of Lactation and Other Determinants

The analysis focuses on average waiting times to a fertile conception, as derived from non-contraceptive exposure in second and higher-order birth intervals. Life-table estimates are derived from exposure in the two-year periods preceding the survey, for 20 surveys in Africa, Asia and Latin America undertaken as part of the WFS programme. Differences in the waiting time to conception are examined as a function of the duration of lactation and post partum abstinence. In addition, the extent to which variations in waiting times are produced by country and regional effects, and effects due to age, duration of marriage and parity are examined. The analysis points out the dangers of deriving estimates of natural fertility from the sub-group of women who never breastfed.     

The Determinants of Low Fertility in India

Using a conceptual framework focusing on factors that enhance or reduce fertility relative to desired family size (see Bongaarts 2001), we study fertility variation across time (1992–2006) and space (states) in India. Our empirical analyses use data from three waves of the Indian National Family Health Surveys. We find that this framework can account for a substantial portion of the variation in the total fertility rate (TFR) over time and across states. Our estimates focus attention on the critical components of contemporary Indian fertility, especially desired family size, unwanted fertility, son preference, and fertility postponement.     

中国妇女生育意愿与生育行为的差异及其影响因素

生育行为与生育意愿背离现象广泛存在。在发达国家,普遍的情况是实际生育率大大低于意愿生育率。发展中国家同样出现了生育行为与生育意愿背离的现象,但更多呈现出与发达国家相反的规律。中国也出现了生育行为与生育意愿背离,且实际高于意愿的情况。根据中国2001年全国生殖健康调查,基本完成生育的40~49岁妇女,其平均理想子女数为1.8,而平均实际生育子女数为2.2。利用2001年全国生殖健康调查数据,考察中国妇女生育行为与生育意愿背离的特征和影响因素,并考察个体背景(个人特征和社会经济背景)、生育政策和生育孩子情况(包括孩子的性别结构和存活状况)对生育意愿与生育行为的差异产生的影响。结果表明,这些因素都对生育意愿与生育行为的差异产生显著影响,但性别偏好是造成生育行为大于生育意愿的主要因素。     

Determinants Of Cumulative Fertility In Ghana

The relatively few studies conducted on fertility differentials in Ghana have not controlled for the effect of important demographic variables, such as age at first marriage and current age of respondent. This paper attempts a multivariate analysis of the relationship between cumulative fertility and age at first marriage, level of education, religion, form of marriage and residence of husband. Data drawn from a census sample survey in 1971 include 72,816 currently married females aged 15–49 years. Age at first marriage was inversely related to cumulative fertility. The differentials were more pronounced for older women. Among the older women, the differentials were larger for rural than urban women. There were also significant fertility differentials associated with level of education, religion and form of marriage. Husband’s residence was a poor predictor of cumulative fertility. As a policy measure, it is suggested that priority be given to providing young women with more education or employment opportunities as an alternative to early marriage.     

中国生育率转变的因素分析

阐述了中国生育率由传统的高出生率向近代的低出生率转变的原因,利用邦加兹生育率模式和多元回归分析分别对生育率转变的避孕、人工流产等生物人口学因素,以及都市人口比率、计划生育率等社会经济的因素进行了论述。     

中国的低生育水平及其影响因素

中国已经达到低生育水平,但对真实生育率却一直迷茫,人口规划与宣传口径与实际调查统计长期严重脱节.为了推进低生育水平研究,文章综述了低生育率类型的划分口径,并对若干生育率或出生漏报率的估计从方法上做了简要评论.借鉴国外低生育因素模型,文章对中国具体情况的研究发现:推迟生育对总和生育率具有显著压抑作用;而子女性别偏好对生育率的影响方式已经从多生转向性别导向的人工流产,因而也会显著降低生育率.文章还通过示意性测算表明,在低生育率研究中忽视其他抑制因素便会导致夸大出生漏报对生育率的影响.此外,文章还对近年人口流动对流出地和流入地乃至全国生育率的影响进行了分析.     

中国妇女生育率影响因素再研究--伊斯特林模型的实证分析

本文利用１９９７年全国人口与生殖健康调查数据，分析了影响生育率的社会经济因素，并通过伊斯特林模型将社会经济因素、中间变量和生育率相联系，探讨社会经济因素通过中间变量而影响生育率的途径与机制。伊斯特林模型在世界生育率调查的一些国家得到过应用，本文尝试将它应用到中国的数据中。     

The Proximate Determinants of Educational Homogamy: The Effects of First Marriage,Marital Dissolution,Remarriage, and Educational Upgrading

This paper adapts the population balancing equation to develop a framework for studying the proximate determinants of educational homogamy. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth on a cohort of women born between 1957 and 1964, we decompose the odds of homogamy in prevailing marriages into four proximate determinants: (1) first marriages, (2) first and later marital dissolutions, (3) remarriages, and (4) educational attainment after marriage. The odds of homogamy among new first marriages are lower than among prevailing marriages, but not because of selective marital dissolution, remarriage, and educational attainment after marriage, as has been speculated. Prevailing marriages are more likely to be educationally homogamous than new first marriages because of the accumulation of homogamous first marriages in the stock of marriages. First marriages overwhelmingly account for the odds of homogamy in prevailing marriages in this cohort. Marital dissolutions, remarriages, and educational upgrades after marriage have relatively small and offsetting effects. Our results suggest that, despite the high prevalence of divorce, remarriage, and continued schooling after marriage in the United States, the key to understanding trends in educational homogamy lies primarily in variation in assortative mating into first marriage.     

Determinants of Natural Fertility in Rural Bangladesh reconsidered

Recent work by Sandra L. Huffman and her colleagues on the determinants of the length of amenorrhoea in Bangladesh is examined. It is shown that the data on which their work is based are contaminated by an important period effect: the 1974–75 famine in Bangladesh. The famine is described and its possible effects on Huffman's results examined. Huffman argues that breastfeeding behaviour is a more important factor in prolonging amenorrhoea among lactating women than is the mother's nutritional status. It is shown, however, that measures for the key variables used by Huffman - nutritional status, breastfeeding behaviour, and length of amenorrhoea - were all affected by the famine, and that the famine effects may have biased her findings. This does not necessarily mean that her hypothesis is wrong, but does suggest that it must be tested in unbiased data.     

Integrating Theory and Research on the Institutional Determinants of Fertility

This article links recent conceptual theories regarding the determinants of fertility with research designs appropriate for testing those theories. The most important causal factors in these theories--typically social or cultural institutions, occasionally emergent properties of the collective behavior of individuals--are properly conceptualized at the macro level. Research designs must therefore feature variation at this level and are at a minimum comparative. Noncomparative micro-level research designs will be misspecified from the standpoint of theory. A case is also made for continuing to incorporate the observation of individual-level behavior into any comprehensive research design. A focus on macro determinants of fertility does not imply that fertility outcomes are determined at the institutional level. Instead, there remains some process whereby systemic properties are translated into individual behaviors. Recommendations for comparative community-level studies are discussed. The multilevel analysis framework is reviewed as a paradigm for the conceptual features of cross-contextual analysis.     

Determinants of Regional Variations in Infant Mortality in Rural India

An analytical framework is specified for understanding the determinants of infant mortality. It distinguishes between factors at three levels – village, household and individual – and arranges them in ascending order with respect to their proximity to infant mortality. Village and household-level factors are assumed to influence infant mortality indirectly by influencing at least one of the six individual-level factors. The present analysis of the data aggregated at the state level clearly demonstrates the importance of both medical and non-medical factors for explaining the observed regional differences in infant mortality in rural India. The percentage of births attended by trained medical personnel and poverty, are the two important determinants of regional variations in neo-natal mortality; and the village-level availability of medical facilities and the extent of triple vaccination are the two important determinants of post-neo-natal mortality. The influence of adult women's literacy on infant mortality is explained by better medical care at birth, and preventive and curative medical care during the post-neo-natal period. Medical factors have been shown to be slightly more important than non-medical factors. This suggests that it might be possible to reduce the high level of infant mortality currently prevalent in many states in India by simple preventive medical interventions.     

低生育水平下我国生育率转变影响机制的地区差异——来自90年代省级面板数据的经验研究

本文利用我国1990—2000年各地区总和生育率、社会经济发展水平和计划生育执行力度的面板数据,分别对东部特大城市、东部地区、中部地区和西部地区进行了实证分析。发现：计划生育政策对各地区生育率的降低都起到了重要的作用;同时,东部地区（包括特大城市）较高的经济、社会发展水平显著的降低了总和生育率,而经济较为落后的中、西部地区,这种作用不明显。     

A Decade of Sub-national Pro-poor Growth in Pakistan

The literature on subjective well-being has highlighted the negative effects associated with the restrictions and inequality imposed by the hukou system on China’s rural population. However, quantifying the cost of holding a rural hukou has generally been challenging because it can reflect unobserved individual characteristics related to educational and occupational choices. Thanks to RUMiC, a new longitudinal database on China, this limitation can be overcome by exploiting exogenous changes in hukou status due to land expropriation. The results support that receiving an urban hukou substantially enhances subjective well-being within the household, especially for males. The results complement a growing literature on subjective well-being focusing on China.     

农村独生子女生育选择影响因素及测度研究——基于Multinomial Logistic模型实证分析

本文基于北京市昌平区的农村独生子女调查数据,利用效用最大化离散选择模型,对农村独生子女生育选择模式及影响因素进行了分析。文章不仅考察了个体因素、经济与社会政策因素对生育选择模式的影响,更重要的是从生育选择的预测概率、离散变化以及Odds Ratios等多角度对影响因素的重要程度、影响大小等进行了定量测度分析。并从中推断起决定作用的因素发生变化时,可能导致的生育意愿、计划与行为的改变,探讨独生子女生育选择对中国未来人口变动趋势产生的影响和政策意义。     

Secluded and Proximate Illiteracy: Comparing Situations

Triplot is used to portray the three-dimensional concepts – literate, proximate illiterate and secluded illiterate. Pictographic portrayal complemented with a method proposed to calculate distance between situations enhances comparison. Illustration with Indian data explains change over time, rural-urban divide, and social gap.     

Fertility in Larsmo: The Effect of Laestadianism

Larsmo is a small municipality on the West coast of Finland with an exceptional fertility development due to the presence of a revivalist movement, Laestadianism, which is opposed to contraception. About 40 per cent of the population are Laestadians. Laestadians do not cohabit outside formal marriage, and the rule of pre-marital sexual abstinence seems to be observed. Within marriage, fertility seems to be unrestricted with respect to the first child, but an increasing proportion of Laestadians have begun to practise family planning, lengthen birth intervals, and restrict their families to three or four children. There remains, however, an inner group which appears to procreate without restriction. Since mortality is very low, a total fertility of six births per woman corresponds to a net reproduction of about 2.9, which is among the highest documented after 1970.Fertility in Larsmo has traditionally been high, and we expected that the presence of pro-natalist Laestadians would tend to increase the fertility of non-Laestadians as well. However, the demographic behaviour of non-Laestadians in most respects resembles that of the Finnish population as a whole, although extra-marital cohabitation seems to be rarer, since almost all the children born are legitimate.     

The International Multidimensional Fertility Index: The European Case

We propose an index to measure the degree of ability or desire of the population in a given country to have children, via an analysis of certain factors that may have a positive or negative influence on the fertility rate of that country. Using data for the twenty-eight countries of the European Union, and Principal Components Analysis, we construct the International Multidimensional Fertility Index as a combination of four dimensions: (1) Economy and family, (2) Attitudes and habits, (3) Work–Life Balance, and (4) Policy, along with nineteen distinct variables. We find that Denmark, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg are among the countries with the highest value of the index, and they also have high fertility rates within the EU. At the other end of the spectrum, Latvia, Cyprus, and Greece, are ranked in the last positions according to our index, countries that also present low values in their fertility rates. We also find a positive correlation between the value of our index and country fertility rates, an indication that our index may be capturing country differences in the conditions for bearing children, with higher values of the index indicating better conditions for childbirth and childrearing. To the extent that international data becomes available, our methodology will allow for the construction of international rankings, helpful in identifying cross-country differences in the conditions for fertility.     

Cambodia's Fertility Transition: The Dynamics of Contemporary Childbearing

Cambodia is undergoing a fertility transition, with the total fertility rate falling from 6.7 before 1970 to 3.0 in 2010. This study is the first to examine the contemporary context of childbearing in Cambodia and the drivers of this transition, analyzing the articulations of men and women and the rationales behind their fertility intentions and behavior. Findings are derived from 21 months of ethnographic fieldwork in urban and rural settings in Siem Reap. The article explains how patterns of reproduction are shaped by the specific context and social organization, the political economy, gender relations, and kinship system. In Cambodia, changes in employment conditions, agricultural systems, and living arrangements create new motivations that in turn affect fertility decisions. In post‐conflict Cambodia rationales related to lineage continuation and the effects of the Khmer Rouge period also emerge as important influences.