Family Life History and Late Mid‐Life Mortality in Norway

Using data on all Norwegians born 1935–68, we analyze the associations between mortality and a combined indicator of fertility and marital or partnership status and history. The focus is on ages 40–73 and the years 1980–2008 (30 million person‐years of observations and 117,000 deaths). Among men in first marriages, the childless have 36 percent higher mortality than those with two or more children. The corresponding figure for women is 61 percent. The never‐married have higher mortality and are differentiated even more by parenthood status. Thus, childless never‐married men and women have mortality three times as high as those who are married and have two or more children. The apparent advantage associated with having at least two children is smallest among men who divorced before their oldest child's tenth birthday. Having step‐children has no association with mortality for those without natural children but is associated with higher mortality among the parous.     

Falling Short of Highest Life Expectancy: How Many Americans Might Have Been Alive in the Twentieth Century?

Life expectancy at birth in the United States during the twentieth century was lower than in many other highly developed countries. We investigate how this mortality disadvantage in the last 100 years translates into the number of hypothetical lives lost and their sex and age structure. We estimate the hypothetical US population if it had experienced in each decade since 1900 the mortality level of the country with the then highest life expectancy and compare the results to the actual figures in 2000. By 2000, the number of additional people who could have been alive had the mortality levels in the United States been as low as those in countries with the highest life expectancy was 66 million. This number is distributed equally between males and females. Suboptimal mortality at reproductive ages is crucial for the cumulative effect of potential lives lost, resulting from premature deaths of women who could still become first‐time mothers or bear additional children. Out of the 66 million additional persons who could have been alive in 2000, 45 million are attributable to those indirect deaths. Although the differences in the composition of the population by sex and age under the two mortality regimes are minor, the majority of people who might have been alive—54 million—were of working age or younger.     

The cocos-keeling islands: A demographic laboratory

The Cocos Islands, which are situated in the Indian Ocean approximately halfway between Colombo and Fremantle, were first peopled early in the nineteenth century and were gradually developed as a very isolated coconut plantation with a labour force consisting partly of persons of Malay stock descended from the original group of settlers and partly of Bantamese contract labourers from Java. As the Cocos-born population increased in size, the dependence on contract labour decreased and, before the end of the century, all immigration ceased. The 1947 Malay population of the islands was about 1,800.

The islands are fascinating from a demographer's point of view because there was a virtually complete registration of live births, deaths and marriages and a partial registration of stillbirths. With these registration records it was possible to construct the life history of every individual from birth, through infancy and childhood to marriage, and thence through fatherhood or motherhood to death.

The picture revealed by an analysis of these records is that of a population with very high fertility and with mortality at a high level before the first World war and at a medium level after that war. Crude birth rates varied between 50 and 60 per thousand population during the period 1888 to 1947. Crude death rates were between 30 and 40 per thousand population until 1912 but under 2.0 per thousand population after 1918.

Most Cocos girls married before reaching the age of 20 and there were an average of between eight and nine live births per woman living through the childbearing period. There was a steady decline in the average number of live births with advancing age at marriage from age 16 onwards. A significantly high proportion of those dying in the middle of the childbearing period had never married, but the fertility of those marrying at an early age (14, 15 and 16) and dying before reaching the age of 36 was slightly higher than that of those who married at a similar age and survived. Women who survived to the age of 55 were of higher fertility than those who died between the ages of 40 and 55. An analysis of birth intervals revealed significant differences (a) between birth intervals after a stillbirth or after a live birth in which the child died in early infancy, and birth intervals after a live birth in which the offspring survived for longer than 0.4 years, and (b) between the interval from first to second birth and the subsequent birth intervals. There was a difference of almost exactly a year between the average birth interval after a stillbirth or live birth ending in a neo-natal death and the average birth interval after the birth of a child surviving to age 2; there was a similar difference of a year between corresponding median birth intervals.

From 1888 to 1912 infant mortality was well above 300 per thousand. After 1918 infant mortality averaged rather under 100 infant deaths per 1,000 live births. The reduction in infant mortality rates was accompanied by an increase in the mortality of children aged 1 to 4, and the heavy incidence of mortality at these ages after 1918 is the most striking feature of the analysis of mortality by age. Whilst mortality in infancy fell much more heavily on males than on females, early childhood mortality was much higher in Cocos for girls than for boys. The life table computed for the period 1918 to 1947 indicated a life expectancy of about 50 years for males and 47 years for females.     

Verification of the ages of supercentenarians in the United States: Results of a matching study

Unprecedented declines in mortality among the very old have led to the emergence of "true" supercentenarians (persons aged 110 and over). The ages of these individuals have been well-documented in European countries with a history of birth registration, but have not been systematically studied in the United States, which lacks similar documentation and where the inaccuracy of age reporting has been an issue. To verify age, we linked records from the Social Security Administration for close to 700 individuals who died from 1980 to 1999 purportedly at ages 110 and older to records of the U.S. censuses of 1880 and 1900, conducted when these individuals were children. This group was a residual group from an earlier file that was reduced by the SSA after data checks that eliminated incorrect records. The results of the matched records for the residual file indicate that over 90% of the whites were accurately reported as supercentenarians, but only half of the blacks appeared to have attained age 110. The verification of age shows that the United States has more "true" supercentenarians than do other nations.     

Reproductive patterns and child mortality in guatemala

In this paper, we investigate the association of child mortality with maternal age, parity, birth spacing, and socioeconomic status, in a sample of Guatemalan children who were included in a public health intervention program. Our results indicate that maternal age, birth order, and the length of the previous and following birth intervals all have a significant impact on the risk of child mortality and that these associations cannot be accounted for by differences in breastfeeding, socioeconomic status, or the survival status of the previous child.     

The Effects of Intrauterine Malnutrition on Birth and Fertility Outcomes: Evidence From the 1974 Bangladesh Famine

This article uses the Bangladesh famine of 1974 as a natural experiment to estimate the impact of intrauterine malnutrition on sex of the child and infant mortality. In addition, we estimate the impact of malnutrition on post-famine pregnancy outcomes. Using the 1996 Matlab Health and Socioeconomic Survey (MHSS), we find that women who were pregnant during the famine were less likely to have male children. Moreover, children who were in utero during the most severe period of the Bangladesh famine were 32 % more likely to die within one month of birth compared with their siblings who were not in utero during the famine. Finally, we estimate the impacts of the famine on subsequent pregnancy outcomes. Controlling for pre-famine fertility, we find that women who were pregnant during the famine experienced a higher number of stillbirths in the post-famine years. This increase appears to be driven by an excess number of male stillbirths.     

Demographic Determinants of Infant and Early Child Mortality: A Comparative Analysis

In this paper we examine the relative importance of a number of demographic determinants of infant and early child mortality using information from 39 World Fertility Survey countries. We include sex of the child, age of the mother at the time of the birth, birth order, mother's educational level and a number of indicators of spacing of adjacent births among the correlates of chances of survival for children below the age of five years. Mortality of firstborn children and of those born to teenage mothers is shown to be higher than average; that of later children and those of older mothers was not much higher than average, once other factors are controlled. Effects of poor birth-spacing persist even after other factors have been controlled, and are similar where a sib was born during the two years preceding the birth of the child, regardless of the survival status of that sib; however, mortality was higher when that sib had died, due to increased familial risks of mortality. Rapid subsequent births also raise mortality for their earlier sibs. The findings are generally remarkably consistent in a wide range of countries and associated mortality conditions, although attention is drawn to a few interesting geographically clustered exceptions which deserve further investigation. The study leaves little room for doubt that poor child-spacing is clearly linked to decreased survival chances.     

Age-parity-specific birth rates and birth probabilities from census or survey data on own children

The ‘own-children’ method is a census- or survey-based reverse-survival technique for estimating age-specific birth rates for years previous to enumeration. In this paper it is extended to estimate birth rates and birth probabilities by parity as well as by age. The refined method is tested for accuracy by comparing ‘own-children’ estimates of age-parity-specific birth probabilities for the United States in 1969 with parallel estimates obtained by the method used in Vital Statistics of the United States. The ‘own-children’ estimates give relatively lower values at ages 15-19 and higher values at ages above 40, but compare well in between. The discrepancies are probably due mainly to adoption of illegitimate children of young mothers by older women. The ‘own-children’ estimate of the total fertility rate is very close to the published vital statistics estimate.     

Maternal Age and Child Development

Although the consequences of teen births for both mothers and children have been studied for decades, few studies have taken a broader look at the potential payoffs—and drawbacks—of being born to older mothers. A broader examination is important given the growing gap in maternal ages at birth for children born to mothers with low and high socioeconomic status. Drawing data from the Children of the NLSY79, our examination of this topic distinguishes between the value for children of being born to a mother who delayed her first birth and the value of the additional years between her first birth and the birth of the child whose achievements and behaviors at ages 10–13 are under study. We find that each year the mother delays a first birth is associated with a 0.02 to 0.04 standard deviation increase in school achievement and a similar-sized reduction in behavior problems. Coefficients are generally as large for additional years between the first and given birth. Results are fairly robust to the inclusion of cousin and sibling fixed effects, which attempt to address some omitted variable concerns. Our mediational analyses show that the primary pathway by which delaying first births benefits children is by enabling mothers to complete more years of schooling.     

Demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand

Abstract Data from a national rural and urban sample survey are analysed in order to examine various demographic aspects of fertility in Thailand. Marital fertility rates found for Thailand are among the highest in Asia. Particularly noteworthy is the persistence of high fertility at older ages of childbearing for rural women. Cumulative fertility shows a pronounced relationship with age at marriage and current marital status. Women who marry at an older age or who experience disruption of their marriages are clearly more likely to have fewer children ever born. Differences in both current and cumulative fertility are strongly associated with residence. Rural women who constitute the vast majority of Thai women, experience the highest fertility, Bangkok-Thonburi women experience the lowest fertility and provincial urban women are characterized by an intermediate fertility level which is closer, however, to the experience of their counterparts in the capital than in the countryside. Rural-urban fertility differences are mitigated but by no means eliminated by differences in infant mortality. In both rural and urban areas a positive association between cumulative fertility and infant morality is evident. Breast-feeding, commonly practised for extended periods-among both rural and urban Thai women, undoubtedly serves to some extent as an intervening variable in this relationship. A comparison of current fertility with cumulative fertility strongly suggests that a decline in marital fertility has been under way recently among urban women, especially those residing in the capital, but not at all among rural women. Although it seems safe to assume that the urban fertility decline results in large part from an increasing use of contraception among urban women, those still in the reproductive ages who were using or had previously used birth control were characterized by higher cumulative fertility than women who had never practised contraception. Evidently couples resort to family planning only late in the family building process after they have already achieved or exceeded the number of children they wish to have.     

Effect of Conflict on Age at Marriage and Age at First Birth in Rwanda

Using Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey 2005 data, we estimate a Cox proportional hazard model to identify the determinants of age at marriage and age at first birth and whether these decisions were affected by conflict. We find that women living in clusters accounting for a larger proportion of sibling deaths in 1994, the year of the genocide, were more likely to marry later and have children later compared with those living in clusters accounting for a lower proportion of sibling deaths. Women living in regions with higher levels of under-five mortality were more likely to have their first child earlier compared with women living in regions with lower infant mortality. The age at marriage was probably affected by two reasons: the change in age structure and sex ratio of the population following the genocide, and the breakdown of kinship in the case of women who lost their siblings.     

Estimation Of The Birth Rate For The Congo Through Nonconventional Techniques

This paper attempts to produce a set of alternative estimates of birth rates for the Congo and for its main regions through nonconventional techniques. The main body of data used for this purpose is supplied by the demographic survey undertaken during 1955-57. Two types of information on fertility are produced by this survey: (1) births to women by age during the 12 months preceding the survey and (2) children-ever-born to women by age. The available data, while reliable in certain respects, are deficient in others. Thus, the reports on children born during the year preceding the survey are acceptably accurate for the children who have survived but are insufficient for the children who have died.The task was to make the best possible use of various reliable pieces of information directly or indirectly related to fertility, in order to produce some reasonably acceptable estimate of birth rate. One procedure consisted of correcting the reported birth rate for the omission of infant deaths; another procedure involved the adjustment of the reported birth rate with reference to the mean parity of women. In addition to these, an estimate of birth rate was derived by means of stable population technique from the proportion of children under 5 years of age.Three sets of estimates of birth rate, then, have been produced. They yielded a high agreement for the country as a whole, as well as for the provincial and district levels. These estimates were then compared with the proportion of childless women and the proportion of children-the latter having been derived from the records of "continuous registration of inhabitants," a source of information which is completely independent of the demographic survey of 1955-57. Again, a reasonable agreement has been found among all these estimates.Statistical evidence examined in this paper supports a birth rate of about 45 per 1,000 for the Congo. The analysis reveals a high regional variation in birth rate: from 20 per 1,000 (Bas Uele) to 60 per 1,000 (Kivu). This variation is consistent with the variation in sterility level as evidenced by the proportion of women never having had a live birth. The proportion of childlessness varies from 5 percent (Kivu) to about 40 percent (Bas Uele) for women past child-bearing age.     

Only children as adult women: Life course events and timing

A comparison between adult women who are only children and women who grew up with siblings is performed in relation to life course characteristics (events and timing), using a random sample of Canadian women (birth cohorts 1905–29 and 1930–44) surveyed, by telephone, in Vancouver and Victoria (total n of 1 251, with a response rate of approximately 60 percent). Initial analysis shows that female adult only children are less likely to have large families, more likely to marry and have their first child at older ages, more likely to attain high levels of education, and, among the younger cohort, more likely to cohabitate at younger ages. However, more refined analysis reveals that differences are, for the most part, the result of family of origin variables associated with sibsize rather than the result of only child status per se. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for research within the life course perspective, and in the light of possible changes accompanying population aging.     

Birth spacing and child mortality in bangladesh and the Philippines

This analysis uses data from Bangladesh and the Philippines to demonstrate that children who are born within 15 months of a preceding birth are 60 to 80% more likely than other children to die in the first two years of life, once the confounding effects of prematurity are removed. The risks associated with short conception intervals are confined to children who are also high birth order; they persist in the presence of controls for prior familial child mortality, breast-feeding, mother's age, and socioeconomic status. In Bangladesh but not in the Philippines, these effects are confined to the neonatal period.     

Changes in fertility patterns can improve child survival in Southeast Asia

This analysis of 1988 Philippine Demographic Survey data provides information on the direct and indirect effects of several major determinants of childhood mortality in the Philippines. Data are compared to rates in Indonesia and Thailand. The odds of infant mortality in the Philippines are reduced by 39% by spacing children more than two years apart. This finding is significant because infant mortality rates have not declined over the past 20 years. Child survival is related to the number of children in the family, the spacing of the children, the mother's age and education, and the risks of malnutrition and infection. Directs effects on child survival are related to infant survival status of the preceding child and the length of the preceding birth interval, while key indirect or background variables are maternal age and education, birth order, and place of residence. The two-stage causation model is tested with data on 13,716 ever married women aged 15-49 years and 20,015 index children born between January 1977 and February 1987. Results in the Philippine confirm that maternal age, birth order, mortality of the previous child, and maternal education are directly related to birth interval, while mortality of the previous child, birth order, and maternal educational status are directly related to infant mortality. Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines all show similar explanatory factors that directly influence infant mortality. The survival status of the preceding child is the most important predictor in all three countries and is particularly strong in Thailand. This factor acts through the limited time interval for rejuvenation of mother's body, nutritional deficiencies, and transmission of infectious disease among siblings. The conclusion is that poor environmental conditions increase vulnerability to illness and death. There are 133% greater odds of having a short birth interval among young urban women than among older rural women. There is a 29% increase in odds for second parity births compared to third or higher order parities. Maternal education is a strong predictor of infant survival only in the Philippines and Indonesia. Adolescent pregnancy is a risk only in Indonesia. Socioeconomic factors are not as important as birth interval, birth order, and maternal education in determining survival status.     

Happiness: Before and After the Kids

Understanding how having children influences parents’ subjective well-being (“happiness”) has great potential to explain fertility behavior. We study parental happiness trajectories before and after the birth of a child, using large British and German longitudinal data sets. We account for unobserved parental characteristics using fixed-effects models and study how sociodemographic factors modify the parental happiness trajectories. Consistent with existing work, we find that happiness increases in the years around the birth of a first child and then decreases to before-child levels. Moreover, happiness increases before birth, suggesting that the trajectories may capture not only the effect of the birth but also the broader process of childbearing, which may include partnership formation and quality. Sociodemographic factors strongly modify this pattern. Those who have children at older ages or who have more education have a particularly positive happiness response to a first birth; and although having the first two children increases happiness, having a third child does not. The results, which are similar in Britain and Germany, suggest that having up to two children increases happiness, and mostly for those who have postponed childbearing. This pattern is consistent with the fertility behavior that emerged during the second demographic transition and provides new insights into low and late fertility.     

Fertility Decline,Girls’ Well-being,and Gender Gaps in Children’s Well-being in Poor Countries

The influences of recent dramatic declines in fertility on girls’ and boys’ well-being in poorer countries are understudied. In panels of 67–75 poorer countries, using 152–185 Demographic and Health Surveys spanning 1985–2008, we examined how declining total fertility and women’s increasing median age at first birth were associated with changes in girls’ well-being and gender gaps in children’s well-being, as reflected in their survival, nutrition, and access to preventive healthcare. In adjusted random-effects models, these changes in fertility were associated with gains in girls’ survival at ages 1–4 years, vaccination coverage at ages 12–23 months, and nutrition at 0–36 months (for women’s later first childbearing). Declining total fertility was associated with similar gains for boys and girls with respect to vaccination coverage but intensified gender gaps in mortality at ages 1–4 years and malnutrition at ages 0–36 months, especially in higher-son-preference populations. Later increases in women’s median age at first birth—reflecting more equitable gender norms—were associated with declines in these gaps. Promoting equitable investments in children through family planning programs in higher-fertility societies is warranted.     

Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30–74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938–60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.     

Sweden faces zero population growth

In this discussion of Sweden as it approaches zero population growth, focus is on the following: population growth in perspective, fertility trends (childbearing concentrated and cohort versus period fertility), marital status (non-marital cohabitation, out-of-wedlock births, and divorce), women's changing status (increasing education and increasing employment), constraints and supports for women's dual role (family allowances and housing), birth control (contraceptive methods and practice and abortion), mortality trends, changing age structure and the elderly (average population age and proportion of elderly and cost of elderly support), international migration (from emigration to immigration and demographic impact of immigration), immigration policy, recent population debate (immigration issues and facing zero population growth). Since 1900 the primary features of Sweden's demographic history are a continuing decline in the birth rate to very low levels -- relieved by some upward movement in the 1940s and 1960s -- and a marked shift in the migration balance from emigration to immigration. It is almost entirely because of immigration that Sweden's population growth rate has not yet turned negative. If Swedish women were to continue to bear children at the rate that all women in the reproductive ages actually did in 1978, each women would end up with an average well below the level necessary to exactly replace each adult in the population leaving migration out, an annual total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman would have to be sustained for births and deaths to be in balance under the low mortality conditions prevaling in Sweden.     

Widows,Sons, and Old-Age Security in Rural Maharashtra: A Comment on Vlassoff

In the present paper, the author argues that both structures and levels of childhood mortality patterns have important implications for family economies in historical and in developing societies. Where mortality is high or when its neonatal component is low relatively to the probabilities of death at higher ages, economies tend to suffer because parental investments in bearing and rearing the children who die are greater. These investments can best be measured in terms of time, especially mothers' time. In unfavourable mortality regimes, a far greater part of a woman's activity is dedicated to children who eventually die, thus limiting the time and energy available for other productive activities. In this way, adverse infant mortality patterns can be seen as an independent variable, an important contributing factor to the vicious circle of poverty and underdevelopment.