Sexual risk-taking in the slums of Nairobi,Kenya, 1993-8

Relatively less attention has been paid to reproductive health problems facing deprived urban residents than to those facing rural residents in the sub-Saharan Africa. This is probably because the majority of Africans live in rural areas, where they are presumed to have poorer medical, educational, and other social services. Yet, the unprecedented rate of urbanization and the accompanying disproportionate growth in the proportion of poor city residents pose new challenges for health care in the region. This study examines differences in sexual behaviour between slum residents and non-slum residents in Nairobi city. The results show that slum residents start sexual intercourse at earlier ages, have more sexual partners, and are less likely than other city residents to know of or adopt preventive measures against contracting HIV/AIDS. The findings highlight the need to treat slum residents as a sub-population uniquely vulnerable to reproductive health problems and to expend more resources in slum settings.     

广州、北京、上海三大城市死亡水平的对比分析

本文重点分析了广州、北京、上海三大城市主要年份的粗死亡率、婴儿死亡率以及老年人死亡率和预期寿命的差异,然后从经济发展水平、医疗卫生条件和人口年龄结构三个方面分析了影响其死亡水平的原因,并指出了其主要原因。     

Trends in senescent life expectancy

The distinction between senescent and non-senescent mortality proves to be very valuable for describing and analysing age patterns of death rates. Unfortunately, standard methods for estimating these mortality components are lacking. The first part of this paper discusses alternative methods for estimating background and senescent mortality among adults and proposes a simple approach based on death rates by causes of death. The second part examines trends in senescent life expectancy (i.e., the life expectancy implied by senescent mortality) and compares them with trends in conventional longevity indicators between 1960 and 2000 in a group of 17 developed countries with low mortality. Senescent life expectancy for females rises at an average rate of 1.54 years per decade between 1960 and 2000 in these countries. The shape of the distribution of senescent deaths by age remains relatively invariant while the entire distribution shifts over time to higher ages as longevity rises.     

我国人口预期寿命分析与预测

本文通过对我国人口年龄和性别构成现状的分析,运用蒋庆琅法利用2003年我国人口抽样和死亡率资料编制当年的简略寿命表,估算我国现阶段人口的预期寿命。接着,对我国自解放至今人口预期寿命的变化及其原因进行分析,并最终利用我国自第四次人口普查至第五次人口普查阶段人口预期寿命增长率等相关资料,对我国人口2001-2020年的预期寿命作出预测,得出今后我国人口预期寿命将继续增长,但增长率依年度的推移而递减。     

中国第五次人口普查全国人口死亡水平间接估计

本文运用几种常见的死亡水平间接估计方法 ,以中国第五次人口普查原始数据为基础 ,估测了五普人口粗死亡率、死亡漏报水平和人口平均预期寿命。     

The narrowing sex differential in life expectancy in high-income populations: Effects of differences in the age pattern of mortality

Using data from the Human Mortality Database for 29 high-income national populations (1751–2004), we review trends in the sex differential in e(0). The widening of this gap during most of the 1900s was due largely to a slower mortality decline for males than females, which previous studies attributed to behavioural factors (e.g., smoking). More recently, the gap began to narrow in most countries, and researchers tried to explain this reversal with the same factors. However, our decomposition analysis reveals that, for the majority of countries, the recent narrowing is due primarily to sex differences in the age pattern of mortality rather than declining sex ratios in mortality: the same rate of mortality decline produces smaller gains in e(0) for women than for men because women's deaths are less dispersed across age (i.e., survivorship is more rectangular).     

中国高龄老人健康预期寿命研究

用隶属等级 (GradeofMembership ,GOM)模型将反映 1998年被访高龄老人不同健康维度的 5 0个变量进行综合得到健康、比较健康、功能受限、体弱多病、极度虚弱五个纯类。用这五个纯类将高龄老人预期寿命进行了分析     

Quantifying the Dynamics of Chinese Labor Force: A Life Table Approach

Based on the recent three population censuses of China, in this article, we used life table technique to compute the expected years of working life for the Chinese labor force in the primary, secondary and tertiary industries in 1982, 1990 and 2000. We found, after two decades of economic reform, the expected years of working life in the primary industry decreased from 32.04 and 26.74 years for males and females in 1982 to 27.07 and 26.12 years, respectively, in 2000. For the tertiary industry, the expected years of working life increased from 5.70 and 2.94 years for males and females in 1982 to 8.05 and 5.66 years in 2000, respectively. For the secondary industry, there was virtually no change in terms of the expected years of working life.     

Modeling Quality-Adjusted Life Expectancy Loss Resulting from Tobacco use in the United States

Purpose  To describe the development of a model for estimating the effects of tobacco use upon Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and to estimate the impact of tobacco use on health outcomes for the United States (US) population using the model. Method  We obtained estimates of tobacco consumption from 6 years of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). In addition, NHIS data were used to impute the Quality of Well-Being (QWB) Scale using a new methodology known as QWBX1. The QWB places health status on a continuum ranging from death (0.0) to full functioning without symptoms (1.0). The method allows the adjustment of life expectancy for reduced quality of life associated with health conditions. NHIS data were matched to the National Death Index for 14,464 deaths occurring by December 31, 1997. The analysis is limited to adults between the ages of 18 and 70 years. Results  Quality of Well-Being scores were broken down by age and for six smoking categories: (1) non-smokers, (2) those who smoke 1–10 cigarettes per day, (3) 11–20 cigarettes per day, (4) 21–30 cigarettes per day, and (5) 31–40 cigarettes per day, and (6) 40 or greater cigarettes per day. There was a systematic relationship between current tobacco use and health-related quality of life at each point along the age spectrum and there was a clear and systematic separation of quality-adjusted life expectancy by number of cigarettes smoked per day. Teenagers who continue to smoke loose 3.5 QALYs between ages 18 and 70 in comparison to non-smokers. A greater portion in the loss in QALE is attributable to quality of life than to shorten life expectancy. Conclusions  The overall goal of Healthy People 2010 is to increase Years of Healthy Life (or QALE) in the United States. Each year, tobacco use results in hundreds of thousands of quality-adjusted life years lost. Combined models of morbidity and mortality incorporating a range of tobacco consumption levels are required to best represent the impact of tobacco use. Supported by a Grant 11RT-0243 from the Californian Tobacco Related Disease Research Program (TRDRP)     

Sex preference for children in a Meifu Li community in Hainan,China

Sex preferences for children are contingent on institutional and economic contexts, including family system. While the patrilineal joint family system of the Han Chinese tends to devalue daughters, the family systems of many of China's southern minorities are conducive to female autonomy and more equal sex preferences. The Li of Hainan Island provide an example. We examined household registers and surveyed women in a relatively isolated highland township inhabited by the Meifu, a Li sub-group. The Meifu depend largely on swidden agriculture, permit considerable sexual freedom to adolescent females, and, as expected, have more equal sex ratios among their children than other Hainan populations. There was a tendency for a preference for males in the one hamlet in the community with an exceptional endowment of irrigated land, suggesting that sex preferences are sensitive to local economic circumstances.     

The Patterns of Disability in the Peripheral Neighborhoods of Ouagadougou,Burkina Faso,and the Male–Female Health‐Survival Paradox

Disability is a crucial health and social concern in sub‐Saharan Africa, where a high prevalence of disabling diseases is compounded with insufficient care provision. There is a need for detailed analysis of the disability patterns. We provide a gender‐specific picture for the population in peripheral Ouagadougou (Burkina‐Faso), based on six disability dimensions following the United Nations’ recommendations. We computed disability‐free life expectancy (LE) using the Health and Demographic Surveillance System (Ouaga HDSS) (n = 1 902). Women have a longer partial LE in the 20–79 age range (+3.3 years), half of this LE being spent with a disability, versus 31% of the LE for men. Limitations in mobility, cognition, and eyesight occur in midadulthood and result in a considerable disadvantage for women in the number of years with these limitations. These findings highlight disability patterns that are detrimental to social participation and claim for better screening and care, especially for women.     

出生人口性别比失衡的地域差异分析——基于对陕西的调查

出生人口性别比失衡问题从上世纪80年代开始成为陕西人口发展中的一个实际存在的问题．地域差异是其中的一个重要表现。本文为了揭示陕西不同区域的社会环境差异对人口出生性别比失衡的影响．通过问卷抽样的方法,获取陕西关中、陕北、陕南三大区域公众的生育文化和观念差异的第一手资料。从导致出生人口性别比失衡的性别选择角度,根据社会环境-性别选择需要或动机-选择-目标,分析陕西三大地域生育文化的社会环境差异,揭示影响不同区域出生人口性别比作用机制。     

The choice among past trends as a basis for the prediction of future trends in old-age mortality

We explored the extent to which projections of future old-age mortality trends differ when different projection bases are used. For seven European countries, four alternative sets of annual rates of mortality change were estimated with age–period log-linear regression models, and subsequently applied to age-specific all-cause mortality rates (80+) in 1999 to predict mortality levels up to 2050. On average, up to 2050, e80 is predicted to increase further by 2.33 years among men and 4.03 years among women. Choosing a historical period of 25 instead of 50 years results in higher predicted gains in e80 for men but lower gains for women. Choosing non-smoking-related mortality instead of all-cause mortality leads to higher gains for women and mixed results for men. In all alternatives there is a strong divergence of predicted mortality levels between the countries. Future projections should be preceded by a thorough study of past trends and their determinants.     

新疆塔塔尔族人口死亡研究

长期以来,对塔塔尔族人口的研究很少有人涉猎。从第五次人口普查的相关数据,可以分析出塔塔尔族人口的死亡水平、影响因素以及死亡原因。     

The Effect of HIV-Discordance on the Sexual Lives of Gay and Bisexual Men in Mexico City

Drawing upon 44 in-depth interviews with men in HIV-discordant gay couples (only one man is HIV-positive) in Mexico, I explore whether being aware of the risk of primary infection or re-infection leads to protected sex. The results have policy implications, as the findings show that a significant number of men have participated in unprotected sex. An explanation is that these men perceive unprotected sex as an expression of commitment to their relationship. On the other hand, those who reported always using protection during sex perceive that guarding each other's health provides mutual benefit and shows their commitment to their relationship.     

新疆俄罗斯族人口的数量变动与分布变迁研究（1949-2000年）

本文根据历次全国人口普查资料和相关文献,以1949～2000年新疆俄罗斯族人口变动与分布为研究对象,对50年来新疆俄罗斯族的人口变动及成因、地域分布与城镇分布的历史变迁进行了考察分析。     

Decompression of Period Old-Age Mortality: When Adjusted for Bias,the Variance in the Ages at Death Shows Compression

Formal derivations and empirical evidence, in the framework of Fries-Kannisto's hypothesis, show that the indicators of mortality compression based on age-at-death distribution, left-censored at a fixed old age, may be subject to a bias toward showing mortality decompression in the case of a mortality decline. The previously reported increasing variance in ages at death above fixed old ages in developed countries was mainly the effect of a mortality shift, not decompression. When adjusted for this bias, the indicators of variance in ages at death show a compression of period mortality.     

IQ, Birth Weight, and Number of Sexual Partners in White, African American, and Mixed Race Adolescents

Mean levels of three characteristics—verbal IQ, number of sexual partners, and birth weight—were examined in African American, White (European-descent) Americans, and Black/White mixed race American adolescents. The sample came from Wave 1 of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. The mean age was 16 years. According to their interviewers, the mixed race children had an African American physical appearance. The African American adolescents had a lower birth weight, a lower verbal IQ, and a higher number of sexual partners than did White adolescents. For each characteristic, the mixed race mean fell between the means of the two parental populations. Design extensions were proposed that include: (1) directly genotyping for individual racial admixture, (2) including parents of the mixed race children, and (3) including their cousins.     

中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的分解研究

健康预期寿命是反映人群健康长寿的重要指标,健康预期寿命差异反映了一个国家或地区的健康不平等状况。利用多状态生命表分析了中国老年人口健康预期寿命在过去十余年间的趋势与变动,并通过夏普利值分解法测算了人口社会学等11类因素对老年人口健康预期寿命差异的具体贡献值。得到以下四项重要研究结论:第一,从2005年到2018年,中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的程度略有增加,女性、农村群体相比对应群体差距始终较高;泰尔指数分解发现,组内不平等(而非组间不平等)是造成上述差异的主要原因;老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异呈现出高龄老人缩小而低龄老人扩大的趋势。第二,婚姻状况是健康预期寿命变动最重要的影响因素,但影响程度呈现逐年下降趋势,反之,受教育程度的影响在逐年上升;进一步将11类影响因素归类后发现:"个体特征"是最重要的影响因素,"经济因素"和"行为因素"的重要性次之,"环境因素"的影响最小。第三,上述影响因素对中国老年人口健康预期寿命的影响总体呈上升趋势,分城乡、分性别后依然呈现出相同的特征。最后,各因素在不同城乡、性别、婚姻状态的群体中的影响存在异质性。